[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

While I haven't watched any tv shows or movies in months, I've still gotten bombarded by endless political ads that know where I live.

Trump ads: banners flashing variations on "Immigrants are going to kill your family!" with graphic Kamala Harris cackling maniacally.

Kamala Harris ads: the one they've been spamming the most doesn't even mention her. Only way you can tell it's an ad for the Democrats is that the voiceover---a deep male voice---has a barely noticeable American Blaccent. The ad goes something like: "Your vote is private, but whether you vote is public knowledge. Your neighbors can look up whether you voted and beat the living shit out of you if you don't you lazy swollen leech get off your bloodsucking ass and vote or else, Filthadelphia!" (Okay, the second sentence there is more of a paraphrase...)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: Today, 05:13 PM

[JPK]

 Abyss, on 05 November 2024 - 02:29 PM, said:

Canada here, praying our basement tenants manage to not fnck this up (again).

I'm stateside in Oregon and hoping the exact same thing. Everyone I know claims to have have voted Harris and I believe them but due to location we only matter so much. It's really discouraging knowing that our future is held in the votes of a few fickle states.

[worry]

Tiste Simeon, on 05 November 2024 - 08:43 AM, said:

worry, on 05 November 2024 - 05:38 AM, said:

Early congrats to our future president elect, whoever she may turn out to be.

What makes you so hopeful?

I'm actually quite anxious today and it's not even my country, it's crazy.

I didn't name any names!

[Nicodimas]

/squints

Trump gonna landslide it's looking like.

The ballet count is 1.7 million Democrats didn't early vote ..which is staggering.Also down 1.4 million on women votes! Woah.


Some wild swings early
Arizona: Trump +8
North Carolina: Trump +9
Nevada: Trump +9
Pennsylvania: Even

Anyhow interesting to say the least . I of course did not vote for Trump, but understand why he would win after these last four years for sure.

Anyhow it's always interesting to see the swings of the election day!

Well at the end of day we are not our political afillation and we all hope for a better America rises.

(Note: I'm going off the early votes for context as I would think that should favor democrats, but definitely in for a wild ride of swings)

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: Today, 05:47 PM

[Abyss]

JPK, on 05 November 2024 - 05:26 PM, said:

Abyss, on 05 November 2024 - 02:29 PM, said:

Canada here, praying our basement tenants manage to not fnck this up (again).

I'm stateside in Oregon and hoping the exact same thing. Everyone I know claims to have have voted Harris and I believe them but due to location we only matter so much. It's really discouraging knowing that our future is held in the votes of a few fickle states.

At least yours is close. We pretty much already know who is going to win our next election up here.

[Lady Bliss]

It’s too early to call.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Nicodimas, on 05 November 2024 - 05:44 PM, said:

/squints

Trump gonna landslide it's looking like.

The ballet count is 1.7 million Democrats didn't early vote ..which is staggering.Also down 1.4 million on women votes! Woah.


Some wild swings early
Arizona: Trump +8
North Carolina: Trump +9
Nevada: Trump +9
Pennsylvania: Even

Anyhow interesting to say the least . I of course did not vote for Trump, but understand why he would win after these last four years for sure.

Anyhow it's always interesting to see the swings of the election day!

Well at the end of day we are not our political afillation and we all hope for a better America rises.

(Note: I'm going off the early votes for context as I would think that should favor democrats, but definitely in for a wild ride of swings)

That's been expected and already factored in to the odds. The Trump campaign has really been pushing early in-person voting, whereas Democrats have been promoting mail-in ballots.

The obvious aim is to give Trump an early lead---the "red mirage" from last time, only worse---so they can then claim voter fraud.

Forgot to mention before---regarding that "whether you vote is public information" ad---when I voted by mail in 2020 it never arrived. Mail was being stolen in Philadelphia and that's almost certainly what happened to my ballot. They caught at least some of the perpetrators, but still... I'm glad I used the drop box this time (and got email confirmation that my ballot was received). Will anyone ever try to call me out on it? "Yeah I was gonna come over for sex but you didn't vote in 2020"

They've been spamming a new version in the last few days. It uses the sandwich method. Happy voice: "DJs at the polls is turning election day into a party! ... Remember, your vote is private, but [voice gets deeper] whether you vote is public information. [voice gets higher pitched again] So come out and party (or else)!" and ends with video of a Black guy dancing with an big grin on his face.

Trumpublican ads: the Demonrats are a threat to your safety!

Democratic ads: vote or else we're gonna get you! Also, Kamala Harris is a really nice lady.

[Briar King]

Nervous wreck today…

[JPK]

Briar King, on 05 November 2024 - 06:49 PM, said:

Nervous wreck today…

I'm assuming you're still in Texas. Do you think Ted is gonna keep on keeping on or is this when he gets the boot?

[Briar King]

Bliss is TX. Im Louisiana.

[JPK]

Briar King, on 05 November 2024 - 07:20 PM, said:

Bliss is TX. Im Louisiana.

For some reason I remembered you as in TX. Sorry bout that.

[Briar King]

It’s cool I took refuge there for long periods of time in 2020 after hurricanes and in my active days posted lots from there. Probably part of that confusion.

[Lady Bliss]

JPK, on 05 November 2024 - 07:22 PM, said:

Briar King, on 05 November 2024 - 07:20 PM, said:

Bliss is TX. Im Louisiana.

For some reason I remembered you as in TX. Sorry bout that.

I plan on fleeing west as soon as I can. It’s a tight race on Cruz, but a lot of Californians have moved here. I just can’t handle the heat, politics, or lack of public transportation since I can’t drive.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

To celebrate his anniversary this year, Phil Haegele joined the back of a long line at a polling station with his wife on a warm autumn afternoon and waited to cast his ballot for Donald Trump.

It was the first time that Haegele, a 47-year-old plumber, cast an early ballot. [...] He [was] bombarded with "probably 50 text messages" encouraging him to come out and vote [early], so he did.

"A lot of the news agencies that we follow, they were saying they were trying to get as many Trump supporters to vote early, to try and ward off as much fraud as they could," he said.

[...] "I think it's going to be a blowout," Trump said. "I know they're going to cheat again."

'I feel very powerful and very scared': Pennsylvanians face pressure of voting in key swing state | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

We might actually get a decisive result today... from the voting that is, not the certification and other attempts to overturn the results.

Quote

close polls do not necessarily mean there will be a close result.

This may feel counterintuitive, but the fact is that we are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory, especially in the Electoral College.

The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be. - The New York Times

Quote

Top Pollster Predicts Time Election Result Will Be Clear in Event of Harris Victory

If Kamala Harris wins either North Carolina or Georgia, she's likely to win it all[...]

And with results from those crucial bellwether states expected to arrive late on Election Day, the election could have an unofficial winner as early as Tuesday—even if the final results won't come in for at least several more days [...]

Luntz predicted that if Donald Trump wins either Pennsylvania or Michigan, he'll win the election. Those states will take longer to call because election workers in Pennsylvania aren't allowed to start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, and in Michigan it varies by precinct.

"In the end, it's all about turnout," Luntz said.

Pollster Frank Luntz Predicts Time Election Result Will Be Clear in Event of Harris Victory

[Lady Bliss]

It’s still going to take time to count mail in ballots and handle recounts. We honestly won’t know till at least tomorrow, but probably not till the end of the week. If it looks like Kamala didn’t win tonight, count on her not conceding.

[Macros]

I still can't wrap my head around why anyone would vote for Trump

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Lady Bliss, on 05 November 2024 - 08:26 PM, said:

It's still going to take time to count mail in ballots and handle recounts. We honestly won't know till at least tomorrow, but probably not till the end of the week. If it looks like Kamala didn't win tonight, count on her not conceding.

If it's enough of a blowout we might know before the end of today. In terms of the statistics, that actually wouldn't be a huge surprise.

If it's close Trump will almost certainly declare himself the winner tonight. And if it's a blowout for Harris he'll say she obviously must have cheated massively because of how close the polls are and blah blah blah and of course he'll maintain that he really won and the House should give it to him.

Quote

Advisers urge Donald Trump to declare victory prematurely on election night

The consensus view is that Trump has nothing to lose by claiming he has won if he has a several-hundred-thousand-vote advantage in Pennsylvania or if his internal pollsters think a victory is plausible [...]

But even Trump's most pugnacious allies – including [... even! ] Steve Bannon [...] have suggested he hold off making a pronouncement if the race is any closer by the time he goes to bed, lest it makes him look foolish. [Oh no! He'd never do something like that...]

[...] His aides concede that if Trump decides he wants to declare, he will do as he pleases

Advisers urge Donald Trump to declare victory prematurely on election night | US elections 2024 | The Guardian