[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 19 December 2023 - 05:17 PM, said:

I was actually pondering this very question recently. Not that Trump has a large following that is not necessarily surprising but half the country? Even now?

I cannot think of one supposed accomplishment of his presidency and this should be the half of the equation that matters most. The economy today under Biden has unemployment at 3.7%, the lowest inflation in the developed world. Yes Trump supporters will all claim that they are struggling today and that there money took them further under trump.

Quote

From the standpoint of many on the left, [...] Trump did exactly two good things in office. He supported Operation Warp Speed[...] And [...] signed the First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal-justice bill that shortened federal prison terms, gave judges more latitude in sentencing, and provided educational programming to ease prisoners' eventual return to the outside world.

The Key to Unlocking Prison Reform - The Atlantic

Quote

Biden has, in terms of legislative achievements and official policy, presided over far greater change than his predecessor.

Two interrelated historical developments – the end of neoliberal hegemony and the end of the "end of history" – which marked the rise of [...] Trump's right-populism, are now being institutionalised in the outlook of a decidedly establishment, centre-left White House. Yet if Trump represented the revolutionary toppling of the neoliberal consensus, the Biden administration has not been able to consolidate anything approaching a new policy order or electoral realignment [...]

America After Neoliberalism - New Statesman

Trump as 'pragmatic (relative) moderate' on some salient issues:

Quote

Trump is now complaining that soaring stocks are 'making rich people richer' after bragging about the market's gains while president

Trump is now complaining that soaring stocks are 'making rich people richer' after bragging about the market's gains while president (yahoo.com)

... or petulant toddler...

Quote

Trump has asked advisers and others outside his campaign what they think of a Trump-Nikki Haley 2024 ticket[...] as Haley steadily ticks upwards in recent polling [...] But Trump allies are urging him [not to ...] Steve Bannon [...] leading a crowd in chants of "Fuck Her! Fuck Her!"

Trump Reportedly Asking Allies About Nikki Haley as Veep (thedailybeast.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 23 December 2023 - 03:54 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Guess who:

Quote

Merry Christmas to all, including Crooked Joe Biden’s ONLY HOPE, Deranged Jack Smith, the out of control Lunatic [...] Included also are World Leaders, both good and bad, but none of which are as evil and “sick” as the THUGS we have inside our Country who, with their [...] Woke Military, Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Iran, All Electric Car Lunacy, and so much more, are looking to destroy our once great USA. MAY THEY ROT IN HELL. AGAIN, MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Truth Details | Truth Social

Quote

[Marjorie Taylor Greene] Says She Got ‘Swatted’ at Home With Family on Christmas

The Georgia congresswoman said that she and her family were in “joyous spirits” despite the alleged incident.

Marjorie Taylor Greene Says She Got ‘Swatted’ at Home With Family on Christmas Day (thedailybeast.com)

... because they got lots of guns for Christmas, so they're ready for Revenge!

Oh and a very special message from... actually from a few weeks ago:

Quote

Nick Fuentes, the hate leader who dined at Mar-a-Lago last year with Donald Trump and Kanye West, is calling for a genocide of “perfidious Jews” and other non-Christians. “When we take power,” he said a Dec. 8 livestream, “they need to be given the death penalty, straight up.”

[...] Fuentes denies the Holocaust and has increasingly advocated for a violent form of Christian nationalism [...] “These people who are suppressing the name Christ, and suppressing Christianity,” he said, “they must be absolutely annihilated.”

Nick Fuentes Says 'Perfidious Jews' Should Be Executed (rollingstone.com)

In sweet baby Jesu's name!

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Trump on Truth Social:




All I want for Christmas is... REVENGE!

Quote

The word cloud comes from a [...] survey [...] that asked 1,000 likely voters to use one word to describe what both Trump and President Biden want out of a second term.

Trump shared his word cloud in an uncaptioned Truth Social post

Trump shares word cloud predicting "revenge," "dictatorship" if elected in 2024 (axios.com)

Quote

I completely agree with almost every pundit around who says there are just not five votes on the U.S. Supreme Court to affirm what just happened in Colorado. [...]

[...] the political question is just so enormous and horrifying. Donald Trump thrives in chaos. The chaos of one state being able to remove him from the ballot, even in just that state—but in every state in the country. The Texas lieutenant governor has already said that he wants to remove Joe Biden from the ballot in response to this. Do we think that the Texas lieutenant governor is going to listen to a Supreme Court that says "Don't count write-in votes for Donald Trump—we forbid you to do it"? Or that the House of Representatives is going to look at this and say, "Donald Trump ran a campaign even though he was forbidden from the ballot; he got so many write-in votes, they were counted, and we're just going to ignore that and allow Joe Biden to retain the presidency"?

It's chaos. The notion of this idea and the fruits of this idea would be chaos. Donald Trump thrives in chaos. I think that that alone is a reason why the Supreme Court—which, as you've noted many times before, is very much a political institution—is going to say pass.

The Supreme Court will take Trump's Colorado ballot disqualification. (slate.com)

OTOH I'm not aware of any state Supreme Court so completely unhinged from evidentiary standards that they'd declare Biden ineligible because of the 14th amendment for 'stealing the election' (... or maybe because he was born in Kenya?) even if most of the voters there (who also vote for the judges) at least claim to believe it....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 27 December 2023 - 03:39 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Possibly related:

Quote

The year of the revenge profit

[...] It's a tool other celebrities, influencers, and reality stars have used in 2023: creating economic opportunities for themselves via revenge.

[...] Take Taylor Swift — since embarking on the US leg of her Eras Tour and rerecording her albums to gain ownership over all her music, she's surged to billionaire status. Spotify declared her the most-streamed artist of the year, bringing her over $100 million in earnings. And with the public psychologically inclined to support "the underdog," making business off of revenge is a trend that's unlikely to stop anytime soon.

Welcome to the revenge economy.

Why We Love to Make Some Celebrities Even Richer: Welcome to the Revenge Economy (businessinsider.com)

OTOH Trump's been motivated by revenge for a very long time, according to clinical psychologist His Estranged Niece... but he also loves money. Maybe he's being more open about it than before? Now that (making lots of money off) revenge is trendy....

[Tsundoku]

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 December 2023 - 06:01 PM, said:

... but he also loves money.

Don't forget attention and validation.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

[House Speaker Mike] Johnson has deep ties to a movement called the New Apostolic Reformation [...]

[...] churches led by "apostles," people granted leadership authority by God. [...]

"Dominionism" is the idea that Christians should exercise authority, that the kingdom of God is to be established here on earth now, and it's the responsibility of Christians to bring that about. [...]

It has been mainstreamed as an idea, that Christians are waging a spiritual war against demonic forces in the world that have sometimes taken over their political enemies. [...]

[...] You have these people enacting all of these symbolic things that are reminiscent of very violent actions depicted in the Bible. Actions of genocide and destruction and overturning of rule.

[...] Leading to Jan. 6, they started getting these rallies going on—"Jericho marches." That refers to a story [...] in which God has called Joshua to go and circle the city of Jericho and destroy and kill everyone in the city. A lot of these leaders were present, preaching, screaming their heads off about "we're fighting the spiritual battle against Jezebel," [...]

You have these people there with their spiritual warfare rhetoric, with their view of dominion, constantly drilling that this is the way to go. They quote scripture: It is the violent that take the kingdom of God by force. [...] So that's why I think there's a danger to democracy.

January 6th insurrection anniversary: Mike Johnson and the radical evangelical Christians who encouraged the Capitol riot. (slate.com)

Quote

Trump received, and then tried to hide, millions in payments from America's foreign adversaries [while president, in violation of the emoluments clause of the Constitution]. Unlike in the [Biden] impeachment inquiry, which is premised on a suspicion that Republicans hope will turn up evidence, the receipts are here.

[...] Trump has taught Americans to tolerate brazen corruption—so long as it's his. To do this, Trump relies on two tactics. First, he does much of it out in the open, recognizing that voters tend to assume that only hidden deeds are nefarious. Second, he finds ways to slow-walk the release of the most damaging information, so that by the time the full picture is clear, the public has become almost inoculated—as though it had been out in the open all along.

[...] After Democrats won the House majority in 2018, they [...] subpoenaed Trump's accounting firm[... Trump] lost repeatedly, including at the Supreme Court [...] before an agreement was finally reached in September 2022 to provide documents to Congress. Two months later, Republicans won control of the House, and once in power began unwinding the agreement. Still, Democrats were able to obtain some documents, on which this report is based. [...]

Less than a month ago, Sean Hannity dreamed about just this scenario. "I cannot, for the life of me, you know, imagine what the media and how the country and the left in this country would be reacting if Donald Trump and the Trump Organization or the Trump family were making tens of millions of dollars from our top geopolitical foes like China and Russia[.] I can't imagine the left in this country not going insane, but lo and behold, here we are."

How Trump Taught America to Tolerate Brazen Corruption (msn.com)

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

three years to the day after supporters of Donald Trump attacked the U.S. Capitol building, election objecting Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) is the subject of an active police investigation into an alleged physical altercation with her ex-husband, Jayson Boebert, at a restaurant in her district Saturday night.

[...] Jayson Boebert had called the police to the Miner's Claim restaurant in Silt, claiming that he was a "victim of domestic violence."

Jayson Boebert [said] the details of the altercation on American Muckrakers was accurate and that his ex-wife had "punched" him in the face multiple times. [...] also purported to have a witness to the events and said that he took back his claim that police were too aggressive with him[...] he [said] was going to phone the police and ask them to call off the investigation.

Quote

restaurant has been flooded with tongue-in-cheek reviews [...] "Food is fantastic and if you're lucky Lauren Boebert will punch you in the face!"

Lauren Boebert Fight Restaurant Flooded With Mocking Reviews (newsweek.com)

Quote

Trump Shares Bizarre Video Declaring: 'God Made Trump'

[...] declaring that God made him to lead the country.

Trump Shares Bizarre Video Declaring: 'God Made Trump' (businessinsider.com)

From the video:


[quote]
God said, [...]

I need somebody who can shape an ax, but wield a sword
[...]

Who will not be afraid or terrified of the wolves when they attack,

[...]

A shepherd to mankind who won't ever leave or forsake them
I need the most diligent worker to follow the path

and remain strong in faith

and know the belief of God

and country

somebody who's willing to drill

[...] and finish a hard week's work

by attending church on Sunday

[...]

'Dad, let's make America great again'
[/quote]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 08 January 2024 - 05:53 PM

[Lady Bliss]

That’s truly frightening. What does he mean about drilling? He keeps saying that.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

New York Times:

Quote

A 'National and Global Maelstrom' Is Pulling Us Under

[...] wrote to a range of scholars, asking whether the nation has reached a point of no return.

The responses varied widely, but the level of shared pessimism was striking.

[... "]I am no longer confident there is the necessary desire and ability to make this country succeed. As a result, I cannot rule out continued paralysis and dysfunction at best and widespread political violence or even dissolution at worst.["...]

What kinds of political systems[...] are most vulnerable to democratic backsliding when voters become polarized? Answer: two-party systems like the one operating in the United States.

[... "]The longer this continues, the more the process raises the stakes in plurality elections and reinforces us-them intolerance among winners and especially losers, who increasingly come to reject the legitimacy of the rules of the game where they feel that the deck is consistently stacked against them.["...]

[...] "a majority of Americans today are more pressured to get life's necessities, more unsure of their future and find it far more difficult to find avenues to get ahead. No wonder they are fed up with politics as usual, think the system is rigged against them and just want someone to make things more secure."

[...] Perhaps the most trenchant comment I received was from [...] a professor of government and sociology at Harvard [...]

[... "]I have thought for some time that America was suffering multiple elite-driven institutional breakdowns across the board, opening the door to a national and global maelstrom. But now I find myself so overwhelmingly distressed by it all, including the collapse of core values at my own university [Harvard], that I cannot write coherently about it.["]

Opinion | Trump Has Ushered in the Age of the 'Great Misalignment' - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

MSNBC:

Quote

With so many election deniers in Congress, who needs a mob?

[...] after the U.S. Capitol attack, Congress made it harder to sabotage a presidential election. A new law raises the threshold for objecting to any state's electoral votes [... but] 152 [election deniers] sit in the House, more than enough to clear the higher bar. Nineteen sit in the Senate, just one shy of what would be needed. With many races expected to be close, the threshold could be lower if some members aren't sworn in by Jan. 6.

It gets worse: If no presidential candidate wins 270 electoral votes, then the House chooses the president. That hasn't happened in 200 years, but it's not impossible this election year. Under this process, each state gets one vote. As of today, election deniers sit in 36 House delegations.

[...] One of [Mike Johnson's] first acts as House speaker was to shield the identities of Jan. 6 rioters in footage of the attack, to help them avoid accountability.

Election deniers like Elise Stefanik threaten democracy as much as Trump (msnbc.com)

Wonder how much leeway the Speaker of the House could have in making it easier for insurrectionists to storm the Capitol building... or even for congresspeople to bring weapons in. (Even beyond Lauren Boebert's fists....)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 10 January 2024 - 09:57 PM

[Tapper]

Lady Bliss, on 10 January 2024 - 05:06 PM, said:

That’s truly frightening. What does he mean about drilling? He keeps saying that.

Oil (plus gas and coal) I’d presume. Autarky is a big thing for autocrats (and nationalists). Plus, I guess the MAGA base digs the idea that it is worth trillions on paper and even better, pisses off anyone who worries about man made climate change - never mind that the unsubsidised extraction costs are higher than investments in renewables would require, and the preparation won’t be finished by the time Trump II is through.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tapper, on 11 January 2024 - 08:25 AM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 10 January 2024 - 05:06 PM, said:

That's truly frightening. What does he mean about drilling? He keeps saying that.

Oil (plus gas and coal) I'd presume. Autarky is a big thing for autocrats (and nationalists). Plus, I guess the MAGA base digs the idea that it is worth trillions on paper and even better, pisses off anyone who worries about man made climate change - never mind that the unsubsidised extraction costs are higher than investments in renewables would require, and the preparation won't be finished by the time Trump II is through.

From December:

Quote

Trump pledged to expand oil and gas drilling in remote areas of Alaska as a way to pay for Social Security [...]

Drilling revenue is a tiny fraction of Social Security costs

[...] said that he would reverse a decision by [...] Biden to cancel oil and gas leases in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. He said that would negate proposals by his Republican rivals — including [...] Nikki Haley — to raise the Social Security eligibility age in order to keep the benefits programs solvent.

Trump Pledges to Expand Drilling to Pay for Senior Benefits - Bloomberg

I think many people will find the false dichotomy of 'we have to drill for oil or else we won't be able to fund social security' intuitively plausible---many humans seem to love false binary dilemmas, as if they fulfill the idea that there's some sort of natural balance between positives and negatives. And many will falsely assume that any numbers showing it wouldn't help much, even from a Wall Street source like Bloomberg, have been 'infected with wokeness' or are conspiring to stop Trump for whichever reasons (including of course ridiculous conspiracy theories).

Quote

The Arctic is an especially expensive place to drill for oil, so the price of oil must be high enough to ensure a payoff. Few oil companies in recent years have shown an appetite for taking on that kind of risk, with one major exception: ConocoPhillips.

[...] Companies have to contend with frozen roads, remote areas, and transporting specialized rigs before even unearthing any oil. Even in a world without environmental regulations, it simply costs more for oil companies to drill there, ranking the risks of the Arctic right alongside the risks of deep-water drilling and operating in politically unstable countries. Because of the expense, these are also long-term investments, from which companies plan to benefit over the course of 30 to 40 years. [...]

Just to break even, the oil would likely need to sell somewhere between $63 and $84 per barrel, [...] higher than what energy analysts expect in a world reducing its reliance on oil.

The oil industry's cynical gamble on Arctic drilling - [...] banking on a future filled with oil. - Vox

'Banking on a future filled with oil'... wonder how much Trump and his cronies have invested in ConocoPhilips (though IDK, it might not get a big bump in stock price until after he's long dead... assuming he doesn't either live long enough to get radical longevity extension or live on in perpetuity as an immortal deepfake dictator). Or maybe they're putting puts or shorts on US renewables?...

And turning from the cascading garbage inferno this planet is becoming to the Boebert front:

Quote

Lauren Boebert's Ex-Husband Arrested for Allegedly Assaulting Son

[...] three days after Jayson Boebert called the police on the congresswoman [...]

"Due to a lack of any evidence the allegations of domestic violence against Rep. Lauren Boebert are unfounded [...] "

What about that witness Jayson said he had?

Oh wait here's their 'evidence':

Quote

[...] three of the six charges against [Jayson Boebert] were related to the restaurant incident, during which Jayson Boebert repeatedly cursed out cops and refused their demands for him to leave.

[... At the Boebert house,] Jayson Boebert got into a physical fight with [their son] Tyler over the 18-year-old's decision to let his infant sleep in a laundry basket [...]

"[...] While Jayson dug his thumb into Tyler's mouth, Tyler felt that Jayson was going to pull his tooth out. Tyler confirmed this caused him pain," the documents state.

[...]Jayson Boebert, who was intoxicated and slurring his speech, allegedly "grabbed the rifle" and left the house[...]

An unidentified woman at the eatery said she saw Jayson get hit [by Lauren].

Lauren Boebert's Ex-Husband Jayson Boebert Arrested for Allegedly Assaulting Son, Tyler (thedailybeast.com)

So reporters apparently did confirm that there was a witness to her hitting him.

Seems like vengeful crooked small-town cops doing El Boebert's bidding.....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 January 2024 - 06:28 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley claimed the US has "never been a racist country" during an interview with Fox News [...]

Her campaign later affirmed Haley's statement.

"America has always had racism, but America has never been a racist country," a campaign spokesman said. [...]

[...] Haley previously faced criticism for failing to mention slavery when initially asked by a voter about the cause of the Civil War [...]

[... she] said her motivation for running for the White House bid is to prove gender or race don't act as a deterrent.

"That's why I'm so passionate about doing this. I don't want my kids growing up where they're sitting there thinking that they're disadvantaged because of a color or a gender. I want them to know that if they work hard, they can do and be anything they want to be in America,"

Haley says US has 'never been a racist country' | CNN Politics

... and she's not going to come anywhere close to winning, so that proves... that she's really pandering hard to the racists and the willfully ignorant.

Quote

The word "slave" does not appear in the Constitution. [...] Nevertheless, slavery received important protections in the Constitution. The notorious three-fifths clause—which counted three-fifths of a state's slave population in apportioning representation—gave the South extra representation in the House of Representatives and extra votes in the Electoral College. Thomas Jefferson would have lost the election of 1800 if not for the Three-fifths Compromise. The Constitution also prohibited Congress from outlawing the Atlantic slave trade for twenty years. A fugitive slave clause required the return of runaway slaves to their owners. The Constitution gave the federal government the power to put down domestic rebellions, including slave insurrections.

The framers of the Constitution believed that concessions on slavery were the price for the support of southern delegates for a strong central government. They were convinced that if the Constitution restricted the slave trade, South Carolina [where Nikki Haley was governor] and Georgia would refuse to join the Union.

Historical Context: The Constitution and Slavery | Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History

The three-fifths clause from the Constitution:

Quote

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons.


Slavery and the Making of America . The Slave Experience: Legal Rights & Gov't | PBS (thirteen.org)

So neither 'free Persons' nor bound to service for a term of years... what could could that 'all other Persons' mean I wonder?

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 January 2024 - 02:29 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

[...] commentary from law professors and former federal prosecutors arguing that Fulton County (Georgia) District Attorney Fani Willis should not be disqualified—even though she hired as a special prosecutor Nathan Wade, a man she was allegedly dating, paid him nearly $700,000, and received vacations in return.

I disagree.

[...] It seems like those facts may not be in dispute[...]

[...] The standard to disqualify Fulton County here is not whether Fani Willis actually made her decisions to benefit Nathan Wade. It's plausible that she would have made the exact same choices without the personal relationship. But if her choices to extend or prolong the investigation benefit a romantic partner, who is paying for her meals and vacations, that is an actual conflict.

When a Georgia judge was found having sex with a public defender outside the courthouse, the courts did not hesitate to find that this undisclosed sexual contact required new trials for the accused, even if it might have arguably been to their benefit.

[...] Judge McAfee has stated his intention to hold a hearing in February to look over the truth of these allegations. If they are true, the case will not be dismissed, but it is likely that he will disqualify Fani Willis, which, under Georgia law, will require disqualifying her entire office. [...]

[...] even if everything goes as smoothly as humanly possible, it is difficult to imagine trying [Trump] before the November election. And it's also possible the case may go to someone who will choose to dismiss it.

Why We Can't Just Shrug Off the Fani Willis Scandal (thedailybeast.com)

Quote

Judge Aileen Cannon Is Quietly Sabotaging the Trump Classified Documents Case

[...] It's deeply offensive to the rule of law for judges to bend the law to benefit those who put them on the bench. Sadly, Cannon does just that.

[...] a pattern we've already seen of Cannon laying the groundwork for delaying Trump's trial—until it's too late for a jury to be empaneled and the case tried to verdict before the election.

That is, of course, just what Trump has been angling for.

[...] By continuing to maintain the trial date while rendering the date virtually impossible to keep, Cannon evidently hopes to maintain plausible deniability

[...] It may well be that Smith is biding his time before moving to recuse this manifestly compromised jurist. He may be waiting until she finally does what seems inevitable—orders that the trial date be vacated. [...]

Let's hope it won't be too late for Trump's alleged crimes against the nation's security be fairly tried before the election.

Judge Aileen Cannon is sabotaging the Trump classifed docs case. (slate.com)

So both of those trials now most likely won't happen before the election. As far as criminal prosecutions go, that leaves the Federal election interference case in Washington DC:

Quote

Still officially scheduled for March 4 [...]
A stay is in place while Trump, who maintains his actions were an appropriate use of presidential power, appeals [...] claim[ing] that he's protected by presidential immunity.

Smith has taken action to make sure the appeal is heard as quickly as possible in hope of preserving the March trial date. He asked the Supreme Court to hear the appeal directly, a request it declined without comment

What to expect from Trump's trials and court cases in 2024 (nbcnews.com)

[Edit: so it now seems much more likely that none of Trump's criminal trials will happen before the election.]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 January 2024 - 01:46 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

'Why Are Voters So Upset? Consider the Snickers Bar.

The United States has just experienced one of the biggest collapses in consumer inflation in modern history. [...] And yet, in survey after survey, voters still declare inflation to be at or near the top of their list of concerns.

[...] humans don't think about inflation rationally. [...]

[...] we probably buy a Snickers bar much more frequently, perhaps even daily. So we're much more likely to remember the price of the Snickers bar and forget the price of the television we bought last year.

Consumers tend to think only about the prices of high-frequency purchases — food for the family and fuel for the S.U.V.

[...] The prices of more expensive goods like furniture and consumer electronics are actually falling — and have been falling for over a year. [...]

Unfortunately for the Biden administration, however, food prices are still rising — a fact evident at every supermarket checkout. Less than a tenth of an average household's budget is spent at the supermarket, but the prices paid there dominate the inflation perception of the consumer. [...]

[...] people are inclined to place more emphasis on price increases (which represent a loss of spending power) than they are on price declines.

[...] If something cost $1 for a decade, consumers resent the fact that the same product is $1.20 today — even if the price of that product is no longer rising. Mentally, consumers feel that the product ought to cost $1 and they are nostalgic for the old price.

[...] All of this may help explain why the same consumers who believe inflation is higher than it really is aren't aggressively cutting their own spending. [...] The mantra "never underestimate the hedonism of the U.S. consumer" continues to hold good. [No wonder Trump is our mascot (I think in the UK you call those 'Kings'?....]

[...] if disinflation takes hold for food and fuel, there may be more satisfaction about economic policy.

Opinion | The Snickers Bar Is the Economic Indicator We Need - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Disinflation for food before the election? Fat chance of that, especially with all the climatic and geopolitical disruptions....

Is it still too early to nuke humanity from orbit? Elon, get on it!

Oh wait, he's too busy ruining our only hope (so far) for a Democratic alternative to Biden:

Quote

Ramaswamy's base of super-online trolls (e.g., Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, "anti-woke" venture capitalists) have gradually been moving on to their next great hope for shaking up the 2024 race: [...] Dean Phillips.

Yep, you read that correctly: The wealthy oligarchs who've backed Ramaswamy and third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are now leaning toward a decidedly liberal, milquetoast Dem [...]

Ackman, Calacanis, and Musk hosted an hourlong Twitter Space with Phillips. Perhaps understanding the right-leaning tendencies of his hosts, Phillips took the opportunity to say he would set up "the most extraordinary bipartisan Cabinet in American history"—one that might perhaps include Musk and/or Ackman. [...]

[...] Phillips, one of Congress' wealthiest members, has an extensive business background. [...] heir to the Phillips family liquor dynasty[...] won his seat by flipping a Republican-held district in 2018. Backers also seem to like that despite his Biden-aligned voting record and progressive outlooks on health policy and the filibuster, Phillips has bashed his party for "demeaning" Border Patrol agents, called the current migrant influx an "unforgiveable disaster," and stood firm in his support of Israel.

[...] The tech-bro billionaire set might be deluded enough to think that their money and influence can make a contender out of an unknown, uninspiring, Midwestern congressman whose primary message is "Biden is old." But it's weird for Phillips to think he can make it in the Democratic primary and beat Trump by kowtowing with people like Musk, who's been parroting racist pseudoscience and boosting Stephen Miller's "America First Legal" firm.

Dean Phillips presidential campaign: With Vivek Ramaswamy out of the race, tech bros are backing the Democratic congressman. (slate.com)

... IDK if his 'support for Israel' is more terrible than Biden's but I'd guess it won't help him, at least in the primary. If the 'bipartisan cabinet' is full of Trump people, or even little Romneys, that's also a major negative (for me, and in the primary...). Maybe he's not much of a serious primary candidate after all....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 18 January 2024 - 01:56 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

America entered 2023 with two big problems and two leading theories about what was causing them. [...] the murder rate had reached levels not seen since the mid-1990s, which was widely attributed to reductions in policing following the protests [...] The inflation rate was even worse [...] This, in turn, was believed to be the result of [...] Biden [...] pumping too much money into the economy. [...] To bring crime back down, America’s cities would have to empower their depleted and demoralized police forces. To tame inflation, the Federal Reserve would have to crush consumer spending by triggering a recession.

Both theories now appear to have been wrong. Over the course of 2023, police forces kept shrinking, yet overall violent-crime rates plummeted to their lowest levels since the 1960s. And the economy boomed even as inflation came just about all the way down to the Fed’s 2 percent target. [...]

[...] “Suddenly you’re stuck at home all day without access to social supports or a sense of purpose or something to occupy you. And the guy you have a beef with is just down the road. It’s a recipe for violence.” Roman pointed out that the beginning of the decline in violence coincided almost perfectly with the beginning of the 2022–23 school year. “That’s really the first time when everything finally went back to normal,” [...]

[...] concluded that inflation was mostly a story of pandemic-shutdown ripple effects. (Other studies have come to the same conclusion.) [...]

[...] According to Gallup, 77 percent of Americans believe there is more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. Economic sentiment has begun to tick up, but it is still near the lowest levels on record. [...] found that U.S. voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump will do a better job than Joe Biden [but what about Hunter? better than him too?] when it comes to the economy (52 percent to 35 percent), inflation (51 percent to 30 percent), and crime (47 percent to 30 percent). Voters seem to be yearning for a return to the normalcy of the pre-pandemic, and Trump is promising to give it to them.

The absurdity of Trump as the normalcy candidate is almost too much to bear—especially because the normalcy that voters are desperately craving is, in many ways, already here, and Biden helped deliver it. Many economists now believe that the pandemic stimulus was key to the U.S. economy performing so much better than those of other advanced countries. The stimulus also might have played an underappreciated role in reducing crime by keeping local governments and the community organizations they support afloat. “The only reason cities did not completely fall apart during the pandemic was because of a huge boost in federal funding,”

The Great Normalization - The Atlantic

52% isn't really an overwhelming majority, though it's certainly much larger than Biden's 35%.

How can voters be convinced that inflation and crime are actually down?

From October:

Quote

The 32% of Americans who say they trust the mass media “a great deal” or “a fair amount” to report the news in a full, fair and accurate way ties Gallup’s lowest historical reading, previously recorded in 2016. [...]

[...] a record-high 39% register “none at all.” [...] It is 12 points higher than the 2016 reading, which came amid sharp criticism of the media from [...] Trump -- making the current assessment of the media the grimmest in Gallup’s history.

Media Confidence in U.S. Matches 2016 Record Low (gallup.com)

... maybe they'll believe it if Go* tells them it's true in a dream? So how do we hack their smartphones to speak when they're sleeping...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

As with voters' misperceptions of inflation, the primary issue with mass perception of crime rates is probably salience, as partly mediated by frequency of perceptual exposure (too bad we can't get AR/VR goggles on all of them fast enough for virtuous reprogramming, from waking through dreaming and back again through the futures...):

Quote

every category of major crime except auto theft declined [in 2023].

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising[...]

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” [...] “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.” [...] there is a measure of partisanship at work — Republicans are more ready to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House — but he largely chalks it up to media consumption.

“My neighbors never post on NextDoor how many thousands of packages they successfully receive,” [...] “Only video of the one that randomly got swiped.”

[...] Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not.

“These outlier incidents become the glue people rely on when guesstimating whether crime is up or down,”

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong. (nbcnews.com)

The education system could train people to overcome their bias towards salience and look at the data, as vetted by processes and experts that they trust---but then of course there's the possible issue of corrupt institutions providing false or misleading statistics that conflict with one's own experience (especially one's own experience of feeling in their soul that Trump is telling the truth...).

[Tsundoku]

Parody article that accurately articulates the opinion of anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together:

https://theshovel.co...s-again-are-we/

Fuck, We’re Doing This Again Are We?

“Here we fucking go again,” the world has sighed, following the realisation that dealing with the sound of this babbling, self-obsessed, orange-faced, neo-Nazi arseclown is going totally unavoidable for the foreseeable future.

“Just when we’d managed to get the image of that whiny little tax-avoiding fuckface out of our minds, here he is again, running for a Presidency, which according to him, he never lost in the first place,” a spokesperson for the world said today.

“Yet here he is, the knobhead who buried his wife in a small grave on his golf course in order to get a tax concession, telling us that he’s going to make American great again, again. It’s only a matter of time before he starts quoting ratings data from The Apprentice”.

“As if we don’t have enough to deal with right now,” another exasperated representative of the human race said. “I’ve got enough on my plate right now without having to think about this baby-man who is so bad at losing that he tried to overthrow an entire democracy to try and save face.

“Seriously, fuck this guy. The guy who’s filed for bankruptcy six times, lecturing us on economics. The guy who suggested drinking bleach to cure a virus. The guy who boasted that he was able to memorise – in order – the words ‘person’, ‘woman’, ‘man’ and ‘camera’, putting himself forward to run the world’s most powerful nation. Fuck that.

“Only good thing to look forward to? The concession speech at Four Seasons Total Landscaping in 2024″.

------------------------

Unfortunately the last sentence seems like a forlorn hope at the moment since it looks like the orange fuckface and his tribe of gibbering arseclowns will probably get in again because just enough Americans are intensely proud of their ability to reject all reason.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 21 January 2024 - 03:48 AM

[Abyss]

...and that's the ridiculous, terrifying, frustrating part. They're going to do it. Against all logic and reason and sheer for fucks sake what is wrong w them, they're going to elect him. Again.

It's not 1984 or even Gilead, it's a fucking Simpsons episode without the reset after 22min + ads.

[Primateus]

And republicans are complaining about how the world is laughing at the US.

On behalf of at least the sane part of the world; No, we're not laughing.

Joe Biden might be a semi-useless old fart, but at least he brought some stability and sanity back. so while we might laugh a bit at his gaffes, or frown at some of his piss poor policies, at least we can appreciate that he's not insane.

And Trump? We're not laughing at him either. Oh sure, his obvious and stupid lies about his health, weight, intelligence, and so on, are occasionally amusing because it's just ridiculous.

But no, we're not actually laughing at Trump, not really.

Why? Why are we not laughing at Donald Trump? Is it because we're intimidated by him? Of course not. Is it because we think he's actually a great world leader? Ha! No.

We're not laughing at him because, and this can't be said forcefully enough; BECAUSE IT'S NOT FUCKING FUNNY!!

His stupidity, his unpredictability, his sheer and brazen evil? His willingness to embrace and excuse the most evil and depraved dictators in the world? These are things that are legitimately terrifying when you put them all in a person who very well could become the leader of the most powerful country in the world.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Just wait till we become a theocracy and decide to convert you to our holy wars.

With the notable exceptions of Russia's holy war against Ukraine (excellent role model for would-be theocrat(-kleptocrat)s in the United States---maybe we'll do Canada first?) and Bosnia/Serbia, it's been so long in Europe that you've probably forgotten how much fun they are. But don't worry, we'll save you from abortion---and Hell!

And Donald Trump will be Go*'s holy warrior---at least after he dies and passes into the Heaven of AI-generated deepfakes. In which he can perform obvious miracles even more easily. (In the meantime, we can remember that one of Trump's saving graces---so far at least---has been his physical cowardice, which may dissuade him from any military action which significantly increases his odds of being assassinated... then again Putin is also paranoid about threats to his life, and that hasn't stopped him....)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 January 2024 - 02:14 PM