[Terez]

The problem is that he's probably going to win South Carolina (the 3rd state) and he's probably not dropping out any time soon. The only consolation is that Buttigieg is stealing a lot of his votes, so both the left and the right are split (Bernie-Warren, Biden-Buttigieg). And if Bloomberg manages to take votes from anyone, it will be the Biden-Buttigieg wing.

From here it's on to New Hampshire which Bernie won pretty decisively in 2016. But then, South Carolina.

[Kanese S's]

QuickTidal, on 04 February 2020 - 03:38 PM, said:

Terez, on 04 February 2020 - 03:13 PM, said:

Fair enough. I join you in celebrating Biden's pathetic showing in the numbers we've seen so far.

This is the bigger story to me. Biden's poor showing will hopefully destroy his campaign, as it should. Old man needs to sit down.

Which has the added effect of Trump and the GOP throwing all in (regarding Ukraine) to try to illegally kneecap a political opponent who hopefully won't even get the nomination anyways. The irony is palpable.

Agreed. Just retire, already, Joe.

[Kanese S's]

Obdigore, on 04 February 2020 - 02:58 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 04 February 2020 - 02:06 PM, said:

I thought the results were meant to be in for Iowa last night....what's going on? Shenanigans?

The process is new, and they apparently tried using an app that crashed, so they are manually recording then counting votes.

I'm not really sure why each station has their own delegates, or why a coin flip is the 'correct' method to determine who gets delegates if 2 candidates both have a 'share'. Seems pretty odd to me.

It really feels like they are trying to replicate the presidential election results without addressing the issues in that election.

Edit - To be clear, this is run by the Iowa Democratic Party, not the national one. And it sure reeks of unprofessional/unprepared people trying to be on the main stage. I have no idea why we don't just start with Super Tuesday. Why do IA, NH, and NC go first, and are so important? That seems... odd.

I can say that Biden appears to be doing terribly, and it looks like Klobuchar and Buttigieg are splitting the old white vote. Buttigieg somehow polls worse among minorities than Biden, and none of those three candidates are going to get anyone who doesn't normally vote to do so. I'm happy Gabbard is non-existant. I'd really like the race to be between Warren and Sanders, but we got captain oligarch, Bloomberg, spending a ton of money to try and buy his way into the race, because he is afraid of the economic policies of Warren and Sanders.

I'd also suggest that Buttigieg did better in Iowa then he would in a general, since it's his home state, which is an expected thing.

All of these numbers are from polls before the Caucaus, be they internal candidate numbers or polled by 3rd parties, because we have like 1.7% reporting in any real numbers, by my last check.

Caucuses are stupid and I hate them.

We need to just have ranked choice primaries, all on the same fucking day. This is ridiculous.

I'm glad Biden is doing poorly. Dude had no business even running, and I remember groaning when he announced he was, what feels like forever ago now.

Bloomberg is very obviously trying to buy the election, but I'm hoping he'll only split the "moderate" vote even more.

[Terez]

Correction: I forgot Nevada is before South Carolina now.

https://www.270towin...ction-calendar/

February 3: Iowa (caucus)
February 11: New Hampshire (primary)
February 22: Nevada (caucus)
February 29: South Carolina (primary)
March 3: Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia (all primaries)
March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Washington (all primaries)
March 14: Northern Mariana (caucus)
March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Ohio (primaries)
March 24: Georgia (primary)
March 29: Puerto Rico (primary)
April 4: Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana (primaries), Wyoming (caucus)
April 7: Wisconsin (primary)
April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island (primaries)
May 2: Guam (caucus), Kansas (primary)
May 5: Indiana (primary)
May 12: Nebraska, West Virginia (primaries)
May 19: Kentucky, Oregon (primaries)
June 2: DC, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 6: Virgin Islands (caucus)
July 13-16: Convention

[Malankazooie]

Ah, Super Tuesday is March 3rd. I was wondering when that was this go around.

[Terez]

62% of precincts reporting.



We'll get more details soon about which precincts those are, which is important in determining whether the results will significantly change.

Edit:



Same caution. I just read elsewhere that half of Polk County (the most populous county) is still out. (Which means it might get even worse for Biden.)

This post has been edited by Terez: 04 February 2020 - 10:35 PM

[Malankazooie]

Damn, watching the beginning of State of the Union and all the dignitaries walking in. First lady shook hands with Rush Limbaugh. Holy crapola, I never paid attention to Rush Limbaugh, so haven't tracked how he has changed over the years, but I didn't even recognize him. He looking frail af. I know he's been diagnosed with the capital C, and late stage to boot. I'm guessing he's doneso in under year and won't see 2021.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Malankazooie, on 05 February 2020 - 02:07 AM, said:

Damn, watching the beginning of State of the Union and all the dignitaries walking in. First lady shook hands with Rush Limbaugh. Holy crapola, I never paid attention to Rush Limbaugh, so haven't tracked how he has changed over the years, but I didn't even recognize him. He looking frail af. I know he's been diagnosed with the capital C, and late stage to boot. I'm guessing he's doneso in under year and won't see 2021.

'President Donald Trump told network anchors during a private lunch Tuesday that he will award Rush Limbaugh with the Medal of Freedom'

https://www.cnn.com/...edom/index.html

[Terez]

My dad raised me on Rush Limbaugh. It took the internet to break me out of that indoctrination.

Fun fact: I had a one-night stand with a person who was later awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. (It wasn't Rush, thank the heavens.)

[D'rek]

Terez, on 05 February 2020 - 02:15 AM, said:

My dad raised me on Rush Limbaugh. It took the internet to break me out of that indoctrination.

Fun fact: I had a one-night stand with a person who was later awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. (It wasn't Rush, thank the heavens.)

The only two recipients I know off the top of my head are Buzz Aldrin and Desmond Tutu, so... how's Tutu in bed?

[Malankazooie]

Religious is the streets, hedonistic is the sheets.

[Malankazooie]

Oh boy, oh my, the political theater between Trump and Pelosi has captured the 24/7 wonky heads. So much juicy drama, and a complete distraction. *FansSelf I do declare, have they no shame? *ExitsWithAFlourish

[Abyss]

Terez, on 05 February 2020 - 02:15 AM, said:

Fun fact: I had a one-night stand with a person who was later awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. (It wasn't Rush, thank the heavens.)

Which category?

[Terez]

Malankazooie, on 05 February 2020 - 06:06 PM, said:

Oh boy, oh my, the political theater between Trump and Pelosi has captured the 24/7 wonky heads. So much juicy drama, and a complete distraction. *FansSelf I do declare, have they no shame? *ExitsWithAFlourish

There's just something a little unreal about Trump supporters whining about decorum. They wouldn't last a day in the House of Commons.

[QuickTidal]

So Romney votes to convict. Huh.

No WAY this was a hall pass from Mitch either. He would have allowed hall passes on the witnesses vote, but not removal. Because this takes away one of the legs of the GOP talking points (that the impeachment is "partisan hackery") and it REALLY makes people like Murkowski and Collins who both seemed to say that "Yes, Trump was wrong, but no we won't vote to remove him" look even worse. This damages the GOP's whole strategy 9 months before an election.

My knee-jerk is to see this as theatre, but I don't think it is. Also, don't just read about this. Watch him speak it live as you can see he's struggling to get through being the single dissenter. (I mean it sounds like he's safe from being primaried in Utah anyways)

Romney either did this as an attack of sudden conscience, or to improve his chances of a future 2nd attempt run at POTUS, or perhaps just so the history books remember him better than everyone else in the party of 2020....but whatever his reasons, this is a good thing.

I think everyone needed to hear a Republican admit that this is bad, and Trump is wrong...regardless of the reasons.

Also, I hear this is history-setting as no Senator has ever voted to remove a president of their own party before.

[Terez]

It's definitely not just an attack of sudden conscience. He's the only Republican who never lost the sense that they all had that he was a bad choice for president back in 2016. Almost every Senate Republican is on the record having said something about Trump that one wouldn't normally say about a candidate of one's own party. They all knew he was a disaster. When they got saddled with him, they just rolled with it. Romney did too to an extent, but he never really wavered from that conviction. He's not running for president again. He's happy enough being a Senator. He might get primaried in Utah; he might not. Utahns are more divided on Trump than most red states. He doesn't care about that either. He's on the record about this going back months. No one should really be surprised by this vote, but I am definitely relieved that he did the right thing in the end. So many other senators have given lip service to the glaringly obvious criticisms of Trump and then backed down because they didn't want to lose their seats. Romney has hundreds of millions of dollars in the bank and he will survive losing his senate seat. And he will sleep like a baby.

[Cause]

Will they try censure trump? They are now guaranteed Romney’s vote, and they have maybe 2 votes on lock who said he did wrong but does not deserve impeachment. Could they get a fourth? It will also destroy the republican talking point that they over reached and should have asked for censure but I’m sure we would see most republicans not vote for it either.

However it might look like Democrat’s not letting go and if they lose again it will be a disaster.

[Terez]

I believe a censure vote would go exactly the same way and I don't think it would serve any purpose. Manchin is just trying to get out of voting to convict.

PS: Looks like Manchin is going to bite the bullet and convict. The cynic in me wonders if he was going to do otherwise before Romney announced.

This post has been edited by Terez: 05 February 2020 - 09:21 PM

[Gorefest]

Wow, who knew. So he was innocent all along.

[Maark Abbott]

This seems to set a number of concerning precedents.