[Vengeance]

Each RI that is lynched increases the odds for the finders to find Meng Hou.


Thus with the odds firmly in our favor we need to lynch today.

[Khellendros]

Ah, so you're saying that there's possibly two symps as well as MH, and then there's also a successor who doesn't know they're a successor. Maybe, but I think we're missing something there, I'll have to think on it.

But with the finder-killers, you are wrong. If they investigate someone and that person turns out not to be MH, then they don't lose a go. They can keep going until they've killed MH 3 times (that is, found him three times).

[Khellendros]

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 01:43 PM, said:

Each RI that is lynched increases the odds for the finders to find Meng Hou.


Thus with the odds firmly in our favor we need to lynch today.

It only increases the odds minutely today, whereas the chances of lynching a finder-killer are much greater, or forcing them to reveal themselves so that they don't get lynched.

[Grief]

I was puzzling over this last night.

OP states we have to kill MH 6 times. The wording of the finder killer role:

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Suggests that the maximum of 3 only applies when they actually find MH.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The successor only becomes a rebel on the elimination of MH, so we're not looking at a cult as such.

Indeed, the game seems stacked against MH. The finders can kill a total of 6 times between them, we only need to kill MH 6 times. To win the scum have to make it impossible for us to kill MH six times, but the rules don't show the scum as having any way to decrease our numbers. If the generals kill 5 people we're down to 7 people with a max of 2 being MH.

I'm pretty sure I've missed something(or there is something in game to stop it working like this), because as far as I can see town wins just by waiting, which I doubt to be the case.

[Khellendros]

Stats can indeed be moulded to say anything you want them to say But the point here is to kill MH, not the symps (if there are any). You say we have an 25% chance of taking out a baddie - but there's still the almost 17% chance of taking out a finder-killer instead. Is that worth risking an extra 1.5% chance the finder-killers find MH?

Because as far as I see from the OP, the finder-killers are only told if they've found MH or not, no other info.

[Grief]

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 01:43 PM, said:

Each RI that is lynched increases the odds for the finders to find Meng Hou.


Thus with the odds firmly in our favor we need to lynch today.

Each RI lynched also brings MH closer to a majority though, so lynching for the odds doesn't sound like a good idea.

[Khellendros]

It does seem fairly stacked against MH, unless Venge is right and there's a couple of symps already at play.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:44 PM, said:

Ah, so you're saying that there's possibly two symps as well as MH, and then there's also a successor who doesn't know they're a successor. Maybe, but I think we're missing something there, I'll have to think on it.

But with the finder-killers, you are wrong. If they investigate someone and that person turns out not to be MH, then they don't lose a go. They can keep going until they've killed MH 3 times (that is, found him three times).

I'm not saying that they do lose a go for each towny that they find. Just that after 3 Meng hou they are RI and done. So to only rely on the finders to win the game is not practical. After all they can only get us half way to the finish line.


Why else would Drek say that MH has other rebel leaders if there isn't a couple. Plus look at it like this. In a game with 2 finders and a scum who can move into a total of six people. Except for the ones who are looking for him. As a mod you want to cause as much chaos as possible while driving the game forward. If successors know that they are successors then that would remove a very fun element for really no reason. Much better for the game and for the balance to have the successor in the dark. It evens it out with there being two finders and unlimited finds (till they find MH). The extra scum are there to help to throw off lynches and to finish off the balance of the game. Otherwise the town could simply lynch, the finders could reveal and then lynch and eliminate till MH was dead. That would be a boring game. Drek isn't boring. No the scum will need at least 1 but more likely two symps for the balance to even out and for the game to last longer then a week.

[Vengeance]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 01:46 PM, said:

I was puzzling over this last night.

OP states we have to kill MH 6 times. The wording of the finder killer role:

The Yan Dynasty generals are finder-killers. At night they can find out whether someone is or isn't Meng Huo. If they find Meng Huo they automatically kill him, up to a maximum of 3 times, after which they become RI. They cannot be designated as a successor by Meng Huo until after they have become RI.

Suggests that the maximum of 3 only applies when they actually find MH.

Meng Huo will randomly incite one player to rebel at the beginning of the game (this player remains their current role and also is Meng Huo). That player will designate a successor. When the Meng Huo player is eliminated, the successor will become the new rebel and Meng Huo and will designate their own successor. And so on, until one faction wins.

The successor only becomes a rebel on the elimination of MH, so we're not looking at a cult as such.

Indeed, the game seems stacked against MH. The finders can kill a total of 6 times between them, we only need to kill MH 6 times. To win the scum have to make it impossible for us to kill MH six times, but the rules don't show the scum as having any way to decrease our numbers. If the generals kill 5 people we're down to 7 people with a max of 2 being MH.

I'm pretty sure I've missed something(or there is something in game to stop it working like this), because as far as I can see town wins just by waiting, which I doubt to be the case.

Your thinking that each finder has 3 MH kills. I was thinking that combine the finders only have 3 MH kills.

[Vengeance]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 01:51 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 01:43 PM, said:

Each RI that is lynched increases the odds for the finders to find Meng Hou.


Thus with the odds firmly in our favor we need to lynch today.

Each RI lynched also brings MH closer to a majority though, so lynching for the odds doesn't sound like a good idea.

Oh sure there is the eventual D day. But till then there is no reason not to lynch for the odds. Early in the game the odds are with the town. At the end of the game the odds are with scum. So if your going to play the odds then as town you need to play them at the beginning of the game rather then at the end. Of course end games are a totally different game.

[Khellendros]

I also got the impression that they have 3 killa each, because, as far as I can tell from the OP, they don't collaborate with each other.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:51 PM, said:

Stats can indeed be moulded to say anything you want them to say But the point here is to kill MH, not the symps (if there are any). You say we have an 25% chance of taking out a baddie - but there's still the almost 17% chance of taking out a finder-killer instead. Is that worth risking an extra 1.5% chance the finder-killers find MH?

Because as far as I see from the OP, the finder-killers are only told if they've found MH or not, no other info.

Well I believe that the Finders are only going to have 3 kills between them. So we are going to have to lynch eventually. Better to lower the odds a little in the finders favor then to just wait it out till they manage to find the HM 3 times.

[Khellendros]

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 02:04 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:51 PM, said:

Stats can indeed be moulded to say anything you want them to say But the point here is to kill MH, not the symps (if there are any). You say we have an 25% chance of taking out a baddie - but there's still the almost 17% chance of taking out a finder-killer instead. Is that worth risking an extra 1.5% chance the finder-killers find MH?

Because as far as I see from the OP, the finder-killers are only told if they've found MH or not, no other info.

Well I believe that the Finders are only going to have 3 kills between them. So we are going to have to lynch eventually. Better to lower the odds a little in the finders favor then to just wait it out till they manage to find the HM 3 times.

Surely either way we can afford to wait. After all, MH can't kill anyone, and can't recruit further. After 3 MH kills, we can see what happens then. No?

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:01 PM, said:

I also got the impression that they have 3 killa each, because, as far as I can tell from the OP, they don't collaborate with each other.

Yes I got that they didn't collaborate with each other too. But Drek also said that there is going to be a FULL CI. Which means that everyone is going to know each time that MH dies. It would be very easy for Drek to say you are sharing 3 Find-kills with the other finder who you don't know.

Then if MH is lynched the finders would know that they still have F/k left. If MH died at night then the finders would know (or Drek would tell them) that they only have 2 F/K's left.

[Grief]

Ok, in theory we should be able to reduce it to 1 MH by the end of the game, since the original MH doesn't get a successor.

Not sure where I stand on the symps. If we have 3 kills from the generals(this is one of the things I missed. I assumed they had 3 each, but reading it again it seems likely to be shared), then that leaves us having to lynch MH 3 times. This could be pretty tricky on its own, considering we're essentially back to day 1 information wise as soon as MH moves.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:05 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 13 July 2011 - 02:04 PM, said:

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:51 PM, said:

Stats can indeed be moulded to say anything you want them to say But the point here is to kill MH, not the symps (if there are any). You say we have an 25% chance of taking out a baddie - but there's still the almost 17% chance of taking out a finder-killer instead. Is that worth risking an extra 1.5% chance the finder-killers find MH?

Because as far as I see from the OP, the finder-killers are only told if they've found MH or not, no other info.

Well I believe that the Finders are only going to have 3 kills between them. So we are going to have to lynch eventually. Better to lower the odds a little in the finders favor then to just wait it out till they manage to find the HM 3 times.

Surely either way we can afford to wait. After all, MH can't kill anyone, and can't recruit further. After 3 MH kills, we can see what happens then. No?

True but at the early stage of the game is when the odds are in the towns favor. Each person that we eliminate now both increases the odds for the finders and potentially eliminates either scum or MH. That and it might take a lot longer then 3 days for the finders to F/K MH. With the finders not collaborating they could be targeting the same person at night, targeting each other. Then they are going to have to eliminate there list. Shit we could potentially be doing nothing for a week before they F/K MH for the first time. That isn't mafia to me that is some boring shit.

[Grief]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 02:01 PM, said:

I also got the impression that they have 3 killa each, because, as far as I can tell from the OP, they don't collaborate with each other.

I assumed that originally too, but OP doesn't specify, and if they have three kills each then we would be able to simply not lynch and most likely win. After 5 deaths we've 7 left. Max 2 MH, maybe 2 symps. This gives MH the majority, but only just, and one of the finders just has to survive long enough to kill. And 2 MH at the end is pretty unlikely(it'd mean that of 5 MH kills, none had been the original). It'd make for a very dull game, more than anything else, so I'm guessing it's shared.

[Khellendros]

It's problem either way. Say we vote for night each time until the FKs get MH three times. That leaves 9 of us into which MH could jump. 1 in 9 is pretty bad odds of lynching the correct person.

But then, if we do lynch every day, the danger is that by the time FKs kill MH three times, we may not have lynched him even once, or his symps, and then there's only a few of us left and MH is very close to winning the game by making it impossible for us to lynch him off.

[Vengeance]

Grief, on 13 July 2011 - 02:08 PM, said:

Ok, in theory we should be able to reduce it to 1 MH by the end of the game, since the original MH doesn't get a successor.

Not sure where I stand on the symps. If we have 3 kills from the generals(this is one of the things I missed. I assumed they had 3 each, but reading it again it seems likely to be shared), then that leaves us having to lynch MH 3 times. This could be pretty tricky on its own, considering we're essentially back to day 1 information wise as soon as MH moves.

Yep. Which is why I am saying that we need to increase the finders odds early. If we aren't going to lynch then lets not lynch toward the end of the game. Especially if we can lynch MH a couple of times.

[Khellendros]

We wouldn't necessarily have to wait ages. Just get enough of us on thread to continually vote for night over and over again until the FKs have killed MH 3 times?