[Khellendros]

Oh God, it's all flooding back, the memories of day 1 confusion, indecision, and joke votes. How I've missed it

[Shinrei]

twelve, on 13 July 2011 - 06:37 AM, said:

[vote night

just to survive me peeking a look under his bamboo mask. Medusa has nothing on my pachyderm for taking people out and keeping them in line.



Now fools don't go voting me out for this post or my vote. I'll be around in 8 hours I'm leaving you with nothing to talk about other than my vote. The rest of this post is a tip of the hat to the mod for her great creativty. My vote is in all seriousness. I'll explain my reasoning when I get up on the morning. If you think about it my vote makes sense.

I'm guessing because we have a 1/6 chance to hit either Meng or his pre-game recruit, and a 1/? chance of hitting a finder-killer with the lynch. Are you suggesting we just leave the game to the finder-killers? If none are hit at night, tomorrow we'll have 3/12 Mengs, (so 1/4 chance) MINUS the 'cleared' people by finderkiller(s).

I don't know, even if we don't hit a Meng or a hunter killer, we're decreasing the recruitable pool and people for the finder-killers to find. Can finder-killers be recruited?

Shit, I suck at math/odds - there is probably a mathematically "right" way to play this scenario. Someone smart figure it out please.

[HiddenOne]

Checking in


Vote Tattersail

not that I owe you one or two, not that at all

for WIFOM'ing up the thread 5 seconds after them game started

Also, my elephant is glorious, if not so gangrenous as twelve's

[Tattersail_]

you owe me? when did this arise


there was no wifom because there was no speculation. i'll accept your vote

although now i will keep my eye on you

[Khellendros]

12 players. One is Meng Huo. Another is his designated successor. Two are finder-killers. The rest are RI.

I assume that if the designated successor is lynched before Meng Huo, then MH selects someone else? Does MH incite someone new to rebel every night, or just one person (their successor)? I assume the latter, as it doesn't say anything about MH continuing to select further people in the OP.

So we have a 1/12 chance of lynching MH. The finder-killers have a 1/6 chance of finding Meng Huo, as there's two of them. So, in that respect, they have a much better chance of finding MH than we do of lynching him. HOWEVER, if we lynch someone, even if they're not MH, that leaves them with 2/11 chance of finding MH, which is even better odds for them. So at this moment I'm more swayed towards lynching than night.

[Tattersail_]

i'd agree there would be two finder killers and the rest would be RI. I don't think the finders would be recruitable because they give us an equal footing, if Meng Huo can recruit it would make it easy for him to win if he recruits the finders.

[HiddenOne]

Tattersail, on 13 July 2011 - 07:46 AM, said:

vote shinrei

for voting for vengey knowing he will be enraged.


Remove vote


Vote Twelve


For voting night.

This I call speculation; Shin is probably lying about his real motivations & maybe Vengy secretly likes the attention

And don't you dare bring grudges into this - keep that beady eye on me so you can see me watching you in return

[Tattersail_]

HiddenOne, on 13 July 2011 - 12:04 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 13 July 2011 - 07:46 AM, said:

vote shinrei

for voting for vengey knowing he will be enraged.


Remove vote


Vote Twelve


For voting night.

This I call speculation; Shin is probably lying about his real motivations & maybe Vengy secretly likes the attention

And don't you dare bring grudges into this - keep that beady eye on me so you can see me watching you in return

ha ha i dared, you could call me a devil. Have you never seen the wrath of vengey?

[Khellendros]

No, they're not recruitable until they've found MH and killed him three times, as it says in the OP (I assume three times each).

But I've just thought, the danger with lynching today is that we lynch one of the finder-killers, which would not be good. We have a 1/6 chance of doing that.

[HiddenOne]

Tattersail, on 13 July 2011 - 12:02 PM, said:

i'd agree there would be two finder killers and the rest would be RI. I don't think the finders would be recruitable because they give us an equal footing, if Meng Huo can recruit it would make it easy for him to win if he recruits the finders.

this sounds plausible to me as well

[Khellendros]

And just to finish off the statistics we have a 3/4 (75%) chance of lynching an RI.

[Tattersail_]

its good to know about chances of who we may or may not hit. I think it is important to lynch every day because although we may hit ri we have a chance of hitting the recruiter, and as the recruiter's faction grows he becomes more powerful and more people will side with him and make it harder for town to get a lynch. It would be prudent to think that the MH will have one symp to start and tomorrow it will grow to two. That gives a voting block, so hopefully our finders will get lucky tonight.

[HiddenOne]

@Tatts -

I don't know about that - the way it reads for me is that there will only be 2 MH at a time - the recruiter and his recruit. Until the recruit is eliminated, that will be the MH faction, when the named successor will take the place of the first recruit.

That makes me think that town will be its own worst enemy as far as lynches are concerned.

If I'm all wrong about this someone please tell me now.

[Shinrei]

HiddenOne, on 13 July 2011 - 12:44 PM, said:

@Tatts -

I don't know about that - the way it reads for me is that there will only be 2 MH at a time - the recruiter and his recruit. Until the recruit is eliminated, that will be the MH faction, when the named successor will take the place of the first recruit.

That makes me think that town will be its own worst enemy as far as lynches are concerned.

If I'm all wrong about this someone please tell me now.

Ahh, in that case, maybe twelve is right in lynching aint the best idea.

[Khellendros]

Now that I've started, I can't stop. With a lynch, we have a 8.33% chance of hitting MH (I'm discounting the symp, as I presume if the successor is lynched, MH simply selects another one - and the objective is to lynch MH, not anyone else).

But we have a 16.7% chance of lynching a finder-killer. The finder-killers have a 16.7% chance of finding MH if we don't lynch anyone, and an 18.2% chance if we do lynch someone. That's not really much bigger odds, come to think of it.

I'm changing my mind here, but to me it comes down to an 8% difference in lynching a finder-killer over MH, and a 1.5% difference for the finder-killers' chances depending on if we lynch or not (and if we do lynch, that we don't lynch one of them).

This is of course based on everything remaining as it is now, and not some heap of convincing evidence coming up to lynch someone over others, but in this scenario is does actually seem more sensible to not lynch. The chances of something going wrong (lynching a finder-killer) are much greater than any benefit accrued.

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:08 PM, said:

This is of course based on everything remaining as it is now, and not some heap of convincing evidence coming up to lynch someone over others

Hello KELL.


Evidence established.

[Khellendros]

Hi Venge!

And that, unfortunately, is a difficult argument for me to argue against

[Vengeance]

Khellendros, on 13 July 2011 - 01:18 PM, said:

Hi Venge!

And that, unfortunately, is a difficult argument for me to argue against

I know and it is so logical that people will be blown away that it came from me.

[Vengeance]

Path-Shaper, on 12 July 2011 - 05:22 PM, said:

The town faction consists of two Yan Dynasty generals and all the southern regional leaders who have not rebelled. To win, the town must eliminate Meng Huo six times.

The scum faction consists of Meng Huo and the southern regional leaders who he has incited to rebel. To win, the scum must make it such that the town cannot possibly eliminate Meng Huo six times.

Ok first off there is more then 2 scum. As those of you who can read can see. It says Meng Huo and rebel leaders. Notice the plural. Drek is good and everything in the op needs to be looked at. By looking at Drek's wonderful map. I think that we can see that the Scum side consists of Meng Huo, Guang Zhou, and Jiao Zhou. Or one of the other names listed by those cities. Now the Op doesn't say anything about the next rebel successor knowing that they have been chosen to be the successor. If I had created the game I wouldn't have let them know. Otherwise there is a chance that it would effect the successors play. Plus it would generally be more fun and make it harder for the finders to figure out who is next if the successor doesn't know.

My argument for lynching is that the finders will only work for 3 times. If we lynch then we are helping to narrow down the search for Meng Huo while at the same time narrowing down the list of possible successors, and possibly lynching one of the other rebel leaders.

[Vengeance]

Now looking at the odds again I think that we have a 25% chance to lynch scum, a 16.7% chance to lynch one of the finders, and a 58% chance to lynch a RI. Or you can look at it as a 83% chance of not lynching the finders. Now that means that once again we need to lynch.


Isn't math fun.