[Grief]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

well if we were to find one person Ans, then Grief would be acceptable. He didn't want us to do a double find and if we are listening to him then he would be best to clear before we proceed forward

I'm fine with being cleared. It doesn't help me much(since I'm not in my own suspect pool, it doesn't narrow it down for me), but since our best move is to narrow down MH so we can lynch him, it does at least mean I know we aren't gonna hit MH.

I don't have much against double find, I'm just not sure of it. It's certainly more risky, just depends if we think it's worth the possible gain.

Though there is one thing in it's favour, in that we can use it to actually get some discussion rather than simply playing the numbers. WIFOM, but if we find one vet and one of the newer people, we can try and narrow thing further by speculating about which is more likely a choice from venge.

[Tattersail_]

well if you are innocent then you should suggest another for our finds, but i've put my provisional on you instead of Ment. Ans could do another find if you'd prefer more information, maybe he could find someone who we least likely think is MH.

[Grief]

Right, trying to get my thoughts in order.

A single find gives us:

1/3 chance today if we don't hit MH.
1/3 chance of hitting MH and moving to a 1/3 chance tommorow, with only one find(wouldn't want to use for risk of adding FKs to suspect pool).
If we manage to lynch without hitting MH, we move to tommorow, with a 1/3 chance of hitting MH, and the ability to use a finder. Realistically though, we aren't gonna aim for better than 1/2 odds.

Double find gives us:

1/2 chance today if we don't hit MH.
1/2 chance of hitting MH and moving to a 1/3 chance tommorow, with only one find.
If we lynch without hitting, we move to tommorow with 1/3 chance of hitting MH, and the ability to find.

WCS:

We hit MH today with a find, giving us 1/3 odds tommorow and 1/2 the day after.

BCS:

We double find and don't hit MH, then don't hit him next day, giving 1/2 odds both times.

As far as I can see, it actually really doesn't make any difference. The only difference is in when we are more likely to hit MH.

So, our best move is double find, since it's the only option that gives us a chance at BCS, and seems just as likely to end up with a 1/2 chance and a 1/3 chance as single find(which actually does nothing just now, since we get those odds just using the FKs).

[Grief]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:26 PM, said:

well if you are innocent then you should suggest another for our finds, but i've put my provisional on you instead of Ment. Ans could do another find if you'd prefer more information, maybe he could find someone who we least likely think is MH.

I've now actually done the math rather than just relying on a rough guess at t, and it turns out I'm wrong about double find.

As far as finding goes, I do think our best strategy for a double find is one vet and one newer player. I can think of a couple of reasons why venge might pick one or the other of those classifications, but cannot justify why venge might pick one particular player within those sets over another.

[Grief]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:26 PM, said:

well if you are innocent then you should suggest another for our finds, but i've put my provisional on you instead of Ment. Ans could do another find if you'd prefer more information, maybe he could find someone who we least likely think is MH.

Out of GH and HO, I really have no idea which is less likely to be scum. HO has probably garnered less attention, so maybe that makes him slightly more likely.

[Tattersail_]

HO, Ment and you were the best people to jump into or have as a successor as you are a top player and making lots of discussion, Ment is quiet and not around and HO I forgot was playing. GH is safe at the moment I think but i'll find him tomorrow just in case.

[Gust Hubb]

Are we ready for night then?

[Grief]

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:42 PM, said:

HO, Ment and you were the best people to jump into or have as a successor as you are a top player and making lots of discussion, Ment is quiet and not around and HO I forgot was playing. GH is safe at the moment I think but i'll find him tomorrow just in case.

Like I said, I can't see much reason to choose HO over GH. It gets hugely WIFOM fast though. HO has received less attention, but then that makes him seem more of an obvious target as opposed to GH, etc...

[Grief]

Probably best to confirm the double find first.

I think Tat switched to me, but I think ans is still on me as well.

One of you should switch, preferably to a newer player.

[Tattersail_]

I don't think ans has done a find yet, i think he was holding back.

[Grief]

Ah, he did only say he was ok with the choices, not that he'd actually put it on. Fair enough.

[ansible]

Alright, I agree with the double find approach...since losing all the FKs hurts us as much as it helps, I feel we should use them to clear people as much as possible to get the advantage for a lynch.

I've put in a find on HO. I think we have good targets.

Vote night

P-S did say she would be gone part of the day so we might be waiting a bit for resolution.

[Grief]

Vote night

Hopefully we don't hit MH. Odds are best that way.

[Gust Hubb]

ansible, just to speak up i am concerned on finding HO. I know i am inno, so you may want to find me.

[Grief]

Would one of the people in SH be able to resolve this?

[HiddenOne]

Gust Hubb, on 21 July 2011 - 03:02 PM, said:

ansible, just to speak up i am concerned on finding HO. I know i am inno, so you may want to find me.

Are you calling me scum?



Vote Night

[Grief]

Didn't a night vote already pass?

[Gust Hubb]

Yup. I think HO is emphasizing his point.

[Grief]

HiddenOne-Drama Queen of HHM

[HiddenOne]

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 03:32 PM, said:

HiddenOne-Drama Queen of HHM

That's not nice.

Also, I didn't realize night had passed until after I posted. If I were truly in drama mode, it would not be so tame.