[Gust Hubb]

DAMN!!!!!!!!!

[ansible]

D:

[Tattersail_]

i've seen where this has been going for a while. We need to get MH 3 more times to win. The only way to do this would be to lynch, hopefully get it right, lynch or find again and then it may be a 50/50 toss up to whether or not we as town win.

Shit shit and shit. MH is one of HO, GH and Ment. If we lynch wrong then its 50 50 whether or not we get MH. That'll be 4 kills, with one person left, we find him and that would be 5 kills, what happens then? I vote ansible and ansible votes for me ha ha. This is most definately D day now. Should we take a guess as who to find? Hopefully we miss MH then it's 50 50 if we get to lynch the MH. Leaving it again 50 50 to lynch MH again. What are your thoughts Ansible?

[HiddenOne]

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 03:37 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 21 July 2011 - 03:24 AM, said:

also, why is GH not a suspect?

My mistake.

"Also, I've confirmed this with P-S - when MH dies, it happens at the end of the day, and so does the jump to the next successor. This means that if we lynch MH, and a find is placed on his successor on the same night, the find will kill the successor because he will already be MH when night falls."

I was misremembering this and thinking we didn't have to worry about GH because tattersail had a find on him.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 01:26 PM, said:

I also think we should vote night. Not sure if we should go for 2 finds or 1. 2 would be great if we pulled it off, but gives a 50/50 chance of hitting MH, which we don't wanna do, because it really restricts our ability to use the finders again tommorow(because if we hit MH tonight then any further hits really hurt our odds because the finders become RI, so the risk greatly increases).

On the other hand, we've not been great with lynches thus far and don't have much more than guesswork to go on, so we might not win without taking more of a risk.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 01:55 PM, said:

In regards to your idea about using all the FKs-the problem is that it really doesn't help our odds. Both of you are added to the suspect pool, so even when there's only 3 people left, it's 1/3 odds, which is what we could have now just with one find.

Find wise, I'd say it does matter to save a FK here if possible. If we don't have 2 tommorow, then using one is really risky, because it risks adding 2 extra people into the suspect pool, and could really hurt our odds.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:05 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 01:56 PM, said:

so are you saying we should only find one person?

I'm not really sure. Finding 2 gives us better odds of being able to lynch MH. However, it also gives us a better chance of hitting MH, which will hurt us down the line.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:07 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 21 July 2011 - 02:03 PM, said:

And ansible, I would check with P-S, but I love your idea of blocking MH from a jump.

Hasn't this come up before?

Pretty sure someone mentioned it a couple of days back, and someone pointed out that to win scum only needs to make it impossible for us to kill MH 6 times, which blocking him effectively does since he can't jump which means he can't be killed.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:19 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:11 PM, said:

well if we were to find one person Ans, then Grief would be acceptable. He didn't want us to do a double find and if we are listening to him then he would be best to clear before we proceed forward

I'm fine with being cleared. It doesn't help me much(since I'm not in my own suspect pool, it doesn't narrow it down for me), but since our best move is to narrow down MH so we can lynch him, it does at least mean I know we aren't gonna hit MH.

I don't have much against double find, I'm just not sure of it. It's certainly more risky, just depends if we think it's worth the possible gain.

Though there is one thing in it's favour, in that we can use it to actually get some discussion rather than simply playing the numbers. WIFOM, but if we find one vet and one of the newer people, we can try and narrow thing further by speculating about which is more likely a choice from venge.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:26 PM, said:

Right, trying to get my thoughts in order.

A single find gives us:

1/3 chance today if we don't hit MH.
1/3 chance of hitting MH and moving to a 1/3 chance tommorow, with only one find(wouldn't want to use for risk of adding FKs to suspect pool).
If we manage to lynch without hitting MH, we move to tommorow, with a 1/3 chance of hitting MH, and the ability to use a finder. Realistically though, we aren't gonna aim for better than 1/2 odds.

Double find gives us:

1/2 chance today if we don't hit MH.
1/2 chance of hitting MH and moving to a 1/3 chance tommorow, with only one find.
If we lynch without hitting, we move to tommorow with 1/3 chance of hitting MH, and the ability to find.

WCS:

We hit MH today with a find, giving us 1/3 odds tommorow and 1/2 the day after.

BCS:

We double find and don't hit MH, then don't hit him next day, giving 1/2 odds both times.

As far as I can see, it actually really doesn't make any difference. The only difference is in when we are more likely to hit MH.

So, our best move is double find, since it's the only option that gives us a chance at BCS, and seems just as likely to end up with a 1/2 chance and a 1/3 chance as single find(which actually does nothing just now, since we get those odds just using the FKs).

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:36 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:26 PM, said:

well if you are innocent then you should suggest another for our finds, but i've put my provisional on you instead of Ment. Ans could do another find if you'd prefer more information, maybe he could find someone who we least likely think is MH.

I've now actually done the math rather than just relying on a rough guess at t, and it turns out I'm wrong about double find.

As far as finding goes, I do think our best strategy for a double find is one vet and one newer player. I can think of a couple of reasons why venge might pick one or the other of those classifications, but cannot justify why venge might pick one particular player within those sets over another.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:38 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:26 PM, said:

well if you are innocent then you should suggest another for our finds, but i've put my provisional on you instead of Ment. Ans could do another find if you'd prefer more information, maybe he could find someone who we least likely think is MH.

Out of GH and HO, I really have no idea which is less likely to be scum. HO has probably garnered less attention, so maybe that makes him slightly more likely.

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 02:47 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 21 July 2011 - 02:42 PM, said:

HO, Ment and you were the best people to jump into or have as a successor as you are a top player and making lots of discussion, Ment is quiet and not around and HO I forgot was playing. GH is safe at the moment I think but i'll find him tomorrow just in case.

Like I said, I can't see much reason to choose HO over GH. It gets hugely WIFOM fast though. HO has received less attention, but then that makes him seem more of an obvious target as opposed to GH, etc...

Grief, on 21 July 2011 - 04:22 PM, said:

Actually, it's probably in MHs favour to be found at this stage. Lynching him's the hard part, not finding him, and if he wasn't found now it gives us better odds of lynching him than we otherwise would have. Also using up a FK means it's risky for us to use them to narrow it down again, because there's a big chance of adding the finders to the pool and hurting the odds.

I think I got most of Grief's posts here for review, left out a couple that didn't seem to have much

Sorry if it turns out to be a wall of text

[Gust Hubb]

Still, doesn't seem like much to go on. I mean he was playing a townie pretty well imo. I guess part of the question is who of the three of us would he choose as a successor. Would he choose HO since HO was cleared last night (but we know from the previous day's conversation that included Grief that a find really doesn't mean anything if the other find on the same night discovers MH)? Would he choose me, since I'm the other newbie and wanted to be searched, despite proving innocent for yesterday as de-facto to Grief's FK night death? Or finally, would he choose Ment, who I don't think has posted much except for that massive paragraph and who seems to be having a rough kind of out-of-it end of week?

[Gust Hubb]

I mean, does anyone know Grief better to have an idea as to his behavior in choosing a successor. I do not have even close to enough experience to make that prediction.

[HiddenOne]

Gust Hubb, on 21 July 2011 - 08:26 PM, said:

I mean, does anyone know Grief better to have an idea as to his behavior in choosing a successor. I do not have even close to enough experience to make that prediction.

Neither do I, GH.

Don't discount that Ment is a veteran.

[Gust Hubb]

True, thanks for mentioning that.

[HiddenOne]

Also, that's meta, so maybe it will give us that don't know his style so well an outside perspective, if that's worth anything

[HiddenOne]

Somebody double check me, Grief doesn't mention Mentalist name anywhere since he was recruited by Venge

[Mentalist]

well, that didn't go so well.

although I thought Grief might be scum.

[Tattersail_]

we have to lynch one of you three and hope to get MH it is too risky to use a find because then me and ansible will become ri. so today we lynch. the question is who?

[Tattersail_]

we need to get MH 3 more times? So that would be getting this done in the right order. to increase our odds we could use a FK on an MH then we need to lynch 2 out of 4 people who would be MH. If we lynch and do finds then we definately get MH once out of the three maybe twice and then it will be three players left with one lynch remaining.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 12. 9 hours and 51 minutes remaining
5 Players still alive: ansible, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: ansible, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Mentalist, Tattersail

[HiddenOne]

Well, if we're going to lynch, I think Gust Hubb has been recruited by MH. He's been all talky-talky up until now, but since yesterday, almost nothing. Maybe he's afraid to say the wrong thing at this critical juncture.


Vote Gust Hubb

[Gust Hubb]

It's hard to be talkative when no one is around.

[Gust Hubb]

Ok, well you seem to be you're old belligerent self HO, so I will use that as weak WIFOM evidence that MH hasn't chosen you. Which leaves Ment, who continues to lie low. I think that since Ment seems to be out of it lately, maybe that would be the sneakiest MH possibility of the three of us. I think then I will:

Vote Mentalist


Essentially, though, I think the decision is going to lay in the FKs hands, who are the only trustworthy 2 of the 5 of us.

[Gust Hubb]

But really, I am waiting on our FKs, who need to be around for us to tie up this game.

[HiddenOne]

OK, I can accept that. We wait on the finders.

Am I really belligerent? I thought I was a nice guy.

[Gust Hubb]

You are a nice guy, you are just very...uh...passionate. But at least you're not snarky.