[Okaros]

Sorrit, on 07 October 2011 - 11:10 AM, said:

Mockra, on 07 October 2011 - 10:39 AM, said:

I guess I should butt in with my little piece of info, though I dare say this might confuse things even more.

At the beginning of this day (by which I mean the game day, not real-life day) I received a notice which said that Osseric was Zhang Xiu, Emperor. Basically, it was the exact same notice that Osseric claims to have got the previous day, but with his name in place of Emurlahn's. After Silanah began attacking Osseric, I presumed that they had either received this notice themselves, or Silanah herself had sent it out.

I haven't immediately jumped on board because, obviously, a notice does not have to contain the truth. As we can already see, both Emur and Osseric can't be the Lu Emperor.

Barghast, on 07 October 2011 - 10:50 AM, said:

On first read it sounded like a deflection away from Osseric spiralling out of control.

Right now, it sounds like it is perhaps more promising to do something with than the Osseric situation, as Silanah condeded themselves as they also reveal they did not act on info they obtained themselves seeing how they aren't a finder. I'll have to re-read which side's arguments I like best of Galain/ Meanas, although I get the strong impression they're both not what they pretend to be. In that case, getting rid of either seems a good plan, and considering the trains, it seems much, much easier to lynch Meanas.


I must say though, the Osseric spat interests me way more at the moment. The reason why I find that so interesting is because on my previous location (somewhere in or near Lu lands), a notice has been released sometime in the past that had the exact same wording as the one Osseric released... except that the name of Emurlahn was not Emurlahn's, but Osseric's .

I guess Silanah is acting on something very much like the notice I got (only he has Osseric as Yan Emperor), seeing how he claims he's not a finder.
Now, either one of these notices was true, or what we have here is a civil servant/military officer (most likely, but that is because I can't see the Usurper tinkering like that) who is releasing notices just to see who reacts on thread. That is actually a fairly smart move, as such players are usually on the same tile (or can move only 1 away) as the guy who released the notice, and therefore remain within their action range.

If Silanah's notice said Osseric is the Yan Emperor, it might have been done to out Lu and Xia players at no cost to the Yan, as Osseric may not even be Yan to begin with. However, I do think Osseric has a big role, seeing how they failed to appreciate how notices can be used.

This is exactly why I posted what I posted above, I received the same notice. Now it seems that Osseric is the only one who received it with Emur's name instead of his, how convenient.


On the Galain/Meanas debate, I think we have struck gold with one of the warlords, and I'm leaning towards it being Galain

Barghast, on 07 October 2011 - 11:24 AM, said:

For me, the choice is actually very simple. Removing a champion or warlord by voting Galain or Meanas would be good, but nailing a (potential) Emperor is worth forthgoing them for a day, in my opinion. Since our consensus so far seems to be that Osseric is fairly likely to be an Emperor based on his reactions, and since I and others have received information that he might be Lu's head honcho, I'll be more than happy to see if we can land this fish and measure its size. The Lu's are no friends of mine (which, if you analyse the vote trains, is already out in the open).

Vote Osseric

These posts pretty much sum up the general feeling. I agree that Meanas, or even Galain, might be warlord(s), but as stated previously, an Emperor is just too good of an opportunity to pass up. I hope the notices that some people received were true. Then again, even without the notices Osseric was a viable lynch target.

remove vote

Vote Osseric


edit: spelling

This post has been edited by Okaros: 07 October 2011 - 02:32 PM

[Sheltatha Lore]

Ok, I have waded through the last few pages and dont feel any smarter, but thats what happens when I try to separate my focus.


There's still time, I will be back to vote and comment









Damn work

[Emurlahn]

Path-Shaper, on 07 October 2011 - 02:21 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on 07 October 2011 - 02:07 PM, said:

hey D'rek, how are we gonna do the long weekend freeze?

It's only a long weekend for some people. I was planning to do same freeze technique as last weekend for Saturday-Sunday (timer stopped, conversations can continue, actions and votes won't process until Sunday night) and have Monday be a usual day, but I'll be lenient on mod-kill timers.

Sound okay?

yeah, I'll be leaving for the airport 2 hours before timeout, and I won'tbe backin school till Tuesday morning.
not sure how much time i'll have to play at home.

[Silanah]

Best night of sleep I've had in a while. What is the long weekend?

[Emurlahn]

Silanah, on 07 October 2011 - 02:46 PM, said:

Best night of sleep I've had in a while. What is the long weekend?

thanksgiving in canadaland



also, my birthday

This post has been edited by Emurlahn: 07 October 2011 - 02:52 PM

[Emurlahn]

thyrlann, Tennes and to a lesser extent galain, all look like they could be deflecting off Osseric.

interesting.

[Silanah]

Emurlahn, on 07 October 2011 - 02:59 PM, said:

thyrlann, Tennes and to a lesser extent galain, all look like they could be deflecting off Osseric.

interesting.

If Meanas and Osseric actually are connected, Meanas dropped a huge mistake to deflect, as well. But I'm not sure.

[Sorrit]

I think Thryllan is definately, the other two i'm not so sure about, they haven't seen the last few votes by Osseric, Mockra, Barghast and Myself, whereas Thryllan did a read up and then decided to vote elsewhere, so he is most assuredly not wanting to vote for Osseric

[Emurlahn]

if Osseric is Lu Emperor, the numbers won't add up. Lu is down 2 already.

[Sorrit]

Emurlahn, on 07 October 2011 - 03:10 PM, said:

if Osseric is Lu Emperor, the numbers won't add up. Lu is down 2 already.

What do you mean?

[Emurlahn]

remember what I said about Yan being bigger then the other factions?

i'm guessing Xia and Lu started with 5-6 people each. Lu lost 2.

if Osseric is lu emperor, and Meanas, thyr, and Tennes are all with him, we're looking at 6 people already.

considering how many people are still to make up their mind (including Ruse, whom I pegged as the most liely Osseric symp), it seems unlikely that they all spoke out already.



mind, this is IF my theory is correct aboiut Yan being bigger because they won their mini.

[Karosis]

i havent been able to catch up and and i am now leaving the office and going to a big staff function...fuck...

from what i can tell from skimming is that there is allot of PM talk and now some messages that have been received?

allot to take in and would need me to catch up properly to make any kind of informed decision.

hopefully i will not be too inebriated tonight.



until later guys

[Hood's Path]

Okay I'm going through the posts as I have about a days worth of material to catch up with. I had to stop and put some thoughts down as I go along before they vanish into the ether to never be found again.

The people getting the most heat at the moment are Osseric, Meanas & Galain. My take so far is that Osseric is being accused of leading the forum and could therefore be an emperor. Meanas is getting heat for making a mistake with some of the mechanics that were clearly stated in the OP. Galain is getting heat from Meanas for needing the OP info to know those mechanics

My thoughts on these cases: Of the three I'm leaning towards the case on Meanas as being more plausible. I'm not convinced he is a warlord but he may have a role that wouldn't know who his emperor is. That is if the warlord factions are only 2 members not 3 and there are a few wildcard players out there. Now Meanas countercase on Galan is interesting. It does smell a bit desperate and is a weak attempt to shift the focus on another player but something about it hits a cord with me so I'll at least be keeping a closer eye on him in the future.

The case on Osseric I'm having a bit more trouble getting behind. In a six person faction game where a number of players know who their leaders are I can easily see the leader sitting back playing safe. If you don't draw attention to yourself you are less likely to be targeted for a lynch. Another reason I don't think he is the emperor is with 6 factions then the odds of pushing a case through on someone within your faction that ends in their lynch would be at worse 25%. That is based on if the numbers are distributed Yan 8, Xia 5, Yu 5, GonZun 3 Ma Chao 3, Sima Yi 1. The worst odds would be 6/25 for the Yan members.

Though I don't believe that he is an emperor I'm tempted to persuit his lynch on the off chance that he might be. If he is lynched and he turns out to be an emperor and he is the emperor that is tied to Sima Yi (a lot of ifs I know) you not only keep one faction weak (SIma Yi at 2) you also take out a leader with unknown abilities.

Okay now back to finishing my catch up.

[Hood's Path]

Wait. Forget what I said about Galain. Missed a post that he made that helps clear up some things for me.

[Omtose]

Path-Shaper, on 06 October 2011 - 09:03 PM, said:

In the summer of Jian Xing 6 (by the Yan calendar), Lu, Yan and Xia were all engaged in battle for northern Jing. Eventually, the Yan forces around Xiang Yang withdrew, leaving Lu and Xia to fight over the city. The next afternoon, clear and sunny, saw both Lu and Xia soldiers alike scaling the walls of Xiang Yang. Shortly after noon, news spread like wildfire throughout the city - soldiers on the walls could see hundreds of ships sailing up the Chang Jiang and the Yan army crossing land to meet it at the shore.

The generals of both sides were skeptical, knowing the Yan did not have any such naval force. When the generals themselves panicked upon seeing the fleet, the soldiers threw away their weapons and deserted the city. With no Lu or Xia to witness, the ships came to shore, but not a single reinforcement stepped out. Instead, the entire Yan army boarded this third of Liu Yao's navy and the ships sailed away again...

I think that this is a special move by either the Yan emperor or the Yan PM. Hazarding a guess I would say that it could involve moving everyone who is Yan on a specific tile far from that tile and out of harms way. The other interesting thing is the name Liu Yao which is the name of the final emperor of the Han.

[Korlat]

Right caught up while eating some dinner.

My feeling at the moment is to vote Osseric, for two main reasons. One is the case that was made on him had some good points and although he has put himself forward from day one it does feel like he has lead somewhat, also I think if he does turn out to be an emperor or PM it gives us a chance to know who other players are, those that have already been connected to him and those trying to deflect the vote from him. The second reason is that with the notices I think it'll be in the back of everyone's mind now that Osseric is an emperor and his CF would give us some information on what to think about those who brought up the notice on him and maybe infer something about the one who sent it.

Meanas' slip up was a bad one but i'm not feeling the case on Galain so much, I think most of us would rather quote the OP than our own PM and it is just as easy, also the rules being as complicated as they are we don't know if between the 3K's the messages differ and would rather not give anything away as to our faction. Out of the two then I would lean more towards Meanas being a possible warlord but being a person that tends to forget rules I worry that it really was just a misremembered accident. Still it is an avenue to explore where warlord's are concerned. The way Meanas reacted to the case against him seemed awfully frantic on the whole.

I'll be around for a few hours, I'll vote before going to bed.

[Hood's Path]

Okay done catching up. Looks like it's currently 8 votes Osseric and 6 for Meanas. For a while the stronger case against Meanas was winning out but with the Notice reveals that people have posted it seems the tided has shifted towards Osseric. Silanah has been mentioned numerous times. I need to to back and reread her posts as I've not seem the connections that people have been making in regards to her. But for now back to the agenda at hand.

Notices that people receive have to be taken with a grain of salt. The number one reason that I think someone would post a Notice is to help build cases against someone the poster wants out. There are many locations on the map which members of different factions reside side by side. Basically every location except the three capitals and Eight Fan. That is on the assumption that there are no roles that can travel to someones location where there isn't already a member of your faction in that square. Since the Lu emperor is mentioned in each of the Notices no matter who the alt associated with it I believe that the Notice was posted in Yong An. Especially since the number of players saying they received the notice seems fairly high and with the assumption that the Yan are the largest fation. There are two possible senarios I see as the reason for the notice.

First a member of the Yan faction did a find on Osseric and he is in fact Zhang Xiu.

Second a member of the Lu faction did a find on Osseric and he came back as a member of the Yan faction. But since he is a finder he new who is emperor's name is and thought that he could sway members of Yan to vote for their own member.

Either way I'm convinced the Osseric is one of either Lu or Yan.

The question is which is it?

I'm going to hold off voting for now. We have a few hours before day times out and it's time to get some work done. Not sure when the weekend freeze will come into effect.

[Emurlahn]

i'm guessing it will be today, after the lynch. the day's supposed to end in like 7 hours, if i'm not mistaken.



i'll have to leave soon. Ill check in around 2 hours prior to timeout to grab my laptop, but then i'll be incommunicado for the rest of the RL day.

Imho, htere are plenty of good reasons to vote Osseric. he's been trying quite desperately to stay alive, while sounding nonchalant about it.
that message about the notice came out of left field. I don't think ohters would have brought it up if he didn't try to use it against me first.

[Mockra]

Hood, on 07 October 2011 - 04:48 PM, said:

Okay done catching up. Looks like it's currently 8 votes Osseric and 6 for Meanas. For a while the stronger case against Meanas was winning out but with the Notice reveals that people have posted it seems the tided has shifted towards Osseric. Silanah has been mentioned numerous times. I need to to back and reread her posts as I've not seem the connections that people have been making in regards to her. But for now back to the agenda at hand.

Notices that people receive have to be taken with a grain of salt. The number one reason that I think someone would post a Notice is to help build cases against someone the poster wants out. There are many locations on the map which members of different factions reside side by side. Basically every location except the three capitals and Eight Fan. That is on the assumption that there are no roles that can travel to someones location where there isn't already a member of your faction in that square. Since the Lu emperor is mentioned in each of the Notices no matter who the alt associated with it I believe that the Notice was posted in Yong An. Especially since the number of players saying they received the notice seems fairly high and with the assumption that the Yan are the largest fation. There are two possible senarios I see as the reason for the notice.

First a member of the Yan faction did a find on Osseric and he is in fact Zhang Xiu.

Second a member of the Lu faction did a find on Osseric and he came back as a member of the Yan faction. But since he is a finder he new who is emperor's name is and thought that he could sway members of Yan to vote for their own member.

Either way I'm convinced the Osseric is one of either Lu or Yan.

The question is which is it?

I'm going to hold off voting for now. We have a few hours before day times out and it's time to get some work done. Not sure when the weekend freeze will come into effect.

You think a case made off of one post is much stronger than a case made off of all-round play, many posts, and several (albeit unverified) notices? Not that I'm trying to shit-stir, but...trying to derail the Osseric lynch much? As it is, I haven't voted yet but I think I'll most likely throw my weight behind the Osseric lynch today, and then we can begin the Meanas-Galain entertainment all over again. I should (hopefully) be back before deadline.

[Korlat]

Emurlahn, on 07 October 2011 - 04:55 PM, said:

i'm guessing it will be today, after the lynch. the day's supposed to end in like 7 hours, if i'm not mistaken.



i'll have to leave soon. Ill check in around 2 hours prior to timeout to grab my laptop, but then i'll be incommunicado for the rest of the RL day.

Imho, htere are plenty of good reasons to vote Osseric. he's been trying quite desperately to stay alive, while sounding nonchalant about it.
that message about the notice came out of left field. I don't think ohters would have brought it up if he didn't try to use it against me first.

I'd almost forgotten that was how the whole notice thing started what with everything since, no one has come out to back it up have they? This of course means little, it could be that Osseric has been set up but then again that is a large chance to take and three people have confirmed getting the same message about him at some point.