[Omtose]

@ korb i agree, but if were lucky and choose the right low poster then theres a chance we will lynch there preped alt force them to stay where they are giving us more information about there timezones and playstyles

[Merrid]

I'm gonna eat here in a minute but I'll be back soon.

[Merrid]

Except...no one's here, so I'm just talking to myself.

[Ruse]

Korabas, on 03 March 2011 - 12:38 AM, said:

Looks like I missed out on the lynch. The kids kept us up half the night, one puking and the other thinking it was play time.

Now that I am halfway awake I have to agree that a FM would most likely target a low poster.I don't think that they would be a low poster themselves as they don't have to hide that they are not the original poster.

Hope the kids feel better, I can commiserate

You may be right about the posts. If leaders are low posting to hide, they become targets for FM the same as regular low posters. The middle ground is becoming larger in number as some are trying to catch up. One of these may be the FM. We may be running out of time.

Still a lot of vacillating about "Do we hunt FM or squash weak faction"

[Ruse]

Omtose, on 03 March 2011 - 01:17 AM, said:

@ korb i agree, but if were lucky and choose the right low poster then theres a chance we will lynch there preped alt force them to stay where they are giving us more information about there timezones and playstyles

Then start a push. Make a case. Try something besides meta if you can.

[Ruse]

Kalse, on 02 March 2011 - 08:06 PM, said:

My apologies, first week back has been somewhat hectic. Reading up over a couple of pages, but then I have to catch a bus, and don't know when I'll have time to post. :S

Interesting, though, that no-one has died at night, iirc? Which would mean the FM(s) have not jumped. So no giveaway as to whose style has changed and no trail to follow.

Also, the talk of two FMs...it's possible, but it could just as easily be an FM-hunter, a jester type role, a cult (though that would be an odd choice for a game that already has faction member swapping), or a few other things. I don't think two FMs are likely, even compared to these other roles.

Kalse, you need to stick around more. *coughlowpostcough* You talk about FMs, NKs, and secret roles then disappear for another day. It's giving me a reason to look at you. Any thing you'd like to share with the class?

[Osseric]

the talk about low-posters is a lot of WIFOM, imho.

FM doesn't HAVE to jump. I recall a game where Grief was an FM and never bothered jumping the entire game, because he simply wasn't getting any pressure whatsoever.

best thing to do would be to take a look at some of the people who have been sitting in the corner quietly up to now, not necessarily low-posting.

apologies for lack of participation, but i'm trying to get a project done, as both me and my partner only have today to work on it.

[Merrid]

Ruse, on 03 March 2011 - 02:48 AM, said:

Korabas, on 03 March 2011 - 12:38 AM, said:

Looks like I missed out on the lynch. The kids kept us up half the night, one puking and the other thinking it was play time.

Now that I am halfway awake I have to agree that a FM would most likely target a low poster.I don't think that they would be a low poster themselves as they don't have to hide that they are not the original poster.

Hope the kids feel better, I can commiserate

You may be right about the posts. If leaders are low posting to hide, they become targets for FM the same as regular low posters. The middle ground is becoming larger in number as some are trying to catch up. One of these may be the FM. We may be running out of time.

Still a lot of vacillating about "Do we hunt FM or squash weak faction"

The last sentence here really sums things up, and at this point without an FM kill I think it's almost pointless to speculate about who it could be. We were wrong about Amp possibly being FM, and I think it's because really there is no evidence for one yet. You say that a low-poster is probably the FM, but that doesn't have to be true. It could easily be a more active poster who's just deceiving us. Hell, YOU could be the FM for all I know.

I have to say at this point we go for the weak faction. Even if we fuck it up, we might accidentally get the FM.

Back in a bit.

[Fener]

Merrid, on 03 March 2011 - 03:43 AM, said:

Ruse, on 03 March 2011 - 02:48 AM, said:

Korabas, on 03 March 2011 - 12:38 AM, said:

Looks like I missed out on the lynch. The kids kept us up half the night, one puking and the other thinking it was play time.

Now that I am halfway awake I have to agree that a FM would most likely target a low poster.I don't think that they would be a low poster themselves as they don't have to hide that they are not the original poster.

Hope the kids feel better, I can commiserate

You may be right about the posts. If leaders are low posting to hide, they become targets for FM the same as regular low posters. The middle ground is becoming larger in number as some are trying to catch up. One of these may be the FM. We may be running out of time.

Still a lot of vacillating about "Do we hunt FM or squash weak faction"

The last sentence here really sums things up, and at this point without an FM kill I think it's almost pointless to speculate about who it could be. We were wrong about Amp possibly being FM, and I think it's because really there is no evidence for one yet. You say that a low-poster is probably the FM, but that doesn't have to be true. It could easily be a more active poster who's just deceiving us. Hell, YOU could be the FM for all I know.

I have to say at this point we go for the weak faction. Even if we fuck it up, we might accidentally get the FM.

Back in a bit.

Have people been vacillating over whether to squash Zakalwe or go for the FM? Unless my reading comprehension is failing me, I've seen no one advocate going for another faction at the expense of looking for the FM, which you seem to be doing Merrid. It's based on lack of evidence since there's likely been no FM jump, true, but this post could be construed as trying to get us to ignore the FM for the moment, which I think is a dangerous road to be walking down. 'Even if we fuck it up we might hit the FM' suggests a casual disregard for the consequences as well. Any smart FM would not be looking like belonging to any faction I would think, much less a weak one, so hoping to hit him based on him appearing Zakalwe is not all that likely a scenario anyway. It also seems like you're trying to stem the increasingly prevailing sentiment of looking towards the low-posters, which you are one of.

[Kalse]

Ruse, on 03 March 2011 - 03:00 AM, said:

Kalse, on 02 March 2011 - 08:06 PM, said:

My apologies, first week back has been somewhat hectic. Reading up over a couple of pages, but then I have to catch a bus, and don't know when I'll have time to post. :S

Interesting, though, that no-one has died at night, iirc? Which would mean the FM(s) have not jumped. So no giveaway as to whose style has changed and no trail to follow.

Also, the talk of two FMs...it's possible, but it could just as easily be an FM-hunter, a jester type role, a cult (though that would be an odd choice for a game that already has faction member swapping), or a few other things. I don't think two FMs are likely, even compared to these other roles.

Kalse, you need to stick around more. *coughlowpostcough* You talk about FMs, NKs, and secret roles then disappear for another day. It's giving me a reason to look at you. Any thing you'd like to share with the class?

Sorry, but RL is interfering with the game. Since it's factional, I'd rather not fuck things up by mod-kill requests or suicidal plays.

The talk of 'secret' roles is already well established earlier on thread, and the lack of any NKs whatsoever is interesting enough to warrant pointing out.

I'd look at people like Silanah, who come on, advocate going for low posters, and then rebound ideas from my post into their own, personally. Seems like the kind of thing someone attempting to steer the game would do, at any rate.

*goes back to dah work*

[Kalse]

*though the question of FM vs faction hunting is a good one. I don't think it has to be an either/or thing, but if it was, I'd suggest that the FM has to find and take over a captain, therefore the longer they are alive, the more chance they have of finding one. On the other hand, the sooner one faction wins the sooner the FM's victory condition becomes unattainable, too. So while it's a good idea to keep an eye out for FM players, obviously (to me, anyway) the FM(s) have chosen not to jump into random alts, and is just searching for a captain to get into, which will make finding said FM(s) very difficult without blind lynching them. Which makes FM hunting kind of pointless, as we have nothing to go on but "this is how an FM would play". Which, as we all know, is a really crappy argument. *shrug*

[Merrid]

Fener, on 03 March 2011 - 04:05 AM, said:

Merrid, on 03 March 2011 - 03:43 AM, said:

Ruse, on 03 March 2011 - 02:48 AM, said:

Korabas, on 03 March 2011 - 12:38 AM, said:

Looks like I missed out on the lynch. The kids kept us up half the night, one puking and the other thinking it was play time.

Now that I am halfway awake I have to agree that a FM would most likely target a low poster.I don't think that they would be a low poster themselves as they don't have to hide that they are not the original poster.

Hope the kids feel better, I can commiserate

You may be right about the posts. If leaders are low posting to hide, they become targets for FM the same as regular low posters. The middle ground is becoming larger in number as some are trying to catch up. One of these may be the FM. We may be running out of time.

Still a lot of vacillating about "Do we hunt FM or squash weak faction"

The last sentence here really sums things up, and at this point without an FM kill I think it's almost pointless to speculate about who it could be. We were wrong about Amp possibly being FM, and I think it's because really there is no evidence for one yet. You say that a low-poster is probably the FM, but that doesn't have to be true. It could easily be a more active poster who's just deceiving us. Hell, YOU could be the FM for all I know.

I have to say at this point we go for the weak faction. Even if we fuck it up, we might accidentally get the FM.

Back in a bit.

Have people been vacillating over whether to squash Zakalwe or go for the FM? Unless my reading comprehension is failing me, I've seen no one advocate going for another faction at the expense of looking for the FM, which you seem to be doing Merrid. It's based on lack of evidence since there's likely been no FM jump, true, but this post could be construed as trying to get us to ignore the FM for the moment, which I think is a dangerous road to be walking down. 'Even if we fuck it up we might hit the FM' suggests a casual disregard for the consequences as well. Any smart FM would not be looking like belonging to any faction I would think, much less a weak one, so hoping to hit him based on him appearing Zakalwe is not all that likely a scenario anyway. It also seems like you're trying to stem the increasingly prevailing sentiment of looking towards the low-posters, which you are one of.

Dude, first....get ready for some quotes:

Osseric, on 01 March 2011 - 11:46 PM, said:

okay
well, now that I actually read the Day 2 scene, the game makes sense ore or less. hooray.

I agree with Silanah in the statement that Amp is unlikely to be Zakalve. at this point that is all my brilliance has to offer.

I also think there might be a connection b/w Sorrit, Amp and Rashan, hidden in that Day 1 "zen" spam. could be signalling. meh.
our options at this point are either to look for Zakalve to beat them when they're down (though that offers Jelungas a chance to get ahead even more with a precise kill or a good hand.
or look for the FM, b/c well, we all want them dead. though they are best hnted once jumped.
or we can tryto find the jelungas to cu their majority down.... all are paths we've followed in these types of games before.

Rashan, on 02 March 2011 - 07:20 AM, said:

In games past, it would seem that GL would be an immediate target rather than Amp or Sil. Time honored faction game tradition is to hammer the side that's down.

And you're right, the math (probably) isn't quite 50/50 between non-Z factions.

Silanah, on 02 March 2011 - 10:19 PM, said:

wow, people are really playing it close to the vest in this game. It's understandable Especially when the card game can have such a dramatic effect on how the play is going to go.

We haven't seen any deaths un accounted for, which would lead me to believe that there has been no FM jump. The question is... where would the FM hide. To this point we have really focused on faction play. I think we need to start looking for a FM before they can find a nice little place to hide.. That is one thing that all 3 teams fear. My gut tells me to start looking for low posters. Kalse immediately jumps to mind. I need to go back and look at some low posters if I can find the time. Today has been crazy at work. I will have most all the day tomorrow to play though.

Rashan, on 02 March 2011 - 11:17 PM, said:

Not that I disagree with you about looking for the FM, Silanah, but suggesting we go away from looking at faction play sounds like "I'm on a team in the lead, wheeeeeee!"

It needed to be said.

K team is in good shape. Z is in bad shape.

I too am wondering at the lack of deaths at night. It doesn't only mean that we don't have an FM change suspect, but that poisoning hasn't overcome heals or captain poison-proofs.

Obviously, your reading comprehension failed you. However, I was also being more general when I said that the question "sums things up" because up until now we have a lot of people speculating who the FM might be, and earlier on with Amp we had people talking about GL being on Team Z which is way down in numbers right now, and possibly voting for him. I was saying that I think FM speculation is pointless right now because we just don't have anything to go on.

You really attacked me out of nowhere though, what's the deal? Yeah, I haven't been able to post as much, but for all the talk about low-posters, none of the speculation fell on me - it's all been on Kalse, really. The only mention of suspicion against me had to do with my random Day 1 post that somehow made me look like the FM. And that has since died. I just don't think the facts line up with what you're saying, dude.

[Merrid]

Also, dude, I wasn't the first to joke about that:

Rashan, on 02 March 2011 - 07:12 AM, said:

Well, I'm not sure about an Amp lynch. It seems more like a freak out and that he isn't likely to be important.

However, since betting on the correct lynch helps, I should

Vote Amp

Bet 10 creds.

Hopefully we luck out and he's the (an?) FM.

What is it about Sil's 50/50 that people don't get? I assume he thinks Amp isn't Z faction, and Sil seems to be admiting he is also not Z faction. Therefore, it's 50/50 that Amp and Sil are in opposite factions. Less than 50/50 with the chance he's FM, obviously. He might be the "green OO" in roulette.

And that's exactly what it was, a joke. I think you need to read the fucking thread.

EDIT: Just to clarify, this post is directed at Fener, not Rashan (which the quote might imply at first glance).

This post has been edited by Merrid: 03 March 2011 - 05:02 AM

[Omtose]

if we do decide to hit the smaller faction, who do we go for?

our best guess is GL because he tried to distract from the Tiam lynch, but do the math

tiam and tellan both came up on team Z both seemed to be lives, if GL knew Tiam then he is lower on team Zs chain which means he is a life

Team Z lost a life in the last hand

all team Z has now is the captain and second, and neither seem to be showing themselves right now

[Omtose]

sorry i meant to point out that the person we thought as being in team Z is probably no longer in it

[Merrid]

Omtose, on 03 March 2011 - 05:07 AM, said:

if we do decide to hit the smaller faction, who do we go for?

our best guess is GL because he tried to distract from the Tiam lynch, but do the math

tiam and tellan both came up on team Z both seemed to be lives, if GL knew Tiam then he is lower on team Zs chain which means he is a life

Team Z lost a life in the last hand

all team Z has now is the captain and second, and neither seem to be showing themselves right now

Interesting, I had forgotten this. Tellann died because Captain J decided to waste him instead of recruit him. Since this was the first hand, and the only other person who died (due to lynch) was Tiam, it's possible Tiam was the last Life and Tellann got thrown in to replace him, but I doubt it (and it invalidates the GL-TeamZ theory). What seems more likely is that Tellann was the last Life, GL was the second and knew Tiam, who was the first Life. With Tellann gone, GL would have been in the pot this round and hence would have been wagered away to Team K.

I realize I basically just restated what Omtose said but I felt I could clarify it a bit.

Also, am I mistaken or have we not seen the captains bet yet? It's possible the bets are in but dibs hasn't seen them yet, or maybe Captain K hasn't decided what to do with his two lives yet (since that would probably hold up the card game and no one has died, either). So GL might not even know if he's been traded or not. Assuming he was Team Z originally, that is.

[Fener]

Merrid, on 03 March 2011 - 05:00 AM, said:

Also, dude, I wasn't the first to joke about that:

Rashan, on 02 March 2011 - 07:12 AM, said:

Well, I'm not sure about an Amp lynch. It seems more like a freak out and that he isn't likely to be important.

However, since betting on the correct lynch helps, I should

Vote Amp

Bet 10 creds.

Hopefully we luck out and he's the (an?) FM.

What is it about Sil's 50/50 that people don't get? I assume he thinks Amp isn't Z faction, and Sil seems to be admiting he is also not Z faction. Therefore, it's 50/50 that Amp and Sil are in opposite factions. Less than 50/50 with the chance he's FM, obviously. He might be the "green OO" in roulette.

And that's exactly what it was, a joke. I think you need to read the fucking thread.

EDIT: Just to clarify, this post is directed at Fener, not Rashan (which the quote might imply at first glance).

The only thing I accused you of was maybe trying to get people to look away from the low-posters (the fact people were suggesting Kalse didn't make the threat to you any less real), the rest was a critique of the idea of ignoring the threat of the FM in general. Does the fact Rashan made the same point about lucking out mitigate yours? Not really. Anyway, my asking if others had been suggesting ignoring the FM had little to do with attacking you, and more an actual inquiry, because I couldn't remember reading them. In my mind your aggression towards me for barely looking at you seemed a bit out of place.

*shrugs* Take it how you will though.

[Osseric]

ignoring the FM is never a good idea.

however, the frustratingly complicated thing is, we have no idea how to look for an FM prior to the jump.
which brings us back to the basics: a faction game. where the safest vote is for one who's not on your team.

[Merrid]

Well, whatever Fener. It seems to me like you were responding in a vacuum, when I felt my post made a lot of sense in the context of the thread. Taking things out of context and ignoring what other people have said seems like an attack, I think. I never suggested ignoring the FM (in fact, everyone seems to agree with me about no current evidence for the FM....), it was only Fener's fallacious post that made it seem like I was suggesting that. Hence my irritation.

EDIT: Added the word "fallacious" for flair.

This post has been edited by Merrid: 03 March 2011 - 05:46 AM

[Omtose]

so are we just waitin on team Ns deciosion on what to do with his won lives?