[Eloth]

How does LP make me a bad guy? I didn't make the set up, how is it my fault I got LP.

[Rashan]

Barghast, on 14 October 2010 - 11:04 PM, said:

Source: http://forum.malazan...ndpost&p=800119

OK, here's what I've got... please note that due to FMs, some of these are guesses.

• Necron (1)
  • Eloth, Lynched Day 5 (failed) - seems extremely likely, who else is going to have a LP other than maybe the Cult Leader and his words seemed prophetic shortly before 3 Xenos died. Korv voted Eloth briefly, too, and I believe Korv was an FM via D'riss.... possible Korv knew Eloth couldn't be possessed and needed an extra day to prep/jump
• Eldar (3)
  • Sukul Ankhadu, Lynched Day 3, "Xeno" - I found him unlikely to be Chaos (http://forum.malazan...ndpost&p=800689), possible he's Tyranid but he offered no defense at all other than to try and point out both Chaos and Korv (possible he knew?)
  • Karatallid, Killed Night 3 by Barghast, "Xeno"
  • Tellan, Killed Night 5 by ?????, "Xeno" - All Eldar are dead, process of elimination
• Chaos (2)
  • ????? > Korvalain > D'riss - Based on previous theory, D'riss jumped into Korv who just jumped somewhere else... or maybe he was killed, not sure
  • ????? > Galayn Lord, Killed Night 5, "Xeno" - Not on same team as Karat, Sukul (lynch votes from Day 2), I think he hasn't been able to jump all game and just got one off, or maybe he was killed
• Tyranid (1-2)
  • Ampelas - process of elimination, everyone else is accounted for
• Humans (10-11)
  • Silanah - Vigged Day 1 by ?????, "Space Marine"
  • Olar Ethil - Modkilled Day 2, "Human"
  • Meanas - Lynched Day 2, "Human"
  • Tulas Shorn - Killed Night 2 by ?????, "Human"
  • Korvalain - Possessed Night 2 by D'riss, "Human" - D'riss's CF was "Human" and I believe he jumped into Korvalain on Night 2
  • Liosan, Killed Night 3 by ?????, "Human"
  • Osseric, Killed Night 4 by ?????, "Human"
  • Kalse, Lynched Day 4, "Xeno" - Seems highly likely he was recruited, statements from Rashan, Osseric, and Alkend support theory that Kalse may have been a squad leader
  • Barghast
  • Alkend
  • Rashan

I do not know if Alkend or Rashan are still Human but I believe they started Human... that fits and makes us 11 strong. Eldar could have won if their last member wasn't killed.

Note, I'm not certain on Karatallid, Tellan, GL, and Ampelas's placement... possible they were swapped around a bit (Ampelas would be either Chaos or Tyranid, though, not Eldar otherwise he'd win).

On the FMs, I had Driss pegged as human early, so not sure you have the right person jumping to Korv. Also, if your guesses at roles are correct, at least one of GL and Korv likely died last night. I was not possessed, you do not seem to be unless someone has really been studying your previous posts, and I doubt either the killer or cult recruiter would be an easy target for possession. That leaves Alk as the lone likely possession target.

[Rashan]

Eloth, on 15 October 2010 - 12:01 AM, said:

How does LP make me a bad guy? I didn't make the set up, how is it my fault I got LP.

It comes down to the fact that there is one role that it is very likely had LP, and we have not eliminated that role yet. You had an LP. I am willing to remove three of the five remaining players from having that role (Barghast, Alkend and myself).

[Rashan]

Barghast, on 14 October 2010 - 11:21 PM, said:

Figures 3 low posters would be in the survivors > <

Unless someone has more info about Tyranid, I think we have to lynch Eloth (Necron suspicion) or Ampelas (Tyranid suspicion) today. Anyone want to fess up to the kills last night?

The quick summary:

Eloth cannot win tonight, unless there are multiple kills again
The cult may be able to win tonight
The FMs can win tonight if two are still alive

Without knowing why people died last night, the decision is a bit tougher. eg. if the desperation move you suggested Eloth may have earlier is an until lynched or end of game thing we have to lynch him today. If it is not or does not exist, we should probably lynch someone else. In the latter case, Eloth would be the only possible remaining scum faction that cannot win tonight.

Basically, without some goofy mechanics going on, we can lynch Eloth tomorrow and he will not win (yes, that calls the possibility of a second LP goofy). There is no sure thing, but the best odds may be to leave Eloth for tomorrow.

[Rashan]

It would be nice to see someone around...anyone?

Bah.

There is a lot of time yet and still a few people to hear from, so I am not voting yet. I am leaning towards not voting Eloth tonight, as noted above.

[Barghast]

I'm here but only briefly... posting times are going to make this kind of hard, I think.

@Rashan, you may have had D'riss pegged as Human but I'm pretty certain Tulas was Human, which is why I have D'riss as my big question mark. Plus I still firmly believe D'riss took over Korv, I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming. Did he take over you last night? Heh heh. As a side note, if both Korv and Tellan were FM and "got out" last night (into you and Alkend presumably), then it is only 1 of me left o.o.

I definitely want to hear from Alkend and Ampleas today before voting... although I'm a little worried about leaving Eloth free on "his word" and "our speculation" that he didn't kill all 3 people last night. But we may have to play the odds at this point.

[Barghast]

Remember Chaos wins immediately at 50%... so the wrong lynch gives it to them if there are 2 of em alive.

If we can get some confirmation that some of you other guys killed off Tellan/GL then we could maybe figure out who is or isn't lying... maybe.

[Rashan]

Barghast, on 15 October 2010 - 04:55 AM, said:

I'm here but only briefly... posting times are going to make this kind of hard, I think.

@Rashan, you may have had D'riss pegged as Human but I'm pretty certain Tulas was Human, which is why I have D'riss as my big question mark. Plus I still firmly believe D'riss took over Korv, I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming. Did he take over you last night? Heh heh. As a side note, if both Korv and Tellan were FM and "got out" last night (into you and Alkend presumably), then it is only 1 of me left o.o.

I definitely want to hear from Alkend and Ampleas today before voting... although I'm a little worried about leaving Eloth free on "his word" and "our speculation" that he didn't kill all 3 people last night. But we may have to play the odds at this point.

At this point whether it was Driss or Tulas who took over Korv is almost academic. Either way, it should not change the outcome of the game. And no, nobody took me over last night.

And yes, as you address it both here and in your next post, hearing from Alkend and Ampelas would be nice. In terms of who killed who, I have not killed anyone all game. Had I the chance I would have, but alas such abilities were not granted me.

I realise chaos win at 50%, I stated it a couple posts above. This is one of the reasons I see for not automatically voting for Eloth. It is a bad situation all around. If we have two FMs , a cult recruiter and/or two cult members or Eloth has more than one kill, town can lose tonight.

[Barghast]

Well if Eloth isn't getting the vote, who would you name as candidates? There aren't many of us left > <

[Path-Shaper]

THis mod is going to bed. play nicely, everyone!

-ment.

[Rashan]

After rereading the thread, here is a refined take then:

I am fairly certain that Alk started human.

Ampelas was the first to vote Kalse after Osserc's reveal, so I doubt he is cult. Distancing from a recruit with a mid to late vote? Sure. Being the first vote on the train? Unlikely. Especially since the presumption on your part was that Ampelas started as the recruiter and hence would know whom he has recruited. The info from Osserc pretty much stated that Kalse was recruited/taken the night before, so there was little chance that the recruit had been possessed since. Considering that Ampelas was also posting arguments in favour of lynching Kalse prior to the train gaining any steam, I cannot see him being the cult leader.

If we take the time Osserc received the info as when Kalse was recruited, that leaves a few possible cult recruiters; Eloth, GL, Korv, Tellan, Alkend or you. Alkend started human, but there is no reason that the recruiting ability could not have been passed to him after his recruiter's death. You fall into the same category. GLs early vote on the Osserc train makes him the likeliest in my opinion.

[Rashan]

Bah, I've almost convinced myself now that we started with 12 humans. In which case the 50% +1 for the eldar could also be called both. My take on who to vote for is going to depend on what I hear from others as I am staring to think the odds may be in favour of lynching Eloth next afterall.

[Barghast]

Bleh, I knew I'd miss some obvious details, good points all around. One of the downsides of posting so much is that I have a lot to sift through when I'm looking over my old posts. I think all of that stuff you're talking about came after my analysis, since that was prior to Osseric revealing on Kalse.

I also hadn't considered Kalse's recruitment as being a possible trigger for the recruitment, probably because I put Liosan as the person that triggered that message... it's quite possible you're correct. Liosan never changed his posting habits but it is possible he was an original FM and finally changed Night 3 (and there were no other deaths). That throws off plenty of my math.

Your deductions are pretty sound but that places GL as the original recruiter and now Ampelas is a giant question mark... was he originally Human but replaced by Liosan?

[Rashan]

I would have to wade back through the thread to reply intelligently, but it is time for me turn in. Hopefully hearing from Amp and Alk will help shed some light on things.

[Barghast]

Also, I'm seriously exhausted and ready to pass out... I know we have a lot of time and I'm on a lot so I'm not worried about getting a vote in, but at some point a decision will have to be made and then people will have to start laying down votes across all 24 time zones, which may take a while.

I think if it's 1 Human left, I've already lost unless I get some kind of miraculous help with NKs to somehow eliminate everyone else in one night. If it's 2 Humans, then there's a decent chance of winning, but we gotta decide which faction has to be killed first... Necron may be able to kill us, Tyranid can recruit us, Chaos may have a kill or possession ready but I'm not sure... I believe any Chaos shifted last night, I don't think any are ready to go, so it's only a loss if there are 2 and we don't lynch one.

[Ampelas]

I don't think GL was the cult leader. He had an early vote, but then later switched over when there was no need to.

Barhast has covered some of this stuff, I want to go over it myself to make sure my thoughts are in order

After we lynch there are four people

Eldar - eliminated
Chaos - win if they have two
Tyranid - win if they have two
Necron - win if they have two (unlikely) or some sort of multi-kill during the night

There are a lot of unknowns in that and in all likelihood the game could end today. We could be lucky though and make it through to tomorrow. The best lynch is the one that maximises that luck.

Eloth - more than likely necron, possibly cult recruiter*.
Alkend - possible recruit or FM
Barghast - possible recruit**
Ampelas - possible recruit** or FM***
Rashan - possible recruit or FM

* Eloth's LP does indicate more towards necron than anything else. However, I do not want to chuck Osseric (and partly my) assessment out the window. There is still a chance that the cult recruiter would have an LP.
** only possible if Eloth is the recruiter and got a recruit last night.
*** I'm not

Between Rashan and Alkend, Rashan is more likely to be a recruit. Alkend's hesitation stemmed from the fact that Kalse was his squad leader. I did not get that impression from Rashan. If Alkend and Rashan were both recruits, Eloth is not the recruiter.

With that in mind Rashan or Eloth are the best lynches today. That overlap gives us the chance to hit one of the three factions that could win today.

The way I see it, there are more than likely two Chaos OR two Tyrannid. If there are -EDIT two of each EDIT-, we are screwed anywhichway. The person with the greatest overlap between those two factions is Rashan, so I would feel most possible placing my vote there. That still leaves a possible second LP or multikill giving Eloth the game, but I feel those are less likely than the chances of there being two of either Chaos or Tyrannid.

Edit - left out a bit of sentence

This post has been edited by Ampelas: 15 October 2010 - 07:28 AM

[Alkend]

Ok ... we lost three last night. I am going to read through as much of the remaining players posts to get as good a feel as I can on who's left. For fuck sake don't anyone place a vote!

[Barghast]

Ampelas, on 15 October 2010 - 07:26 AM, said:

I don't think GL was the cult leader. He had an early vote, but then later switched over when there was no need to.

Barhast has covered some of this stuff, I want to go over it myself to make sure my thoughts are in order

After we lynch there are four people

Eldar - eliminated
Chaos - win if they have two
Tyranid - win if they have two
Necron - win if they have two (unlikely) or some sort of multi-kill during the night

There are a lot of unknowns in that and in all likelihood the game could end today. We could be lucky though and make it through to tomorrow. The best lynch is the one that maximises that luck.

Eloth - more than likely necron, possibly cult recruiter*.
Alkend - possible recruit or FM
Barghast - possible recruit**
Ampelas - possible recruit** or FM***
Rashan - possible recruit or FM

* Eloth's LP does indicate more towards necron than anything else. However, I do not want to chuck Osseric (and partly my) assessment out the window. There is still a chance that the cult recruiter would have an LP.
** only possible if Eloth is the recruiter and got a recruit last night.
*** I'm not

Between Rashan and Alkend, Rashan is more likely to be a recruit. Alkend's hesitation stemmed from the fact that Kalse was his squad leader. I did not get that impression from Rashan. If Alkend and Rashan were both recruits, Eloth is not the recruiter.

With that in mind Rashan or Eloth are the best lynches today. That overlap gives us the chance to hit one of the three factions that could win today.

The way I see it, there are more than likely two Chaos OR two Tyrannid. If there are -EDIT two of each EDIT-, we are screwed anywhichway. The person with the greatest overlap between those two factions is Rashan, so I would feel most possible placing my vote there. That still leaves a possible second LP or multikill giving Eloth the game, but I feel those are less likely than the chances of there being two of either Chaos or Tyrannid.

Edit - left out a bit of sentence

Tyranid won't win if they have 2 and we lynch a non Tyranid... but they will win if a non-Tyranid is also NK'd. They only win with majority. Chaos can win at 50%, so if there are 2 Chaos, then it's a win for them immediately upon a non-Chaos lynch.

If you buy Osseric's reveals as 100% truthful, then you have to assume he is also correct about Rashan. He said Rashan 100% guaranteed started Human. I'm sure he isn't indicating that Rashan is his squad leader, I believe that was probably Liosan based on some of the things he (Osseric) said. However, it's quite possible that if he got slipped disks based upon who KILLED the various squad leaders, maybe Rashan killed a squad leader... and when the disk came to Osseric, he found out that Rashan was Human. Just a guess, but Rashan would have to fess up in order for it to be true.

[Alkend]

Quit with the naive act Barghast. You know as well as I do that Osseric was our finder. When he said someone started Human, he was saying his find came up human, but was a few days ago. He only came forward with the "disk" storys when he had to share a Xeno find.

[Barghast]

Tapper, on 13 October 2010 - 04:55 PM, said:

There are 7 minutes left in the day.

10 of you live still.
you need 6 votes to lynch, or 5 to go to night

5 votes for Kalse (Ampelas, Osseric, Tellan, Barghast, Galayn Lord)
4 votes for osseric (Rashan, Kalse, Korvalain, Alkend)


the following people have not voted: Eloth

There's also this matter left to resolve...

Eloth was hands off for most of the game. I already indicated that that was a perfect way for a Necron to play, since it kept him out of most controversy.

You can't fault Kalse for voting Osseric, his back was to the ropes. Korvalain was definitely scum at this point in the game. I still think he was Human to start and replaced by D'riss, but regardless, at this point Korv was 100% scum. However, he also voted Kalse and finished the lynch, so we have to assume he wasn't on Kalse's team. I believe GL was on the train earlier but switched when it was stalling out. Seems a little weird though if he was the cult leader and Kalse was a cult recruit.

Rashan and Alkend both hinted that Kalse was a squad leader, at least to start the game.