[Mockra]

Silanah, on 25 May 2010 - 05:18 PM, said:

@Mockra, regarding your Meanas case, did you notice the the hilarious contradiction in him saying to look at the high posters and then making a case on a lower poster than him? I thought it was funny.

EDIT - grammar fail. Must be tired.

Yeah I ignored it, but for a good reason. I was coming to the conclusion that I may not end up voting for the two people I had planned on it, so I would have to also have to have been pointed out to having a contradiction at some point

[Silanah]

Olar Ethil, on 25 May 2010 - 05:18 PM, said:

Silanah, on 25 May 2010 - 05:12 PM, said:

Olar Ethil, on 25 May 2010 - 05:00 PM, said:

Mockra, on 25 May 2010 - 04:56 PM, said:

@Olar, that's a good thought. How do you reconcile Rashan's mystery vote/remove vote business if he's scum?

Well, even if you are scum, you are subject to the whim of other people's actions. Say a Chinese had the ability to direct a vote ( I am just guessing here, they are the most closely tied to voting in their VC's)

if a spy had this ability, and used it on a scum, if that scum didn't have specific defenses against that ability, he might be forced to vote how the spy wanted him to.


It's a stretch, but if you guard a scum, he's still guarded. If you direct a scum to vote, I imagine he would still be forced to vote.

EDIT: added the word 'to" and an "m" to correct a spelling mistake.

Thing is though, Rashan's vote was directed off of Shadow. We don't know where it ended up (unless I missed it somehow), but I would hazard the only other target was Galain really, so what point would taking off one vote do (since we actually got about 2-3 more regardless)? And if Rashan is scum (or the person directing him is), then why would he take a vote off someone who is as far we know innocent?

EDIT - changed 'was' to 'is'. musn't mix up tenses

Perhaps they knew shadow was innocent, or Chinese?? ( if it is a chinese action). He might have been protecting his team? I don't know. ya got me there.

A Chinese Syndicate member is not the same as a Chinese Spy. They aren't on the same team, so the man directing Rashan's vote would have no interest in protecting Shadow because he was Chinese or innocent.

Then again, could be it's not even a scum ability, and if it's not, your scenario makes sense.

[Silanah]

Mockra, on 25 May 2010 - 05:21 PM, said:

So here's the scene people are using to tie the bald man to the Syndicate:

Quote

The old man leaned back in the thick white leather of the backseat of the Mercedes, and looked sternly at the other two sharing the cabin with him, a bald man and a young woman with features as fine as porcelain. "Listen, you youngsters. You should be grateful that I have accepted responsibility for you and our mission. If I didn't, the two of you would probably be dead already. Now, here's what I want you to do. We will soon arrive in Kyoto. When you are there, you go to a simple hotel – and no sharing rooms! – check in, and you wait there for my call. No decadent foreign spy will search in such a place."
He sniffed, then shouted: "driver! Drop these two at the nearest busstop. They can find their way. Then to my hotel. Call my secretary and servant and tell them that I do not want to be disturbed until after dinner."

Now I am starting to see the real logic in this case. The "old man" is in the car with the "bald man." We already believe the "Old man" to be Syndicate. However, that would indicate that the "Old Man" forced his own agent's vote on Day 1 (possibly unforced it on Day 2, if the Bald man was the technology hater).

So now why do we think it's more likely that Rashan is the bald man than the man in the white suit?

Olar talks up the page about Rashan denying it flat out, but he could very well be lying. Can't remember the reason though...I'll go take a look.

[Olar Ethil]

We can't assume that the person switching up the votes is Scum or spy. Just have to look at who would benifit.

*********************-------this is for argument I am not making acccusations-----------------*********


Say Rashan is scum, he is voting for shadow, cause he knows shadow isn't scum. Our mystery vote changer could be a chinese spy trying to save his team.

The Mystery vote changer could also be scum, in which case... I am not sure why he would change the Rashan vote. As it turns out, shadow wasn't scum ( unless he had CF protection). It makes little sense for the vote changer to switch the vote.


I guess this leads me to believe the vote changer is a Chinese Spy, though this, in and of itself, doesn't necessarily implicate rashan. He might just be the random guy chosen, the fact that it's happened to him twice...maybe Rashan is the extra Alt? low posting, a puppet for the mystery vote changer? idk... now I am getting crazy

[Mockra]

We only have seen the "Man in the White Suit" once, but we have seen a man in an Italian Suit and we've heard about a man in expensive clothes... they could be the same.

Quote

They made an unlikely pair, the long faced man approaching middle age, absorbed in the match, and the young man with the expensive taste in clothes, leaning back as he made his moves and studying everything but the board. “Why are we playing this game?” he asked at some point, with a wink to a lovely young Japanese student.
“I need to know how you think if we are to work together,” the other answered.
“Weird. All you’ll learn is that I have no patience for chess.”

Quote

“Hi there,” she said. “Nice shirt.”
He grunted, smoothing his Italian suit. “Why does EVERYONE mention the shirt?” he asked, complaining.
“It is a rather bright pink. Now, on to business, we haven’t got all day for pleasantries.”

The chess man is playing with the expensive suit man. The Italian suit man meets up with a woman, most likely from the earlier scene:

Quote

The diner was clean and deserted. She threw a look on the menu on display in the ticket machine, then decided to just have a coffee. Pretty good stuff, for such an unassuming place. She looked at the only other person present, a young girl who looked not a year older than fifteen, and who would use the thirty thousand yen on extravagant clothes, most likely. She felt a pang of pity at the need to dress up in pink and violet and green. The money would buy her a quality bag – not Vuitton, of course, but good leather and design. Each to his own, though, and in the end, the information she was about to receive about the man in the pink shirt more than made up for the fashion disaster soon to hit the streets. Sometimes, the ends really did justify the means.

[Mockra]

I have to go to a meeting... hopefully it won't take long.

[Olar Ethil]

Mockra, on 25 May 2010 - 05:21 PM, said:

So here's the scene people are using to tie the bald man to the Syndicate:

Quote

The old man leaned back in the thick white leather of the backseat of the Mercedes, and looked sternly at the other two sharing the cabin with him, a bald man and a young woman with features as fine as porcelain. "Listen, you youngsters. You should be grateful that I have accepted responsibility for you and our mission. If I didn't, the two of you would probably be dead already. Now, here's what I want you to do. We will soon arrive in Kyoto. When you are there, you go to a simple hotel – and no sharing rooms! – check in, and you wait there for my call. No decadent foreign spy will search in such a place."
He sniffed, then shouted: "driver! Drop these two at the nearest busstop. They can find their way. Then to my hotel. Call my secretary and servant and tell them that I do not want to be disturbed until after dinner."

Now I am starting to see the real logic in this case. The "old man" is in the car with the "bald man." We already believe the "Old man" to be Syndicate. However, that would indicate that the "Old Man" forced his own agent's vote on Day 1 (possibly unforced it on Day 2, if the Bald man was the technology hater).

So now why do we think it's more likely that Rashan is the bald man than the man in the white suit?

One thing to point out here. This could also be a meeting between JP Spies. The mention of "Foreign" Spies might imply that they all are natives to this land. Doesn't mean that 1 or more can't be scum, but it could indicate a meeting of the JP team.

[Olar Ethil]

Mockra, on 25 May 2010 - 05:27 PM, said:

We only have seen the "Man in the White Suit" once, but we have seen a man in an Italian Suit and we've heard about a man in expensive clothes... they could be the same.

Quote

They made an unlikely pair, the long faced man approaching middle age, absorbed in the match, and the young man with the expensive taste in clothes, leaning back as he made his moves and studying everything but the board. "Why are we playing this game?" he asked at some point, with a wink to a lovely young Japanese student.
"I need to know how you think if we are to work together," the other answered.
"Weird. All you'll learn is that I have no patience for chess."

Quote

"Hi there," she said. "Nice shirt."
He grunted, smoothing his Italian suit. "Why does EVERYONE mention the shirt?" he asked, complaining.
"It is a rather bright pink. Now, on to business, we haven't got all day for pleasantries."

The chess man is playing with the expensive suit man. The Italian suit man meets up with a woman, most likely from the earlier scene:

Quote

The diner was clean and deserted. She threw a look on the menu on display in the ticket machine, then decided to just have a coffee. Pretty good stuff, for such an unassuming place. She looked at the only other person present, a young girl who looked not a year older than fifteen, and who would use the thirty thousand yen on extravagant clothes, most likely. She felt a pang of pity at the need to dress up in pink and violet and green. The money would buy her a quality bag – not Vuitton, of course, but good leather and design. Each to his own, though, and in the end, the information she was about to receive about the man in the pink shirt more than made up for the fashion disaster soon to hit the streets. Sometimes, the ends really did justify the means.

To me the last quote is the Woman doing a find on the Pink shirted man.

[Silanah]

[quote name='Tellan' date='25 May 2010 - 09:19 PM' timestamp='1274786391' post='764800']
[quote name='Path-Shaper' date='19 May 2010 - 08:16 PM' timestamp='1274296612' post='763022']
The man with the heavy eyebrows examined the car. An old model, armoured, with a diplomatic flag attached. Clearly the old buzzard left nothing to chance and would only go out when protected. Politicians… He switched a stiletto open, and cut all four tires, deeply. Bastards were incredibly hard to cut, but this would prevent the old man from going out tonight.
[/quote]

[quote name='Path-Shaper' date='19 May 2010 - 09:41 PM' timestamp='1274301665' post='763075']
[quote name='Path-Shaper' date='19 May 2010 - 11:11 PM' timestamp='1274307108' post='763102']
She lit one cigarette with the stump of another, and had been doing that since breakfast. The local muscle had been bent carefully to her needs, and was now hers to command. It is good to have friends in high places... and dangerous. A nod sent one of them on his way. Expendable cannon fodder, and while the one he was to chase was not much to look at, neither was she, and look at how that played out. She blew three smoke circles. Fuck, another pack emptied.
[/quote]

[quote]The old man hissed a few syllables into the phone. "Remember your duty, you little runt! I am the one who tells you where and when to apply pressure, not you, you little bald monkey!"

~~

The car stopped next to the man in the white suit. "He wants you to go here."
The other frowned. "He can ask me. Nicely."
"He could," the driver replied. "But he does not."
The other sniffed, then kicked a street lantern. This was not worth getting into a fight with the bureaucracy for."
[/quote]

[quote]
"Don't just stand there!" she spat at the lackey. "Gather the men. We have to pay someone a visit." He ran. "But first," she said, "I need a cigarette."

A new alt joins the game: Barghast.
[/quote]

[quote] The bald man i the coarse clothes waited for her at the cigarette machine. "Number D3," he said. She scowled. "What he fuck, are you clairvoyant or something?"
"Merely observing that you dismissed all lightly colored packages at once, and looked for a red one."
"Fucking hell, you a detective or something?"
"Observation is not tied to police work, but to inner rest."
"Yeah, sorry. Look, let me get those ciggies and we'll talk, I feel antsy without them."
[/quote]

[quote] He called the other on the toilet, and the conversation was short, angry, and punctuated by the sound of water sprayed on porcelain, then a loud flush, followed by a short yelp as the toilet started to spray water as if it was a bidet. "Fucking technomaniacs," the receiver muttered, before giving in to the demand. [/quote]

Right, these are the people in the scenes that I think are most likely to be syndicate. I see Driss has covered some of them in his case against Ruse. I'm not sure if the scenes I've noted with blue concern the same person in the ones that I've highlighted in green. Both seem to involve orders and are most likely the ones linked with the vote changing mechanics. The woman who smokes a lot is obviously syndicate.

One person should know who the politician is - whoever has heavy eyebrows, and another is probably in a lover relationship with ciggie lady. Although that person is possibly syndicate by the tone of the scene. I'm not suggesting that either of them come out and reveal, but it's useful info to highlight none the less.

The bald dude is more than likely Rashan - I'm still undecided on whether or not he would be syndicate if mr green is - forcing your teammates to change votes would be very WIFOM with all the attention it gives them. I havent seen mention of someone being bald in any of the other scenes, so there's not much info to try tell either way.
[/quote]
This is the part where Tellann says Rashan is 'clearly' the bald dude, but I can't see why. Maybe because the green appears twice, and is being called twice rather than be told by a driver once. I dunno.

[Meanas]

Right I'm back.

About Rashan mystery votes a few possibilities I can think of, either someone is setting him up and make it look like we can't trust Rashan for a vote as it will be interferred with. But it just seems a waste of an ability to keep hitting the same player. Unless the guy who is using said ability knows something about Rashan that we don't. Or the guy with vote tampering abilities just picked Rashan out of the hat and is just doing the same action to create wifom.

Or based on the fact the second vote tampering resulted Rashan's vote being removed from the shadow train, which convinced the few people holding back to go and vote for him as it looked like someone was trying to save shadow. Butsuch an action was more likely to get shaow lynched and it benefitted scum more. If we go with that the vote tampering abilities is a scum abilities, then is there a reason to keep hitting Rashan, one possibility is that it is his own abilities he is using on himself and he is bluffing us, or the person who has vote altering abilities has been told that some people are immune to such actions, he was successful with Rashan the first time and he is playing safe.

Or scum know each other and it an intentional play. Most people wouldn't do that sort of action as it means fucking a bit with your own team mate, but if the scum communicate then it very likely a plan to make one of them less of a target for a lynch.

Rashan post count on day 3 shot up from 13 to 36 posts, ok day 3 included thursday, friday and monday. That would mean in a nice spread he makes around 8 posts a day, not that much of an increase compared 13 posts for the first two game days which means 6-7 posts a day. But on the Thursday and Friday stretch he made 7 posts, and on monday 16 posts in 77 minutes. That a big jump in posting rate. The fact that jump puts him in the middle of the posters and a less likely candidate for a low poster lynch. If we couple that with what appears to be a scum action interfering in his voting (how often do you see a game where fellow team mates interfere in each other actions and so forth) then Rashan is not the name that comes to mind when it comes to looking at who is low posting and thus who may be the best lynch out of that list.

Basically the cf for Rashan or anyone else for the matter is a 50/50 they are either a spy or a scum player, forget about nationality for the moment. We should only consider nationality later in the game to ensure that we have eliminated one scum player for each nationality to be on good form. Also it later in the game when we should consider playing factions, at this point we should be playing as town vs scum.

Vote Rashan

[Silanah]

Olar Ethil, on 25 May 2010 - 05:33 PM, said:

Mockra, on 25 May 2010 - 05:27 PM, said:

We only have seen the "Man in the White Suit" once, but we have seen a man in an Italian Suit and we've heard about a man in expensive clothes... they could be the same.

Quote

They made an unlikely pair, the long faced man approaching middle age, absorbed in the match, and the young man with the expensive taste in clothes, leaning back as he made his moves and studying everything but the board. "Why are we playing this game?" he asked at some point, with a wink to a lovely young Japanese student.
"I need to know how you think if we are to work together," the other answered.
"Weird. All you'll learn is that I have no patience for chess."

Quote

"Hi there," she said. "Nice shirt."
He grunted, smoothing his Italian suit. "Why does EVERYONE mention the shirt?" he asked, complaining.
"It is a rather bright pink. Now, on to business, we haven't got all day for pleasantries."

The chess man is playing with the expensive suit man. The Italian suit man meets up with a woman, most likely from the earlier scene:

Quote

The diner was clean and deserted. She threw a look on the menu on display in the ticket machine, then decided to just have a coffee. Pretty good stuff, for such an unassuming place. She looked at the only other person present, a young girl who looked not a year older than fifteen, and who would use the thirty thousand yen on extravagant clothes, most likely. She felt a pang of pity at the need to dress up in pink and violet and green. The money would buy her a quality bag – not Vuitton, of course, but good leather and design. Each to his own, though, and in the end, the information she was about to receive about the man in the pink shirt more than made up for the fashion disaster soon to hit the streets. Sometimes, the ends really did justify the means.

To me the last quote is the Woman doing a find on the Pink shirted man.

Huh? To me the last quote looks more like the tiny girl in the apron from way back. The pink shirt guy (Italian suit dude) looks like forming a lover relationship.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 3 hours and 40 minutes remaining

20 Players still alive: D'riss, Eloth, Fener, Galain, Galayn Lord, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Liosan, Meanas, Mockra, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Spite, Tellan

11 votes to lynch, 10 votes to go to night.

3 Votes for Rashan ( Eloth, D'riss, Meanas )
1 Vote for Tellan ( Fener )
1 Vote for Meanas ( Galayn Lord )

Players not voted: Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Liosan, Mockra, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Rashan, Ruse, Serc, Sheltatha Lore, Silanah, Spite, Tellan

[Olar Ethil]

[

Quote

The diner was clean and deserted. She threw a look on the menu on display in the ticket machine, then decided to just have a coffee. Pretty good stuff, for such an unassuming place. She looked at the only other person present, a young girl who looked not a year older than fifteen, and who would use the thirty thousand yen on extravagant clothes, most likely. She felt a pang of pity at the need to dress up in pink and violet and green. The money would buy her a quality bag – not Vuitton, of course, but good leather and design. Each to his own, though, and in the end, the information she was about to receive about the man in the pink shirt more than made up for the fashion disaster soon to hit the streets. Sometimes, the ends really did justify the means.

I see it as the lady is in the Diner. She is about to give 30,000 yen to a youg girl that in her opinion, is likely to waste it on flashy/bad clothes. Seems she is an understated woman. She is paying the girl for information on the man in pink. (See underlined) Hence "information ABOUT then man in the pink shirt.


or am I way off here?

[Silanah]

Meanas, on 25 May 2010 - 05:35 PM, said:

Right I'm back.

About Rashan mystery votes a few possibilities I can think of, either someone is setting him up and make it look like we can't trust Rashan for a vote as it will be interferred with. But it just seems a waste of an ability to keep hitting the same player. Unless the guy who is using said ability knows something about Rashan that we don't. Or the guy with vote tampering abilities just picked Rashan out of the hat and is just doing the same action to create wifom.

Or based on the fact the second vote tampering resulted Rashan's vote being removed from the shadow train, which convinced the few people holding back to go and vote for him as it looked like someone was trying to save shadow. Butsuch an action was more likely to get shaow lynched and it benefitted scum more. If we go with that the vote tampering abilities is a scum abilities, then is there a reason to keep hitting Rashan, one possibility is that it is his own abilities he is using on himself and he is bluffing us, or the person who has vote altering abilities has been told that some people are immune to such actions, he was successful with Rashan the first time and he is playing safe.

Or scum know each other and it an intentional play. Most people wouldn't do that sort of action as it means fucking a bit with your own team mate, but if the scum communicate then it very likely a plan to make one of them less of a target for a lynch.

Rashan post count on day 3 shot up from 13 to 36 posts, ok day 3 included thursday, friday and monday. That would mean in a nice spread he makes around 8 posts a day, not that much of an increase compared 13 posts for the first two game days which means 6-7 posts a day. But on the Thursday and Friday stretch he made 7 posts, and on monday 16 posts in 77 minutes. That a big jump in posting rate. The fact that jump puts him in the middle of the posters and a less likely candidate for a low poster lynch. If we couple that with what appears to be a scum action interfering in his voting (how often do you see a game where fellow team mates interfere in each other actions and so forth) then Rashan is not the name that comes to mind when it comes to looking at who is low posting and thus who may be the best lynch out of that list.

Basically the cf for Rashan or anyone else for the matter is a 50/50 they are either a spy or a scum player, forget about nationality for the moment. We should only consider nationality later in the game to ensure that we have eliminated one scum player for each nationality to be on good form. Also it later in the game when we should consider playing factions, at this point we should be playing as town vs scum.

Vote Rashan

Eh, the posting could be said to be a like you said a self-preservation tactic in case we decide to test out another low-poster lynch (although I dunno why we would even consider it as sole factor, to be honest).

Anyway, I don't think it's a scum intentional play. They have to remove somewhere around the region of 15 innos for a majority if I have my maths right, so setting up one scum for a lynch to protect another is a very, very risky play. They would have to be almost certain said person would not cop any flak. Maybe by starting the case, I dunno.

Rashan doing it to himself doesn't really gel with me, either. In fact, it's likely to get him more attention than if he chose someone else. I do admit the one about playing it safe with the one person to ensure what said scum perceives as a likely inno is lynched is good play, in my mind. Although it would probably only work once.

Dunno if I'm ready to vote for it or not, as I have a niggling doubt in my mind that he's not scum. And I was so sure about Shadow.

[Silanah]

Olar Ethil, on 25 May 2010 - 05:46 PM, said:

[

Quote

The diner was clean and deserted. She threw a look on the menu on display in the ticket machine, then decided to just have a coffee. Pretty good stuff, for such an unassuming place. She looked at the only other person present, a young girl who looked not a year older than fifteen, and who would use the thirty thousand yen on extravagant clothes, most likely. She felt a pang of pity at the need to dress up in pink and violet and green. The money would buy her a quality bag – not Vuitton, of course, but good leather and design. Each to his own, though, and in the end, the information she was about to receive about the man in the pink shirt more than made up for the fashion disaster soon to hit the streets. Sometimes, the ends really did justify the means.

I see it as the lady is in the Diner. She is about to give 30,000 yen to a youg girl that in her opinion, is likely to waste it on flashy/bad clothes. Seems she is an understated woman. She is paying the girl for information on the man in pink. (See underlined) Hence "information ABOUT then man in the pink shirt.


or am I way off here?

Oh, must've missed that. Then likely it's that person receiving the 'bag with greens' that we saw earlier targeting the girl, which makes three instance IIRC of someone receiving info from another player.

[Meanas]

The possibility that it could be a chinese spy that removed Rashan vote Shadow train is possible but it did more harm as it looked like someone was trying to save shadow but wasn't willing to publicly defend him, that a scum operating procedure you don't want to defend a team mate to heavily in that it would give you away especially when the guys isn't there to defend himself.

If it was a spy abilities then I think it was misused as it didn't help shadow at all.

[D'riss]

Silanah, on 25 May 2010 - 05:05 PM, said:

EDIT - derp derp, he dropped it

I have simply put the case on hold today as there are doubts in my mind and other cases are coming forward. fi someone provides evidence against what omtose has said I will swing back to ruse without a moments hesitation.

@GL - Not on its own, but like I said, I belief the meeting in the car is syndicate. Olar I think has put forward the opinion that it is the japanese, but coupled with the scene by the vending machine i think the bald man and the smoking woman are lovers.

[Path-Shaper]

She waited at the hotel for her, looking like she had just stepped out of an advertisement. "Nice car, darling."
"Thank you."
"ypu must be tired after the long drive, but there is something we have to discuss."
"Bad news?"
"No, not in itself."

~~

"Harry, come here, bring that camera. I want to do an interview with this nice young man, who has just been the target of a most vicious assassination with, you can't believe it, a throwing star. Please sir, tell me, how did this happen?"

[Olar Ethil]

D, on 25 May 2010 - 05:50 PM, said:

Silanah, on 25 May 2010 - 05:05 PM, said:

EDIT - derp derp, he dropped it

I have simply put the case on hold today as there are doubts in my mind and other cases are coming forward. fi someone provides evidence against what omtose has said I will swing back to ruse without a moments hesitation.

@GL - Not on its own, but like I said, I belief the meeting in the car is syndicate. Olar I think has put forward the opinion that it is the japanese, but coupled with the scene by the vending machine i think the bald man and the smoking woman are lovers.

I just said it was a possibility The wording about "Foreign Spies" is the only thing pointing to that.

I actually think it's more likely a syndicate meeting as well.

[Mockra]

Olar Ethil, on 25 May 2010 - 05:26 PM, said:

We can't assume that the person switching up the votes is Scum or spy. Just have to look at who would benifit.

*********************-------this is for argument I am not making acccusations-----------------*********


Say Rashan is scum, he is voting for shadow, cause he knows shadow isn't scum. Our mystery vote changer could be a chinese spy trying to save his team.

The Mystery vote changer could also be scum, in which case... I am not sure why he would change the Rashan vote. As it turns out, shadow wasn't scum ( unless he had CF protection). It makes little sense for the vote changer to switch the vote.


I guess this leads me to believe the vote changer is a Chinese Spy, though this, in and of itself, doesn't necessarily implicate rashan. He might just be the random guy chosen, the fact that it's happened to him twice...maybe Rashan is the extra Alt? low posting, a puppet for the mystery vote changer? idk... now I am getting crazy

Back from my meeting.

There's probably a vote changer in the Syndicate and probably another one in one of the spy teams (Chinese, for example).