[Hood's Path]

Ok, first and foremost I agree that Gamelon is likely a symp, and lynching him at the very least pushes back D-Day of Scum majority.

But I think it is also important to discuss other suspects, because there is NO guarantee that the kill passed on to Gamelon. I would suspect a lowly symp would be the more likely role to come forward to try to save Spite, not the person who would inherit the kill.

I am a little suspicious of Alkend. Why? Because Gamelon may have chosen the other master as his target to redirect the lynch because:

1) It was unlikely we were going to change anyways. And it woudl be a beautiful redirect of our attention. If we follow through with the Spite lynch, that would serve to give a PI to Alkend.

but

2) If we DID change, and Alkend died with a scum CF, we would have probably PI'd Gamelon, possibly Spite as well, and then become suspicious of Liosan. That could be why Gamelon was so certain to include his "we can't be certain liosan is lying" in several of his posts.


The other person I'm suspicious of is Korvalain

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 07:04 AM, said:

I really don't like the theory that the kills are guarded by one guard - it's just not M&P that one guard can block two killers. It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

I would like to find out the CF on spite but I think I'd prefer to find out if we can keep blocking the NKs. Sooner or later the scum have to kill people, or they can't win, so there's no way they will withold kills indefinitely if that's what they're planning.

So, we keep blocking Spite, we see if kills go through. If we lynch off Spite today and his CF comes back inno you can almost guarantee that Liosan will get NKed tonight (this will probably happen if Spite turns out to be scum as well), and I think we should try and avoid that. I think we have other inno roles so I say we buy time for them to do their thing.

I'm out to work soon. I won't lay a vote, I'm sure there will be enough people on today to go for the Spite vote if that becomes the best option.

Underlined portions are by me:

He says it is possible killers withheld.

And he says he won't lay a vote since he's sure we'll have enough (despite not having enough to lynch Alkend the day before).

And most importantly, he advocates keeping Spite around as being a good strategy.

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 07:05 AM, said:

By the way, I'm still suspicious of Alkend, particularly since he was so keen to analyse his own lynch train. But at least he's contributing now, which was the point.

And here he says he's still suspicious of Alkend, which is the person who Gamelon latched onto for his vote.

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 05:22 PM, said:

Quote

The RotK game is a town v scum game, 1 killer w/ symps and only a few other roles.

For god's sake, when will mods remember to put the setup in the actual fucking game thread? You know, the one where the rules are. Where we play the game.

This at least helps to explain why Liosan's guard may have worked. The Gamelon/Liosan thing doesn't seem to mesh at all. If Gamelon actually guarded Liosan then why wasn't there a kill? I refuse to believe that the killers either witheld on night two or that they were so fucking useless they didn't get provisionals in. I'm sure one of them is lying at this point, probably Gamelon... especially since Liosan has that special name.

I'm looking forward to Spite's CF, anyway.

edit - tag fail

Here he contradicts his earlier post, saying he "refuses to belief that killers withheld on night two". He can say that at this point, to sound reasonable, because Spite has been lynched. So the first time he tried to misdirect, and then later makes it look like he didn't believe it possible.

Korvalain, on 24 April 2010 - 07:22 AM, said:

Good to see Lui suck the big one.

Gamelon is interesting now, because he said he guarded Liosan night two... yet no kill went through when Liosan was guarding Spite. I think Gamelon is either the one to inherit the kill or another symp.

Since he was at much pain to make his point that he wasn't calling Liosan a liar, I think his game plan was to keep Spite alive and yet not start a fight against a PI/CI. I think he's the new killer.

I'll be on most of the morning but will be out as of the afternoon, probably til tomorrow.

And now he's happy to get rid of a probable symp (a good strategy to possibly stay hidden, sacrificing a symp is a good price for looking a little PI). But what's most interesting about how he does it is, he makes sure to push the idea that Gamelon is most likely the replacement killer. A bold claim, how do you figure that is the truth of it Korv?

Korv has been pinging my scumdar something fierce for a while, gotta admit.

In conclusion, I think Gamelon is a symp. I think Korv is a decent possibility for the new killer.

[Korvalain]

Hood's Path, if you're going to underline parts, you should underline the very next part where I say that it's unlikely that there was a withold because that would mean there was a BP hit on night 2, who didn't reveal so it was unlikely. Here, let me put that in red for you.

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 07:04 AM, said:

I really don't like the theory that the kills are guarded by one guard - it's just not M&P that one guard can block two killers. It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

Why do I think Gamelon is the replacement killer? I already told you.

Korvalain said:

Since he was at much pain to make his point that he wasn't calling Liosan a liar, I think his game plan was to keep Spite alive and yet not start a fight against a PI/CI. I think he's the new killer.

Because if he was the symp, he wouldn't be trying to keep himself out of trouble with a PI/CI while letting his master take the drop. He was trying to keep his mate alive while not causing shit for himself the next day. This is what the replacement would do.

[Hood's Path]

Was there really any chance for Gamelon to avoid getting attacked the next day when Spite turned up scum? See the beginning of my post, I highly highly doubt anything other than a normal symp would come forward to try to save Spite.

As for the first underlined bit, yes, you are mentioning why it might be strange but you offered no opinion. That strikes me as avoiding commenting on the issue, while putting out possibilities as subterfuge. Because then you come back, and state your opinion as if you always believed it was unlikely, which is an easier position to take once Spite had been lynched.

[Korvalain]

The whole post was opinion, how can it not be considered comment on the issue? Rubbish.

[Hood's Path]

Quote

It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

sounds more like avoiding opinion than giving one. That sounds much different than

Quote

I refuse to believe that the killers either witheld on night two or that they were so fucking useless they didn't get provisionals in.

edit: added underlining in 2nd quote

This post has been edited by Hood's Path: 24 April 2010 - 10:10 AM

[Galain]

I see what you are saying HP as per the inheritor probabilities.

However, you can't ignore the possibility that Omtose and Kesso, who were to of the originals who led us to Spite (roundabout) as being other symps. If that is the case, then the remaining symp would be the ONLY remaining carrier of the Killer possibility. Also, the more we reduce the killer's inheritance capabilities, the better it is for us to catch him in the end, I think.

[Korvalain]

If I had been avoiding opinion, I wouldn't have posted my opinion.

Good to see you've missed off the timestamps from those posts... how much time was between the two, again? Enough time to make a decision on the matter, do you think?

[Galain]

Lol.

Seriously, I'd like to see some fucking times and names to these posts, otherwise they are untrustworthy, and that's kind of anti-Maifaness ain't it? The one thing we should be able to count on is post time, name and content, yes?

[Hood's Path]

Galain, on 24 April 2010 - 10:12 AM, said:

I see what you are saying HP as per the inheritor probabilities.

However, you can't ignore the possibility that Omtose and Kesso, who were to of the originals who led us to Spite (roundabout) as being other symps. If that is the case, then the remaining symp would be the ONLY remaining carrier of the Killer possibility. Also, the more we reduce the killer's inheritance capabilities, the better it is for us to catch him in the end, I think.

WCS dictates that 1 or more of Kesso and Omtose were not actually symps. It may be safer to assume Kesso was, but not Omtose.

Also, we shoudl still assume 3 symps and 2 Named scum. The killing ability passes onto the other named one, not a regular symp.

Galain, what do you mean by killer's inheritance capabilities?




And what? My first post had all the timestamps. Too lazy to scroll up? I'm just copying and pasting in the later posts because I'm lazy.

[Korvalain]

Well, here they are. Not edited, not with select parts underlined.

I honestly fail to see how HP can claim I've not offered any opinion here.

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 07:04 AM, said:

I really don't like the theory that the kills are guarded by one guard - it's just not M&P that one guard can block two killers. It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

I would like to find out the CF on spite but I think I'd prefer to find out if we can keep blocking the NKs. Sooner or later the scum have to kill people, or they can't win, so there's no way they will withold kills indefinitely if that's what they're planning.

So, we keep blocking Spite, we see if kills go through. If we lynch off Spite today and his CF comes back inno you can almost guarantee that Liosan will get NKed tonight (this will probably happen if Spite turns out to be scum as well), and I think we should try and avoid that. I think we have other inno roles so I say we buy time for them to do their thing.

I'm out to work soon. I won't lay a vote, I'm sure there will be enough people on today to go for the Spite vote if that becomes the best option.

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 05:22 PM, said:

Quote

The RotK game is a town v scum game, 1 killer w/ symps and only a few other roles.

For god's sake, when will mods remember to put the setup in the actual fucking game thread? You know, the one where the rules are. Where we play the game.

This at least helps to explain why Liosan's guard may have worked. The Gamelon/Liosan thing doesn't seem to mesh at all. If Gamelon actually guarded Liosan then why wasn't there a kill? I refuse to believe that the killers either witheld on night two or that they were so fucking useless they didn't get provisionals in. I'm sure one of them is lying at this point, probably Gamelon... especially since Liosan has that special name.

I'm looking forward to Spite's CF, anyway.

edit - tag fail

[Galain]

Honestly, I can see why you find Korv scummy, HP. Your quotes don't read well for him, at all. I'm going to give him and you a full re-read ASAP.

Honestly, the fact that such a major case comes out immediately after mine makes me want to discount it simply because of that fact, but I won't, as it makes sense that Gamelon is a symp. But, I won't disregard the fact that he is the INHERITOR symp possibility.

[Hood's Path]

My first post had the time stamps and the posts in their entirety. Korv, are you being obtuse on purpose?


Anyways, the only thing you offer an opinion on in the first post is that you don't like the theory that killers are guarded by one guard. You offer a withheld kill as a possibility, which you then poo-poo in your next post, hours later, AFTER Spite has been lynched.


Anyways, you aren't even commenting on what I consider to be the more damning evidence. LIke the excuse you give not to vote is because you probably won't be needed, despite a stalled Alkend lynch the day before.

[Korvalain]

If you want to see it as an excuse, then that's up to you. My reasoning is there, and I stand by my decision at the time.

[Hood's Path]

@Galain,

My case doesn't do anything to discredit yours. It shoudln't, 'cause Gam is pretty scummy.

[Galain]

Fun stuff. I'll re-read it again tomorrow with a more critical eye than gut.

Until then: My vote sticks. And, I'm going to bed.

[Korvalain]

I'm off to watch the match. May be on before I go out this afternoon, may not.

[Eloth]

Right let's think about this.

Down to 12 players. WCS is there three scum left. Kesso reaction doesn't suggest inno so that one symp down, one main scum is down.

So we have one main scum and two symps.

BCS we only have that last scum with as the symps were wiped out by the modkills. Not likely due to the way Gamelon acted.

Going with WCS.

To Form Majority they need to get down to 5 players with no further losses, so seven players have to be removed. D Day is the 8th day lynch now.

It looks like Gamelon is a symp due to his claims of guarding Liosan (it very fucking obvious he a symp).

If we remove him with the scum at three they go down to two players. To win they need to get it down to three players. So after Gamelon is lynched another eight players need to die.

Which put D-Day to the 9th day lynch.

What I want to lean for is that there is that there is one symp and one killer left, which is very possible with the amount of modkills.

Which would leave Gamelon as the last symp. Take him out scum go down to one to win they need to get down to 2. Needing 10 players to die.

Which means scum win at night 9.

Taking out Gamelon gives us an extra day, that is based on him being a symp which after his claims of guarding Liosan have become clear that he lying out of his arse and only scum have to go that far to win.

Giving ourselves an extra day is very important, it adds another lynch to us, Ok we could try and use this day lynch and get the other main scum but we are just as likely to miss.

I say lynch Gamelon and find the remaining scum in a much smaller pool of suspects. The killer has to keep killing for scum to have any chance to win and we need to lynch for us to win.

My D-Day prediction is of course based on lynches and kills going through and that there is no more losses through modkills and so forth.

Vote Gamelon

You heard the reasoning, I'm not advocating we speed lynch Gamelon but unless someone can come up with something good lynching Gamelon today is our best option.

[Eloth]

8 Votes for Spite ( Liosan, Eloth, Korbas, Alkend, D'riss, Gamelon, Karatallid, Hood's Path )

Players not voted: Galain, Karosis, Korvalain, Sorrit, Tulas Shorn

Right that was votes from yesterday I added Hood's path to the list of votes and have removed Spite and Kaschan from players as they were lynched or modkilled Liosan is of course struck through as he was killed.

Now we had Spite Cornered and guarded, scum have lossed at least one symp in Kesso and their killer is boned to perfectly honest.

Now scum are going to be doing one of two things preserve Spite if they can they would only do this if there numbers are low. Two players are more likely to win than one. They could have backed my idea but if my assumptions were correct it would have boned them silly. As they would be relying on on lynches bringing them to majority D-Day would be around day 12 lynch. Only a master player is that patient . Karosis was willing to back the plan yes it was plan requiring patience but it was more likely to reward innos quicker than scum, so if he is scum then damn man you are playing it cool. So I would say very likely inno. As of now any player who name is underlined I believe may be inno, the one who i think may be scum will be bolded. A player who is both I can see reason for both. This will be only based on the events of Spite Lynch.

The best tactic for scum to preserve spite but without boning themselves completely over is how Gamelon played it suggest that Liosan is lying and that spite may be innocent. He is more likely to offer a player who has been under suspicion. Alkend fits that description I'm sure someone suggested that only scum are so hard to kill off. I'll try and find that quote as the person who said it if still alive may be trying to distract with alkend.

But If Gamelon has balls then Alkend may be the last of the main scum, and that is truly ambitous. I would suggest that alkend be considered for a lynch at least. So Alkend in my mind can be either.

The other plan is to lynch Spit fast and get the kill transferred. Two people come to mind for that are Korbas and Hood's Path. Korbas just for the entire Kesso edited post incident and I think my mind is going paranoid in that case.

So why Hood's Path, Spite as I said was boned, there was two possibilities we lynch him or we went with my plan, if my plan is correct it would have boned scum even more.
I know Hood's Path has made a lot of discussion and I'm not discounting that, this is my thoughts on how scum may react, partially based on how I would play in such circumstances.
The hammer vote gets a lot of light put on it. And we like to assume that scum wouldn't put themselves in such a place. But Spite was gone as a power in this game he was either going to be lynched or guarded if he survived. It was tactically better for the scum to vote for spite.

Yes keeping spite around keeps their numbers up but the other scum would have had to direct to other lynches which was more likely to bring attention to them.

If any scum went with not voting for spite they played the wrong move in my opinion.

The reason why D'riss, Korbas and Sorrit areput down as being likely of being inno is that my first three suspicions are nearly wrong every single time.

[D'riss]

Spite, on 22 April 2010 - 03:28 PM, said:

Karattalid (and the others, Barghast, Kaschan, Sukuul and sorta Alkend), please if you don't have enough time, then post and say so. Everyone understands that real life can intervene and you can't contribute what you want. If you say so then its fine with everyone we all understand.

Signaling? As in 'get your post counts higher if you can' thing?

Sorrit, on 22 April 2010 - 04:21 PM, said:

Gamelon 58Korbas 42Hood's Path 40Path-Shaper 38Sorrit 32Eloth 32Galain 31D'riss 31Omtose 29Karosis 29Kessobahn 23Tulas Shorn 21Liosan 20Spite 19Alkend 19Korvalain 15Barghast 14Karatallid 9Kaschan 8Ampelas 2Anomandaris 2Tapper 1Sukul Ankhadu 1


vote Kaschan

becasue he is the lowest poster that hasn't been modkilled.

Spit 20, Alkend 19... Why would he say what he said above though..

Korvalain, on 22 April 2010 - 04:54 PM, said:

I've been having major PING PING radar action with Alkend the past day or so. So far today (last three or four pages?), Alkend has contributed zip, although he's been around.

Alkend, on 22 April 2010 - 03:22 AM, said:

back
all the semantics make my head hurt, considering we're discussing something that only 3 (or 4) people saw, and basing the game plan around that.

here's a wild curveball for the rest of you: what if D'rek made the symps paired? they wouldn't be able to reveal, since D'rek out lined the inno power roles either in the OP, or in the sign up thread, but they would be able to play more effectively.

Summary of the situation plus some bullshit about crazy setups.

Alkend, on 22 April 2010 - 03:23 AM, said:

having thrown that out there, ima go crawl into my bed. 2 more days.......

Alkend, on 22 April 2010 - 01:04 PM, said:

i'm back and catching up

Catching up...

Alkend, on 22 April 2010 - 01:28 PM, said:

place seems to be dead again...

since I've missed the entirety of Kesso's big post debacle, I feel inclined to look elsewhere for ways of finding scum, since all the info about that is reserved to a few players.

And this is all he came back with. He is inclined to look elsewhere, but hasn't actually done so or really offered anything whatsoever.

This whole series of posts makes me think that Alkend is scum with nothing to do - i.e. nobody is attacking him right now, so he doesn't want to get involved in discussions and is constipated on thread (yes).

vote Alkend

edit to add - when I say "today", I mean real time, not game time.

double edit - for those who have problem with multiquote... all I do is click the "multiquote" button for each post, then click on "Add Reply" and it works. Doesn't seem to matter what page the posts were on or anything. Are you sure you're clicking "add reply" and not just "reply"?

Someone picks up Alkends trail... Case building up

Path-Shaper, on 22 April 2010 - 06:34 PM, said:

It is Day 3. 1 hour and 4 minutes remaining
15 Players still alive: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

3 Votes for Alkend ( Korvalain, Sorrit, Galain )
4 Votes for Sorrit ( Tulas Shorn, Hood's Path, Korbas, Liosan )

Players not voted: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Gamelon, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Spite

Verified scum avoiding Alkend train

Path-Shaper, on 22 April 2010 - 06:50 PM, said:

It is Day 3. 48 minutes remaining
15 Players still alive: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for Alkend ( Korvalain, Sorrit, Galain, Tulas Shorn, Karosis )
3 Votes for Sorrit ( Hood's Path, Korbas, Liosan )

Players not voted: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Gamelon, Karatallid, Kaschan, Spite

Same deal later in the post count...


Now, on the previous page Galain (I think it is) makes the first attempt to analyse Gamelons behavior.

Spite was a roled killer.
Gamelon is a symp.
Gamelon attempts to derail and keeps bringing up Alkend previous trainage, but for some miraculous reason he didn't vote on it.
Gamelon states that if Spite is inno, we should go for Alkend , repeatedly.

Now, what if Gamelon realised Spite is going down and decided to take a gamble? As a symp, he might be valuable, but his life is expentable. With Spite dead, the other roled killer needs to survive at all costs to win the game. So, he offers himself to the wolves thinking that since people will realise he is a symp, his master (Alkend) will be safe , since his name is cleared.


Now I do understand that this is a huge huge case of WIFOM, but while we can simply overbear Gamelon and beat him senceless, that doesn't mean we shouldnt be looking for the other killer who is lurking around.

[Hood's Path]

@D'riss, what you say is not disimilar to what I say in my post at the top of the page. Alkend's name has been floated around enough for sure.