[Alkend]

ok, HP:

what is your opinion of Galain?

[Hood's Path]

Galain's play has been very smooth. He's been in and out, but hasn't made any waves since earlier in the game when he posted a bit more than recently. I don't think he's a symp, he hasn't redirected from anything that I can tell or raised any fuss. If he's scum, I would peg him as one of the two named ones in the OP.

I don't remember who he has voted for off hand.

[Hood's Path]

Ok, I see he voted for Omtose mid-way through that lynch. And I take back the "smooth" comment. He was swearing alot (which I didn't remember).

[Galain]

Hopefully, that I'm sexy.

Beyond that, what do you want? I thought you were scummier than Alkend, but that neither of you were ridiculously scummy, and wanted more options. I had to go, and rather than be useless I left a vote.

I've been fairly consistently voting to try and get things happening.

As for not making waves, well, I'd disagree there. But, whatever. I've voted for you twice, so I can see why you'd be pissed.

Edit: Freudian slip. That should read "scummier than Sorrit." Obviously you are on my mind.

This post has been edited by Galain: 23 April 2010 - 03:59 AM

[Galain]

Also, I'll vote for Spite. But, there's lots of time left, and the two named scum with one guard blocking deserves to be talked about.

And, while I think Eloth's theory of keeping the status quo going along and looking for the other, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bushel, to me.

[Alkend]

lol, not pissed per se.

more like, wary.
unlike some, I don't let my emotions flare up often.

just out of all those votes, yours struck me as the most apologetic sounding, but w/e.

anyhow, i'm a lot more interested in Eloth, tbh. his plan, while I can see the possible reasoning behind it, is still way too absurd for an inno to toss out.

[Hood's Path]

I've been wondering about Gamelon and Tulas myself. Gamelon has the most posts, and we have probably all interacted with him at some point, but he has been spectacularily unmemorable for me.

Tulas has gone his own way on some votes and has mixed things up a bit. I'm a touch more suspicious about him.

Galain, you haven't been on since people started talking about Spite. What are your thoughts?
And Alkend, why did you ask me about Galain? What are your own thoughts?

edit: crosspost

This post has been edited by Hood's Path: 23 April 2010 - 04:04 AM

[Alkend]

Hood, on 23 April 2010 - 04:02 AM, said:

I've been wondering about Gamelon and Tulas myself. Gamelon has the most posts, and we have probably all interacted with him at some point, but he has been spectacularily unmemorable for me.

Tulas has gone his own way on some votes and has mixed things up a bit. I'm a touch more suspicious about him.

Galain, you haven't been on since people started talking about Spite. What are your thoughts?
And Alkend, why did you ask me about Galain? What are your own thoughts?

I pointed out Galain in my mini analysis of my own abortive train.
Tulas had that "I'm prety sure you're a dumb RI rather than scum" remark after Sorrit's implosion.
Gamelon.... I really got nothing on him, to be perfectly honest.

[Galain]

I'm unsure as to whether I can remember a post by Gamelon or Tulas. It strikes me as somewhat odd, especially for the top poster.

However, my window is fairly small so I might not have talked with them at all or been on when they were posting.

[Alkend]

Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 04:08 AM, said:

I'm unsure as to whether I can remember a post by Gamelon or Tulas. It strikes me as somewhat odd, especially for the top poster.

However, my window is fairly small so I might not have talked with them at all or been on when they were posting.

ditto, both for small window, and for remembering much about Gamelon.

Tulas got the aforementioned line, that stuck out like a sore thumb during my catchup.

[Alkend]

ok, boys and girls, it's half past midnight here, and I need to get some shut eye. I'll see some of you in the morning before work. I should bmuch more active once weekend starts.

please avoid lynching me, if at all possible,

[Hood's Path]

Going to get some food, back in a bit.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 19 hours and 14 minutes remaining
15 Players still alive: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

6 Votes for Spite ( Liosan, Karosis, Eloth, Korbas, Alkend, D'riss )

Players not voted: Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Kaschan, Korvalain, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

[Galain]

Liu Bei and Jian Yong are the two named scum and head of the conspiracy. Thus, the latter 3 or 2 __________ roles are presumed to be symps, and possibly become killer upon the death of an original named scum.

Now, with two named scum the natural thought is that there is a shared kill amongst them.

If Spite is a named scum, then there is most likely not a shared kill, barring unknown mechanics in a M&P game (probably not) because a single guard is blocking a shared kill. Normally that wouldn't happen.

Two independent killers is also pretty much ruled out by the actions of the past two nights, odds of both killers being guarded both nights are extremely poor, imo.

If that is the case, these are possible options:

(1) the other scum becomes killer if he had no role prior to this. That would be odd as we are assuming the main conspirators to have some ability.
(2) a previous symp becomes a killer in an inherited role, possible, while the other named scum would have a different role than a killer.
(3) nothing, and we have what seems to be an imbalanced game. Don't think this is all that probable.

If my analysis is approaching correct (very probable it's not), barring an unforeseen mechanic on shared-kills being guarded, it's possible one of the two scum is a killer, while the other is a different role (Guard, healer, finder?).

Granted this is all based around the shared-kill not getting through, and the two independent killers theory being so far fetched due to the night actions (1 kill, 0 kills, 0 kills).

How wrong am I? I'm serious because I do find the scenario to be extremely odd, and I think it's something worth talking about for a while.

[Karosis]

Eloth, on 22 April 2010 - 08:26 PM, said:

Right if you're guard is blocking the kill and you used it on spite then we have a opportunity here.

If spite is one of the killers you only need to keep guarding him and there will be no kill.

With that mod mistake I'm willing to believe you.
Guard Spite and go hunt for the other killer in our lynching attempts.

We take out Spite when we have the other killer dead.

The reason why I suggest this is that LIosan is blocking kills, if we take out Spite then Liosan is going to be attacked again and it going to be luck for him to block the next killer.

He only needs to guard spiite to stop the kills.

I actually think this isn't a bad idea...

D, on 22 April 2010 - 09:43 PM, said:

Quote

Liu Bei had just awoken from his dream. Ji Ping, the physician, leaned forward. "So you intend to murder Lord Yuan?" he asked. Liu Bei was too stunned to reply. "Calm yourself, " Ji Ping went on. "Though a mere physician myself, I have never forgotten how much I owe the Han. Day after day I have listened to your deep-drawn sighs but hesitated to question you. Now, by chance, the words you spoke in your dreams have disclosed the actual situation. Please do not keep the truth from me. If there is any way I can help, even if it means clan-wide extermination, I shall do it without regret." Than, as a pledge, Ji Ping bit off the top of his finger.

OMG, thats the prisoner guy that the guards were beating up in the Opening Scene., a pretty much verified scum, and probably locked up securely somewhere inside the Prime Ministers palace, where we are currently in.

Unless scum have abilities to free this guy, and disguise him as someone else, and not notice that their prisoner has escaped.

I can bring a statistical chart of probabilities from something like that occuring to a pretty standard game, but I dont believe you guys will appreciate it (While I'm sure folks in SH would laugh their asses off)

Nice to see you've found the mafia sense of humour Also, nice catch. I think this flashback pretty much confirms we started with three symps, as Ji Pinig is not one of the originals brought in as conspirators.

Path-Shaper, on 22 April 2010 - 10:26 PM, said:

Hood, on 22 April 2010 - 10:20 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 22 April 2010 - 10:05 PM, said:

Korbas, on 22 April 2010 - 10:00 PM, said:

and D'rek does seem quite good at keeping sides balanced in the games she puts together.

Except for Twilight...
and the Dong Zhuo game...

which would be half my games right there. But yeah this one is totally balanced I promise! I'm, like, super serious, guys!

LOL. THat was so out of character for our steady, even-handed D'rek that I'd vote her if she wasn't PS.

Well I *am* a bit giggly (giggily? giggle-ee?) right now...

Giggity?


In all seriousness, D'riss has a very good point that the killers should have gone for Lio, since he'd CF'd inno and revealed roled. Plus, Lio putting an action in late causing a guard to save himself is way more likely that Lio and the Killers both getting actions in late... We're pretty sure he is inno based on his accidental CF, and I'm pretty sure he is in fact roled too. Add to that a symp wouldn't pull a stunt like this so early in the game and I'm pretty sure Spite is in fact scum.

Why there hasnt been any deaths the past two nights is a bit of a stick in the works. It's very unusual that a guard on one of the killers prevents both from killing. Personally I think it's likely that only Lui Bei has a kill at this point, and that his partner inherits the ability on his death. Of course there's no way to be sure, but at face value - guarding Spite = no kill.

So I actually agree with Eloth's original position - if we keep guarding Spite we can search for other scum without the risk of an NK. If we vote Spite off today, we have to assume that Lio will die tonight - we can't pin our hopes on there being a second healer. If we vote off someone other than Spite, there is still chance that Lio might die, but if he doesnt we have pretty much absolute proof that Spite is in fact Lui Bei - 3 nights with no kill in a row can't be anything but a successful guard. If Lio does die, we can just lynch Spite off tomorrow. If he doesnt though, we have a huge advantage. I think it would be stupid of us not to take it. Worst case, if we haven't hit the other named scum by the time there are 11 people left we vote Spite off then, but we could possibly double the amount of time it would take us to get to that point.

Ok, I gotta go for a while again though. I should definitely be back before any sort of timeout.

remove vote

because I really think that we should look down this road a bit more seriously.

[Karatallid]

Well, I'm open to possibilities, although I don't really like any of the cases so far.

The thing about your speculation Karosis, is that if true, we have a scum with unknown role. Considering Liosan is a guard and a healer, it's not too much of a leap to assume what's-his-face has a combination of abilities. With that in mind, if this person has a guard (or any of the symps do), then Lio's guard will fail and Spite will get a kill.

[Korvalain]

I really don't like the theory that the kills are guarded by one guard - it's just not M&P that one guard can block two killers. It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

I would like to find out the CF on spite but I think I'd prefer to find out if we can keep blocking the NKs. Sooner or later the scum have to kill people, or they can't win, so there's no way they will withold kills indefinitely if that's what they're planning.

So, we keep blocking Spite, we see if kills go through. If we lynch off Spite today and his CF comes back inno you can almost guarantee that Liosan will get NKed tonight (this will probably happen if Spite turns out to be scum as well), and I think we should try and avoid that. I think we have other inno roles so I say we buy time for them to do their thing.

I'm out to work soon. I won't lay a vote, I'm sure there will be enough people on today to go for the Spite vote if that becomes the best option.

[Korvalain]

By the way, I'm still suspicious of Alkend, particularly since he was so keen to analyse his own lynch train. But at least he's contributing now, which was the point.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 16 hours and 31 minutes remaining

15 Players still alive: Alkend, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

8 votes to lynch, 8 votes to go to night.

5 Votes for Spite ( Liosan, Eloth, Korbas, Alkend, D'riss )

Players not voted: Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korvalain, Sorrit, Spite, Tulas Shorn

---

Goin to bed, and I'm out of town for the next several days so no moderator help from me.

-pb

[Karatallid]

Korvalain, on 23 April 2010 - 07:04 AM, said:

I really don't like the theory that the kills are guarded by one guard - it's just not M&P that one guard can block two killers. It could be possible that the killers witheld their kill last night to frame whoever Liosan guarded (and maybe hitting a BP the night before? although why wouldn't that BP character reveal?) I don't know, it's weird and I haven't decided what I think on that really.

Alright, but where's the kill on night 2? Someone had to have guarded the killer or healed the victim.

Quote

I would like to find out the CF on spite but I think I'd prefer to find out if we can keep blocking the NKs. Sooner or later the scum have to kill people, or they can't win, so there's no way they will withold kills indefinitely if that's what they're planning.

So, we keep blocking Spite, we see if kills go through. If we lynch off Spite today and his CF comes back inno you can almost guarantee that Liosan will get NKed tonight (this will probably happen if Spite turns out to be scum as well), and I think we should try and avoid that. I think we have other inno roles so I say we buy time for them to do their thing.

I'm out to work soon. I won't lay a vote, I'm sure there will be enough people on today to go for the Spite vote if that becomes the best option.

How is not lynching Spite avoiding the NK when a) we don't know for sure if he even has a NK, and b] we don't know for sure if there's only one killer, or that scum don't have a role that can neutralise Liosan's guard now that he is revealed.

fixed quote tags and ETA - I get the logic, but I don't see how keeping him alive is the wisest move.

This post has been edited by Karatallid: 23 April 2010 - 07:31 AM