Help
Look D'riss you giving numbers that you can't verify and it based on you trusting that guy who came up with them was good with numbers.
Mafia 61 - Liu Bei's Conspiracy Romance of the Three Kingdoms: Chapter 4
#262
Karatallid 
- Lieutenant
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 123
- Joined: 17-June 09
- Interests:secks
Posted 20 April 2010 - 05:45 PM
Seems I missed a couple of doozies - D'riss with his cult scare and Kesso's epic posting fail.
Not sure what to make of D'riss. I think his speculation is off - as has already been said, it wasn't a deflecting tactic, nor was it pushing anything, as there was no pressure on anyone. With that in mind, I'm more willing to chalk it up to harebrained logic than a scum move. That said, it's easily the most suspicious thing that's happened all game. Worth a lynch? Maybe. The no-lynch kinda put us in an awkward position, as we have no train to analyse, so I think we really do need to lynch today to get some info, especially with three down.
With regards to set up, I think it's fairly safe to assume paired killers who can communicate off thread. I'm not going to go into the symp discussion, since it's been handled fairly well - at this point there's no way we can know whether it's 2 or 3 symps, but it shouldn't really matter overly much for now.
Not sure what to make of D'riss. I think his speculation is off - as has already been said, it wasn't a deflecting tactic, nor was it pushing anything, as there was no pressure on anyone. With that in mind, I'm more willing to chalk it up to harebrained logic than a scum move. That said, it's easily the most suspicious thing that's happened all game. Worth a lynch? Maybe. The no-lynch kinda put us in an awkward position, as we have no train to analyse, so I think we really do need to lynch today to get some info, especially with three down.
With regards to set up, I think it's fairly safe to assume paired killers who can communicate off thread. I'm not going to go into the symp discussion, since it's been handled fairly well - at this point there's no way we can know whether it's 2 or 3 symps, but it shouldn't really matter overly much for now.
#263
Sorrit
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 1
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 05:52 PM
Sorry PB. That Blows. I feel bad for ya.
But you were trying to deflect me off of my Omtose vote. Which makes me want to vote it more.
vote Omtose
for his blunder I pointed out previously, and for Kesso trying to get me off that vote by saying it's easy to mix up names.
But you were trying to deflect me off of my Omtose vote. Which makes me want to vote it more.
vote Omtose
for his blunder I pointed out previously, and for Kesso trying to get me off that vote by saying it's easy to mix up names.
#264
Karatallid
- Lieutenant
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 123
- Joined: 17-June 09
- Interests:secks
Posted 20 April 2010 - 05:53 PM
D'riss, I'm wondering, other than provoking a reaction, what is your point with all the numbers speculation? If you're right, statistically we're better off than we would be if we had different numbers...so what? How does that help us? You yourself say that arguing about it is pointless 
#265
Path-Shaper
- Mafia Modgod
-
- Group: Game Mod
- Posts: 1,255
- Joined: 01-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 08:02 PM
It is Day 2. 15 hours and 19 minutes remaining
18 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Sorrit, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
10 votes to lynch, 9 votes to go to night.
1 Vote for D'riss ( Korbas )
1 Vote for Omtose ( Sorrit )
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
18 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Sorrit, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
10 votes to lynch, 9 votes to go to night.
1 Vote for D'riss ( Korbas )
1 Vote for Omtose ( Sorrit )
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
#266
Korvalain
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 10
- Joined: 05-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 08:10 PM
Took me a while to catch up. I'm not sure what to make of D'riss but there's no way I'm either trusting his stats or asking him to expand. Enough with the stats, you're almost certainly wrong.
The Kesso/Omtose thing is very interesting. The defence of Omtose combined with the complete post-change (seriously, I would imagine that only people with something to worry about would go to that extreme) does paint a bad picture.
Can nobody remember any more about that post at all? Info is vague at the moment.
The weird thing is though that Omtose appeared to be the symp signalling with his Sorrit vote, not a killer.
Any more info on the deleted post?
The Kesso/Omtose thing is very interesting. The defence of Omtose combined with the complete post-change (seriously, I would imagine that only people with something to worry about would go to that extreme) does paint a bad picture.
Can nobody remember any more about that post at all? Info is vague at the moment.
The weird thing is though that Omtose appeared to be the symp signalling with his Sorrit vote, not a killer.
Any more info on the deleted post?
#267
Tulas Shorn
- Sergeant
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 98
- Joined: 01-May 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 08:42 PM
Ok I'm back and what busy day 2.
I don't trust D'riss. I would be happy to vote for him if Kesso hadn't exploded. But since he and it looks like a symp covering for his killer. I have to leave D'riss alone for now.
Right now I don't know whether to vote for Omtose, Sorrit, or Spite. There is a lot of WIFOM going on right now.
Sorrit is a cool player who if scum could be using an innocent mistake to PI himself. Something that we have seen happen before. Could have been the player who was being signaled.
Omtose could have been signaling either Sorrit or Spite or making a simple mistake and confusing the "S" names.
Spite could have been one of the one being signaled, or his lack of care could have been because there wasn't a vote on him so he didn't care.
I am more tempted to take out the player who could be scum possibly trying to PI himself then either one of the other two. As I would rather lynch scum then a possible symp.
Vote Sorrit
For now. I will be back on before the end of day.
I don't trust D'riss. I would be happy to vote for him if Kesso hadn't exploded. But since he and it looks like a symp covering for his killer. I have to leave D'riss alone for now.
Right now I don't know whether to vote for Omtose, Sorrit, or Spite. There is a lot of WIFOM going on right now.
Sorrit is a cool player who if scum could be using an innocent mistake to PI himself. Something that we have seen happen before. Could have been the player who was being signaled.
Omtose could have been signaling either Sorrit or Spite or making a simple mistake and confusing the "S" names.
Spite could have been one of the one being signaled, or his lack of care could have been because there wasn't a vote on him so he didn't care.
I am more tempted to take out the player who could be scum possibly trying to PI himself then either one of the other two. As I would rather lynch scum then a possible symp.
Vote Sorrit
For now. I will be back on before the end of day.
#268
Karosis
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 9
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:04 PM
Korbas, on 20 April 2010 - 04:25 PM, said:
Kessobahn, on 20 April 2010 - 04:20 PM, said:
edit - wow, talk about a fail reply
For those of you who came in too late to see it. This was a long-ish post proclaiming me a possible symp for voting D'riss thus drawing attention away from Sorrit or Omtose. There were some quotes too.
This most be some of the most unacceptable shit I've seen in a mafia game in some time. Editing away an entire post? One must wonder what you accidentally revealed here.
Do you remember anything else that was said?
I think it's more than likely Kesso was a symp - I don't see why an inno would panic edit like that. Everyone knows it's against the rules, so there must have been something in there worth getting modkilled over.
Kesso did seem to be trying to subtly undermine Sorrit and deflect off Kesso, so I'm more to side with Sorrit here and vote Omtose, but something more substantial from you would help...
Anyway, off to bed for me, will be back before lynch.
#269
Sorrit
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 1
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:16 PM
Tulas Shorn, on 20 April 2010 - 08:42 PM, said:
Ok I'm back and what busy day 2.
I don't trust D'riss. I would be happy to vote for him if Kesso hadn't exploded. But since he and it looks like a symp covering for his killer. I have to leave D'riss alone for now.
Right now I don't know whether to vote for Omtose, Sorrit, or Spite. There is a lot of WIFOM going on right now.
Sorrit is a cool player who if scum could be using an innocent mistake to PI himself. Something that we have seen happen before. Could have been the player who was being signaled.
Omtose could have been signaling either Sorrit or Spite or making a simple mistake and confusing the "S" names.
Spite could have been one of the one being signaled, or his lack of care could have been because there wasn't a vote on him so he didn't care.
I am more tempted to take out the player who could be scum possibly trying to PI himself then either one of the other two. As I would rather lynch scum then a possible symp.
Vote Sorrit
For now. I will be back on before the end of day.
I don't trust D'riss. I would be happy to vote for him if Kesso hadn't exploded. But since he and it looks like a symp covering for his killer. I have to leave D'riss alone for now.
Right now I don't know whether to vote for Omtose, Sorrit, or Spite. There is a lot of WIFOM going on right now.
Sorrit is a cool player who if scum could be using an innocent mistake to PI himself. Something that we have seen happen before. Could have been the player who was being signaled.
Omtose could have been signaling either Sorrit or Spite or making a simple mistake and confusing the "S" names.
Spite could have been one of the one being signaled, or his lack of care could have been because there wasn't a vote on him so he didn't care.
I am more tempted to take out the player who could be scum possibly trying to PI himself then either one of the other two. As I would rather lynch scum then a possible symp.
Vote Sorrit
For now. I will be back on before the end of day.
Wait what???
we have a self admitted scum, that went against the rules and edited his post, a post that I saw, and that basically said he was going to try to cover for Omtose because he had mixed up names in the past, ( among other things, but that was the part I do remember...it was a huge post) and I am the scum? wowza. I think we found another symp.
Also, why would I bring up the mistake if he was trying to signal me?
your logic is on par with D'riss' statistical skill. ( kidding D'riss!! )
#271
Korbas
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 2
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:29 PM
Karosis, on 20 April 2010 - 09:04 PM, said:
Korbas, on 20 April 2010 - 04:25 PM, said:
Kessobahn, on 20 April 2010 - 04:20 PM, said:
edit - wow, talk about a fail reply
For those of you who came in too late to see it. This was a long-ish post proclaiming me a possible symp for voting D'riss thus drawing attention away from Sorrit or Omtose. There were some quotes too.
This most be some of the most unacceptable shit I've seen in a mafia game in some time. Editing away an entire post? One must wonder what you accidentally revealed here.
Do you remember anything else that was said?
I think it's more than likely Kesso was a symp - I don't see why an inno would panic edit like that. Everyone knows it's against the rules, so there must have been something in there worth getting modkilled over.
Kesso did seem to be trying to subtly undermine Sorrit and deflect off Kesso, so I'm more to side with Sorrit here and vote Omtose, but something more substantial from you would help...
Anyway, off to bed for me, will be back before lynch.
As I said earlier, I must've missed whatever turned out to be so game breaking. I got pretty annoyed that he accused me of lying and so wrote a quick retort to that. When that was posted his original post was already gone.
I said I'd respond to D'riss' post, but I think that most of value has been said already in that regard. Again, as his long statistical analysis seems to touch upon nothing more than there being a higher chance of lynching scum when there's less innocents around, I am more confident in my assumption that the reason for bringing it up in the first place was purely an attempt at post padding. Yes, he does seem like an inexperienced player, but that makes him more prone to commit the stereotypical scum mistakes.
I see little difference between quoting basic statistics and, say, summarizing the game.
#273
Tulas Shorn
- Sergeant
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 98
- Joined: 01-May 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:32 PM
How I look at it sorrit you don't know your symps. If it looks like someone is framing you and you are scum then you will try to string them up. Or nk them.
No I didn't see this self confessed scum quote of kessos, all I can go off of is the later posts which indicate that something was there. What I have no idea as it was deleted and no one can say what it was.
Kesso was obviosly a power role of some sort. Whether he was scum or a symp or a town role I don't know. But you don't seem to be coming off innocent to me. In fact you seem to be acting on a slight panic. Which I find suspicious.
Now do I find omtose suspicious yes. But I right now you are higher on my radar.
No I didn't see this self confessed scum quote of kessos, all I can go off of is the later posts which indicate that something was there. What I have no idea as it was deleted and no one can say what it was.
Kesso was obviosly a power role of some sort. Whether he was scum or a symp or a town role I don't know. But you don't seem to be coming off innocent to me. In fact you seem to be acting on a slight panic. Which I find suspicious.
Now do I find omtose suspicious yes. But I right now you are higher on my radar.
#274
Sorrit
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 1
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:33 PM
This is right before deleted post, where he is trying to convince me I should be going for Spite and not Omtose.
Korbas calls him on it.
Here is the post where I use my own words to quote him.. but I did acurately quote his post. I remember double checking. Saying that I should "Clearly" be voting spite and not Omtose
showing, that my last post was in response to his deleted post.
Here is Korbas' immediate reaction.. this all happened pretty quick.
For those of you who came in too late to see it. This was a long-ish post proclaiming me a possible symp for voting D'riss thus drawing attention away from Sorrit or Omtose. There were some quotes too.
This most be some of the most unacceptable shit I've seen in a mafia game in some time. Editing away an entire post? One must wonder what you accidentally revealed here.
I'm not gonna BS, I don't remember a lot of what was on the post, but the gist of what I remember is that he was really pushing me to vote Spite, and not Omtose. he himself said his post would break the game. I am going off what I remember here, if Omtose turns out inno, feel free to lynch me, I will take one for the team to clear things up, but I am pretty sure that Omtose is scum. and if he is, you can clear at least spite from the list of people that could be scum as well.
Kessobahn, on 20 April 2010 - 04:23 PM, said:
@Sorrit, it's a valid point, dude, but I think a vote for Omtose doesn't do much good. BCS he's a symp. I think you vote Spite or vote nothing.
Korbas calls him on it.
Korbas, on 20 April 2010 - 04:23 PM, said:
What the hell? Did you just remove an entire post Kesso?
Here is the post where I use my own words to quote him.. but I did acurately quote his post. I remember double checking. Saying that I should "Clearly" be voting spite and not Omtose
Sorrit, on 20 April 2010 - 04:23 PM, said:
@ Kess- I don't know if I should "Clearly be voting Spite and not Omtose for that". I see what you are saying, but I don't think it's as cut and dry as you make it out to be.
showing, that my last post was in response to his deleted post.
Sorrit, on 20 April 2010 - 04:24 PM, said:
woah... x-post. and my last post is invalid cause Kesso just deleted wall-o text....
hiding a mistake Kess?
hiding a mistake Kess?
Here is Korbas' immediate reaction.. this all happened pretty quick.
Korbas, on 20 April 2010 - 04:25 PM, said:
Kessobahn, on 20 April 2010 - 04:20 PM, said:
edit - wow, talk about a fail reply
For those of you who came in too late to see it. This was a long-ish post proclaiming me a possible symp for voting D'riss thus drawing attention away from Sorrit or Omtose. There were some quotes too.
This most be some of the most unacceptable shit I've seen in a mafia game in some time. Editing away an entire post? One must wonder what you accidentally revealed here.
I'm not gonna BS, I don't remember a lot of what was on the post, but the gist of what I remember is that he was really pushing me to vote Spite, and not Omtose. he himself said his post would break the game. I am going off what I remember here, if Omtose turns out inno, feel free to lynch me, I will take one for the team to clear things up, but I am pretty sure that Omtose is scum. and if he is, you can clear at least spite from the list of people that could be scum as well.
#275
Korvalain
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 10
- Joined: 05-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:33 PM
In fact, looking a bit more closely at this post...
Sorrit, are you exaggerating or what? Kesso said "he was going to try to cover for Omtose"? Obviously I didn't see the post, but are you really saying he said that or are you pushing things too far?
Not saying that TS's reaction to the whole Omtose thing isn't well suspect, but can we please try and determine what was and what was not said.
edit - cross post
Sorrit, on 20 April 2010 - 09:16 PM, said:
Wait what???
we have a self admitted scum, that went against the rules and edited his post, a post that I saw, and that basically said he was going to try to cover for Omtose because he had mixed up names in the past, ( among other things, but that was the part I do remember...it was a huge post) and I am the scum? wowza. I think we found another symp.
Also, why would I bring up the mistake if he was trying to signal me?
your logic is on par with D'riss' statistical skill. ( kidding D'riss!! )
we have a self admitted scum, that went against the rules and edited his post, a post that I saw, and that basically said he was going to try to cover for Omtose because he had mixed up names in the past, ( among other things, but that was the part I do remember...it was a huge post) and I am the scum? wowza. I think we found another symp.
Also, why would I bring up the mistake if he was trying to signal me?
your logic is on par with D'riss' statistical skill. ( kidding D'riss!! )
Sorrit, are you exaggerating or what? Kesso said "he was going to try to cover for Omtose"? Obviously I didn't see the post, but are you really saying he said that or are you pushing things too far?
Not saying that TS's reaction to the whole Omtose thing isn't well suspect, but can we please try and determine what was and what was not said.
edit - cross post
This post has been edited by Korvalain: 20 April 2010 - 09:35 PM
#277
Path-Shaper
- Mafia Modgod
-
- Group: Game Mod
- Posts: 1,255
- Joined: 01-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:46 PM
It is Day 2. 13 hours and 37 minutes remaining
18 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Sorrit, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
10 votes to lynch, 9 votes to go to night.
1 Vote for D'riss ( Korbas )
2 Votes for Omtose ( Sorrit, Korvalain )
1 Vote for Sorrit ( Tulas Shorn )
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Liosan, Omtose, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu
18 Players still alive: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Korbas, Korvalain, Liosan, Omtose, Sorrit, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu, Tulas Shorn
10 votes to lynch, 9 votes to go to night.
1 Vote for D'riss ( Korbas )
2 Votes for Omtose ( Sorrit, Korvalain )
1 Vote for Sorrit ( Tulas Shorn )
Players not voted: Alkend, Barghast, D'riss, Eloth, Galain, Gamelon, Hood's Path, Karatallid, Karosis, Kaschan, Liosan, Omtose, Spite, Sukul Ankhadu
This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 21 April 2010 - 04:48 AM
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
#278
Sorrit
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 1
- Joined: 17-June 09
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:47 PM
Town has 2 main Power roles.
Kesso wasn't one of them. His post was "game breaking" (those were his words) does that sound like somone that is on the side of town?
Obviously I can't be 100% sure, but other than a finder, there are no certainties in mafia. Gamebreaking usually refer's to scum as they have a much smaller margin for error. imo.
Kesso wasn't one of them. His post was "game breaking" (those were his words) does that sound like somone that is on the side of town?
Obviously I can't be 100% sure, but other than a finder, there are no certainties in mafia. Gamebreaking usually refer's to scum as they have a much smaller margin for error. imo.
#279
D'riss
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 103
- Joined: 05-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 09:59 PM
BLOCK OF TEXT INC. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
HERE THERE BE BLOCK OF TEXT. COVER YOUR EYES INITIALLY, AND PROCEED WITH CAUTION.
HERE BE BLOCK OF TEXT. UNFORTUNATELY YOU MIGHT READ IT. IF YOU SURVIVE IT, YOU MIGHT HAVE TO READ IT AGAIN.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The gentle breeze coming through the barred windows offered little comfort to D'riss... His eyes wandered into the
content of the ornate clay cup he was holding.The red wine seemed his only compassion, his solitude. But even that
was unable to stop the fire racing within him.He noticed the fingers, the accusing glares.Some weren't even carefull
to keep their voice low enough...
-Rebelous scum..
-Traitor..
The anger, the temper was rising..a flame turning to a bonfire and going.. to inferno...If the conditions were different
he wouldn't even hesitate, there was only one way to answer such preposterous insults and accusations.And that would be
with the end of his sword.
He shook his head, trying to clear his thoughts.Tiny drops of sweat appeared to his forhead.He raised the cup once more.
He had forgotten how many times he has done that, now.It reached his lips, but as soon as the chilled liquid touched his
tongue he froze...
Whoosing sounds from dresses coming up behind him...
Tiny footsters on the wooden floor..
Female whispers...
-Chong Ji is dead...
-The Commandant of the Ru Nan is dead..
Suddenly the wine didn't taste good anymore.Bitter.. rotten..
With one swift move, he rose from his crossleged position, turned sideways and took two quick steps.The women almost bumped
into him , and were quick to avert their eyes towards the floor once they recognized the Emperial Officer Regalia.
The volume of his voice was low, but deadly clear.A sharp order.The women rushed towards the exit of the Grant Hall...
Making his way to the center of the room, he inspected the walls.
-The west one will suffice.. It has enough space- he thought.
With steady assuring steps, he positioned himself infront of it.. and waited.
Not for long.The two women were back, stopping 4 footsteps before him as protocol commanded.He quickly inspected what they
were carrying.With a satisfing nod, he passed his wine cup to one of them and lifted the big roll of papyrus paper she had
in her arms.Unfolding it slowly, he pinned its edges as high as he could, leting it run down the edge of the wall like a
waterfall.Unbuckling his guantlets, he secured them in his belt.With his swordarm, he picked up the elegant longbrush that
the second woman was holding, and dipped it lightly into the container with the dark paint..
-Chong Ji.. This is the only way I can draw.. I can only hope you will find it enough- he whispered.
With quick lashes from his right arm, the brush touched the paper and started dancing on it.As the ideograms appeared
one after the other, his rythm quickened.He was sure that enough set of eyes within the room were now focused
on what he was doing.It pleased him."
==========================================================================================================================
In case any of you doesn't remember, this was Eloths analysis:
He backed up said analysis once more , here
But dare I ask the rest of you: Is still Day 6 the earliest scum can win, or are we dancing into someone elses flute?
Just for Eloth, I will make another attempt at this.
I am aware that I am probably digging my own grave here (hell, I've dug half of it already, I might as well finish it)
The following analysis is based on the worse possible senario, meaning town makes the worse decisions they can make which
include: All lynches being townie, Town vig (if any, and if used) targets townie, Guard (if any) guards a townie instead of
scum, etc etc etc
State of the game: Day two, 18 players left , 2 roled scum and probably 3 symps.
If all scum survive, town loses (or scum win, whichever way you prefer) when there are 9 players left.
Out of the two roled scum , so far we have these possibilities:
1) Two seperate killers who simply got lucky, without any outside communication.
2) Two seperate killers with outside communication.
3) Outside communication for killers, but both need to target same person for a kill to register.
Worse case senario , Number (2).
Roles: guard/healer/vig/?? . Again not clear which combo would make the most balanced game. Perhaps someone else can come
up with that.Both killers being vigs could result in this ending sooner, and in gore.Both town and scum having a vig each?
Perhaps. Will try to present cases on
(1.1) No vigs
(1.2) One vig in game [Doesn't matter if vig is scum or town, since we are only worried about worse case senario, we can
assume if vig is town, his vig ends up targeting an inno {if vig ends up dying without using it, we go back to (1.1)}
(1.3) Two vigs in game (town/scum).
Now, let us see in how many days we can reach the Lynch-or-Lose bottleneck.
I.1) Two seperate killers with outside communication, no vigs in game, all lynches end up targeting townie.
Killer scum might decide to mix it up by killing 1 in one night and 2 in the other.This will prolong the game and
buy the town more time to get a successfull lynch.If they go all out which is the worse case senario, this will be
the outcome.
Day 2:18 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 15 left
Day 3:15 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 12 left
Day 4:12 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 9 left (Game Over)
I.2) Same case as (I.1) but we add a vig in there. We will still make it to Day 4 with 11 alive if the vig is used on Day
2,3 or 4 killing a townie, so Day 4 remains the Lynch-or-lose Day.
I.3) Same case as (I.1) but with 2 vigs involved.
I.3.a ) Scum vig is used, townie vig isn't used- Refer to (I.2), Lynch-or-Lose Day 4.
I.3.b ) Scum vig is used, townie vig is used targeting a townie.If both are used before Day 4, we end up with 10 alive in
Day 4, making it again Lynch-or-Lose day.
II.1) Outside communication for killers but both need to target same person to register a kil, no vigs in game, all lynches
end up targeting townie.
Day 2:18 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 16 left
Day 3:16 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 14 left
Day 4:14 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 12 left
Day 5:12 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 10 left
Day 6:10 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 8 left (Game Over)
II.2) Same case as (I.2) but we add a vig in there.
II.2.a ) Vig gets used in Day 2, or 3, or 4.
Day 5:11alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 9 left (Game Over)
II.2.b ) Vig gets used in Day 5.
Day 5:12 alive, Vig + Lynch + 1 NK, 9 left (Game Over)
II.2.c ) Vig doesn't get used in Day 5.We end up in Day 6, which is already our Lynch-or-Lose day from (II.1).
II.3) Same case as (I.2) but we add two vigs in there.Any combination of them being used in Day 2, 3 , or 4 will leave us
with 10 alive in Day 5, making it the Lynch-or-Lose day.
Now having said that, if all hell breaks lose, and everything goes wrong, town can get cornered as early as Day 4.
Even if this night gets through with 1 NK, we still don't know if we are dealing with both scum needing to target the same
player for a kill , since they might decide to use that as a surprise, in the final push.Even if that is the case, if you
go back to (II.1) and replace any (1 NK) with (2 NK), it will get us to a Lynch-or-Lose in Day 5 (which might prove to be
enough time for the town or not, either way it gives the town one more day)
So the conclusion is this:
-If town is dealing with two killers that can kill seperetly with outside communication we have as little as Day 4, OR
they can use 1 NK in the following nights as a smokescreen and corner the town in Day 5.Vigs will not alter the worse
outcome.
-If the town is dealing with two killers that must target the same person to kil with outside communication, we have as
little as Day 6 without a vig, Day 5 if vigs are involved.
Now, is above mentioned analysis of the game sound, or am I missing something? And if it is, why does Eloth wants the town
to believe that they have until Day 6, when in fact there are some occassions that they clearly don't.
===========================================================================================================================
"With a final thrust, he added the last of it.Moving his hand sideways, he allowed the longbrush to fall into the container,
and he picked up his wine cup once more.Staring at the papyrus, his knuckles and slowly his fingers started to turn white.
Tiny wrinkles appeared on the surface of the calm liquid.
*CRACccccCCCKKKKKK*
Not being able to withstand more pressure, the clay gave in, shattering to various small pieces, that tinckled around on
the wooden floor among his feet.His eyes still danced on his writings, when he heard the tiny female cry from his right
side.Turning his head slightly , with the corner of his eye he caught one of the women starting at his hand, her position
almost leaning forward, ready to close in, when she noticed his gaze on her.Trembling, she lowered her arms and resumed
her previous posture.Only then did he take notice that something thinker and darker was now dripping from the edge of his
fingers, and landing on the small wine puddle on the floor.
-Oh, but it is only fiting.. He smiled crookingly, and raised his bloodied hand once more, adding to the papyrus hanging
on the wall.
"When the Son of Heaven commands, I can only obey.
I will remain here.
I am waiting."
He folded all the fingers inside his palm, and extended the middle one.He pressed his hand with such force on the paper,
that the wall behind it squicked in complain.
Satisfied with the imprint, he secured his gauntlets back, and with a quick wave dismissed both women.Marching back, he
once again assumed his crossleged position on the floor. This night there would be no warm sheets to cover his body, no
pillow to rest his head on.This room and its lifeless objects will be the witnesses of what ever fate might be.Unbuckling
the swordbelt, he ceremoniously folded it, and let it sit beside him.He rested the sword across his knees, and removed the
rope protector that tied the weapon to the sheathe.Right hand on the hilt, left hand at the edge of the seathe, he closed
his eyes...
And waited..."
PS: My apologies if this was too long, or redirects people from their train of thought- took some time to write it between chores and it
seems some were quicker than me and started building cases.Simply carry on, after that small break.
PSS: If your eyes bled from grammar or anything , I'm sorry. Well, not really.
PSSS: Emorp in before Emo-rp posts.
HERE THERE BE BLOCK OF TEXT. COVER YOUR EYES INITIALLY, AND PROCEED WITH CAUTION.
HERE BE BLOCK OF TEXT. UNFORTUNATELY YOU MIGHT READ IT. IF YOU SURVIVE IT, YOU MIGHT HAVE TO READ IT AGAIN.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The gentle breeze coming through the barred windows offered little comfort to D'riss... His eyes wandered into the
content of the ornate clay cup he was holding.The red wine seemed his only compassion, his solitude. But even that
was unable to stop the fire racing within him.He noticed the fingers, the accusing glares.Some weren't even carefull
to keep their voice low enough...
-Rebelous scum..
-Traitor..
The anger, the temper was rising..a flame turning to a bonfire and going.. to inferno...If the conditions were different
he wouldn't even hesitate, there was only one way to answer such preposterous insults and accusations.And that would be
with the end of his sword.
He shook his head, trying to clear his thoughts.Tiny drops of sweat appeared to his forhead.He raised the cup once more.
He had forgotten how many times he has done that, now.It reached his lips, but as soon as the chilled liquid touched his
tongue he froze...
Whoosing sounds from dresses coming up behind him...
Tiny footsters on the wooden floor..
Female whispers...
-Chong Ji is dead...
-The Commandant of the Ru Nan is dead..
Suddenly the wine didn't taste good anymore.Bitter.. rotten..
With one swift move, he rose from his crossleged position, turned sideways and took two quick steps.The women almost bumped
into him , and were quick to avert their eyes towards the floor once they recognized the Emperial Officer Regalia.
The volume of his voice was low, but deadly clear.A sharp order.The women rushed towards the exit of the Grant Hall...
Making his way to the center of the room, he inspected the walls.
-The west one will suffice.. It has enough space- he thought.
With steady assuring steps, he positioned himself infront of it.. and waited.
Not for long.The two women were back, stopping 4 footsteps before him as protocol commanded.He quickly inspected what they
were carrying.With a satisfing nod, he passed his wine cup to one of them and lifted the big roll of papyrus paper she had
in her arms.Unfolding it slowly, he pinned its edges as high as he could, leting it run down the edge of the wall like a
waterfall.Unbuckling his guantlets, he secured them in his belt.With his swordarm, he picked up the elegant longbrush that
the second woman was holding, and dipped it lightly into the container with the dark paint..
-Chong Ji.. This is the only way I can draw.. I can only hope you will find it enough- he whispered.
With quick lashes from his right arm, the brush touched the paper and started dancing on it.As the ideograms appeared
one after the other, his rythm quickened.He was sure that enough set of eyes within the room were now focused
on what he was doing.It pleased him."
==========================================================================================================================
In case any of you doesn't remember, this was Eloths analysis:
Quote
Now somone suggested two killers but there was only one kill, now in a twenty or so person game
would the mod only leave one kill in the game. Someone suggested a set up of two killers and three symp,
ok I can see the two killer argument but the three symps |I'll have to re read the OP. But based on a number
of 5 scum in 20 players and they win with majority. They need to get it to 9 players. They need to kill 11 people.
Or 9 people now. So with that Day 6 is the earliest they can win with 5 players with no losses
would the mod only leave one kill in the game. Someone suggested a set up of two killers and three symp,
ok I can see the two killer argument but the three symps |I'll have to re read the OP. But based on a number
of 5 scum in 20 players and they win with majority. They need to get it to 9 players. They need to kill 11 people.
Or 9 people now. So with that Day 6 is the earliest they can win with 5 players with no losses
He backed up said analysis once more , here
Quote
D'riss when you do math on mafia all we really need to know in the various set up that you imagine when will it
become crucial to get correct lynches before the scum win.
Which I already did.
become crucial to get correct lynches before the scum win.
Which I already did.
But dare I ask the rest of you: Is still Day 6 the earliest scum can win, or are we dancing into someone elses flute?
Just for Eloth, I will make another attempt at this.
I am aware that I am probably digging my own grave here (hell, I've dug half of it already, I might as well finish it)
The following analysis is based on the worse possible senario, meaning town makes the worse decisions they can make which
include: All lynches being townie, Town vig (if any, and if used) targets townie, Guard (if any) guards a townie instead of
scum, etc etc etc
State of the game: Day two, 18 players left , 2 roled scum and probably 3 symps.
If all scum survive, town loses (or scum win, whichever way you prefer) when there are 9 players left.
Out of the two roled scum , so far we have these possibilities:
1) Two seperate killers who simply got lucky, without any outside communication.
2) Two seperate killers with outside communication.
3) Outside communication for killers, but both need to target same person for a kill to register.
Worse case senario , Number (2).
Roles: guard/healer/vig/?? . Again not clear which combo would make the most balanced game. Perhaps someone else can come
up with that.Both killers being vigs could result in this ending sooner, and in gore.Both town and scum having a vig each?
Perhaps. Will try to present cases on
(1.1) No vigs
(1.2) One vig in game [Doesn't matter if vig is scum or town, since we are only worried about worse case senario, we can
assume if vig is town, his vig ends up targeting an inno {if vig ends up dying without using it, we go back to (1.1)}
(1.3) Two vigs in game (town/scum).
Now, let us see in how many days we can reach the Lynch-or-Lose bottleneck.
I.1) Two seperate killers with outside communication, no vigs in game, all lynches end up targeting townie.
Killer scum might decide to mix it up by killing 1 in one night and 2 in the other.This will prolong the game and
buy the town more time to get a successfull lynch.If they go all out which is the worse case senario, this will be
the outcome.
Day 2:18 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 15 left
Day 3:15 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 12 left
Day 4:12 alive, Lynch + 2 NK , 9 left (Game Over)
I.2) Same case as (I.1) but we add a vig in there. We will still make it to Day 4 with 11 alive if the vig is used on Day
2,3 or 4 killing a townie, so Day 4 remains the Lynch-or-lose Day.
I.3) Same case as (I.1) but with 2 vigs involved.
I.3.a ) Scum vig is used, townie vig isn't used- Refer to (I.2), Lynch-or-Lose Day 4.
I.3.b ) Scum vig is used, townie vig is used targeting a townie.If both are used before Day 4, we end up with 10 alive in
Day 4, making it again Lynch-or-Lose day.
II.1) Outside communication for killers but both need to target same person to register a kil, no vigs in game, all lynches
end up targeting townie.
Day 2:18 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 16 left
Day 3:16 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 14 left
Day 4:14 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 12 left
Day 5:12 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 10 left
Day 6:10 alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 8 left (Game Over)
II.2) Same case as (I.2) but we add a vig in there.
II.2.a ) Vig gets used in Day 2, or 3, or 4.
Day 5:11alive, Lynch + 1 NK , 9 left (Game Over)
II.2.b ) Vig gets used in Day 5.
Day 5:12 alive, Vig + Lynch + 1 NK, 9 left (Game Over)
II.2.c ) Vig doesn't get used in Day 5.We end up in Day 6, which is already our Lynch-or-Lose day from (II.1).
II.3) Same case as (I.2) but we add two vigs in there.Any combination of them being used in Day 2, 3 , or 4 will leave us
with 10 alive in Day 5, making it the Lynch-or-Lose day.
Now having said that, if all hell breaks lose, and everything goes wrong, town can get cornered as early as Day 4.
Even if this night gets through with 1 NK, we still don't know if we are dealing with both scum needing to target the same
player for a kill , since they might decide to use that as a surprise, in the final push.Even if that is the case, if you
go back to (II.1) and replace any (1 NK) with (2 NK), it will get us to a Lynch-or-Lose in Day 5 (which might prove to be
enough time for the town or not, either way it gives the town one more day)
So the conclusion is this:
-If town is dealing with two killers that can kill seperetly with outside communication we have as little as Day 4, OR
they can use 1 NK in the following nights as a smokescreen and corner the town in Day 5.Vigs will not alter the worse
outcome.
-If the town is dealing with two killers that must target the same person to kil with outside communication, we have as
little as Day 6 without a vig, Day 5 if vigs are involved.
Now, is above mentioned analysis of the game sound, or am I missing something? And if it is, why does Eloth wants the town
to believe that they have until Day 6, when in fact there are some occassions that they clearly don't.
===========================================================================================================================
"With a final thrust, he added the last of it.Moving his hand sideways, he allowed the longbrush to fall into the container,
and he picked up his wine cup once more.Staring at the papyrus, his knuckles and slowly his fingers started to turn white.
Tiny wrinkles appeared on the surface of the calm liquid.
*CRACccccCCCKKKKKK*
Not being able to withstand more pressure, the clay gave in, shattering to various small pieces, that tinckled around on
the wooden floor among his feet.His eyes still danced on his writings, when he heard the tiny female cry from his right
side.Turning his head slightly , with the corner of his eye he caught one of the women starting at his hand, her position
almost leaning forward, ready to close in, when she noticed his gaze on her.Trembling, she lowered her arms and resumed
her previous posture.Only then did he take notice that something thinker and darker was now dripping from the edge of his
fingers, and landing on the small wine puddle on the floor.
-Oh, but it is only fiting.. He smiled crookingly, and raised his bloodied hand once more, adding to the papyrus hanging
on the wall.
"When the Son of Heaven commands, I can only obey.
I will remain here.
I am waiting."
He folded all the fingers inside his palm, and extended the middle one.He pressed his hand with such force on the paper,
that the wall behind it squicked in complain.
Satisfied with the imprint, he secured his gauntlets back, and with a quick wave dismissed both women.Marching back, he
once again assumed his crossleged position on the floor. This night there would be no warm sheets to cover his body, no
pillow to rest his head on.This room and its lifeless objects will be the witnesses of what ever fate might be.Unbuckling
the swordbelt, he ceremoniously folded it, and let it sit beside him.He rested the sword across his knees, and removed the
rope protector that tied the weapon to the sheathe.Right hand on the hilt, left hand at the edge of the seathe, he closed
his eyes...
And waited..."
PS: My apologies if this was too long, or redirects people from their train of thought- took some time to write it between chores and it
seems some were quicker than me and started building cases.Simply carry on, after that small break.
PSS: If your eyes bled from grammar or anything , I'm sorry. Well, not really.
PSSS: Emorp in before Emo-rp posts.
#280
Hood's Path
- Recruit
-
- Group: Game alts
- Posts: 31
- Joined: 05-October 08
Posted 20 April 2010 - 10:01 PM
Interesting read up. A little confusing because I would guess there is a lot of room to obfuscate motives in what happened with Kesso.
I think the most sensible thing is to lynch Omtose because that will confirm/deny one interpretation of events. If Omtose turns up inno, Sorrit could indeed be trying to hide/PI himself amidst the speculation over what Kesso was getting at with his failed PM.
I will be gone for a bit, but will be back again some point before deadline.
Vote Omtose
I think the most sensible thing is to lynch Omtose because that will confirm/deny one interpretation of events. If Omtose turns up inno, Sorrit could indeed be trying to hide/PI himself amidst the speculation over what Kesso was getting at with his failed PM.
I will be gone for a bit, but will be back again some point before deadline.
Vote Omtose
