[Shadow]

Yay Health Care reform is now law in this country.

Ok, going back over Eloth's 50 posts, just going to point out things that stick out to me...

Eloth looks at Mockra and Kalse tied together. We know that this turned out to be false. Kalse was probably a Day 1 recruit, Mockra was RI.

Eloth, on 17 March 2010 - 02:58 AM, said:

Meh. 3 anons now.

Listen, I'm all for the Fener hate, as that alt should be Hall of Famed and written off, but that Mockra/Kalse exchange on page one was weird.

Eloth mentions Fener's early-game 'tie together' of Serc and myself as odd.

Eloth, on 17 March 2010 - 04:00 AM, said:

I've already stated the only weird thing that struck out to me. Other than I think Fener's random call out of Serc and Shadow.

I'm completely confused by this game so far, and while some of that is the game, some of it is just probably lack of reading comprehension so far. I dazed through the talk of faction distribution.

Here he speculates as to Fener's motives... but he also says that the Inquisition wouldn't let a Watch player through on Day 1. It's possible he's giving a clue here as to why Fener was not lynched, but it does also indicate that Inquisition may have information about the potential lynchee... which then makes me less sure about why they let D'rek get lynched.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 03:59 PM, said:

Weird game is weird.

Here are my two thoughts on Fener:

My original thought yesterday remains, someone who desperately wants to get lynched and dead for whatever reason. Or,

He was perhaps signaling possible recruitment targets yesterday to his master. Granted, that would mean each Watch started off with two players, but it would explain the ridiculous amount of finger-pointing per post and the lack of care of being lynched (Inquisition wouldn't let a Watch player through).

If it's #2, then they would only be recruits at this point at not the original recruiter.

But, that's a big IF because option 1 still seems entirely plausible.

Now he's trying to steer away from a Fener vote... indicating that he has no intention of wasting another day on Fener. Inquisition win after 10 days, so I can't see why Eloth wouldn't mind another Fener lynch unless he really does gain info about a potential lynchee.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:18 PM, said:

I can see the problems one would have with Mockra, the irregularities within his reasoning for voting Kalse, etc. However, I'm not in a hurry to lay down a vote on the first person to actually try to move away from Fener as other possible lynches. We have an idea what lynching Fener wound up doing, and we learned a great big ZERO from doing that, other than nobody died during the night.

Other people had some ideas and I'd like to hear them before laying down a vote.

This post series indicates, to me, that Ruse is almost certainly not a member of the Inquisition.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:25 PM, said:

Why would the inquisition let the lynch go through this time, Ruse? That's my only problem with it, if they didn't let it go through last time, why this time?

Ruse, on 18 March 2010 - 06:30 PM, said:

Because hes being a pain. Yesterday they had the risk of crippling a team, if he is a recruit then that risk isnt really there any more and he can be disposed of so we can more easily look for the people who actually matter

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:33 PM, said:

So, instead of perhaps creating an imbalance yesterday, they'd let one go through when they'd have even MORE reason to believe letting the lynch go through would create an imbalance? I'm not understanding that logic, but I might just be thick.

Edit: x-post @Ruse.

More to come...

[Shadow]

Nods in accord with Omtose, probably indicates Omtose is suspected of being RI or is a teammate.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 06:37 PM, said:

Omtose, on 18 March 2010 - 06:31 PM, said:

If fener wanted out of the game, he'd just ask for modkill. So, I reckon he's definetely doing what he is for a reason. I would imagine that reason would be ignored. And look at that, there have been at least a couple of people encouraging us simply to ignore him, for reasons I think are stupid. Shadows meta reasoning for example-If he was having trouble playing, why not request modkill rather than waste our time.

I don't like fener, and I don't like the people advocating us ignoring him entirely.

I agree with this which is why I was looking for anything in his posts other than "please kill me." Such as, is he fingering possible recruits, or something besides that.

Possible huge clue here in this rebuttal against the 'Mirror' proposal by Anthras (now known to be RI). Could be a clue about his faction's powers, could just be fishing for info.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 07:03 PM, said:

Anthras, on 18 March 2010 - 06:56 PM, said:

Omtose, on 18 March 2010 - 06:31 PM, said:

If fener wanted out of the game, he'd just ask for modkill. So, I reckon he's definetely doing what he is for a reason. I would imagine that reason would be ignored. And look at that, there have been at least a couple of people encouraging us simply to ignore him, for reasons I think are stupid. Shadows meta reasoning for example-If he was having trouble playing, why not request modkill rather than waste our time.

I don't like fener, and I don't like the people advocating us ignoring him entirely.

There may be a very good reason to ignore him:

Quote

Vitaly Ragoza (The Mirror) - a minor Other who was not associated with either side, but was turned into the Mirror by the Twilight itself in order to correct the imbalance between the Night Watch and Day Watch in Moscow. As the Mirror, he had an ability to match the power level of any Other he was combating at the time. In the span of two weeks, he killed Tiger Cub and drained Svetlana's power. Upon completing his mission, he vanished into the Twilight.

(from wikipedia)

If he were this mirror he'd want people to lynch/attack him to increase his own power as he 'matches' them. If it's true, then we definitely do want to ignore and avoid him.

Isn't that the role of the Inquisition this game, making that redundant? Or are you advocating a possible single-member faction?

Here's an argument with Gamelon over the Anthras vote... we know Anthras was RI, so Gamelon's vote and Eloth's suspicion does certainly elevate that in my eyes.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 08:21 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 18 March 2010 - 08:08 PM, said:

Anthras, on 18 March 2010 - 07:08 PM, said:

*snip...*

Not necessarily seperate faction, could be an inquisition member, or count as an RI. Or not. Don't know, but it would match well with the idea of Fener wanting to be lynched and obviously acting in such a way as to draw NAs.
Or, to add plenty of WIFOM, Fener could be acting as if he were this role in the hopes that someone like me would point this character out and everyone'd be freaked out about him.

Anthras thank you so much. I have been trying to find something that some one has said that woud thatI find suspicious enough to vote for. Up till now it had looked like a pretty clean game. Now however I think that we have finally seen a glimps of a watch member coming to the defence of a self confessed member of the watch. Now who would do such a thing. I would guess that a recruiter who was afraid to see his newly recruited killer die. Along that vein I would rather lynch a recruiter.

vote anthras

Have you read his clarification/defense, Gamelon? And do you really think the recruiter would so blatantly stick his neck out for a recent recruit? I'm asking in all seriousness because I don't believe a recruiter would be that dumb, and that makes your vote suspect.

PS: can we get a vote update, please?

[Shadow]

Clearly more suspicion of Gamelon... note that he mentions the Fener lynch, even though he clearly had a hand in stopping it. At this point, Eloth has NOT voted yet in the game, which is what's giving me pause.

Eloth, on 18 March 2010 - 11:42 PM, said:

I go away for a couple hours and Fener gets lynched. Again.

Gamelon, if you are still around would you mind answering my earlier question (despite the fact that you removed and hammered)?

Eloth probably dropped a massive clue bomb here. He's basically fingering Ruse and Galayn Lord for spreading confusion. He still claims total bewilderment at Anthras, and then he questions Gamelon about why Inquisition would ever let themselves be lynched. That reads, to me, as if he has full control over his own lynch.

Eloth, on 19 March 2010 - 08:01 PM, said:

I've caught up, but there is some weird reasoning going on around here.

Posts 457 and 466 by Ruse and GL, respectively. Both theorizing on Mockra killing Kalse with Mockra having recruited Kalse on the previous night. Mockra was the only person to vote Kalse and didn't in a poorly defended way and stood out a shit ton for it, then would go and kill recruit for it?

What? This reads like intentional confusing of people by the actual killer, as Mockra would be one of the first candidates after all the day one BS (if I'm remembering correctly, where Kalse was screwing around with him (I might have that backwards)), but the point remains they've been seemingly tied together the whole game. I would be astounded if Mockra was the killer who smoked Kalse for that reason.

Anthras.... I don't know what to think about you. That statement about how we don't know whether he is a recruit or not based solely on his level due to book knowledge absolutely REEKS of muddying the waters to me, just like the statement did yesterday about Fener possibly being the "Mirror" or whatever. Kalse was Daywatch, and that is undeniable. It is day two. Either DW/NW started with 3 players a piece, he is the recruit, or he is the recruiter. If he's the recruiter then DW is in huge trouble, but whatever this number level thing is leads me to believe a recruiter (who is the most important player on each team, imo) would be higher ranked that. The odds are equal to me that it's either a 3 member team with Kalse being an original member, but a lowly ranked one, or he is a first night recruit.

Gamelon: Explain this to my dense head.

Quote

Osseric: I think it's a pretty good bet that Fener is probably part of the inquisition with a role that lets him kill if he gets lynched. Thats where my money is anyway. In that case it's probably a good idea to vote for him, as it empowers the inquisitors.

Gamelon@Osseric: I think that you are very convenently FORGETTING that it is the inquisitors who haven't let him be lynched for the last 2 days. I would think that if he was a member of the inquisition then they would have let the day one lynch go through.

Why, ever, would the inquisition let a lynch go through on themselves? Their VC is survival!

Edit: X-post.

Eloth says that we're stalling by voting Fener.

Eloth, on 19 March 2010 - 08:06 PM, said:

By the by, voting for Fener to me at this point after two sequential failed deaths is basically stalling, and saying recruit away DW/NW. I do agree with Gamelon on that point.

More potential mechanics information. He may also be giving a clue here about the theory of lynching Fener granting him a killing power, but I'd have a hard time believing he'd agree with the mechanic if it were true, because it's basically asking someone to kill Fener. Plus, it completely goes against his idea that it's a waste of time to lynch Fener.

Eloth, on 19 March 2010 - 08:20 PM, said:

Maybe it's the usage of the language that I'm not getting. Osserc says that perhaps Fener is a member of the inquisition, who then get a kill each time he is lynched (but not necessarily let die by the inquisition). You respond with, well why didn't they let the day one lynch through (when neither lynch has gone through to death)?

No lynches have been let through. Zero. Thus, they wouldn't let any lynch of him through because they get a kill every time they block it.

Lynch does not = death this game. It equals waiting on a panel to decide whether or not you die.

Here he tells me and restates his opinion... lynching Fener is a waste of time.

Eloth, on 19 March 2010 - 08:33 PM, said:

DP, sorry.

Shadow, on 19 March 2010 - 08:29 PM, said:

And contrary to Eloth's opinion, I'm not entirely sure that a Fener lynch today is a bad idea. Most of the 'ties' in this game seem to go back to Fener. Fener+Mockra, Fener+Gamelon, Fener+Anthras. Unless there's a particular reason the Inquisition think he should be spared, or he is one, I would guess that the third time would be the charm. But I also understand the sense of futility in it, as well.

But, we all know that Fener is someone that is definitely lynchable. Meaning, nobody really cares all that much about keeping him around, do they? We don't learn who is more or less likely to vote for an alternative candidate.

Still more....

[Shadow]

He votes Mockra now. This indicates that he may be interested in seeing Mockra die, or he may truly gain information about players when they are lynched.

Eloth, on 19 March 2010 - 08:38 PM, said:

Alright. Mockra was an early candidate yesterday for his weird vote on Kalse, who is now dead. He slipped through and we ended up lynching Fener again with no other candidates than Anthras at the very end.

Let's see where Mockra leads us.

Vote Mockra.

There's a lot of bantering and non-informative posts, and then we get this gem after the Anthras reveal. Again, it seems to indicate that he controls his own lynch, and it may also be a tool to try and gain information about why Anthras is lying.

Eloth, on 22 March 2010 - 08:20 PM, said:

Why out yourself as Inquisition if you control the lynch, Anthras?

Edit: X-post. Again.

Could be another clue as to whether or not Eloth wanted to really lynch Anthras. Could have been debating if the reveal was done to soak NAs or not.

Eloth, on 22 March 2010 - 09:26 PM, said:

Osseric, on 22 March 2010 - 09:24 PM, said:

wow, thats quite a reveal.

But, why wouldn't the inquisition control their fate? I think if you really were an inquisitor, you wouldn't have revealed.

Also, if you are inquisition, why would you try to out people on the Watches? wouldn't that just point the 2 sides out to each other? I thought inquisition needed balance?

It's not adding up. But maybe i am misunderstanding their VC.

The first part is answered above and is a matter of believability.

Two is a better point.

I'm trying to weigh game-play versus reveal right now.

And his last post. He never shared his ideas with the thread, but maybe he did so with his team.

Eloth, on 23 March 2010 - 04:15 AM, said:

It's night, but I have some ideas, now, definitely.

[Shadow]

Overall, I get pretty much the following... maybe it's not best to state all of this info, but some of it conflicts with each other. I'm ignoring dead players at this point, since we already know them.

• Lynching Fener is pointless, it won't go through. Possible Inquisition or knows he is RI?
• He's REALLY chummy with Osseric. Possible Inquisition or knows he is RI?
  • Osseric was not a big Fener fan, so the above two conflict.
• He was fairly chummy with Omtose on Day 1/2. Possible Inquisition or knows he's RI?
• He has a lot of suspicion of Gamelon, Ruse, and Galayn Lord.
• He seemed to indicate that he can control his own lynch.
• He seemed to indicate that he learned information from a lynch, even if one didn't occur.
• He seems to be at odds with Anthras's mechanics discussion about the Mirror and lynch control, indicating he may have information about those two which he suspected Anthras may also have.
• Finally, he had suspicions he didn't openly share, possibly about players other than Gamelon, Ruse, and GL.

That's some food for thought, at least.

[Fener]

Phone is going dead...on later I hope

[Osseric]

i'm here- good sets of info there Shadow... I can only assume you have now been recruited as you are basically trying to out the inquisition...if you haven't been recruited, thats a risky maneuver as we are down one inquisition already.

that being said, it does give my thoughts a little more direction as to who the NW leader might be. Of the three GL, Ruse and Gamelon i think Ruse or Gamelon to be the most likely NW leads. Though GL has been playing a rather smooth game, based on his posts, I don't really see him as the leader type. He posts when he is on, and has made some good points regarding the watch in regards to kills. Though he might be the leader... I really don't see it.

Gamelon and Ruse are a conflict in styles. Ruse has really had no pressure other than the little observations thrown out by Eloth. Has been a very high poster, but hasn't been very controversial. Gamelon on the other hand, has been more of a middling poster, had a few tussels with various people (Myself included), and basically was a bulldog going after Anthras, a roleless.

Gonna go back and see if I can find any particular quotes that might shed some light on if they are possible leaders. Current Gut says that Gamelon might be the NW lead, more-so that Ruse...but that is just gut. I have no evidence for that feeling, and reserve the right to change opinion after looking over both of them.



One thing that i do think is interesting, is that it looks like the inquisitors do get information about who is lynched. Otherwise I think he would have been much more receptive to a Fener Lynch on day 3. (Seems like he wanted a different lynch, to garner more info)

[Shadow]

Well, FWIW, I did offer a disclaimer that the information I found should not necessarily "go public" but I was already halfway done and it would have looked pretty bad if I had suddenly stopped reading it over. Yes, it does somewhat point to you, Fener, and Omtose as potential teammates, but it doesn't mean that I've been recruited.

I firmly believe that the NW and the DW act upon their existing plans and don't really use "thread speculation" for their plans. Reveals probably play into the plans, but since scum factions know more information about the game than the uneducated masses, it's unwise to assume that just because I think I'm potentially outing a faction that I am actually doing so. Maybe I'm completely wrong. Maybe Gamelon, Ruse, and GL are potential faction mates and he didn't want to be seen as tied to them (the "distance" argument).

Suffice to say, I wouldn't read too much into my Inquisition speculation other than me using it a place where I can try to organize a vote without potentially harming more of the Inquisition.

[Shadow]

Also, my 'gut' is also speaking to me and it says that with all of the discussion Eloth had about Gamelon, I would be somewhat surprised if that turned out to be Eloth's prime suspect. Remember, he didn't want to name any suspects before he died, but had no trouble questioning Gamelon's motives all day... that would indicate that he may not have suspected Gamelon as much as he let on.

I do agree with you about Ruse. Very high poster, very much out of the spotlight. GL I'm pretty neutral on. I'm suspicious of him, but I was pretty damn suspicious of Mockra and Anthras too.

That probably means someone out of the light like D'riss or Omtose is really the bad guy

[Osseric]

Yeah, Omtose has been pretty chill as well, though he did throw a jab at Gamelon yesterday. This leads me to think that While Omtose could be game's master, it makes it less likely that gamelon is Omtose's master (If there is a connection at all) .


D'riss-...maybe less of a bead on him, he hasn't seemed overly knowledgable, but has been rather non controversial. I could swing either way on him. Actually i'll add him to my re-read list. he very well could be a leader.


I have very little CPU time atm, so my read on Ruse D'riss and Game will have to wait a few hours.

[Omtose]

Shadow, you've got me a bit confused.

You speculate about what the lack of a fener lynch means, suggesting "Possible Inquisition or knows he is RI?" as an explanation.
You then go on to speculate about a team involving fener. If fener is on a team that know each other, that rules out RI.

So, after deciding that you think Fener is, if roled, most likely inquisition, why did you think it would be a clever move to go ahead and point out everyone you thought most likely to be on his team?

Yes, you offered a disclaimer. That doesn't stop that kind of speculation seeming less than innocent. In fact, it just means that you were aware of what you were doing.

You say it would have looked bad had you stopped half way, but I disagree. That could easily have been explained away. Or you could have said "I don't want to post because it might highlight the inquisition". Speculating about the inquisition is potentially much more harmful than stoppinf half-way.

[Omtose]

Osseric, on 23 March 2010 - 07:19 PM, said:

Omtose has been pretty chill as well...

[Omtose]

Shadow, on 23 March 2010 - 06:45 PM, said:

Suffice to say, I wouldn't read too much into my Inquisition speculation other than me using it a place where I can try to organize a vote without potentially harming more of the Inquisition.

I disagree.

Particularly considering that the inquis are potentially unlynchable(though this would be true even if they wouldn't be), it is far more dangerous outing them on thread than risking accidentally lynching them.

That's like saying "This evidence suggests X is a finder, so lets not lynch him" in a meat and potatoes game. Sure, maybe he's not lynched, but theres a large chance he wouldn't be anyhow, and so exposing him to the enemy is far more harmful. Same goes for the inquisition.

[Shadow]

Well, I appreciate the insight, Omtose, but I have to disagree with you.

First, had I stopped my readthrough half-way through, only to offer a, "I'm afraid I can't continue for fear of highlighting the inquisition," I almost certainly would be viewed negatively because I'd basically be saying, "If you read through Eloth's remaining posts, you can find clues about the Inquisition." Then I'm saying it without saying, and that is just pussyfooting around the issue.

As a side note, I speculated that maybe Eloth learned something about Fener through the lynch (note Eloth seemed annoyed that Fener got speed lynched again on Day 2). Ergo, maybe he learned information about Fener being RI. It's also possible Fener was a teammate. I'm just offering what I feel are two valid explanations.

Second, I really am not that worried about outing potential inquisition because they already apparently control their own lynch, and it's just as important for the two watches to attack each other as it is to attack the inquisition. We're down to 10 people left in the game, and the odds that all remaining members of the Inquisition are in the pool of you, Osseric, and Fener are extremely slim. The 'distancing' argument could easily apply and you could say they're in the group of Gamelon, Ruse, and GL. So now you have 6 players out of 10 who could be Inquisition based on that alone. Couple that with teams playing for themselves, and I'm really not worried about the Inquisition suddenly being 'fingered.'

edit: Grammar fail

This post has been edited by Shadow: 23 March 2010 - 10:21 PM

[Shadow]

Unfortunately, the only vote Eloth ever made was on Mockra, who is dead. So we don't have any extra information to go on. I think for today's vote it's best to vote for someone that is one of his suspects, even if it was not one of the mysterious ones.

So I want to vote for Gamelon, Ruse, or GL today. My gut says Ruse, my brain says GL, and my reading says Gamelon so that's where I'm at, at the moment. I'd be OK voting elsewhere, but mostly as an add-on vote if a decent case is made.

[Omtose]

Shadow, on 23 March 2010 - 10:20 PM, said:

Well, I appreciate the insight, Omtose, but I have to disagree with you.

First, had I stopped my readthrough half-way through, only to offer a, "I'm afraid I can't continue for fear of highlighting the inquisition," I almost certainly would be viewed negatively because I'd basically be saying, "If you read through Eloth's remaining posts, you can find clues about the Inquisition." Then I'm saying it without saying, and that is just pussyfooting around the issue.

Which is like saying "If you read the thread, you can find clues about the inquisition". And saying that it is possible to interpret the inquis from someones post is different from posting the names of thread for the scum.

Quote

As a side note, I speculated that maybe Eloth learned something about Fener through the lynch (note Eloth seemed annoyed that Fener got speed lynched again on Day 2). Ergo, maybe he learned information about Fener being RI. It's also possible Fener was a teammate. I'm just offering what I feel are two valid explanations.

Which doesn't really help the innos much, and point a flashing arrow above possible inquisition members for the scum. Not worth it.

Quote

Second, I really am not that worried about outing potential inquisition because they already apparently control their own lynch, and it's just as important for the two watches to attack each other as it is to attack the inquisition. We're down to 10 people left in the game, and the odds that all remaining members of the Inquisition are in the pool of you, Osseric, and Fener are extremely slim. The 'distancing' argument could easily apply and you could say they're in the group of Gamelon, Ruse, and GL. So now you have 6 players out of 10 who could be Inquisition based on that alone. Couple that with teams playing for themselves, and I'm really not worried about the Inquisition suddenly being 'fingered.'

So, you think they can control their own lynches. That's odd, since a few posts ago imply you didn't want us to harm inquisition. But if you think they control their lynches, how could we? Surely, if we can't harm them with lynches, it's far more harmful to potentially point them out to people who can.

Shadow said:

Suffice to say, I wouldn't read too much into my Inquisition speculation other than me using it a place where I can try to organize a vote without potentially harming more of the Inquisition.

Vote shadow

There are a couple of reasons for this.

He's being contradictory.
He's rooting around for inquisition to offer explanations that gain us very little.
He's being kind of middle of the road/agreeable.

Edit: Fixed tags.

This post has been edited by Omtose: 23 March 2010 - 10:31 PM

[Omtose]

Got to go for a bit.

[Shadow]

Well, I think it would be obvious they can control their own lynches based on Eloth's posts. But we saw yesterday that they are willing to lynch people. We have no idea what would have happened if Mockra had hit all of the necessary votes on Day 3, so all we have are 2 failed Fener lynches and one Anthras lynch, coupled with Eloth's clues, to figure out how they work.

There is no contradiction to what I'm saying. I want information to be known and explored. Where theory contradictions exist, I note them.

I never once stated I wanted the Inquisition to stand and be counted. I am offering explanations based upon the given evidence.

However, you have done a fairly good job of showing up, arguing against me (for talking, basically), and then disappearing, so I can't help but think your master must be in the group of people that I wish to vote.

edit: Oh, and I will agree (amusingly) that I'm being middle of the road and agreeable, but 1) Isn't everyone being middle of the road right now? You're being middle of the road for trying to attack me for supposedly trying to finger the neutral faction. 2) Why wouldn't I be agreeable? No sense spewing invective-filled rants like some of our members have been doing (*cough* Fener *cough*). It's possible to disagree with someone, to even try and get that individual lynched out of the game, but be friendly and rational about it. It's just a game, after all!

This post has been edited by Shadow: 23 March 2010 - 10:46 PM

[Shadow]

Now, since a bunch of people are reading the thread (over half of our current total), what are all of your takes on this mess?

[Ruse]

Ok Shadow, in your little summary you state that Eloth had a lot of suspicion of me, yet going through your little barrage of quotes all i could find was a brief comment about why i thought that the inquisition should get rid of Fener, and then a brief mention of me and GL possibly stirring stuff over the Kalse kill. How is this "a lot of suspicion" exactly?

Also why exactly are Eloths suspicions likely to be any more accurate than any of ours, just because he turned out to be an inquisitor doesnt mean he was god. At the moment we can probably assume that Fener isnt one of the starting members of a faction but other than that im not really sure how much stock to put in it.