[alt146]

I know I've asked this before, but what do you think the chances of the red spy still having a BP are?

[Shinrei]

Breadmaster, it would only be suspicious if there was a symp in the game. I have reason to believe HD is inno. Which is why I'm looking at you and alt as red spy candidate. And between you two, I think alt is more likely.

[HoosierDaddy]

I don't know if this was addressed to me or not, but I'll throw my opinion out there.

At the beginning of the game, I would have said odds are extremely low that Red Spy still had BP, but that was because of the amount of vigs and kills present. However, we've all been pretty much responsible with those powers, so I'm guessing it's below 50/50.

[Breadmaster]

Shinrei, on Jul 13 2009, 03:09 AM, said:

Isn't a role missing though? There are 9 players and 10 roles, so one of them doesn't exist right?

By my count, the Pyro, Soldier, Heavy, Sniper and Red Spy are still potential (obviously the Spy is for sure), so there is a blue role that didn't get assigned.

Given the day kill and lack of night killing, I'd say it's the heavy or the sniper who isn't in the game.

[Shinrei]

alt146, on Jul 13 2009, 03:26 PM, said:

I know I've asked this before, but what do you think the chances of the red spy still having a BP are?

Well, since there has been only 1 kill per night, he probably still has it since he kills anyone who makes the attempt.

Why does that matter though? If we lynch wrong, and red spy kills, that's 1 scum and 1 inno left, game over.

[alt146]

HoosierDaddy, on Jul 13 2009, 04:29 PM, said:

I don't know if this was addressed to me or not, but I'll throw my opinion out there.

At the beginning of the game, I would have said odds are extremely low that Red Spy still had BP, but that was because of the amount of vigs and kills present. However, we've all been pretty much responsible with those powers, so I'm guessing it's below 50/50.

That's a pity. If we could be reasonably sure the Red Spy's BP was gone, there would be a chance we could still vig him tonight. Guess we will just have to lynch very carefully.

[HoosierDaddy]

I feel like I'm in a fishbowl. Hi Morgy and Tapper!

[HoosierDaddy]

Lol. That'll get rid of 'em!

[Breadmaster]

alt146, on Jul 13 2009, 03:48 AM, said:

What do you guys think are the chances of the spy still having his BP?

I'd say very high. Like 100%. The red spy's knife attack occurs before other kills, so there would have been at least two night kills if the BP had been hit, since the BP kills, as well.

For a second I had an epiphany and everything made sense because I thought Lish was the demo man and suicide-bombed the right person, but then I looked back and he saw he was the blu spy...

So, yeah, 100%.

[HoosierDaddy]

Caught up now, Breadmaster?

[Breadmaster]

Path-Shaper, on Jul 11 2009, 09:37 AM, said:

BLU Spy's Invisibility Watch > Medic's Ubercharge > RED Spy's Butterfly Knife > All other Killing Actions Resolve Simultaneously > Sentry Gun will retaliate against whoever killed the Engineer > RED Spy puts Sapper Charges on Sentry > Engineer Removes Sapper Charges > All other non-Killing Actions Resolve Simultaneously (Sentry Gun is Built, Sticky Bombs planted, Jarate thrown) > Sentry is Destroyed if the Sappers were not removed.

Yeah, here's the order of night actions. Unless the red spy is not killing (which would be stupid, especially with the engineer dead), there's no chance we've hit his BP yet. Gotta lynch him at this point.

And, yes, I am now fully caught up.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 10 hours and 34 minutes remaining

4 Players still alive: alt146, Breadmaster, HoosierDaddy, Shinrei

3 votes to lynch, 2 votes to go to night

1 vote for alt146: ( Shinrei )

Players not voted: alt146, Breadmaster, HoosierDaddy

[HoosierDaddy]

Well, we have had to lynch right ever since it became D-Day. There are scenarios where this isn't D-Day, but wcs says it most definitely is.

[alt146]

HoosierDaddy, on Jul 13 2009, 04:49 PM, said:

Well, we have had to lynch right ever since it became D-Day. There are scenarios where this isn't D-Day, but wcs says it most definitely is.

It definitely seems that way.

[Breadmaster]

Shinrei, on Jul 13 2009, 10:31 AM, said:

alt146, on Jul 13 2009, 03:26 PM, said:

I know I've asked this before, but what do you think the chances of the red spy still having a BP are?

Well, since there has been only 1 kill per night, he probably still has it since he kills anyone who makes the attempt.

Why does that matter though? If we lynch wrong, and red spy kills, that's 1 scum and 1 inno left, game over.

IF there's a sniper in the game and IF the spy hits him in the night and IF no one else uses vigges, it's possible that we'll have another day at 2v1. Of course, the spy will then be able to immediately stand up and shoot the supposed sniper to win the game, but maybe the other two could vote him off before he does it? That would be hilarious if it worked, but, yeah, 99% chance that we lose if we get the lynch wrong.

Still, I think it's worth it to not use vigs tonight and throw out a vote as soon as P-S posts a scene.

[alt146]

Hmm, something just clicked. Shin if you're playing me then very well done.

vote Breadmaster

Edit - crosspost with scummiest post of the game, I feel better about that vote already.

This post has been edited by alt146: 13 July 2009 - 03:01 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

So, we have to get the lynch right.

The problem is, can we really "pressure?" We can't pressure someone into revealing,. Believe me, last night had me furiously thinking of how to defend myself. With no reveals, it's nearly impossible to defend yourself if people are serious. That is, unless someone bombs somebody else, but I think we can assume that isn't going to happen again.

Edit: Cross-post.

This post has been edited by HoosierDaddy: 13 July 2009 - 02:59 PM

[HoosierDaddy]

Well, I'm going to try to wrap my head around that Alt to see what you are seeing.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 10 hours and 19 minutes remaining

4 Players still alive: alt146, Breadmaster, HoosierDaddy, Shinrei

3 votes to lynch, 2 votes to go to night

1 vote for alt146: ( Shinrei )
1 vote for Breadmaster: ( alt146 )

Players not voted: Breadmaster, HoosierDaddy

[Shinrei]

uh, wat? Something clicked - vote breadmaster, I'm playing YOU? Does not compute.