[Path-Shaper]

After the seemingly unending day, the remaining brothers catching up on their sleep. But someone did more than just sleep this night, and upon waking you find that:

Meanas (Obdigore) is dead. He was NOT Big Ben

It is now Day 4. You have 36 hours remaining.


Sir Thursday

[Telas]

Ok.

Reveal:

I am the Finder.

Last night I investigated Gamelon.

Gamelon is Big Ben.

Vote Gamelon

On night one I found D'riss, who is not Big Ben.
On Night Two, I found Meanas.

[D'riss]

Telas, on May 20 2009, 02:14 PM, said:

Ok.

Reveal:

I am the Finder.

Last night I investigated Gamelon.

Gamelon is Big Ben.

Vote Gamelon

On night one I found D'riss, who is not Big Ben.
On Night Two, I found Meanas.

Nice work if you're telling the truth. Gamelon's been playing it silky smooth and helpful.

I obviously want to see how the day plays out to see if anybody counter reveals you before I vote.

edit: Typo

This post has been edited by D'riss: 20 May 2009 - 09:31 PM

[D'riss]

And did you really think that I would be scum if I was playing batshit crazy, Telas? Sheeeeeeesh

[Telas]

D'riss, on May 20 2009, 05:30 PM, said:

Telas, on May 20 2009, 02:14 PM, said:

Ok.

Reveal:

I am the Finder.

Last night I investigated Gamelon.

Gamelon is Big Ben.

Vote Gamelon

On night one I found D'riss, who is not Big Ben.
On Night Two, I found Meanas.

Nice work if you're telling the truth. Gamelon's been playing it silky smooth and helpful.

I obviously want to see how the day play out to see if anybody counter reveals you before I vote.

Of course. It'd be a bit bloody stupid lynching before people had a chance

[Telas]

D'riss, on May 20 2009, 05:31 PM, said:

And did you really think that I would be scum if I was playing batshit crazy, Telas? Sheeeeeeesh

Meh, I needed to be sure, because if I wasn't it'd be distracting me all game, which could be costly.

[D'riss]

Well considering our little tizzy on Day 1 that I mostly used to stir up the sand, I guess I don't blame you.

Assuming your reveal is legit, let's tilt back a pint each in celebration of Big Ben's eventual lynch!

[Telas]

D'riss, on May 20 2009, 05:36 PM, said:

Well considering our little tizzy on Day 1 that I mostly used to stir up the sand, I guess I don't blame you.

Assuming your reveal is legit, let's tilt back a pint each in celebration of Big Ben's eventual lynch!

Whooo

Ofc, it's straight back to square one after lynch

[D'riss]

Telas, on May 20 2009, 02:37 PM, said:

D'riss, on May 20 2009, 05:36 PM, said:

Well considering our little tizzy on Day 1 that I mostly used to stir up the sand, I guess I don't blame you.

Assuming your reveal is legit, let's tilt back a pint each in celebration of Big Ben's eventual lynch!

Whooo

Ofc, it's straight back to square one after lynch

I know. You do realize that we're going to have to lynch you as the next most likely Big Ben, right ? (assuming the new one doesn't immediately kill you off)

This post has been edited by D'riss: 20 May 2009 - 09:42 PM

[Telas]

Actually, I'd say everyone has an equal chance of being chosen.

I mean, it's just WIFOM.

BB may think people trust roles more.
Or he may think that because everyone thinks roles are obvious, they're more likely lynch.

Etc.

He may also go for whoever he thinks we think is UB.

Which is a problem. I think the next best thing to do after BB would be to get rid of UB, if we have enough days to risk it(if it's not do or die) because then we reduce the numbers, so it's easier ot find BB.

[Telas]

Well, I g2g to bed now.

I'll be back tommorow, plenty of time, so will discuss whatever then.

Bye.

[D'riss]

Obi gets killed. Telas reveals finder. And the thread stays dead. What is wrong with the world?

edit: Anyone else think it's funny that Obi asked to not get modkilled because of the forum problems and the scum was kind enough to just kill him instead?

This post has been edited by D'riss: 20 May 2009 - 11:52 PM

[Tennes]

Boards are back

I guess we have to trust Telas, but I will wait till everyone else has come one just in case there is a counter.

Did the IPS stuff only happen after this game started? If so that joke about the game being so awesome last time we had one it broke the boards is kinda eery.

[Gamelon]

Ok, I just signed on.

There's nothing I can do about Telas' case to be honest. I can't counter reveal as finder or something like that, because I'm not a finder.

I am, however, innocent. D'riss, if you remember our conversation which led up to our attempt to lynch Telas, you'll know that the math is slowly working to BB's favor, but not so much in favor of the scum if Telas was BB faking silencing because Emur was UB.

Yesterday it was either 8 vs 1 or 7 vs 2. With Meanas dead, it is 7 vs 1 or 6 vs 2. Because of the reveal, I now believe that Telas is BB, and what he just did is pretty smart. If you go ahead and lynch me, I'm dead and he gets another kill. That makes it 5 vs 1 or 4 vs 2. If 4 vs 2, it's obviously over. Even at 5 vs 1 if you lynch him the next day after lynching me first, his soul is still going to switch over to a new host and our team is still in bad shape.

D'riss, Tennes and I started a lynch train on Telas, which I think would have likely continued today. So, Telas aka Big Ben took note and is buying just enough time to win the game for scum by "revealing".

So, as I see it, it basically comes down to a choice. Either you believe me, or you believe Telas. If there's no counter reveal, then I suppose a vote on me might make more sense. However, the usual way of doing it anyway is you follow the first reveal and then kill the fake finder if their info is false. But by this this point in our game, that method could very well end our chance to win. The double bonus for Telas' gamble is it's also quite possible by this point in the game the real finder is dead, so it's almost a win-win gamble for him to make.

Why'd Telas pick me for his "reveal"? Probably because of my "silky smooth play" or because I was the one who basically made the case that it made sense to lynch him.

So basically, it comes down to who you believe and choose to vote for. My choice is obvious of course.

Vote Telas

[Fener]

Tennes, on May 20 2009, 08:48 PM, said:

Did the IPS stuff only happen after this game started? If so that joke about the game being so awesome last time we had one it broke the boards is kinda eery.

Just an FUI, the boards did go down last game, if I am not mistaken, they went so far down, that we actually changed to the current board. By that I mean, Mafia caused the old board to completely eliminate us, so we had to find a new home....dammit, someone explain what happened! I can't even remember what the name of the old place was...ie this is the IPB that was the....blank, but whatever it was, it was shitty!

[Gamelon]

Man... the more I think of how the numbers work out and the usual way finder reveals are handled, that "reveal" is really brilliant.

[D'riss]

At this point, Gamelon, I've already worked that math in pretty sufficiently. It's kind of like an end-of-game lynch where it's you vs Telas, but at least I'm not the only one making the decision.

If we lynch you and Telas is scum, he wins if UB is still alive and does indeed buy himself an extra day to likely win if UB is dead (would be 3 v 1 after we lynch you then Telas and it's pretty much a 1-in-3 chance of town winning at that point).

Of course, if he is telling the truth, then he was indeed silenced over the weekend, you are scum, AND UB is still alive. So knowing it's D-Day, he is revealing because we have to win. Would he have revealed if he hadn't found scum last night? Impossible to know. Obviously he should have if he was innocent, but was he?

This is what I see.

Gamelon is BB, someone other than me and Telas is UB. Today is D-Day. Today is 6-2, tomorrow is 4-2 (also D-Day although we can vote night).
Telas is BB, someone other than me and Gamelon is UB. Today is D-Day. Today is 6-2, tomorrow is 4-2 (also D-Day although we can vote night).
Telas is BB, UB was Emurlahn and Telas faked silence over the weekend. Today is 7-1....
if we lynch Gamelon tomorrow is 5-1, then we lynch Telas and tomorrow is 3-1 (also D-Day although we can vote night).
if we lynch Telas tomorrow is 5-1, and we can lynch inno once before D-Day (not counting any night votes).

So, the discussion should be, how can we figure out which of those scenarios it is?

[D'riss]

Thinking it over for a few minutes I'm actually heavily against the idea of my third case. Namely, Telas is BB, UB is dead, and Telas is getting us to vote Gamelon to bring it to the end of the game at 3-1. The main reason why is that while I fingered Telas really early on for scum and panicked reactions, I never really thought he actually was scum (I'd laugh my ass off if I was actually right to accuse him).

So, that said, Telas has had a pretty easy game since Day 1. Why would he suddenly be making a suicide move to put the game into the hands of another player? If BB put himself in a position to be not highly suspected, why would he trade himself for one innocent in the hopes that his replacement wins the game for him?

No, I think it far more likely that today truly is DD and UB is still alive.

[Gamelon]

@ D'riss, that's why if UB is still alive, Telas really made a brilliant move.

edited to add: You're right, if UB is dead it's much more of a gamble for Telas. However, Telas was put under some pressure yesterday so his skating along wasn't looking to continue.

This post has been edited by Gamelon: 21 May 2009 - 01:59 AM

[Ruse]

Damn. Big reveal to digest here.

I'm not sure whether to believe Telas or Gamelon here. From my experience, I've come to hate finder reveals, especially at this point in the game. More often than not, a fake reveal becomes possible with the real finder dead, thereby allowing scum to control the game and drive it forward.
On the other hand, the math does indicate that now would be the ideal time for a finder reveal.

I'm inclined to believe D'riss's first two scenarios over the third since it'd be nigh impossible to win since an inno CF would get him lynched the subsequent day.



I'm going to mull it over while I go to bed...hopefully there'll be more discussion tomorrow.