[Kaschan]

so am i.

[Rashan]

My last post was a cross-post with Gaylan Lord, but it just proves I understood him right.

[Kaschan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 08:15 PM, said:

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:08 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 09:37 PM, said:

That implies that you've not only done a find but then a guard.

what?

I'm assuming the predator kills someone every night (that only makes sense, right?)

Therefore, if there's only one death I can assume one of 2 possibilities:

1.) The predator killed them

2.) Someone did a FIND on someone, confirmed as a predator, then proceeded to GUARD them

How else would you know the predator did not make a kill?
Or are you the predator, and you know you withheld your nk?

thats a bit complicated. plus if a finder discovered the pred why wuld they not reveal? also why would a finder be a guard?

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:16 PM, said:

Gaylord, you're doing some strange back-pedaling there. You're saying you assumed it was a Pred kill because otherwise it would mean the improbable events of a guard, that is also a finder because otherwise a guard would not have known who to guard?

How about a bulletproof, a healer, or just indeed a lucky guard (no need to be a finder too, with Company men, Aliens and Pred around I would guard every night if I was a guard)?

remove vote
vote Galain Lord

I don't like that reaction of yours. I think you slipped.

What?

Someone's confusing themselves...

Here, I'll explain:

One person died last night. What is more probable:

The guy who can kill someone every night, or
Someone night vigged and the predator was guarded/bp'd/attacked a healed target

Considering that 3 or 4 vigs have already been used, I think it's unlikely many more remain.

If Venge gave another BP aside from the predator...

Alright, maybe the predator attacked someone who got healed...let's be generous and say there are still 2 healers out there and they both healed a different person. Last night, the predator had a 2/13 chance of hitting that healed person...
Meanwhile, a guard WITHOUT a finder to confirm their suspicion has a 1/13 chance of guarding the predator.

If you can be ABSOLUTELY sure the predator did not kill anyone last night (as you seem to be asserting), then you must be COMPLETELY sure you guarded the predator last night. The ONLY other possibility is that YOU are in fact the predator.

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:22 PM, said:

My last post was a cross-post with Gaylan Lord, but it just proves I understood him right.

Are you kidding me? This is like last game all over again...some people are just so fucking annoying to deal with. I really hope you aren't who I think you are.

Come to think of it, it might be better if you are. Then it's only one person whose logic is fucked up.

[Rashan]

Kaschan, on Feb 28 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

thats a bit complicated. plus if a finder discovered the pred why wuld they not reveal? also why would a finder be a guard?

That's indeed absurd, and the reason why he sayd he assumed so easily his hypothesis number 1 ).

Notice he didn't put 3) and 4) etc like nothing else could have happened, and I strongly disagree.

[Kaschan]

i am more worried by the fact than your the first persono be sure the predator DID kill last night. you said you didnt read the scene, and just said another kill for the pred, when the amiguity ofd the scene compared to previous ones left the rest of us scratching our heads.

[Rashan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

If you can be ABSOLUTELY sure the predator did not kill anyone last night (as you seem to be asserting), then you must be COMPLETELY sure you guarded the predator last night. The ONLY other possibility is that YOU are in fact the predator.

WTF, I never said I was ABSOLUTELY sure. I even conceded you might be right.

It's just we were wondering what happened and you arrive and go

"Wow, the predator kills again, no point looking too hard in the target choice with the wifom right guys?" as if there was no doubt.

[Rashan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

Considering that 3 or 4 vigs have already been used, I think it's unlikely many more remain.
.

?

Besides D'riss, who else was (most probably) Marine-vigged?

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:28 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

Considering that 3 or 4 vigs have already been used, I think it's unlikely many more remain.
.

?

Besides D'riss, who else was (most probably) Marine-vigged?

There was serc's suicide, which counts as a vig + a suicide...that's 3, right? Sort of.

[Rashan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:24 PM, said:

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:22 PM, said:

My last post was a cross-post with Gaylan Lord, but it just proves I understood him right.

Are you kidding me? This is like last game all over again...some people are just so fucking annoying to deal with. I really hope you aren't who I think you are.

Come to think of it, it might be better if you are. Then it's only one person whose logic is fucked up.

That's a lame thing to say by the way

[Rashan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:28 PM, said:

There was serc's suicide, which counts as a vig + a suicide...that's 3, right? Sort of.

Yes, Serc vigged himself and Fener was so sad he commited suicide.

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:26 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

If you can be ABSOLUTELY sure the predator did not kill anyone last night (as you seem to be asserting), then you must be COMPLETELY sure you guarded the predator last night. The ONLY other possibility is that YOU are in fact the predator.

WTF, I never said I was ABSOLUTELY sure. I even conceded you might be right.

It's just we were wondering what happened and you arrive and go

"Wow, the predator kills again, no point looking too hard in the target choice with the wifom right guys?" as if there was no doubt.

I'm making the assumption it was the predator, because by my logic all other possibilities are unlikely. It's the most likely possibility, so I assume it IS what happened.

The only way one could know otherwise is if:

1.) They vigged Telas last night
2.) They had a confirmed find on the predator (either themselves, or via a lover) and decided to guard said confirmed find predator.
3.) They're the predator and they withheld their kill.

[Galayn Lord]

btw cross-posts are fun.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day 3 you have 28 hours and 23 minutes.

Ok I did a quick count and it looks like there are only 11 of you left alive... Very good... :snigger:

Which means that you need 6 to lynch and 6 to go to night.

1 vote for Tennes (kaschan)
1 vote for Galayn Lord (rashan)
1 vote for Anomandaris (silanah)
1 vote for Silanah (galayn lord)

Hung over I will probably on be on intermittently today errands and what not...Did I mention the hung over part..sigh....


-Vengeance

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 28 February 2009 - 08:35 PM

[Galayn Lord]

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:30 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:28 PM, said:

There was serc's suicide, which counts as a vig + a suicide...that's 3, right? Sort of.

Yes, Serc vigged himself and Fener was so sad he commited suicide.

I thought it was:

D'riss was night-vigged
Serc thought he was infected and suicided + ninja-killed (a la last game's ninjas) Fener

Besides, didn't venge explicitly state not to read into the scenes and that they were for entertainment value only?

[Path-Shaper]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 12:35 PM, said:

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:30 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:28 PM, said:

There was serc's suicide, which counts as a vig + a suicide...that's 3, right? Sort of.

Yes, Serc vigged himself and Fener was so sad he commited suicide.

I thought it was:

D'riss was night-vigged
Serc thought he was infected and suicided + ninja-killed (a la last game's ninjas) Fener

Besides, didn't venge explicitly state not to read into the scenes and that they were for entertainment value only?

Yes I DID.... oh sorry were you asking me...

In other news I am going to step off for a bit. Don't know were Tapper is and don't really know when I am going to get back... Try to behave :snigger:

[Rashan]

You're backpedaling hard.

You're trying to twist it as if I KNOW what happened and disagree with your opinion. It was actually the opposite, you KNEW what happened last night when everybody until now was hesitating to conclude too much.

I think it was a slip, you can come out all the logical and probabilities you want, and the different scenario etc., this only serves to prove that YOU were the one acting strange by assuming anything (and quickly telling us to not read anything in the nk because of WIFOM).

This post has been edited by Rashan: 28 February 2009 - 08:43 PM

[Ruse]

Who are the 11 players left? o.o

Galayn Lord
Rashan
Kaschan
Silanah
Anomandaris
Tennes
Mockra
Gamelon
and me ofc

Thats all I can think of...
and i dont remember anything from Mockra, Sil or Tennes O.o

[Rashan]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:35 PM, said:

Rashan, on Feb 28 2009, 03:30 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 28 2009, 10:28 PM, said:

There was serc's suicide, which counts as a vig + a suicide...that's 3, right? Sort of.

Yes, Serc vigged himself and Fener was so sad he commited suicide.

I thought it was:

D'riss was night-vigged
Serc thought he was infected and suicided + ninja-killed (a la last game's ninjas) Fener

Besides, didn't venge explicitly state not to read into the scenes and that they were for entertainment value only?

Of course, my post was sarcastic. Glad you brought back the number of marine vig to the more probable 1, not the 3-4 number you were throwing around to "prove" that possibility was exhausted.