[Liosan]

Damnit, that isnt good. I had korlat down as a possible double voter as they were on every train. I think we need to look at his suspicions, if the psycho's suspected a double voter was after them they would have tried to remove him. Does tennes even warrant mentioning? I do not think he wanted to play, i am hoping he wasn't innocent, but something tells me he must have been. By that rationale though i am confident he was roleless, or the mods might have been more forceful in making him play. If he was roled i would hope that ability would be passed on, losing a roled innocent through indolence is criminal and unfair to boot.

I am not going to vote anomandaris straight away, I do not want a speed lynch and my case wasn't complete. I made that clear when writing it, it only encompassed day 2. Ano was asking who had been suspicious of him, well i have put forward my suspicions a few times regarding him. I was hoping it might warrant more comment from other players, as it was meant as an opening for discussion not a definitive look, but i guess i will have to finish it today.

I do think that galayn may have been the creature, as my case was trying to point out, there was evidence that fener was recruited night one, and we had two night kills on night 2 so chances are no recruitment then. Therefore when galayn symped kaschan and tried to defend fener he must have been the creature recognising his masters recruit was in trouble. The fact that a similar relationship existed before the reveal between anomandaris, fener and kaschan makes me think that ano is the second necromancer. On day 3 and 4 i will try and prove this with relevant quotes, but just from memory i recall his reluctance to lynch either and his attempts at diverting the lynch of kaschan.

[Galain]

The Ano case was quite well constructed I thought. It linked Ano and Fener together quite closely, and with Fener showing up as undead...

edit:cross post

This post has been edited by Galain: 27 January 2009 - 09:51 AM

[Ruse]

Ahhhh...
missed a page, seen liosans look at day 2 and it does seem to link those players.
But it could just be coincidence like anno's defence says.
Having said that if nothing better is put forward i'd vote for him.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day 5 - 33 hours left

13 players still playing, 7 votes to lynch, 7 votes for night

1 vote Anomandaris (Omtose)



12 have not voted: Anomandaris, D'riss, Galain, Hood's Path, Liosan, Meanas, Mockra, Rashan, Ruse, Shadow, Silanah, Thyrllan.

[Omtose]

Liosan, on Jan 27 2009, 10:44 AM, said:

I am not going to vote anomandaris straight away, I do not want a speed lynch and my case wasn't complete. I made that clear when writing it, it only encompassed day 2. Ano was asking who had been suspicious of him, well i have put forward my suspicions a few times regarding him. I was hoping it might warrant more comment from other players, as it was meant as an opening for discussion not a definitive look, but i guess i will have to finish it today.

As said, i have fairly little time to post/contribute
I thought your case was complete for as much as it covered, and Ano was playing one of the lead violins yesterday with his examination of Shadow, Silanah and me - seeing how I was also involved there and then, I think that out of what I read I developed my own opinion of what he put down there - it was further reinforced by your case. I've taken that into account with my vote.

[Liosan]

Part 1 of another long one – this one is quite contradictory I am afraid but we need to be complete.

Galayn Lord, on Jan 22 2009, 06:52 PM, said:

Ok seems Kesso was right about Fener then. I think il go back and check over Kaschan now see if I can see what makes you suspicious.

Its worth noting these posts because we have previously seen a relationship between this group of four.

Anomandaris, on Jan 22 2009, 07:25 PM, said:

The other point is that it doesn't CI him as far as I'm concerned. Now that he has revealed as RI, he moves to the top of the list of players most likely to get NKed/Necro Recruited. I'm not going to be taking him completely at his word from now on, that's for sure.

EDIT: Crosspost with Shadow x3.

My problem with much of what ano says is that it can be interpreted badly if you want it to be, I have tried to be impartial though when making the case, as I always try to do because as kaschan and others argued about earlier in the game, having preconceptions does blind you to any possibilitiy other than the one you want. The key to any case that is worthwhile is finding evidence within the posts that cannot be taken either way. This post above for example can be taken badly if you want it to be in light of the fact that kessobahn was allowed to die, indeed there is a running theme in many of ano’s posts abot the cf as it is one of the most controversial topics in the game so far.

I included the next posts as background as they get referenced by others farther on.

Omtose, on Jan 23 2009, 11:22 AM, said:

Sil's case:

I like it. There are a few things that rub me the wrong way about the way Silanah posts it though.

1) Kaschan's consistently pushing attention onto Korlat without making a proper case, or presenting it as a case.
There is also twice a mention of Tennes, spread out over the days, so what we can conclude is that Kaschan is sticking to his guns. In that light, I dislike Silanah's statement of 'him being happy pushing a lynch on low posters that are not of his cult': jumping to assumptions here, and the target of that statement at that time was Silanah themselves.
But, the fact that Kaschan is consistent will future later, so keep it in mind.

2) the presentation of Kaschan trying to serve off Kessobahn as a liar.
He keeps the possibility open, specifically mentions it, but also says we should lynch Fener. He does present a sort of weak effort to lessen the suspicion on Fener (did nothing really scummy, it wasn't a code, we should wait for him).
Hold on, this last bit comes back later, too.

3) Kaschan 'holding off the train': plenty of people who do not want a speed lynch, I'd hardly call this unique and we should view it not by itself as a sign of being scummy (heck, I said the same thing ) but within the context of what he further says and does. See below, for he does not apply it consistently.

4) There's this gem.

Quote

Yeah, likely thing is we're just going to lynch Fener. But seems a bit rushed to lynch him without a response, if we have the chance to wait.

Having said that, haven't seen him on in a while so I reckon he's just given up the ghost and is avoiding the thread. That's what I do when I'm scum and been found out tongue.gif

eta. corrs post.

Definite weirdness. Day one - claim killer, then disappear. Day 2, vote random person when there is a massive lynch target to be addressed. Maybe Omtose is not really paying attention.

We shouldn't speedlynch, is the essence of his post. And then, I get named for weirdness exactly because I do not speed up the train, but say I am around to change votes... odd.
More, GL is called 'a random person' when his posts at that time WERE decidedly off and he WAS jumpy, and my vote on GL was exactly to both call attention to this, AND not speed the train to a premature lynch. See what he does here - cover for GL, and call attention on me. Nice diversion, especially if your cult member/recruit is going down, but there's 1 more guy to save.

5) the reactions to Korlat's vote and to Kesso's feelings.
I'm not going to say that Kessobahn was right about Kaschan also being scum. What I will say is that Kaschan has been overly dismissive of anything Kesso said after the lynch, for example, of the CF mechanic. Naturally, he knew his life would be on the line, next, if Kesso could continue his quest. Now, notice what happens what he's saying now: nothing but gut (twice in one post), he had nothing on me, no case, no evidence.

Damage control.

Added to that the brusque dismissal of GL's statements during and after Kesso's hunt on Fener by me calling attention to that as 'chasing a random person', and I a triangle of Fener, Kaschan and GL is developing as a group of scum in my mind.

Kaschan had given up on Fener where GL didn't, but GL made that defense way too clumsily. He indirectly downplays the attention I called to GL, thereby protecting a possible partner. He downplays Kesso's feelings on himself, as if proper evidence ever really mattered in Mafia... where the only solid piece of irrefutable evidence is by a confirmed finder or CF.
The gut is leading, and Morgoth has a pretty good gut.

So, all in all, I believe Kaschan is scum.
He's been covering for someone I find scummy, he's been consistently naming 2-3 people that are basically unlynchable as it stands as they are on the radar as lowposters, but haven't made slips --> giving the sense he's searching and participating, but provide a nice cover to hide behind, and he's right now defending himself by calling for facts - when he full well knows every 'fact' can be discarded or called in doubt unless a finder reveals.

Vote Kaschan

Galayn Lord, on Jan 23 2009, 12:55 PM, said:

Ok well that was a surprise, I dont know why Ampelas was killed, I cant really remember much that he's done so Il assume that was the killer trying to pick an unlikely recruit target. I was expecting kesso to get recruited so at the moment il assume that a guard managed to hit the recruiter.
Now this Kaschan thing does look suspicious, Im wary about lynching someone based on the hunch of one person but There do seem to be a lot of inconsistencies and suspicious play brought up by Omtose and Silanahs case so he may be the best bet of hitting a necro. I will try and properly go back and get a better impression later but I dont have a lot of time atm.

On the executioner thing I think it is probably more likely that we have 2 independant executioners and that its probably 1 symp and 1 inno but thats just a guess.

Anomandaris, on Jan 23 2009, 02:23 PM, said:

Mockra, on Jan 22 2009, 07:47 PM, said:

Medium is our main weapon agains the cult
as fro waht we can do--the witch can use her power ot prevent Kesso's recruitment, provided he wasn't recruited already.
If the psychic looks at him and he's not undead, the psychic can just not say anything tomorrow.
if he's undead, then the psychic speaks up and we get rid of him.

This post stood out to me as I was catching up. Why would anyone encourage the psychic to reveal at this point? As Team Inno, we should be keeping our finder hidden until the late game when he will actually be useful. Scummy behaviour, IMO. Unfortunately I don't have the time to look back through his posts and find some other choice tidbits, but I'll place my vote now and if noone else steps up to the plate I'll have a bash later when I'll have more time.


Vote Mockra

I am unsure about the reasoning behind this vote, and I called ano out on it at the time, the kaschan train was starting to roll though and this case does little to build any steam.

[Liosan]

Part 2

Kaschan, on Jan 23 2009, 06:31 PM, said:

Omtose, large parts of your "case" point out that I've been playing consistently and reasonably, so apologies if I don't try and contradict them.

You are trying to make out that I went onto some all out attack on you, or something, when all I did was call your vote on GL weird, which it was.

And that does not equal some kind of defence of GL either. It doesn't equal anything, tbh.

Anomandaris, on Jan 23 2009, 07:26 PM, said:

Have to say I really don't see much in either of the cases on Kaschan at all...going after low posters? Not especially scummy in my book. Wanting to wait for Fener to get a chance to put in a defence? I was doing that too...don't see anything wrong with it. Yeah, he was talking about the Korlat case without actually adding much to it...ok, fair enough. But commenting that a case exists isn't exactly a cardinal sin either.

In short, I'm quite concerned about how quickly Kaschan has been picking up votes based on what, as far as I can tell, aren't particularly strong cases.

EDIT: Crosspost with a lot of stuff.

Ano is always very reasonable and while it’s open to interpretation, yet again its linking to both fener and kaschan on the back of evidence that he is linked to them earlier in the game it builds up to imply there is a relationship there.

Anomandaris, on Jan 23 2009, 07:40 PM, said:

Liosan, on Jan 23 2009, 03:31 PM, said:

Mockra - Called for a finder reveal if kessobahn was actually a necromancer. I think there were possibly four people, myself included who were skeptical about the reveal and asked for a finder to investigate kessobahn. It is possible one of us is a killer, but i do not think asking a finder to investigate a day 2 reveal on a crucial role is all that strange. personally i am more worried by the possibility that they are a symp and am unsure why this wasn't mentioned with the vote as i think it would have added more weight behind that case.

As I said when I made the post, I didn't have time to go back and look for more stuff to back up my case. I'm going to do that now.


But in the mean time, I like the case on Galayn Lord. There's definitely something suspicious there - the backpedalling is rather obvious and fits with the profile of a scum making a mistake and trying to go on as if nothing happened. Kudos to Meanas for that, it's a good one. So, while I'm looking up stuff on Mockra, (and possibly longer, it depends what I find)

Remove Vote

Vote Galayn Lord


EDIT: Crosspost with Morgoth.

I think this is an important moment. I called out anomandaris on his mockra vote citing the reasoning was flawed. His case was on the call for a psychic to reveal when the original post regarded only revealing if morgoth was in fact scum. That a few players did this meant that anomandaris had selected one at random to make the case on, and when confronted by that he switches the vote to galayn lord.

Anomandaris, on Jan 23 2009, 07:43 PM, said:

I'm going to be annoyed if that's a lynch. Way, way too quick at this stage. Of course, I'll be eating my words if he does in fact turn out to be scum...but then, we aren't going to find out, are we? *sigh*

There were quite a few people who dropped votes and left - I'm suspicious. I think I'll forgo looking back at Mockra to see how this came about.

The case on Mockra has been dropped now completely in favour of the investigations on shadow, omtose and silanah. I have not included those cases as this one is long enough without more info in it, but they are good cases in their own right. Anomandaris is good at building cases and makes good points, and it is worth noting that the necromancers are also searching for the killers.

Galain, on Jan 23 2009, 10:13 PM, said:

My view on Kaschan, to answer Shadow, is that I probably would have voted for him. I think I posted earlier that Kesso's suspicions meant he was surely worth looking at, and I think an OK case was made. I did agree with Kaschan to some extent on the degree to which he was essentially being fingered by the gut feelings from Kesso, but I really really disliked his defence of himself, and this more than anything made me feel that he would have been my vote choice. He would narrowly have beaten out Tennes because Tennes has been annoying me, and being essentially useless.

Those two were the two obvious candidates, but I also have suspicions around, I think, Anomandaris as a possible symp double voter if there is one in place. I recall from day 1 there were elements of his play style I felt were vaguely scummy, and he has done nothing to disengender those thoughts. I wouldn't have voted for him at that point as I haven't had the opportunity to see if there is the textual backing for such a case. I plan on doing so at some point over this weekend.

Added to show another player voicing suspicions of anomandaris earlier in the game, after the kaschan lynch.

Anomandaris, on Jan 24 2009, 05:25 PM, said:

No new posts in 5 1/2 hours? Well I guess I'll step into the breach.

After the speed lynch yesterday, I got to thinking about how our understanding of the game is seriously impaired by not having a CF. We have no idea if we were onto a good thing or not in lynching Kaschan - I'm inclined to think negatively, myself. I didn't see much strength in the case at all, so I was very surprised when people started trumpeting that it was very strong and managed to push through a speed lynch. It occured to me that now there are no CFs, the scum have no need to hide any more. They can come out and be aggressive and push for lynches now, because noone can tell if they are wrong - there's not going to be any backlash to an incorrect lynch.

In that light, I've decided to look for people who had suddenly become more aggressive on Day 3 - to me, those are the most likely to be scum. Quite easy to find really: Silanah, Omtose and Shadow were the main people behind the Kaschan lynch.

In the next few posts I will summarize cases on the three of them. Might take a while for me to get them all together, so please be patient. I'll field questions when I'm done/if I see that there's been some response in between cases.

EDIT: Crosspost with Liosan. Seriously, 5 1/2 hours and we decide to post at the same time?

This is coming into the section where ano really makes a good effort to push the game along with three strong cases. You should note again though his emphasis on the coroner finder, I said it was a running theme and it is.

Anomandaris, on Jan 24 2009, 08:07 PM, said:

Meanas, on Jan 24 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

I am not going to be on very much today. Weekends are my free time and as such I have a ton of errands and what not to run. The case on silanah does have some merit but I personally like my case on Galayn lord better. I want to see Tennes post more and I think that it would be a mistake for us to allow him to live very much longer. If he is a killer then he would be getting a free pass, same if he is a necro. The fact that he is such a low poster I think also makes him a target for recruitment. As I don't want someone to get speed lynched and there are double voters out there I am going to hold off voting for a while. Plus I want to see Galayn Lords defense of my case against him.

Before I go, just thought I should point out that I still consider the case on GL to be a good one, and definitely worth pursuing, even if one of my suspects was one of the ones who first called attention to it. I wouldn't be especially displeased with a GL lynch, if it came down to it, but I figure I should put all this other stuff out there.


Off for real this time, hopefully the thread will pick up a little while I'm gone, it's rather empty at the moment. The weekend makes all the difference, I guess.

Both sides of the story are necessary and here ano is saying he wouldn’t mind seeing the GL lynch. His vote remained on shadow though until day ended.

[Liosan]

part 3

Anomandaris, on Jan 25 2009, 02:46 PM, said:

Shadow, on Jan 24 2009, 11:14 PM, said:

@ Annomandaris. Why are you so quick to dismiss the Kaschan case. We had 3 people, with three different view points and 3 different cases. All, I thought, with merit. I think its reasonable to assume Kaschan was a Necro. I believe Kaschan was Necro, it makes me wonder why you are going after the 3 people that were instrumental in taking him down. With no CF, all we have is cases and logic. the further into the game we get with no CF the less solid information we will have to go on. As we were just hit with no CF, we had the most solid information we were going to get. Who would you have voted for? Tennes? We can do that any time and the case is going to be the same. "He doesn't post" Convenient place for a killer to hide at this point. I believe that we need to take down low posters, either day 2 or when we all can't agree on a case.

Quick is not the word I would use. If you look through the cases I have made, I have gone through each person's case on Kaschan point by point and not found any of them to be particularly convincing.

We CANNOT make the assumption that Kaschan was Necro. Without a CF, such certainty will only lead us astray. You seem to be insistent on this point, which makes me all the more suspicious of you.

Who would I have voted for? If you look back, you will see I voted for Galayn Lord. Meanas' case brings up some real contradictions in GL's behaviour around the time of the Fener lynch which look remarkably like a slip up to me. As far as I can tell, that case is a lot more substantial than any of Silanah's, Omtose's or your own case on Kaschan.

Again he goes back to galayn lord being a better lynch than kaschan. It is also worth noting that ano states his cases are built on a point by point basis of kaschan’s train. I find this quite odd to be honest, he states we cannot make the assumption of kaschan being a necro, yet he is making the assumption that he wasn’t a necro and basing his entire play off of that possibility. The lack of cf is again being used as a reasoning behind this logic.

Anomandaris, on Jan 25 2009, 03:08 PM, said:

Omtose, on Jan 25 2009, 11:54 AM, said:

As for thinking about CF - ridiculous point. Not scummy in itself, as you say.
But saying killers have night vision and we are groping about... Scum always have that - the question you should ask yourself is: what does it change for us, and what should we do? I had my personal answer for that - go for the throat, don't give them time. Be ruthless.

Examine the situation:
Firstly, we had a few good traces to go with, traces that would become muddied had we waited, which is what you seem to advocate. The only light source (to stay in your analogy) we as team inno will get, is when a reveal lights a match. Evil will be rapidly trying to snuff that match out. 'When in doubt, attack (which is usually leading to a near fatal dose of day 2 syndrome )' We're in doubt all the time now, as we lack any confirmation of our thoughts. But I feel if we start cowering in a corner, we'll be lead by vocal scum by a ring through our nose in no-time.

The point about the analogy is that whereas with the CF we would have indications as to whether we are on the right track, now we are left with only finder reveals, which will be few and far between, and to be honest I'd prefer to keep to the late game. We have no way of building up a picture of how well the game is progressing any more. You point out that the evils will be trying to lead us by the nose - I see that as already having happened. Recruiting Kessobahn was the obvious choice, so the fact that it wasn't done implies to me that someone felt not having a CF was a better course of action. That means the Necros are alert to the possibilities that have opened up for them now we are blinder than before, and thus likely to try and exploit them. Hence why I've been looking at you three so closely.

Again I have starting to see a trend here, and this could explain much of the way ano is playing and put it in either camp depending on your paranoia. On one hand he makes a compelling point about players leading the game as lynches are not giving us solid info. On the other hand it is also a way of diffusing linkages between players. Generally we would find one scum and look for links from that player, hoping to see a pattern into which others will fall. Usually you will not find more than one or two players linked together as most players play solo. The removal of the cf, more than invalidating lynch trains, is a defensive measure by scum to remove the surety of those links. With the cf it was a natural follow on to make links back from fener, that the cases started on kaschan is being cited as a good reason why this isn’t a good method, but perhaps it wasn’t kaschan who was worried. Given the links on day 2, it was equally likely that anomandaris would have come under suspicion after the fener train, and his continued reference of the cf has me think he is preoccupied by it. On day 3 though, the case against kaschan had built up so much steam that none of us looked back to what fener was doing on day 2.

Galayn Lord, on Jan 25 2009, 04:12 PM, said:

Ok atm I think Im still suspicious of Meanas as a killer or Symp but looking at the lynchess of Fener and Kaschan Ano stood out to me as not wanting to lynch either of them despite the likelyhood that they were necromancers. So I think that ano is likely to be undead, possibly the creature. If you look at the following 2 quotes it appears to me that he is definitely trying to downplay the lynch as not very sensible and make out that the cases are weak.

Anomandaris, on Jan 22 2009, 02:32 PM, said:

Right, well I'm not entirely sure that reveal was wise, but I guess what's done is done. From your evidence, I would be more inclined to draw the conclusion that Fener was recruited last night, as opposed to actually being one of the Necromancers (although that doesn't preclude him from being the Creature...hmm). If possible, I'd prefer to try and target the necromancers themselves as opposed to the undead - cut off the head and we stop the cult from growing, y'know? So I figure we should hold off on lynching Fener until we don't have any other avenues to pursue.

I'll admit that despite all the muck that people have been raking up (admirably large quantities ), there isn't really a strong candidate for a lynch today thus far. However, I'll hold off on voting for Fener for a little while just in case something else appears.

The underlined quote especially seems strange as at that point Fener was a very strong lynch candidate.

Anomandaris, on Jan 23 2009, 07:26 PM, said:

Have to say I really don't see much in either of the cases on Kaschan at all...going after low posters? Not especially scummy in my book. Wanting to wait for Fener to get a chance to put in a defence? I was doing that too...don't see anything wrong with it. Yeah, he was talking about the Korlat case without actually adding much to it...ok, fair enough. But commenting that a case exists isn't exactly a cardinal sin either.

In short, I'm quite concerned about how quickly Kaschan has been picking up votes based on what, as far as I can tell, aren't particularly strong cases.

EDIT: Crosspost with a lot of stuff.

so because he's pinged my radar as a likely undead
vote Anomandaris

Here is galayn lords case on anomandaris. Depending on your paranoia you can read this either of two ways. Distancing is the most obvious as ano was under no pressure so this if looking for a lynch train to move attention on to was a bad choice by baudin. It could have been a genuine attempt at finding an undead and galayn was an inno wrongly accused.

Sadly this is yet another link, and a return vote to the one that ano gave to galayn the day before.

Anomandaris, on Jan 26 2009, 02:36 PM, said:

I could continue to debate each point with Shadow, but I've come to the realisation that jousting in such situations will not help anything. My case rests primarily on the basis that I think the cases on Kaschan were weak and that his lynch does not merit the certainty that Shadow has given it. However, any debate on the matter will undoubtably return to this conflict of opinion, one that probably won't be easily resolved. I have tried to show why I think this by going through each of Silanah's, Omtose's and Shadow's cases in the course of my posts, but Shadow can always respond that he believes the lynch was the right thing to do. So hopefully if you were swayed by my analysis of the various cases, you will see where I'm coming from, but if you feel that the Kaschan lynch was above board and unsuspicious, then I don't have a whole lot to add to convince you.

Right, now that I've got that out of the way, there is one point that I feel is worthy of debate. I hope you don't mind that I've reformatted the conversation so far somewhat - I'm not a huge fan of the red type.

Shadow, on Jan 26 2009, 07:33 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on Jan 25 2009, 06:34 AM, said:

And the whole thing about the Necros not recruiting so we don't get to see Kaschan's CF seems like flawed reasoning to me. What do the necros care if we know that we've managed to hit one of them?

because the less the inno's know, the better...after all, all the Necros have to do is get rid of everyone not on their team...and they all know eachother

Anomandaris, on Jan 25 2009, 06:34 AM, said:

We get a little bit of evidence based on people's reactions to the case, I guess, but surely they'd stand more to gain if Kaschan was inno? Now we're on the wrong track, and have no way to tell. If Kaschan were guilty, it would have been in their interests to keep the CFs in play and be vocal in their criticisms of him, thereby giving them something to point to later if and when suspicion comes back around to them.

I'm sorry, this makes no sense to me. If we have a CF and If he CF's Guilty there are ties to the other Necros!!! Tell me that if we, as inno's, knew Kasch was a necro that GL wouldn't be dead 24 hours ago... there is no way. They knew. They knew that Kasch was on the block the next day. They knew that if we lynched Kach and he CF'd necro that GL would be next in line..... If GL is Necro.. well thats 3 Necro's dead in 3 lynch attempts. This connection was made back before Kess was killed (during the Fener lynch). Tell me Yellow didn't think of this. I consider Yellow a smart player. He would have thought of this.

Having considered this a little more my point of view can be summed up as follows.

Team Necro would have wanted the CFs gone regardless of whether or not Kaschan was next on the chopping block. They have little need of it - they know exactly who is on their team (with the exception of the creature, of course), and they can work out how many kills they have to work with by how many deaths there are after every night. Thus preventing Team Inno from getting a handle on how the game is progressing would seem like a good strategy, irrespective of the state of the game. I therefore don't see why this is evidence in favour of Kaschan being a Necro (though nor is it evidence in his defence, I realise that now).

Any other lines of reasoning, as I see it, are tainted by the prior assumptions that [a]Kaschan was a Necro, or [b]Kaschan was not a Necro. If you think Kaschan was a Necro, then they got rid of the CFs to deny Team Inno some info and certainty about the validity of the lynch. If you think Kaschan was not a Necro then they got rid of the CFs in the hope that people would follow up on the Kaschan case and thus be lead astray, never realising that they were going down the wrong track. Comes back to that point of contention again.

EDIT: Because for some reason the text was in black.

One of the problems I have with voting for anomandaris is this insistence to talk about kaschan and fener. Would the last necro be so cavalier with his association. The lack of cf is an important in this, because it makes only the first name a certainty and each chain after that becomes weaker and weaker with out a result. The problem ano has though, is that like kaschan, his name is linked at the very core, with some dubious logic regarding fener and some close voting with fener on day 2.

This post has been edited by Liosan: 27 January 2009 - 11:22 AM

[Liosan]

part 4

Anomandaris, on Jan 26 2009, 03:02 PM, said:

Right, well we can be reasonably confident that there's at most one executioner on the train thus far, because only people who are on the Kaschan train are on this one, and that one only had one double voter on it. So GL is probably at L-2: neither Thyrllan or Silanah (who are the only Kaschan-lynchers not on the train) were on Serc's day 1 train, and that one had both executioners on it. I'm assuming, of course, that there are only two executioners...

L-2 is kind of high this early in the day, but there is a reasonable case in play and we already have a defence from GL to analyze. Speaking of which, I shall get right on that.

Why are you talking about the double voters? I do not see the logic in specualating about possible roled innos.

Anomandaris, on Jan 26 2009, 03:36 PM, said:

The weekend freeze on the timer is to excuse people from having to post at the weekend if they're busy, and it is my impression that quite a few people have taken advantage of that. I would quite like to hear the impressions of those people on this matter. As you say, some of us have been active all weekend - I am merely pointing out that we have a lot of time left should we need it, and I for one would like to use at least some of it. Not saying we have to wait until the deadline by any means.

Regarding Galayn Lord's defence: while it is true that some of Kessogoth's logic was very woolly, it still seems very rash to have voted for the Medium straight away. As a consequence of the reveal, we were going to have to lynch Kessobahn anyway, given that we could not be sure of his loyalty after the night. As I have said in some of my other posts, I think the lack of CF is a definite advantage to the scum, so trying to turn the lynch around seems like it could be scummy.

I agree with his general sentiment about the Necromancers listing themselves, but that doesn't go any way to explaining the fact that he seems to be stating the obvious in an attempt to show that he's back in confirmity with the rest of the herd. The fact is, his reaction to Kessobahn's reveal separated him from the pack, but it wasn't so much that as his eagerness to return to it that makes me suspicious.

In summary: not convinced by the defence.

Again a good bit of distancing, but you had a vote on galayn the day before when no chance of lynching him existed, so why are you voting for shadow when galayn is possibly up for the chop? There is a lot about ano than is open to interpretation, and a cf would have cleared it up.

Anomandaris, on Jan 26 2009, 03:44 PM, said:

An addendum - the more time we had with Kessobahn alive, the more time we had to mine him for information. As it happens, I'm not so sure that the information we got was particularly trustworthy, but that's another matter entirely. Getting rid of Kessobahn as early as possible seems like it would be a good tactic for the scum to employ.

You are so focused on kessobahn, even two days after he was night killed you bring him up. I think everyone knows how important the cf was, morgoths decision was reckless and foolish but discussing him even now, seems pointless.

Anomandaris, on Jan 26 2009, 05:25 PM, said:

Very nice case by Liosan, there. I am rather disconcerted that there was so much linking Fener and myself together, as there was nothing intentional about that at all. The only real defence I can fall back on is that it was in fact a coincidence that we kept voting the same way, but I'm fairly sure that's not going to sway many of you, so I'll try for a little more in the hope that I can diffuse the situation early and keep us on track for the actual scum.

It seems odd to me that a team would take such a risk as to associate themselves together as early as Day 2 - if anything, the scum should still be distancing from each other at that point, yes? Were I indeed scum, such a strategy would seem reckless and unnecessary at that point in the game (Sorry if that's a little WIFOM-y, but that's all I've got I'm afraid).

Also, regarding the fact that I followed Fener onto Silanah - it was a tossup between Tennes, Silanah and GL at that point, and I chose Silanah because I noted that he had already made a post about reading up. I have many a time been frustrated by players who put down their "I'm here, catching up!" marker, and then never actually say anything else of substance, I was hoping that this time Silanah would actually join the party and start playing for real. The vote achieved its intended purpose so I removed it.

Regarding my 'reluctance to vote for Fener even after the reveal', I guess I mistyped there - I was trying to say that none of the other cases that day had been particularly strong. The evidence that Kessobahn presented suggested to me that Fener was a recruit to the undead team as opposed to being a Necromancer to start, so I was prepared to see if that reveal ushered forward any more information that might lead to the original Necromancers. Believe me I would have been perfectly willing to hammer if need be.

I will stand by my assessment that removing the CF from the game was what Team Necro would have done anyway, and that you can pretty much make it fit any case you desire, which reduces its usefulness as evidence to pretty much nil. In any case, would it really have been logical to go Fener -> Kaschan -> Ano if we'd had the CFs? Ask yourself, if I hadn't been retroactively defending Kaschan, would my name have popped up in connection to the two of them at all? I'm inclined to think not - I spent the first few days thinking that were I indeed scum then I would have been hiding perfectly, because noone had called any attention to me at all (from memory, I think one person mentioned me as being a little suspect at one point, but that was about it). Would it be worth me breaking my cover on something that had already happened and couldn't be changed? Not really, no. I spoke up after the Kaschan lynch because I honestly believed that we had made a mistake and that we were being led astray...a more reasonable explanation than that I was doing it out of some sense of misguided loyalty to a dead teammate, surely.

Finally, I dislike the way HP brought up me trying to delay trains. I don't see what is scummy about that at all - I still voted for Serc, and would still have voted for Fener should it have been necessary. I just happen to feel that every player deserves a chance to give a defence, no matter how strong the case. Helps me pretend that justice has been served .

And now I'm off to do some work. Might be back after dinner - we shall see.

In finale, I agree with you about the case, the evidence is there though, and by your own actions you are associated with the players whom many of us have felt to be scum. More so you actively defend them and make attempts at halting the lynches of said players with votes against the tide. None of these things on their own should be enough to lynch a person, but your cases are built on assumptions contrary to everyone else and you complain about them not looking at things from a different view point when you yourself seem sure that we are wrong.

I do feel there is something about you ano.

vote anomandaris

[Liosan]

That took forever!!!!

[Galain]

Would applause be inappropriate here?

[Omtose]

Liosan, on Jan 27 2009, 12:32 PM, said:

That took forever!!!!

But was well worth the effort.

[Mockra]

morning guys

Liosan, as much as I applaud your efforts, once again, if we suspect the creature's dead, shouldn't it be more important to get rid of the people that can actually kill?
necros are useless, if there are no NKs
if we take that GL was the creature (and some of his actions SCREAM symp to me), then the only killer left is the psycho. if we get rid of him, then the cult is helpless, b/c it can't grow anymore.

since I believe that getting rid of the psycho is more important at this point, and since he has not given me a good defence yet

vote Hood's Path

[Galain]

vote Anomandaris

Something has been nagging at me about Ano for some time, and I think Liosan's massive case provides some foundation for my suspicions. I do worry slightly that I'm trying to look for something scummy on Ano but I think there is enough evidence holistically to suggest that there is something untoward going on with him.

[Path-Shaper]

It is day 5 - 31 hours left

13 players still playing, 7 votes to lynch, 7 votes for night

3 vote Anomandaris (Omtose, Liosan, Galain)
1 vote Hood's Path (Mockra)


9 have not voted: Anomandaris, D'riss, Hood's Path, Meanas, Rashan, Ruse, Shadow, Silanah, Thyrllan.

[Mockra]

all right off to my lab, will try to check there, if not, back in about 2 hours.

can someone else please at least comment on the HP case? I feel as if i'm being pointedly ignored, so that then people like Rashan can moan that they don't remember me posting "anything useful"

[Liosan]

Mockra, i see where you are coming from, but for me if we have a chance to remove the last necro its vital we take it. Your case on HP has merit, the slip you highlight does seem to imply some collusion between emur and hp, but Hp has gave a defence regarding that post and if you are wrong the the killer and my main suspect for the second necro are still around going into night. i think for me the crux is that a night occurred were no one died and we are having to bank on the fact that a possible witch bp saved us from a double recruit. If the witch did not use her bp, there are possibly three undead still in play (that assumes gl was the creature).

If you can provide additional evidence beyond that single post it might sway me, but for now i will put HP in my suspects list for psychos and hope a guard or a finder targets him during the night.

[Mockra]

what defence?
he said "you're taking this out of context" and repeated the very lie i've accused him of making up as his reason.

if we believe that Ano is necro, he['s still useless as soon as all the killer roles are out of the picture. This isn't a normal cult, they can't grow forever. eliminate the NKs and they become virtually harmless because their numbers are fixed.

it'd the same situation we have now, but we avoid another NK

[Omtose]

Mockra, on Jan 27 2009, 01:18 PM, said:

morning guys

Liosan, as much as I applaud your efforts, once again, if we suspect the creature's dead, shouldn't it be more important to get rid of the people that can actually kill?
necros are useless, if there are no NKs
if we take that GL was the creature (and some of his actions SCREAM symp to me), then the only killer left is the psycho. if we get rid of him, then the cult is helpless, b/c it can't grow anymore.

since I believe that getting rid of the psycho is more important at this point, and since he has not given me a good defence yet

vote Hood's Path

I'll go study your case in some detail somewhere in the next hour - but have a question to ask:
1) what makes you think there's only 1 more psycho left alive (for a total of 2, plus symps), when we assume 2 recruiters and 1 creature for the cult? Why not 3 killers and a symp, for example?

2) the reason why one could want to finish the cult completely is that a single necro without a creature CAN still recruit, as far as I am aware... he just has to second guess the psycho(s) instead of second guess his creature/ pick up its codes. The cult will thus not be down until it is completely exterminated.

[Liosan]

Mockra, on Jan 27 2009, 01:01 PM, said:

what defence?
he said "you're taking this out of context" and repeated the very lie i've accused him of making up as his reason.

if we believe that Ano is necro, he['s still useless as soon as all the killer roles are out of the picture. This isn't a normal cult, they can't grow forever. eliminate the NKs and they become virtually harmless because their numbers are fixed.

it'd the same situation we have now, but we avoid another NK

you are that firm in your belief that HP is a killer? What makes you so sure there arent three killers? Given the numbers it could easily be three killers to one symp. Can you post his defence, because i used the word to mean a response defending himself, i did not imply it was in any way valid. As long as there are any possibilities of a night kill there could be a cult. We are expecting two night kills every night with random ones thrown in as vigs. So far we have had a three nights below expectations. We can be sure fener was recruited night one as he came back undead, but the night with no nk's and last night with one we are risking a lot to assume that we have taken out the creature and a wicth bp protected us. No matter how confident we are, without a cf this is still guess work and supposition.

Potentially out of 13 players we have 4 or more necros. If we lynch hp and he isnt the killer, or worse still that there are more than one left, we risk the cult growing larger. Now from what path-shaper said, i understand it to mean that once the necromancers are dead the recruits will die as well. If we lynch anomandaris and he is the last necromancer his recruits will fall over and our lack of cf wont have made a difference because the cult are gone. If we lynch hp today, we are just going to have to turn around and lynch anomandaris tomorrow based on the case today.

edit - cross post!

This post has been edited by Liosan: 27 January 2009 - 01:11 PM