Since he says he might check in here every now and then...figured I'd clear this up once and for all.
Euol said:
I also mentioned Moiraine's fate last year as being a big question I had. She's always been a favorite of mine, and each time I read through the series, I'm left wondering about her. (Well, not anymore, since I've read the notes. But you know what I mean.)
I've been surprised to discover that a lot of readers take her survival for granted, but I've never done so. The letter gives some good clues that she might still be around, but it could also be some kind of trap by the Aelfinn and Eelfinn. The answers and gifts they give are truthful, yet there's often a twisted logic to them as well, it seems.
We have known that Moiraine is coming back since even before her letter was revealed in Knife of Dreams. It's very much a breadcrumb trail of evidence, but this is what RJ was good at, and why we love him.
First, we knew that apparently Min had a viewing that Moiraine and Thom would marry. Moiraine knew something about Thom's future, before she went through the Aelfinn doorway in Tear:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Shadow Rising
CHAPTER: 17 - Deceptions
"A quiet life would kill you, I think." Sounding distinctly amused, she busied herself rearranging the folds of her skirt with small, slender hands. He had the impression she was hiding a smile. "Tanchico will not, however. I guarantee that, and by the First Oath, you know it for truth."
He frowned at her despite his best efforts to keep his face straight. She had said it, and she could not lie, yet how could she know? He was sure she could not Foretell; he was certain he had heard her disavow the Talent. But she had said it. Burn the woman!
We don't know for sure how she knew that, but we do have other clues:
RJ said:
TITLE - A Crown of Swords
CHAPTER: 35 - Into the Woods
A tiny stab of guilt made her shift her seat on the coverlet. She had not really lied when [Rand] asked what viewings she had kept back. Not really. What good to tell him he would almost certainly fail without a woman who was dead and gone? He became bleak too easily as it was. She had to keep his spirits up, make him remember to laugh...
...Min sighed regretfully, but it was not as if she had really expected Moiraine to turn up alive. Moiraine was the only viewing of hers that had ever failed. But Caraline Damodred herself, one of the leaders of the rebellion against Rand here in Cairhien, and a claimant to the Sun Throne... He really was pulling all the threads of the Pattern around him, to have her appear.
Obviously, Min had viewings about Moiraine. Even though these two paragraphs are slightly separated in the chapter, they almost certainly go together, so Rand will almost certainly fail without her. That was a clue that she would come back.
But, by far, the strongest clue that she would come back were the breadcrumbs that hinted Moiraine and Thom were fated to marry. It's very clear, and
one of the most popular factions of all time at Theoryland because of that clarity. Here are some quotes along that breadcrumb trail:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Eye of the World
CHAPTER: 45 - What Follows in Shienar
Moiraine studied them as she ate. Finally she put her plate aside and patted her lips with a napkin. "I can tell you one cheerful thing. I do not think Thom Merrilin is dead."
Rand looked at her sharply. "But ... the Fade ..."
"Mat told me what happened in Whitebridge, " the Aes Sedai said. "People there mentioned a gleeman, but they said nothing of him dying. They would have, I think, if a gleeman had been killed. Whitebridge is not so big as for a gleeman to be a small thing. And Thom is a part of the Pattern that weaves itself around you three. Too important a part, I believe, to be cut off yet."
Too important? Rand thought. How could Moiraine know...? "Min? She saw something about Thom?"
"She saw a great deal, " Moiraine said wryly. "About all of you. I wish I could understand half of what she saw, but even she does not. Old barriers fail. But whether what Min does is old or new, she sees true. Your fates are bound together. Thom Merrilin's, too."
Even as early as The Eye of the World, RJ lets us know that Moiraine knows something about Thom's future, and that this knowledge most likely came from Min. Also, Thom's attraction to Moiraine is dribbled out early on:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Great Hunt
CHAPTER: 25 - Cairhien
Rand could not help laughing. "I left Whitebridge sure you were dead. Moiraine said you were still alive, but I ... Light, Thom, it's good to see you again! I should have gone back to help you."
"Bigger fool if you had, boy. That Fade" – he looked around; there was no one close enough to hear, but he lowered his voice anyway – "had no interest in me. It left me a little present of a stiff leg and ran off after you and Mat. All you could have done was die." He paused, looking thoughtful. "Moiraine said I was still alive, did she? Is she with you, then?"
Rand shook his head. To his surprise, Thom seemed disappointed.
"Too bad, in a way. She's a fine woman, even if she is ..." He left it unsaid. "So it was Mat or Perrin she was after. I won't ask which. They were good boys, and I don't want to know." Rand shifted uneasily, and gave a start when Thom fixed him with a bony finger. "What I do want to know is, do you still have my harp and flute? I want them back, boy. What I have now are not fit for a pig to play."
He mistrusts Aes Sedai at this point, and does not fully come to appreciate Moiraine until she is gone, but the attraction is there:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Dragon Reborn
CHAPTER: 31 - The Woman of Tanchico
"Rand said you were alive, " he told Thom when Mada and Saal were out of hearing. "Moiraine always said she thought you were. But I heard you were in Cairhien, and meaning to go on to Tear."
"Rand is still well, then?" Thom's eyes sharpened to almost the keenness Mat remembered. "I am not sure I expected that. Moiraine is still with him, is she? A fine-looking woman. A fine woman, if she were not Aes Sedai. Meddle with that sort, and you get more than your fingers burned."
"Why wouldn't you expect Rand to be all right?" Mat asked carefully. "Do you know of something that could harm him?"
"Know? I don't know anything, boy. I suspect more than is healthy for me, but I know nothing."
Mat abandoned that line of talk. No use firming his suspicions. No use letting him know I know more than's healthy myself.
Then comes perhaps the most telling of all the early clues:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Shadow Rising
CHAPTER: 6 - Doorways
"She got it wrong, " Egwene said half to herself, a delighted grin blooming on her face. "Have you ever been in love, Moiraine?"
What a startling question. Elayne could not imagine the Aes Sedai in love. Moiraine was Blue Ajah, and it was said Blue sisters gave all their passions to causes.
The slender woman was not at all taken aback. For a long moment she looked levelly at the pair of them, each with an arm around the other. Finally she said, "I could wager I know the face of the man I will marry better than either of you knows that of your future husband."
Egwene gaped in surprise.
"Who?" Elayne gasped.
The Aes Sedai appeared regretful of having spoken. "Perhaps I only meant we share an ignorance. Do not read too much into a few words." She looked at Nynaeve consideringly. "Should I ever choose a man – should, I say – it will not be Lan. That much I will say."
Moiraine let slip that she knew who she would marry. And though she tried to cover it up, it was quite obvious that she was regretful of allowing herself to be baited by Egwene.
The tension of love between Moiraine and Thom grows in the chapter that I quoted from earlier (long quote, but a bunch of good stuff in it):
RJ said:
TITLE - The Shadow Rising
CHAPTER: 17 - Deceptions
Pushing open the door to his room, he stopped in his tracks. Moiraine straightened as if she had a perfect right to be going through the papers scattered on his table and calmly arranged her skirts as she sat on the stool. Now there was a beautiful woman, with every grace a man could want, including laughing at his quips. Fool! Old fool! She's Aes Sedai, and you're too tired to think straight.
"A good morning to you, Moiraine Sedai, " he said, hanging his cloak on a peg. He avoided looking at his writing case, still sitting under the table where he had left it. No point in letting her know it was important. Probably no point in checking after she went, for that matter; she could have channeled the lock open and closed again, and he would never be able to tell. Weary as he was, he could not even remember whether he had left anything incriminating in the case. Or anywhere else, for that matter. Everything he could see in the room was right where it belonged. He did not think he could have been foolish enough to leave anything out. Doors in the servants' quarters had no locks or latches. "I would offer you a refreshing drink, but I fear I have nothing but water."
"I am not thirsty, " she said in a pleasant, melodious voice. She leaned forward, and the room was small enough for her to place a hand on his right knee. A chill tingle rippled through him. "I wish a good Healer had been near when this happened. It is too late now, I regret."
"A dozen Healers would not have been enough, " he told her. "A Halfman did it."
"I know."
What else does she know? he wondered. Turning to pull his lone chair out from behind the table, he bit back an oath. He felt as if he had had a good night's sleep, and the pain was gone from his knee. His limp remained, but the joint was more limber than it had been since he was injured. The woman didn't even ask if I wanted it. Burn me, what is she after? He refused to flex the leg. If she would not ask, he would not acknowledge her gift.
"An interesting day, yesterday, " she said as he sat down.
"I'd not call Trollocs and Halfmen interesting, " he said dryly.
"I did not mean them. Earlier. The High Lord Carleon dead in a hunting accident. His good friend Tedosian apparently mistook him for a boar. Or perhaps a deer."
"I hadn't heard." He kept his voice calm. Even if she had found the note, she could not have traced it to him. Carleon himself would have thought it by his own hand. He did not think she could have, but he reminded himself again that she was Aes Sedai. As if he needed any reminding, with that smooth pretty face across from him, those serene dark eyes watching him full of all his secrets. "The servants' quarters are full of gossip, but I seldom listen."
"Do you not?" she murmured mildly. "Then you will not have heard that Tedosian fell ill not an hour after returning to the Stone, directly after his wife gave him a goblet of wine to wash away the dust of the hunt. It is said he wept when he learned that she means to tend him herself, and feed him with her own hands. No doubt tears of joy at her love. I hear she has vowed not to leave his side until he can rise again. Or until he dies."
She knew. How, he could not say, but she knew. But why was she revealing it to him? "A tragedy, " he said, matching her bland tone. "Rand will need all the loyal High Lords he can find, I suppose."
"Carleon and Tedosian were hardly loyal. Even to each other, it seems. They led the faction that want to kill Rand and try to forget he ever lived."
"Do you say so? I pay little attention to such things. The works of the mighty are not for a simple gleeman."
Her smile was just short of laughter, but she spoke as if reading from a page. "Thomdril Merrilin. Called the Gray Fox, once, by some who knew him, or knew of him. Court-bard at the Royal Palace of Andor in Caemlyn. Morgase's lover for a time, after Taringail died. Fortunate for Morgase, Taringail's death. I do not suppose she ever learned he meant her to die and himself to be Andor's first king. But we were speaking of Thom Merrilin, a man who, it was said, could play the Game of Houses in his sleep. It is a shame that such a man calls himself a simple gleeman. But such arrogance to keep the same name."
Thom masked his shock with an effort. How much did she know? Too much if she knew not another word. But she was not the only one with knowledge. "Speaking of names, " he said levelly, "it is remarkable how much can be puzzled out from a name. Moiraine Damodred. The Lady Moiraine of House Damodred, in Cairhien. Taringail's youngest half-sister. King Laman's niece. And Aes Sedai, let us not forget. An Aes Sedai aiding the Dragon Reborn since before she could have known that he was more than just another poor fool who could channel. An Aes Sedai with connections high in the White Tower, I would say, else she'd not risk what she has. Someone in the Hall of the Tower? More than one, I'd say; it would have to be. News of that would shake the world. But why should there be trouble? Perhaps it's best to leave an old gleeman tucked away in his hole in the servants' quarters. Just an old gleeman playing his harp and telling his tales. Tales that harm no one."
If he had managed to stagger her even a fraction, she did not show it. "Speculation without facts is always dangerous, " she said calmly. "I do not use my House name, by choice. House Damodred had a deservedly unpleasant reputation before Laman cut down Avendoraldera and lost the throne and his life for it. Since the Aiel War, it has grown worse, also deservedly."
Would nothing shake the woman? "What do you want of me?" he demanded irritably.
She did not as much as blink. "Elayne and Nynaeve take ship for Tanchico today. A dangerous city, Tanchico. Your knowledge and skills might keep them alive."
So that was it. She wanted to separate him from Rand, leave the boy naked to her manipulations. "As you say, Tanchico is dangerous now, but then it always was. I wish the young women well, yet I've no wish to stick my head into a vipers' nest. I am too old for that sort of thing. I have been thinking of taking up farming. A quiet life. Safe."
"A quiet life would kill you, I think." Sounding distinctly amused, she busied herself rearranging the folds of her skirt with small, slender hands. He had the impression she was hiding a smile. "Tanchico will not, however. I guarantee that, and by the First Oath, you know it for truth."
He frowned at her despite his best efforts to keep his face straight. She had said it, and she could not lie, yet how could she know? He was sure she could not Foretell; he was certain he had heard her disavow the Talent. But she had said it. Burn the woman! "Why should I go to Tanchico?" She could do without titles.
"To protect Elayne? Morgase's daughter?"
"I have not seen Morgase in fifteen years, Elayne was an infant when I left Caemlyn."
She hesitated, but when she spoke her voice was unrelentingly firm. "And your reason for leaving Andor? A nephew named Owyn, I believe. One of those poor fools you spoke of who can channel. The Red sisters were supposed to bring him to Tar Valon, as any such man is, but instead they gentled him on the spot and abandoned him to the... mercies of his neighbors."
Thom knocked his chair over standing up, then had to hold on to the table because his knees were shaking. Owyn had not lived long after being gentled, driven from his home by supposed friends who could not bear to let even a man who could no longer channel live among them. Nothing Thom did could stop Owyn not wanting to live, or stop his young wife from following him to the grave inside the month.
"Why... ?" He cleared his throat roughly, tried to make his voice less husky. "Why are you telling me this?"
There was sympathy on Moiraine's face. And could it be regret? Surely not. Not from an Aes Sedai. The sympathy had to be false as well. "I would not have done, had you been willing to go simply to help Elayne and Nynaeve."
"Why, burn you! Why?"
"If you go with Elayne and Nynaeve, I will tell you the names of those Red sisters when I see you next, as well as the name of the one who gave them their orders. They did not act on their own. And I will see you again. You will survive Tarabon."
He drew an uneven breath. "What good will their names do me?" he asked in a flat voice. "Aes Sedai names, wrapped in all the power of the White Tower."
"A skilled and dangerous player of the Game of Houses might find a use for them, " she replied quietly. "They should not have done what they did. They should not have been excused for it."
"Will you leave me, please?"
"I will teach you that not all Aes Sedai are like those Reds, Thom. You must learn that."
"Please?"
He stood leaning on the table until she was gone, unwilling to let her see him sink awkwardly to his knees, see the tears trickling down his weathered face. Oh, Light, Owyn. He had buried it all as deeply as he could. I couldn't get there in time. I was too busy. Too busy with the bloody Game of Houses. He scrubbed at his face testily. Moiraine could play the Game with the best. Wrenching him around this way, tugging every string he had thought perfectly hidden. Owyn, Elayne. Morgase's daughter. Only fondness remained for Morgase, perhaps a little more than that, but it was hard to walk away from a child you had bounced on your knee. That girl in Tanchico? That city would eat her alive even without a war. It must be a pit of rabid wolves, now. And Moiraine will give me the names. All he had to do was leave Rand in Aes Sedai hands. Just as he had left Owyn. She had him like a snake in a cleft stick, damned however he writhed. Burn the woman!
Thom again shows his attraction to Moiraine, and Moiraine begins to show her affection for Thom. All of a sudden, her slip to Egwene from the earlier chapter is clear. Min had a viewing that Thom and Moiraine would marry. She likely had the viewing in Baerlon, where she saw Thom and Moiraine together as they were leaving the Two Rivers.
Then, in the next book, we got the first clue that Thom and Mat would save Moiraine. By this time, we knew that Mat had more experience with the 'Finns than anyone else, so it made perfect sense:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Fires of Heaven
CHAPTER: 15 - What Can Be Learned In Dreams
"You were eavesdropping on Rand?" Egwene settled herself beside the other woman. It was as cold in the tent as it was outside. She channeled flames atop the ashes in the firepit and tied the flow. "You said you would not do it again."
"I said that since the Wise Ones could watch his dreams, we should allow him some privacy. They have not asked again since he shut them out, and I have not offered. Remember that they have their own goals, which may not be those of the Tower."
As quickly as that, they had come to it. Egwene was still not sure how to tell what she knew without betraying herself to the Wise Ones, but perhaps the only method was to just tell it and then feel her way. "Elaida is Amyrlin, Moiraine. I do not know what has happened to Siuan."
"How do you know?" Moiraine said quietly. "Did you learn something dreamwalking? Or has your Talent as a Dreamer finally manifested itself?"
That was her way out. Some of the Aes Sedai in the Tower thought that she might be a Dreamer, a woman whose dreams foretold the future. She did have dreams that she knew were significant, but learning to interpret them was another matter. The Wise Ones said the knowledge had to come from within, and none of the Aes Sedai had been any more help. Rand sitting down in a chair, and somehow she knew that the chair's owner would be murderously angry at having her chair taken; that the owner was a woman was as much as she could pick out of that, and not a thing more. Sometimes the dreams were complex. Perrin, lounging with Faile on his lap, kissing her while she played with the short-cut beard that he wore in the dream. Behind them two banners waved, a red wolf's head and a crimson eagle. A man in a bright yellow coat stood near to Perrin's shoulder, a sword strapped to his back; in some way she knew that he was a Tinker, though no Tinker would even touch a sword. And every bit of it except the beard seemed important; The banners, Faile kissing Perrin, even the Tinker. Every time he moved closer to Perrin it was as if a chill of doom shot through everything. Another dream. Mat throwing dice with blood streaming down his face, the wide brim of his hat pulled low so she could not see his wound, while Thom Merrilin put his hand into a fire to draw out the small blue stone that now dangled on Moiraine's forehead. Or a dream of a storm, great dark clouds rolling without wind or rain while forked lightning bolts, every one identical, rent the earth. She had the dreams, but as a Dreamer she was a failure so far.
"I saw an arrest warrant for you, Moiraine, signed by Elaida as Amyrlin. And it was no ordinary dream." All true. Just not all of the truth. She was suddenly glad that Nynaeve was not there. I'd be the one staring at a cup, if she was.
This clue was given just before Moiraine "died". In the next book, after she was gone, the clues continue as Mat gives Thom Moiraine's letter:
RJ said:
TITLE - Lord of Chaos
CHAPTER: 40 - Unexpected Laughter
"You have to help me talk some sense into them, " Mat said around his pipestem. "Thom, are you listening?"
They were seated on upended kegs in the scant shade of a two-story house, smoking their pipes, and the lanky old gleeman seemed more interested in staring at the letter Rand had sent on to him. Now he stuffed it into his coat pocket with the tree-and-crown seal yet unbroken. The buzz of voices and squeak of axles from the street at the end of the alley seemed distant. Sweat dripped from both their faces. At least one thing was taken care of for the moment. Mat had come out of the Little Tower to find that a group of Aes Sedai had hauled Aviendha away somewhere; she would not be sticking a knife in anybody any time soon.
Thom took his pipe from his mouth. It was a long-stemmed thing, carved all over with oak leaves and acorns. "I once tried to rescue a woman, Mat. Laritha was a rose in bud, and married to a glowering brute of a bootmaker in a village where I broke my journey for a few days. A brute. He shouted at her if dinner wasn't ready when he wanted to sit down, and took a switch to her if he saw her say more than two words to another man."
"Thom, what in the Pit of Doom does this have to do with making those fool women see sense?"
"Just listen, boy. How he treated her was common knowledge in the village, but Laritha told me herself, all the while moaning over how she wished someone would rescue her. I had gold in my purse and a fine coach, a driver and a manservant. I was young and good-looking." Thom knuckled his white mustaches and sighed; it was hard to believe that leathery face had ever been good-looking. Mat blinked. A coach? When had a gleeman ever had a coach? "Mat, the woman's plight wrung my heart. And I won't deny her face tugged at it, too. As I said, I was young; I thought I was in love, a hero out of the stories. So one day, sitting beneath a flowering apple tree – well away from the bootmaker's house – I offered to take her away. I'd give her a maid and a house of her own, and court her with songs and verse. When she finally understood, she kicked me in the knee so hard I limped for a month, and hit me with the bench besides."
"They all seem to like kicking, " Mat muttered, shifting his weight on the keg. "I suppose she didn't believe you, and who can blame her?"
"Oh, she believed. And was outraged that I thought she would ever leave her beloved husband. Her word; beloved. She ran back to the man as fast as her feet would go, and I had the choice of killing him or leaping into my coach. I had to leave behind almost every stitch I owned. I expect she's still living with him much as before. Holding the purse strings tight in her fist and cracking his head open with whatever lies to hand every time he stops into the inn for an ale. As she always had, so I learned later from a few discreet inquiries." He stuck the pipe back between his teeth as if he had made a point.
Mat scratched his head. "I don't see what that has to do with this."
"Just that you shouldn't think you know the whole story when you've heard part. For instance, do you know Elayne and Nynaeve will be leaving for Ebou Dar in a day or so? Juilin and I are to go along."
"Ebou...!" Mat barely caught his pipe before it fell into the dead weeds that carpeted the alley. Nalesean had told some stories about a visit to Ebou Dar, and even counting in the way he exaggerated when it came to women he had known and fights he had been in, the place sounded rough. So they thought they could slip Elayne away from him, did they? "Thom, you have to help me – "
"What?" Thom broke in. "Steal them away from the bootmaker?" He blew up a streamer of blue smoke. "I won't do that, boy. You still don't know the whole story. How do you feel about Egwene and Nynaeve? On second thought, make that just Egwene."
Mat frowned, wondering whether the man thought he could fuddle everything up by going around in circles long enough. "I like Egwene. I... Burn me, Thom, she's Egwene; that's saying enough right there. That's why I am trying to save her fool neck for her."
"Save her from her bootmaker, you mean, " Thom murmured, but Mat went right on.
"Her neck and Elayne's as well; even Nynaeve's, if I can stop from throttling her myself. Light! I only want to help them. Besides, Rand will break my neck if I let anything happen to Elayne."
"Have you ever thought of helping them do what they want instead of what you want? If I did what I wanted, I'd have Elayne on a horse and riding to Andor. She needs to do other things – needs to, I think – so I trot around after her, sweating day and night that somebody will manage to kill her before I can prevent it. She will go to Caemlyn when she's ready." He sucked at his pipe complacently, but there was a slight edge to his voice at the end, as if he did not like his words even as much as he pretended.
"It seems to me they want to hand their heads to Elaida." So Thom would have that silly wench on a horse, would he? A gleeman hauling the Daughter-Heir off to be crowned! He did have a grand sense of himself, Thom did.
"You aren't a fool, Mat, " Thom said quietly. "You know better. Egwene... It's hard to think of that child as Amyrlin... " Mat grunted sourly in agreement; Thom paid him no mind. "... yet I believe she has the backbone for it. It's too early to say whether a few things are just happenstance, but I'm beginning to believe she may have the brains as well. The question is, is she tough enough? If she lacks that, they will eat her alive – backbone, brains and all."
"Who will? Elaida?"
"Oh, her. If she has the chance; that one lacks nothing for toughness. But the Aes Sedai right here hardly think of Egwene as Aes Sedai; Amyrlin maybe, but not Aes Sedai, hard as that is to believe." Thom shook his head. "I don't understand, but it's true. The same for Elayne and Nynaeve. They try to keep it among themselves, but even Aes Sedai don't hide as much as they think, if you watch close and keep your wits about you." He pulled out that letter again, just turning it over in his hands without looking at it. "Egwene is walking the edge of a precipice, Mat, and three factions right here in Salidar – three that I'm sure of – might push her over if she makes one wrong step. Elayne will follow if that happens, and Nynaeve. Or maybe they'll push them over first to pull her down."
"Right here in Salidar, " Mat said, flat as a planed board. Thom nodded calmly; and Mat could not stop his voice from rising. "And you want me to leave them here?"
"I want you to stop thinking you're going to make them do anything. They've decided what they are going to do, and you can't change it. But maybe – just maybe – you can help me keep them alive."
Mat jumped to his feet. In his head was an image of a woman with a knife stuck between her breasts; not one of the borrowed memories. He kicked the keg he had been sitting on, sending it rolling along the alley. Help a gleeman keep them alive? A faint memory stirred, something about Basel Gill, an innkeeper in Caemlyn, saying something about Thom, but it was like mist, gone as soon as he tried to hold it. "Who's the letter from, Thom? Another woman you rescued? Or did you leave her where she could get her head cut off?"
"I left her, " Thom said softly. Rising, he walked away without another word.
Thom is in love with Moiraine. He has never trusted Aes Sedai because of what they did to Owyn. He did not want to leave Rand naked to Moiraine's manipulations in Tear, despite liking her uncommonly for an Aes Sedai. But now, Moiraine has given her life in order to save Rand's. His guilt is understandable - he left her to die, and he sold her short when she was alive because of the Aes Sedai who had left Owyn to die.
In the next book is the quote from Min's point of view that I provided earlier - but by that point, even Min's quote was confirmation of what we already knew. Moiraine was coming back.
And then, at long last after years of clues, we got the letter in Knife of Dreams, and every last shred of doubt remaining that the very, VERY few naysayers clung to, was obliterated:
RJ said:
TITLE - Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: 10 - A Village in Shiota
My dearest Thom,
There are many words I would like to write to you, words from my heart, but I have put this off because I knew that I must, and now there is little time. There are many things I cannot tell you lest I bring disaster, but what I can, I will. Heed carefully what I say. In a short while I will go down to the docks, and there I will confront Lanfear. How can I know that? That secret belongs to others. Suffice it that I know, and let that foreknowledge stand as proof for the rest of what I say.
When you receive this, you will be told that I am dead. All will believe that. I am not dead, and it may be that I shall live to my appointed years. It also may be that you and Mat Cauthon and another, a man I do not know, will try to rescue me. May, I say because it may be that you will not or cannot, or because Mat may refuse. He does not hold me in the affection you seem to, and he has his reasons which he no doubt thinks are good. If you try, it must be only you and Mat and one other. More will mean death for all. Fewer will mean death for all. Even if you come only with Mat and one other, death also may come. I have seen you try and die, one or two or all three. I have seen myself die in the attempt. I have seen all of us live and die as captives. Should you decide to make the attempt anyway, young Mat knows the way to find me, yet you must not show him this letter until he asks about it. That is of the utmost importance. He must know nothing that is in this letter until he asks. Events must play out in certain ways, whatever the costs.
If you see Lan again, tell him that all of this is for the best. His destiny follows a different path from mine. I wish him all happiness with Nynaeve.
A final point. Remember what you know about the game of Snakes and Foxes. Remember, and heed.
It is time, and I must do what must be done.
May the Light illumine you and give you joy, my dearest Thom, whether or not we ever see one another again.
Moiraine
...
"Are you any relation to Jain?" Noal raised his hands in a placating gesture. "Peace, man. I believe you. It's just, that tops anything I ever did. Anything Jain ever did, too. Would you mind if I made the third? I can be handy in tight spots, you know."
"Burn me, did everything I said pass in one ear and out the other? They'll know I'm coming. They may already know everything!''
"And it doesn't matter, " Thom put in, "not to me. I'll go by myself, if necessary. But if I read this correctly, " he began folding the letter up, almost tenderly, "the only hope of success is if you are one of the three." He sat there on the cot, silent now, looking Mat in the eye.
Mat wanted to look away, and could not. Bloody Aes Sedai! The woman almost certainly was dead, and yet she still tried coercing him into being a hero. Well, heroes got patted on the head and pushed out of the way until the next time a hero was needed, if they survived being a hero in the first place. Very often heroes did not. He had never really trusted Moiraine, or liked her either. Only fools trusted Aes Sedai. But then, if not for her, he would be back in the Two Rivers mucking out the barn and tending his da's cows. Or he would be dead. And there old Thom sat, saying nothing, just staring at him. That was the rub. He liked Thom. Oh, blood and bloody ashes.
"Burn me for a fool, " he muttered. "I'll go."
Thunder crashed deafeningly right atop a flash of lightning so bright it shone through the tent canvas. When the rumbling booms faded, there was dead silence in his head. The last set of dice had stopped. He could have wept.
And also this:
RJ said:
TITLE - Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: 20 - The Golden Crane
"Your viewings are never wrong," he broke in. "What you see always happens. You've tried to change things, and it never worked. You told me so yourself, Min. What makes you think this time can be different?"
"Because it has to be different." she told him fiercely. She leaned toward him as though ready to launch herself at him. "Because I want it to be different. Because it will be different. Anyway, I don't know about everything I've seen. People move on. I was wrong about Moiraine. I saw all sorts of things in her future, and she's dead. Maybe some of the other things I saw never came true either."
So, no. We're not waiting to find out if Moiraine's coming back. We're just waiting to see what she does when she returns.

We know one thing that she will do (more clues from books 7 and 8):
RJ said:
TITLE - A Crown of Swords
EPIGRAM
"There can be no health in us, nor any good thing grow, for the land is one with the Dragon Reborn, and he one with the land. Soul of fire, heart of stone, in pride he conquers, forcing the proud to yield. He calls upon the mountains to kneel, and the seas to give way, and the very skies to bow. Pray that the heart of stone remembers tears, and the soul of fire, love." - From a much-disputed translation of The Prophecies of the Dragon by the poet Kyera Termendal, of Shiota, believed to have been published between FY 700 and FY 800.
RJ said:
TITLE - The Path of Daggers
CHAPTER: 12 - New Alliances
Still, Cadsuane felt a rising thrill of possibility. If she had had any doubts that Sorilea wanted to feel her out, they were gone. And you did not feel out someone in this manner unless you hoped for some agreement. "Do you believe a man must be hard?" she asked. She was taking a chance. "Or strong?" By her tone, she left no doubt she saw a difference.
Again Sorilea touched the tray; the smallest of smiles might have quirked her lips for an instant. Or not. "Most men see the two as one and the same, Cadsuane Melaidhrin. Strong endures; hard shatters."
Cadsuane drew breath. A chance she would have scoured anyone else for taking. But she was not anyone else, and sometimes chances had to be taken. "The boy confuses them," she said. "He needs to be strong, and makes himself harder. Too hard, already, and he will not stop until he is stopped. He has forgotten how to laugh except in bitterness; there are no tears left in him. Unless he finds laughter and tears again, the world faces disaster. He must learn that even the Dragon Reborn is flesh. If he goes to Tarmon Gai'don as he is, even his victory may be as dark as his defeat."
From the very next chapter:
RJ said:
TITLE - The Path of Daggers
CHAPTER: 13 - Floating Like Snow
Rand heard the lie on the man's tongue, but Hopwil had to learn. After all, he had. They were what they were, and that was all there was to it. All there was. Liah, of the Cosaida Chareen, a name written in fire. Moiraine Damodred, another name that seared to the soul rather than merely burning. A nameless Darkfriend, represented only by a face, who had died by his sword near...
And from book 9, when he was imprisoned in Far Madding:
RJ said:
TITLE - Winter's Heart
CHAPTER: 34 - The Hummingbird's Secret
"I will not surrender!" he shouted. "I will be as hard as I need to be!" In that confined space, his voice boomed like thunder.
Moiraine had died because he was not hard enough to do what had to be done. Her name always headed the list engraved on his brain, the women who had died because of him. Moiraine Damodred. Every name on that list brought anguish that made him forget the pains of his body, forget the stone walls just beyond his fingertips. Colavaere Saighan, who died because he had stripped her of everything she valued. Liah, Maiden of the Spear, of the Cosaida Chareen, who died at his own hands because she followed him to Shadar Logoth. Jendhilin, a Maiden of the Cold Peak Miagoma who died because she wanted the honor of guarding his door. He had to be hard! One by one he summoned up the names on that long list, patiently forging his soul in the fires of pain.
And from book 11:
RJ said:
TITLE - Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: 18 - News for the Dragon
As for himself, he could not look at any of them without the litany of women who had died for him, women he had killed, starting up in his head. Moiraine Damodred. Her above all. Her name was written inside his skull in fire. Liah of the Cosaida Chareen, Sendara of the Iron Mountain Taardad. Lamelle of the Smoke Water Miagoma, Andhilin of the Red Salt Goshien, Desora of the Musara Reyn… So many names. Sometimes he woke in the middle of the night muttering that list, with Min holding him and murmuring to him as if soothing a child. He always told her he was all right and wanted to go back to sleep, yet after he closed his eyes, he did not sleep until the list had been completed. Sometimes Lews Therin chanted it with him.
RJ said:
TITLE - Knife of Dreams
CHAPTER: 21 - Within the Stone
Darlin Sisnera. High Lord and Steward in Tear for the Dragon Reborn, in a green silk coat with yellow-striped sleeves and gold-worked boots, was less than a head shorter than Rand, with close-cut hair and a pointed beard, a bold nose and blue eyes that were rare in Tear. Those eyes widened as he turned from a conversation with Caraline Damodred near the fireplace. The Cairhienin noblewoman gave Rand a jolt, though he had expected to see her here. The litany he used to forge his soul in fire almost started up in his head before he could stop it. Short and slim and pale, with large dark eyes and a small ruby dangling onto her forehead from a golden chain woven into the black hair falling in waves to her shoulders, she was the very image of her cousin Moiraine. Of all things, she wore a long blue coat, embroidered in golden scrolls except for the horizontal stripes of red, green and white that ran from neck to hem. over snug green breeches and heeled blue boots. It seemed the fashion had traveled after all. She made a curtsy, even so, though it looked odd in that garb. Lews Therin hummed even harder, making Rand wish the man had a face so he could hit him. Moiraine was a memory for hardening his soul, not for humming at.
So, we know that Moiraine's return will be influential on Rand's state of mind, and that she will marry Thom, and little else, but we KNOW she's coming back. I do have a pet theory that Moiraine and Thom will rule Cairhien, though.