[Dag]

As all of you probably know, months and months of negotiations have ended in a deadlock. The Troika has explored all the possibilities that might have led to a negotiatied solution. Both candidates in the runoff in Serbian presidential elections next weekend have sworn that they would never recognize Kosovo as an independent state, and in that decision - according to polls - they have the full backing of the vast majority of Serbian citizens. On the other hand, inspite of the EU's statement that it would not approve of an unilateral declaration of independence, two days ago in Brussels Kosovo's PM Thaci has publicly announced that the declaration of Kosovo's independence was an issue of days, and the Kosovo Albanians unanimously cheer at that prospect.

So, to quote what Tim Judah wrote directly before the unsuccessful ending of the negotiations two months ago, "it is clear that one chapter in this tortuous story is closing and, over the next few months, a new one opening." What I'm interested in is - what do you think will the next chapter in the Kosovo story be?

Do you believe it is inevitable for Kosovo to become the Balkans' last independent state?

If yes - what impact will its independence have globally? How real are the fears that recognizing Kosovo as an independent state might open a “Pandora's Box” and give so to say a "green light" to separatist forces around the world, i.e. setting precedent for other breakaway regions like South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transdniestria?

And, finally - can such a small country with modest natural resources and a rather low level of industrial development be economically viable?

So, these are my questions. As far as my personal opinions/predictions go, at the moment I'm inclined to answer them all with "yes", and add that I do believe that Kosovo's independence would have a serious impact on a) the SEE region (bringing to an end the long years of political chaos in the Balkans and thus leaving only the question of BiH open) and Russia, who is involved in several conflicts concerning breakaway provinces that might follow Kosovo's example. Also, the fact that Kosovo has been (and still is) used as a pawn in the general US-Russian game of power, makes the outcome of the Kosovo case even more interesting.

I would appreciate it if you would post some of your thoughts on this matter.

Tnx!

[ch'arlz]

Dag;248533 said:

If yes - what impact will its independence have globally? How real are the fears that recognizing Kosovo as an independent state might open a “Pandora's Box” and give so to say a "green light" to separatist forces around the world, i.e. setting precedent for other breakaway regions like South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transdniestria?

And, finally - can such a small country with modest natural resources and a rather low level of industrial development be economically viable?

If one can posit two main forces at work in the world today -- globalisation and fundamentalism -- which are mostly having opposite effects whilst feeding each other, then Kosovo can be viewed as one but hardly the first result of the fundamentalist pressures. viz. the current state of Iraq with Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites,etc trending toward separate states. If national boundaries were established through outside political pressures, and ethnic groups resisting global assimilation decide that enclaves might protect them, then splinter countries will emerge, either by agreement or conflict. As to whether Kosovo is viable, Lichtenstein seems to do OK.

The real question is if the lumpenproletariat will ever realize that this dialectic isn't inevitable.

[Mentalist]

hmmm... I will dare toclarify the original statement--Russia is involved in backing up several breakaway states that are part of FSU republics.

As to whether Kosovo will retain its independence, the question that is probably asked by most Serbs is, how will they be able to prevent the incopporation of this state back into Albania?
Also, it seems pretty clear that Serbs will NOT just shrug it off and forget about Kosovo, and if there should be hypothetical lapse in worldwide security with Albania's backers being unable to come to its assistance and "pacify" serbia, I'm fully expecting to see another war over it, since Serbs believe themselves to be fully justified in that.

[chill]

The problem with Kosovo is that Serbs regard it as a part of their history (a battle was fought there against the Osmans). Also, serbian radicals have not yet given up their dream about the Great Serbia (that would include Croatia, BiH and Macedonia, beside Kosovo, as a part of Serbia). The Serbs just won't let it go.

[Dag]

kud13;249535 said:

hmmm... I will dare toclarify the original statement--Russia is involved in backing up several breakaway states that are part of FSU republics.

Yes. Thus IMO the final decision of the international community on Kosovo status will strongly influence Russia and its relations with countries like Georgia or Moldova. However, Russia is not the only country involved in such conflicts – and to turn things around, it will be quite interesting to see how China will react (Stichwort: Taiwan; here is a nice article touching upon this aspect from Monday’s IHT). Or Spain, as a matter of fact: could Kosovo set a precedent for the Basque country…?

Quote

As to whether Kosovo will retain its independence, the question that is probably asked by most Serbs is, how will they be able to prevent the incopporation of this state back into Albania? Also, it seems pretty clear that Serbs will NOT just shrug it off and forget about Kosovo, and if there should be hypothetical lapse in worldwide security with Albania's backers being unable to come to its assistance and "pacify" serbia, I'm fully expecting to see another war over it, since Serbs believe themselves to be fully justified in that.

First, just a small correction: Kosovo cannot be incorporated back into Albania, since it has never really been a part of it. Kosovo has been a part of Serbian territory since 12th century, and the fact that it is today populated by Albanians (over 90% of population) is a result of migration flow during the Ottoman rule (Serbs fled before Turks to the north, Turkish rulers brought the conquered Albanians to populate the empty region and work for them etc.)

Secondly, Kosovo joining Albania after its declaration of independence – that is a highly unlikely scenario. Some ten years ago, before/during the war, it was seen as an option, yes – considering the state Kosovo was in, it was difficult to talk about independence and the question of its future was seen rather in terms of Serbia-or-Albania choice. But now, after years of UN supervised autonomy within Serbia, Kosovo has shown all predispositions to function as an independent state. With prospect of independence looming ahead, the Kosovo Albanians are not willing to simply switch from Serbia to Albania and keep the same status within boundaries of another country. Also, Albania, currently striving to get into NATO and eventually into the EU, has openly stated that although it would support Kosovo in any way it can, it has no pretensions on Kosovo territory. Stating (and behaving) otherwise would at the moment have quite a negative impact on its ambitions, turning such a move in a complete loss and no gain.

As to another war in the region: No, I don’t see it coming. Should Kosovo declare independence, it is to be expected that Serb minority in Kosovo might grab their Kalashnikovs and organize some kind of guerilla-resistance, quietly supported by Serbia. But Serbia as a state has lost its teeth after 1990s wars, and although the feelings in Belgrade might get high, it will not be able to do much more than shake its fists and shout. The memories of NATO bombardment are still fresh in minds of people. And Albania, seeking to take the role of NATO’s (read: America’s) most fervent ally in the region, has certainly no interests to get involved into this conflict apart from maybe participating in an international peace-keeping troop.

[Dag]

ch said:

If one can posit two main forces at work in the world today -- globalisation and fundamentalism -- which are mostly having opposite effects whilst feeding each other, then Kosovo can be viewed as one but hardly the first result of the fundamentalist pressures. viz. the current state of Iraq with Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites,etc trending toward separate states. If national boundaries were established through outside political pressures, and ethnic groups resisting global assimilation decide that enclaves might protect them, then splinter countries will emerge, either by agreement or conflict.

I wouldn't say that the Kosovo problem is a result of fundamentalist pressures – at least not from the inside. And talking about globalization - in European terms, Serbia is still the odd-one-out on Balkans. Montenegro broke away from it when it realized that it has better chances to join the European family on its own than with the past and present burdens of its bigger sister on its back. I think that in this case similar logic can be applied to Kosovo; the question if Kosovo wouldn’t manage quicker integration into international community on its own rather than as a part of Serbia is not ridiculous at all. And although everyone is focusing on Kosovo and its next move at the moment, I think an even more important question is, what will Serbia's next move be and if after the elections it will be able to come up with a consistent concept of policy towards the EU, UN and NATO.

Quote

As to whether Kosovo is viable, Lichtenstein seems to do OK.

I agree with you completely. There are enough similar examples. Should it indeed become independent, with a little help of the EU and some well placed investments, Kosovo has IMO good chances to develop into a prosperous mini-state within next decade or two.

[Tsaritsa]

I have a feeling a war will result from this. Maybe not immediately..but it is brewing

It has an eerie feeling of WWI around it..which as we all know was initiated by the Serbian assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand and his Wife Sophie.

Putin is making veiled threats, which will most likely amount to nothing if things stand as they do now, but should Serbia not let this matter drop? (which I doubt they will in the long term)

What will happen if Serbia decides to attack Kosovo again?

Kosovo backers will surely intervene…then enter Russia on the Serbian side

And hey presto we have a stage set for war again

*sigh*

[Mentalist]

heh... I've been posting this a lot, all over the place

conditions for indencdence (taken from an IR textbook)

1) de-facto--control over territory by state
2) De-jure --recognition by the UN

Kosovo's still being run as a UN protectorate, with UN and not Kosovo troops watching the borders--as such, no de-facto
UN won't recognise it, not with Russsia and Chian on the security council--so no de-jure, either.
so, essentiallym nothing really changes, cept for US, UK, France, Germany + the rest saying "we don't like you" to the serbs...

And this does have "precedent" written all over it
oh yeah, now Bosnian Serbs are talking about a referendum to separate a la Kosovo...

@ economy--Luxembourg has banking + is a steel supplier for a large chunk of Europe
Lixtenstein has banking
Monaco has a casino

Kosovo has Drugs + Sex slaves...

[Dag]

Tsaritsa;268603 said:

I have a feeling a war will result from this. Maybe not immediately..but it is brewing

As already mentioned above, the war-scenario is highly unlikely IMO. Serbia has neither the capacity nor sufficient motivation to get entangled in another Balkan conflict and the new generation is more than willing to leave the past behind and finally get into the EU. There will be strong resistance among the Kosovo Serbs, yes, and they will receive support from the radical forces in Serbia, but apart from a few angry shots we'll probably witness over the next few weeks, I don't believe that the resistance will surpass occasional individual incidents as seen in e.g. South Tyrol in the past. (Yes, you can call me "an optimist"... )

kud13;268834 said:

UN won't recognise it, not with Russsia and Chian on the security council--so no de-jure, either.

Naah... They'll compromise in the end. Much can be said of Putin, but one thing he is certainly not - and that is "stupid". He's not out for a war, he's out for profit and power for Russia; I think he'll use Kosovo smartly as a valuable chip in the international roulette game and carry home the profit with a cold grin of satisfaction in his face. And China will do what Russia does... after transporting enough troops to Taiwan. (EDIT: For the sake of all the people there, I honestly hope the Taiwan sitauation comes to a peaceful conclusion... but I'm not so optimistic about that one...)

Quote

so, essentiallym nothing really changes, cept for US, UK, France, Germany + the rest saying "we don't like you" to the serbs...

Oh, come on, not again that "poor Serbs against the rest of the world" rhetoric... And what if they're just trying to say "we like Kosovo Albanians"?

Quote

And this does have "precedent" written all over it
oh yeah, now Bosnian Serbs are talking about a referendum to separate a la Kosovo...

Agree completely with the precedent part, but disagree about Republika Srpska: They can do 100 referendums with a big "Yes!" outcome, but they know that they can never make it on their own. And Serbia doesn't really want them in her lap...

Quote

@ economy--Luxembourg has banking + is a steel supplier for a large chunk of Europe
Lixtenstein has banking
Monaco has a casino

Kosovo has Drugs + Sex slaves...

That's... harsh. When have you last been to Kosovo, if I may ask...?

[Mentalist]

heh, last thing WAS a joke, btw..
But I have heard that repeatedly.. and prompts to provide economic data from patriotic Albanians usually results in "it's all Serbia's fault" type of derailment...

Quote

Oh, come on, not again that "poor Serbs against the rest of the world" rhetoric... And what if they're just trying to say "we like Kosovo Albanians"?

then they could've just said it without violating international law, lol

heh, I don't see why people can't just accept that Serbia lost the war and is thus getting such harsh international treatment, and instead they try to make it out to be the Nazi germany of the 1990's...

[Dag]

kud13;268904 said:

heh, I don't see why people can't just accept that Serbia lost the war and is thus getting such harsh international treatment, and instead they try to make it out to be the Nazi germany of the 1990's...

Who's saying that...? :confused: Personally, I see Serbia as a country whose leadership has made some grave mistakes in the past that have in a horrible way hurt many innocent people - including their own. And it's also a country that now has a fair chance to go forward and finally drop that 500 years old "Oh, why did Marko arive to Kosovo too late...?" moan and make something good of their future.

As simple as that.

[Tsaritsa]

i agree wholeheartedly Dag

[Shpetim]

I am an Albanian Kosovar (Kosovoalbanian) by birth. I am happy that said declaration came at last. I sat and watched, glued to the tv, the bbc live coverage of the declaration. The 17'th of last month. And I was, mildly stated, damn proud of Thaci, the prime minister. He actually not only read the declaration in Albanian (which is the mother tounge of the Kosovoalbanians) but also in Serbian as well.. Well THAT was uncalled for. I can attest to the fact that the Serb goverment NEVER considered allowing Albanian to be used in the meetings of the cabinet, despite the fact that Albanians made up for a considerable amount of the population in Kosovo, but never mind that.. That fact was never recognized by the Serb authorities which stubbornly kept to their version of the Albanian population in Kosovo being a minority, even though they consisted of more or less 90% of the population. But anyway, no wonder violence flared so badly as it did.. Delusional politicians celebrating long forgotten legends and inciting violence and hate: ON BOTH SIDES were more than a match for the moderate attempts of both Serb and Albanian anti-nationalist activists. I sure hope that such tendencies will gradually be uprooted from the minds and consciousness of the population there... the sooner they realise that they're just people who just happen to belong to a slightly different culture, the better.. Tito's version of Yugoslavia actually saved the Confederation from it's death sentence. It could've been saved if not for the nationalist propaganda raging on both sides. Gods how I HATE nationalism.. the one thing that I actually consider far more dangerous than any religious fundamentalism is nationalism... It must needs be systematically exterminated from Balkans if one wants to make 100% sure that peace and tolerance will endure...

Hopefully this "state" if it survives will revive the tolerance of the pre90's Yugoslavia that the region suffers a fatal lack of....

[councilor]

right to self determination. they should be able to do what they like.

unfortunately, the world is not that simple. as much as i support it, it sets and unpleasant precedent. what if ALL such regions declare themselves as independent states? the disintegration into city states perhaps?

[Thelomen Toblerone]

This question can be summed up using the following analogy, in my eyes:

California has been part of the US for pretty much all of the US' history. It was always predominantly populated during this period by Americans. However, there are now an increasing number of Mexicans.

Fast forward 100 years. The population statistics are 80% of mexican origin in California. These 80% are calling for California to either join with Mexico, or be given independence.

Most Americans would be up in arms (quite literally in many redneck cases) about this, and refuse it.

This is the situation I see the Serbs in. Due to a recent nutty dictator in their history, they are not internationally liked, and this has caused them to suffer. But this is like telling Germany that Schleswig Holstein is being given to Denmark because of Hitler, as far as Im concerned.

I'm against Kosovo as an independent state in principle. Now that it's happened, it bothers me a little, but shit happens as they say and I feel no ill will towards it.

I cant see the serbs being able to do much about it, so barring some small-scale local guerillas, I expect the situation to settle down.

I cant see Kosovo performing well economically though. Poor education levels, poor infrastructure, poor economy, no real natural resources, no tourism draw. Dont expect much from it.

[Shpetim]

Thelomen Toblerone;271946 said:

I cant see Kosovo performing well economically though. Poor education levels, poor infrastructure, poor economy, no real natural resources, no tourism draw. Dont expect much from it.

I dissagree with some of your point here..
perhaps the educational level is poor compared to the western Europe's one, but hell, you should've seen our resilience to keep on learning even after the schooling locales were confiscated by the authoroties during the 90's. Private homes with almost no chairs and benches, the majority of the students sitting on the ground, books on their knees.. I believe that said levels will increase rapidly in the near future...

as to your assesment about no real natural resources... well you're terribly wrong there.. Kosovo is actually very rich on resources, just that there are no means of winning them out as the state budjet is being mostly concentrated on the ifrastructure and security to begin with.. but it will come..
Tourism draw will come as well, just that the country needs stabilising first. Ever heard of Brezovica? Well, it's not like world wide known like the Alps, but it's a fair mountanious area that will eventually be open for business..

The main challenges at the moment are corruption and poverty. But help is arriving..
Hell, only few days ago there was a blast of an arms depo in Gerdec, Albania that claimed the lives of at least five and injured over 200. The very same day there were several tens of bags of blood were sent from Kosovo to help those in need in the neighbouring country. So the civil level of readiness is quite fair to say the least.
My main hope is the protection of the right of the minorities in Kosovo, serbs, turks, romanii, bosnians and such.. If they manage that succesfuly, then they've lived up to European levels, at least when it comes to the protection of the populace.
But time will show.. AS I said it the first time, I really hope that Kosovo will be a country of tolerance and understanding between the nations of Balkans..

[Gothos]

why don't we allow independance for Osetia, Kurdistan, Basque Country, Scotland and whatnot? and the Palestinians too, while we're at it. yes, AGAIN.
if Kosovo is 90% albanian, make it join Albania. no reason for another country in that hellhole of a region.

[Shpetim]

The reasoning behind a separate country instead of unification with Albania is the multi'ethnical nature of Kosovar population. Sure albanians make up the majority, but there's also others there who'll most likely rebel if Kosovo is to be trated as a solely Albanian province/state. The multi-ethnical character of Kosovo is symbolised in the new Kosovo Flag as well, a blue field with the map of Kosovo in the middle ceowned by six stars on top of it. The six stars (such as I've understood it) represent the Albanians, Serbs, Bosnians, Turks, Romanii and the Ashkali (absolutely no idea what they're called in english) which are a sort of a mixture between the romanii serb and albanian... So, to my understanding, it is essencial that their rights are protected and upheld. Enough is enough. People are to be treat as such from now on, regardless of their national identity or religion.
One good thing about Albanians that I can actually be proud of is their non'religious nature compared with other Balkan nations. Yes, they are believers, but first and foremost they're Albanians.. It's no big exaggaration claiming that Albanians are among the first secular natinons in Balkans, if not Europe...