[Khellendros]

ToasTer86, on 10 February 2020 - 07:31 AM, said:

Hey everyone as this game is coming to an end, either this round or next round.

As I expect no one can stop me from reaching 10 points this turn, by scoring my third secret and a stage II, I want to reflect on how I played.
Due to my slice and my race I was able to keep up with the pack, even be first for a while. I scored solidly every round. But never got to Mecatol, an agenda or action card point.
I scored my difficult secrets and control objectives early and due to that I never have had to engage in combat yet this game. Just once getting a planet back from my slice from Nom.

So in the interest of being realistic and anyone being able to reach the same conclusion. I present to you below the summation of my chance of winning this round. Or any round actually.
Because wiith all secrets scored, and I assume we can only score 3 secrets, at 10 points my only chance of winning is scoring a second stage objective.

As I have also score 4 of the stage I objectives, I could only ever reach 11 points with all stage I objectives. This concludes that I am forced to score a stage II.
As the last chance are some agenda's or Imperial rider, but I do not see any of those going to my favor.

|Centralize Galactic Trade | Spend 10 trade goods | 2 | Impossible Due to having only having 2 TG left, the action cards for getting TG just both got played with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with.
|Conquer the Weak | Control 1 planet that is in another player's home system | 2 |Very hard, Invading Morgoth will cost me a point no option, invading Nom seems unlikely. There might be a slim chance that I could use the Ghost PN to use the A/B wormhole to get somewhere.
|Form Galactic Brain Trust | Control 5 planets that have technology specialties | 2 | Impossible, I only have 1 tech specialty. I do not have the movement or forces to get 4 others
|Found a Golden Age | Spend 16 resources | 2 | Impossible, I can get to 11 resources using all my planets, with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with and no actions card for getting TG remaining
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2| Impossible, I have 3 cultural, 2 industrial, 2 hazardous. No one will let me get 6 cultural
|Manipulate Galactic Law | Spend 16 influence | 2 | Already scored
|Master the Sciences | Own 2 technologies in each of 4 colors | 2 | Impossible, I have 4 green, 2 blue, 1 yellow --> missing 3 tech.. The action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Revolutionize Warfare | Own 3 unit upgrade technologies | 2 | Impossible, I have zero unit upgrades. he action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Subdue the Galaxy | Control 11 planets in non-home systems | 2 | Very hard, I have 7 non-home planets so there could be a chance I could invade 4 planets. Although looking at my possibilities The only route in range, is Manso and the other 3 planet system.
The retaliation will be real. I can't take all these planets and keep them.
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2 |Very possible, After relocating tokens I have 2/4/0 + 3 from my refresh. I would need to get 1 or more from leadership. Although would leave no action for my turn.

My conclusion is that if Unify the Colonies comes up a lot of people will try to engage my home system, and throw action cards at me. Predicting the outcome of that kind of end-game is impossible, so you guys could stop me, maybe not. but most likely just make the player in second place win either that round or next round.
From my point-of-view, Unify the Colonies, is the only chance to win next round, and there is a 12.5% or 1 in 8 eight chance this objective will flip.

I enjoyed this game and although I know it is not over yet, I see a slim chance of pulling the victory or doing a surprise win. As all my cards are open and my option are very slim.

As long as I do not see a path to victory for my self, I want everyone to know that I will not be king making, or trying to stop/influence other people from obtaining a win.
I do not leader bash as long as it will benefit myself.

Maybe some people were not this far with deducting my chances to win, and I set myself back doing this, but for me -> a realist -> this is the best I can do. And hopefully it will help other to deduct their chances, or which leader to stop.
Hope you enjoyed this read and the game so far


EDIT: such a shame tabs do not work.

While I appreciate the in-depth breakdown here (and I think that you have played a very good game overall), I am quite suspicious of your intentions behind this and I do not believe you are the non-threat you paint yourself as. Indeed, I think that you think victory is in sight. As for what, if anything, I could do about it...probably not a whole lot.

Having said that, I am very pleased with how I have played this game. I think I have done just about all I can do to score points consistently (I put it to you that we will never again see someone scoring the 5 tech planet objective in a 9-player game), and I have consciously resisted the urge to be aggressive while playing as the Letnev, as that struck me as a red herring. In some cases, I have been lucky. I do think the north and western quadrants have benefited from being peaceful, but that is also a result of being able to make deals which feel satisfactory to all. I also think that the 'exhaust all your planets' agenda actually came at just the right time for me, as this was the round in which I had practically no actions, so the agenda helped to stall everyone else a little bit too. Nevertheless, unless a very specific PO comes up next, I do not think I have a chance at winning. But hey, if that appears to be the case next round, then we might indeed see a much more aggressive nothing-to-lose Letnev

This post has been edited by Khellendros: 12 February 2020 - 11:15 AM

[Imperial Historian]

This analysis of everyones victory chances and gameplay so early is making me wonder what devious schemes people have going on in the background.

[Imperial Historian]

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

[Tattersail_]

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

He has done so later in his post.

[D'rek]

Tattersail_, on 12 February 2020 - 03:08 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

He has done so later in his post.

He has promised to (try and) do so, but not actually done it.

[Tattersail_]

Well you can only do one PN exchange per turn no?

[D'rek]

Tattersail_, on 12 February 2020 - 03:18 PM, said:

Well you can only do one PN exchange per turn no?

1 each way

[twelve]

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

I did it during the pds timing window to make as much of it binding as possible. And as Tatts pointed out we can only trade once per turn so had to trade everything during that timing window

[twelve]

Morgoth, on 12 February 2020 - 06:08 AM, said:

You need to understand that twelve holds no understanding in his heart. Only hate.

Anger, self loathing, frustration but never hate.

[Imperial Historian]

twelve, on 12 February 2020 - 03:23 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

I did it during the pds timing window to make as much of it binding as possible. And as Tatts pointed out we can only trade once per turn so had to trade everything during that timing window

Yes we agreed 2 tg to not fire which is clearly binding on me.

I don't see any difference in me trading you my sftt back for your trade PN first turn after youve actually done all the things you've promised. Currently this is binding in your favour not in mine.

So I'll do all of the rest of the trade other than the 2tg to turn off pds after you've done most of the things you've promised rather than right now.

[twelve]

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:55 PM, said:

twelve, on 12 February 2020 - 03:23 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

I did it during the pds timing window to make as much of it binding as possible. And as Tatts pointed out we can only trade once per turn so had to trade everything during that timing window

Yes we agreed 2 tg to not fire which is clearly binding on me.

I don't see any difference in me trading you my sftt back for your trade PN first turn after youve actually done all the things you've promised. Currently this is binding in your favour not in mine.

So I'll do all of the rest of the trade other than the 2tg to turn off pds after you've done most of the things you've promised rather than right now.

So the trade is just the 2 the now? Then next round I get the sftt back after I pick trade and give you the trade agreement pn? The sftt back pretty much right away was one of the main reasons I accepted the deal as I had been planning on taking trade anyway. Leaving a non binding deal for your sfft wasn't what I wanted to risk. But if that is how you want to play it then I guess it's too late for me to back out now.

[ToasTer86]

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:55 PM, said:

twelve, on 12 February 2020 - 03:23 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

I did it during the pds timing window to make as much of it binding as possible. And as Tatts pointed out we can only trade once per turn so had to trade everything during that timing window

Yes we agreed 2 tg to not fire which is clearly binding on me.

I don't see any difference in me trading you my sftt back for your trade PN first turn after youve actually done all the things you've promised. Currently this is binding in your favour not in mine.

So I'll do all of the rest of the trade other than the 2tg to turn off pds after you've done most of the things you've promised rather than right now.

Harsh....

[ToasTer86]

Khellendros, on 12 February 2020 - 11:14 AM, said:

ToasTer86, on 10 February 2020 - 07:31 AM, said:

Hey everyone as this game is coming to an end, either this round or next round.

As I expect no one can stop me from reaching 10 points this turn, by scoring my third secret and a stage II, I want to reflect on how I played.
Due to my slice and my race I was able to keep up with the pack, even be first for a while. I scored solidly every round. But never got to Mecatol, an agenda or action card point.
I scored my difficult secrets and control objectives early and due to that I never have had to engage in combat yet this game. Just once getting a planet back from my slice from Nom.

So in the interest of being realistic and anyone being able to reach the same conclusion. I present to you below the summation of my chance of winning this round. Or any round actually.
Because wiith all secrets scored, and I assume we can only score 3 secrets, at 10 points my only chance of winning is scoring a second stage objective.

As I have also score 4 of the stage I objectives, I could only ever reach 11 points with all stage I objectives. This concludes that I am forced to score a stage II.
As the last chance are some agenda's or Imperial rider, but I do not see any of those going to my favor.

|Centralize Galactic Trade | Spend 10 trade goods | 2 | Impossible Due to having only having 2 TG left, the action cards for getting TG just both got played with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with.
|Conquer the Weak | Control 1 planet that is in another player's home system | 2 |Very hard, Invading Morgoth will cost me a point no option, invading Nom seems unlikely. There might be a slim chance that I could use the Ghost PN to use the A/B wormhole to get somewhere.
|Form Galactic Brain Trust | Control 5 planets that have technology specialties | 2 | Impossible, I only have 1 tech specialty. I do not have the movement or forces to get 4 others
|Found a Golden Age | Spend 16 resources | 2 | Impossible, I can get to 11 resources using all my planets, with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with and no actions card for getting TG remaining
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2| Impossible, I have 3 cultural, 2 industrial, 2 hazardous. No one will let me get 6 cultural
|Manipulate Galactic Law | Spend 16 influence | 2 | Already scored
|Master the Sciences | Own 2 technologies in each of 4 colors | 2 | Impossible, I have 4 green, 2 blue, 1 yellow --> missing 3 tech.. The action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Revolutionize Warfare | Own 3 unit upgrade technologies | 2 | Impossible, I have zero unit upgrades. he action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Subdue the Galaxy | Control 11 planets in non-home systems | 2 | Very hard, I have 7 non-home planets so there could be a chance I could invade 4 planets. Although looking at my possibilities The only route in range, is Manso and the other 3 planet system.
The retaliation will be real. I can't take all these planets and keep them.
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2 |Very possible, After relocating tokens I have 2/4/0 + 3 from my refresh. I would need to get 1 or more from leadership. Although would leave no action for my turn.

My conclusion is that if Unify the Colonies comes up a lot of people will try to engage my home system, and throw action cards at me. Predicting the outcome of that kind of end-game is impossible, so you guys could stop me, maybe not. but most likely just make the player in second place win either that round or next round.
From my point-of-view, Unify the Colonies, is the only chance to win next round, and there is a 12.5% or 1 in 8 eight chance this objective will flip.

I enjoyed this game and although I know it is not over yet, I see a slim chance of pulling the victory or doing a surprise win. As all my cards are open and my option are very slim.

As long as I do not see a path to victory for my self, I want everyone to know that I will not be king making, or trying to stop/influence other people from obtaining a win.
I do not leader bash as long as it will benefit myself.

Maybe some people were not this far with deducting my chances to win, and I set myself back doing this, but for me -> a realist -> this is the best I can do. And hopefully it will help other to deduct their chances, or which leader to stop.
Hope you enjoyed this read and the game so far


EDIT: such a shame tabs do not work.

While I appreciate the in-depth breakdown here (and I think that you have played a very good game overall), I am quite suspicious of your intentions behind this and I do not believe you are the non-threat you paint yourself as. Indeed, I think that you think victory is in sight. As for what, if anything, I could do about it...probably not a whole lot.

Why suspicious you can look at my play area right ?? I never understood why people think other players are international spies, able of hiding secrets that are in cler daylight, so that anyone can see..

Tell me what can I hide, I wish I had a chance to score next round except Unify the colonies...?
I scored all secrets. You can see what I can score at any moment. I will not get another sftt from another player. I am 3 TG off scoring the LAST stage I which will only take me to 11.

I am as bummed out as my tone sounds. This is why 1 Mecatol point or the custodian token is so important.

This post has been edited by ToasTer86: 12 February 2020 - 07:33 PM

[Imperial Historian]

twelve, on 12 February 2020 - 05:48 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:55 PM, said:

twelve, on 12 February 2020 - 03:23 PM, said:

Imperial Historian, on 12 February 2020 - 03:07 PM, said:

Twelve I assumed we were trading you my sftt back after you had voted for me and picked trade?

I did it during the pds timing window to make as much of it binding as possible. And as Tatts pointed out we can only trade once per turn so had to trade everything during that timing window

Yes we agreed 2 tg to not fire which is clearly binding on me.

I don't see any difference in me trading you my sftt back for your trade PN first turn after youve actually done all the things you've promised. Currently this is binding in your favour not in mine.

So I'll do all of the rest of the trade other than the 2tg to turn off pds after you've done most of the things you've promised rather than right now.

So the trade is just the 2 the now? Then next round I get the sftt back after I pick trade and give you the trade agreement pn? The sftt back pretty much right away was one of the main reasons I accepted the deal as I had been planning on taking trade anyway. Leaving a non binding deal for your sfft wasn't what I wanted to risk. But if that is how you want to play it then I guess it's too late for me to back out now.

I don't want to risk a non binding deal at this point of the game, especially for my sftt. I want the things you've offered so I can't see me not giving it you, but giving you so much and you changing your mind would suck.

[Tattersail_]

Twelve you're not getting that back if you have a chance of winning. IH already has his excuses lined up.

[Khellendros]

If he’s not getting it back can I have it?

[Imperial Historian]

Tattersail_, on 12 February 2020 - 10:05 PM, said:

Twelve you're not getting that back if you have a chance of winning. IH already has his excuses lined up.

You have such a low opinion of me tatts, I'm hurt :'(

Looking forward to the agenda phase!

[Imperial Historian]

Khellendros, on 12 February 2020 - 10:15 PM, said:

If he’s not getting it back can I have it?

Twelve has dibs sorry

[ToasTer86]

All have passed now right ?
Waiting for Blend to update ?

[D'rek]

Ya, I think so. Not a bad idea for everyone to put their status update post in their PMs as a provisional and Blend can simply post those when he updates.