Hey everyone as this game is coming to an end, either this round or next round.
As I expect no one can stop me from reaching 10 points this turn, by scoring my third secret and a stage II, I want to reflect on how I played.
Due to my slice and my race I was able to keep up with the pack, even be first for a while. I scored solidly every round. But never got to Mecatol, an agenda or action card point.
I scored my difficult secrets and control objectives early and due to that I never have had to engage in combat yet this game. Just once getting a planet back from my slice from Nom.
So in the interest of being realistic and anyone being able to reach the same conclusion. I present to you below the summation of my chance of winning this round. Or any round actually.
Because wiith all secrets scored, and I assume we can only score 3 secrets, at 10 points my only chance of winning is scoring a second stage objective.
As I have also score 4 of the stage I objectives, I could only
ever reach 11 points with all stage I objectives. This concludes that I am
forced to score a stage II.
As the last chance are some agenda's or Imperial rider, but I do not see any of those going to my favor.
|Centralize Galactic Trade | Spend 10 trade goods | 2 | Impossible Due to having only having 2 TG left, the action cards for getting TG just both got played with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with.
|Conquer the Weak | Control 1 planet that is in another player's home system | 2 |Very hard, Invading Morgoth will cost me a point no option, invading Nom seems unlikely. There might be a slim chance that I could use the Ghost PN to use the A/B wormhole to get somewhere.
|Form Galactic Brain Trust | Control 5 planets that have technology specialties | 2 | Impossible, I only have 1 tech specialty. I do not have the movement or forces to get 4 others
|Found a Golden Age | Spend 16 resources | 2 | Impossible, I can get to 11 resources using all my planets, with only 2 TG and zero chance of getting trade or being trade with and no actions card for getting TG remaining
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2| Impossible, I have 3 cultural, 2 industrial, 2 hazardous. No one will let me get 6 cultural
|Manipulate Galactic Law | Spend 16 influence | 2 | Already scored
|Master the Sciences | Own 2 technologies in each of 4 colors | 2 | Impossible, I have 4 green, 2 blue, 1 yellow --> missing 3 tech.. The action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Revolutionize Warfare | Own 3 unit upgrade technologies | 2 | Impossible, I have zero unit upgrades. he action card to gain tech just got played, and I will never get tech as semi last in order. Will never get 3 tech in one round
|Subdue the Galaxy | Control 11 planets in non-home systems | 2 | Very hard, I have 7 non-home planets so there could be a chance I could invade 4 planets. Although looking at my possibilities The only route in range, is Manso and the other 3 planet system.
The retaliation will be real. I can't take all these planets and keep them.
|Unify the Colonies | Control 6 planets that each have the same planet trait | 2 |Very possible, After relocating tokens I have 2/4/0 + 3 from my refresh. I would need to get 1 or more from leadership. Although would leave no action for my turn.
My conclusion is that if
Unify the Colonies comes up a lot of people will try to engage my home system, and throw action cards at me. Predicting the outcome of that kind of end-game is impossible, so you guys could stop me, maybe not. but most likely just make the player in second place win either that round or next round.
From my point-of-view,
Unify the Colonies, is the only chance to win next round, and there is a 12.5% or 1 in 8 eight chance this objective will flip.
I enjoyed this game and although I know it is not over yet, I see a slim chance of pulling the victory or doing a surprise
win. As all my cards are open and my option are very slim.
As long as I do not see a path to victory for my self, I want everyone to know that I will not be king making, or trying to stop/influence other people from obtaining a win.
I do not leader bash as long as it will benefit myself.
Maybe some people were not this far with deducting my chances to win, and I set myself back doing this, but for me -> a realist -> this is the best I can do. And hopefully it will help other to deduct their chances, or which leader to stop.
Hope you enjoyed this read and the game so far
EDIT: such a shame tabs do not work.
This post has been edited by ToasTer86: 10 February 2020 - 08:03 AM