Malazan Empire: Mafia 148: Santa's Sleigh - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 148: Santa's Sleigh Ef-on-elf action

#121 User is offline   Ruse 

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 03:10 AM

I’m going to bed but would be happy to discuss tomorrow.

#122 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 12:42 PM

It is Day 3. The clock has been frozen with 24 Hours remaining.

5 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan, Ruse

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Aranatha ( Ruse )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan

Votes lynches etc will still be processed over the weekend. Timer will resume on Monday

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 04 January 2019 - 01:00 PM

Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#123 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 04:56 PM

I've been travelling for most of the day and I come back to D-Day and a vote on my ass. Love it.

I read Ruse's vote as a Finder reveal, otherwise it makes zero sense. I see two explanations:

1. Ruse is scum and knowing the outcome of D2, they realized they were the most likely lynch target for today so they went with a Finder fake reveal straight out of the gate to try and seal the deal quickly. Rash, but they were a solid suspect and Finder reveals very rarely don't lead to a lynch, so I see the appeal of trying that for scum.

2. Ruse is the insane Finder.

I'm leaning towards 1, because Ruse was my suspect in the previous day already and because the game is still ongoing, which indicates their vote is a scum vote. Either that or scum have not coordinated a hammer yet, in which case we're fucked anyway.

I'll likely be counter-voting but I'm also tired af right now so mostly thinking about a nap. Before I drop my vote, I want to go over the thread and look into possible connections. Will do that over the weekend.

EDIT
typo

This post has been edited by Aranatha: 04 January 2019 - 04:57 PM


#124 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 03:01 PM

Christ. Had notes from my re-read in the quick reply box and I refreshed the page. Gonna try and recreate it but also FML :|

I still maintain we had one killer on and one off the first lynch train. This is how it looked:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 02 January 2019 - 11:47 AM, said:

5 Votes for Okaros ( Aranatha, Fanderay, Jalan, Kalse, Skintick )
2 Votes for Skintick ( Eldat Pressen, Okaros )

Players not voted: Ay Estos, Ruse


That's a lynch.


Both killers would not skip their votes on the first day, so I'm ruling out Ay Estos + Ruse. Fandy + Jalan is also unlikely - two consecutive votes that made Okaros the most likely target? Very risky for D1. So that leaves two buckets:
Ay Estos, Ruse
Fanderay, Jalan

I strongly feel scum is one of each.

I've been suspecting Ruse from D2 and after I called them out for coasting, this happened:

View PostRuse, on 03 January 2019 - 03:48 PM, said:

View PostJalan, on 02 January 2019 - 12:16 PM, said:

View PostKalse, on 02 January 2019 - 03:47 AM, said:

The fact that Okaros ended his one-word post with an exclamation mark supposedly conveys a level of excitement about participating in the game. His lack of further contribution makes that initial declared intention suspect. vote Okaros Note: I *might* be a bit drunk and reading too much into things.


This is interesting. An attempt to substantiate a vote on Okaros, which looks a bit silly on a train that was admittedly and explicitly a low poster hunt.

Then that sentence at the end adding a proviso, almost as if trying to shed blame if the lynch goes wrong.

But we all know that a first day lynch, especially with this little content rarely goes right. Which makes this sentence rather suspicious.

What's up Kalse?

I agree, the exclamation point argument and then the comment on “drunk posting” seem a bit contrived.

After Ruse is slapped with a vote, they quickly latch onto Jalan's comment. It's a lazy 'ah this makes sense' type of post and shortly after they follow it up with a vote against Kalse, covered with name dropping five players in total: me, Skin, Eldat (dead), Kalse, and Fanderay.

Ruse is throwing shit at the wall and checking what sticks. Interestingly, there are only two names missing from their list: Ay Estos and Jalan.

Aaaaand while Ruse is on the defence, trying to deflect, Jalan conveniently comes around and drops a vote on Kalse, making it L-2:

View PostJalan, on 03 January 2019 - 04:39 PM, said:

To me Kalse still looks the most likely candidate.

I don't like the way they are trying to evade the issue

Vote Kalse

It's also a super lazy vote which I missed previously. Kalse has been saying they've been drunk and hungover. It's a shit excuse but Jalan beating the drum seems like they're just looking for any excuse to drop that vote.

Finally, people most suspicious about Ruse on D2 were me and Skin. Skin dies on N2 and I get a vote right out of the gate on D3.

Ay Estos has been distancing from Ruse here and there but it doesn't seem like they ever really entertained the idea of actually voting them. I'm speaking about these two posts:

View PostAy Estos, on 03 January 2019 - 06:17 PM, said:

So from my read I still find the train on Kalse the most appealing (and most definitely favourable to lynching ruse at this point), I could also see some alternatives but nobody else really seems to be interested in those and I have to give Skin that they've a good point about Fanderay


View PostAy Estos, on 03 January 2019 - 07:32 PM, said:

I see your point but as I said I find Ruse's suspicions reasonable. There's the fact that it took some pressure for them to even say anything, but since I think it's safe to assume Kalse is going to vote for Ruse out of self-preservation, and there's now something something resembling resistance to his train I'm going to

Vote Kalse

and see where this gets us

I wouldn't feel particularly comfortable with Fande deciding the lynch but nor do I particularly count on them to even show up


But, like I said, I don't see Ay Estos + Ruse as a viable pairing at all. That said, as I was pasting this last quote, something occurred to me. This line:
nor do I particularly count on them to even show up

It reads as if Ay Estos had off thread knowledge of Fandy's circumstances. Though it was like 30 hours since Fandy's previous post - but it still jumped at me.

tl;dr After reading through the previous two days, I think scum are Jalan and Ruse. The fact that I'm still alive, the way they were positioned in context of trains, and how they mounted an attack on Kalse when suspicion against Ruse first appeared: it all reads scummy. Tho there is one line from Ay that could have been a slip indicating an off-thread convo with Fandy. It's a much weaker case tho.

As it stands, I would be voting against Ruse, but want to hear other opinions.

EDIT:
Didn't paste the entire post from Notepad on the first try.

This post has been edited by Aranatha: 06 January 2019 - 03:02 PM


#125 User is offline   Ruse 

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 04:23 PM

I’m not surprised by Aranatha’s vote against me. It was a given that he’d call me scum as a last defense. I didn’t up my participation because he called me out, I was just busy, but had been frank about my opinions in the few posts I’d made.

So... I could be the crazy one, but his actions make me think I’m right he’s scum. Ironic that he picked Jalan to pair with me, because after day 1, I have been pretty sure (unless I’m crazy) that Jalan is town. If it helps to debunk Aranatha’s claim, I’ll point out that there has been zero distancing between us, which would be stupid play for killers in such a small game.

This IS dday unless we lynch scum, so I’d hope we lynch Aranatha. If we do, I expect to be dead, so I doubt I can provide anymore insights. I’ll reread and post my guess on Aranatha’s partner.

#126 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 04:37 PM

View PostRuse, on 06 January 2019 - 04:23 PM, said:

I’m not surprised by Aranatha’s vote against me.


There is no vote, but sure, go on.

#127 User is offline   Fanderay 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 12:00 AM

At this point I think it’s safe to say that one of you is scum. I’m inclined to believe that Ruse is claiming insane finder. Whether I believe him or not? Not sure.


It would be nice to get at least an “I’m here” from Jalan and Ay.

#128 User is offline   Ruse 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 01:20 AM

View PostFanderay, on 07 January 2019 - 12:00 AM, said:

At this point I think it’s safe to say that one of you is scum. I’m inclined to believe that Ruse is claiming insane finder. Whether I believe him or not? Not sure.


It would be nice to get at least an “I’m here” from Jalan and Ay.

I’m not claiming insane. I’m just saying I could be. I have no way of knowing for sure.

#129 User is offline   Fanderay 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 10:07 AM

https://youtu.be/fNLhxKpfCnA

#130 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 10:24 AM

I'm at work and have the thread open in the background, so will be off and on depending on how busy it's in the office today.

But I also said pretty much what I had to say and waiting for others to weigh in.

One more thing I can add is that if Ruse turns out to actually have been the insane finder (unlikely), starting D-Day with a vote was essentially sabotage. Pushing a quick lynch never benefits town and it sure as shit doesn't on D-Day. That's also why I think they're scum.

#131 User is offline   Ay Estos 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 10:33 AM

Checking in but back later

#132 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 12:23 PM

It is Day 3. 24 hours remaining


5 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan, Ruse

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Aranatha ( Ruse )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#133 User is offline   Ruse 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 02:43 PM

View PostAranatha, on 07 January 2019 - 10:24 AM, said:

I'm at work and have the thread open in the background, so will be off and on depending on how busy it's in the office today.

But I also said pretty much what I had to say and waiting for others to weigh in.

One more thing I can add is that if Ruse turns out to actually have been the insane finder (unlikely), starting D-Day with a vote was essentially sabotage. Pushing a quick lynch never benefits town and it sure as shit doesn't on D-Day. That's also why I think they're scum.

You are pushing the assumption that I’m insane, which I am finding more and more unlikely. I think revealing you as scum early allows the rest of town time to reread and make a sound decision. There has been no PUSHING for a lynch, only a vote.

#134 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 03:31 PM

This is getting funny. Let's pick apart Ruse's posts on D3, because there's more bullshit in them that I've seen in the entire game so far.

This one is a gem:

View PostRuse, on 06 January 2019 - 04:23 PM, said:

I’m not surprised by Aranatha’s vote against me. It was a given that he’d call me scum as a last defense. I didn’t up my participation because he called me out, I was just busy, but had been frank about my opinions in the few posts I’d made.

So... I could be the crazy one, but his actions make me think I’m right he’s scum. Ironic that he picked Jalan to pair with me, because after day 1, I have been pretty sure (unless I’m crazy) that Jalan is town. If it helps to debunk Aranatha’s claim, I’ll point out that there has been zero distancing between us, which would be stupid play for killers in such a small game.

This IS dday unless we lynch scum, so I’d hope we lynch Aranatha. If we do, I expect to be dead, so I doubt I can provide anymore insights. I’ll reread and post my guess on Aranatha’s partner.

Aranatha's vote - there is no Aranatha's vote. I haven't voted - you have. In the first post on D-Day, which is scummy af. I will not vote until we hear from Jalan and Ay.

he'd call me scum as a last defense - I called you scum on D2. I voted against you. It's rich to now claim I'm saying you're scum as a 'defense', after I've built a case against you on the previous day. Who's really on the defense here?

his actions make me thing I'm right - which actions?

because after day 1, I have been pretty sure (unless I’m crazy) that Jalan is town - so you're saying you have a read on Jalan as town and me as scum and you're storming out with a vote first thing on D-Day? With no discussion, no re-reads, no arguments? Even tho you know you could be Insane Finder? Yeah, great move.

NEXT:

View PostRuse, on 07 January 2019 - 01:20 AM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 07 January 2019 - 12:00 AM, said:

At this point I think it’s safe to say that one of you is scum. I’m inclined to believe that Ruse is claiming insane finder. Whether I believe him or not? Not sure.


It would be nice to get at least an “I’m here” from Jalan and Ay.

I’m not claiming insane. I’m just saying I could be. I have no way of knowing for sure.


So you say you don't know for sure but you still open D-Day with a vote. Great.

And for the grand finale:

View PostRuse, on 07 January 2019 - 02:43 PM, said:


You are pushing the assumption that I’m insane, which I am finding more and more unlikely. I think revealing you as scum early allows the rest of town time to reread and make a sound decision. There has been no PUSHING for a lynch, only a vote.

You are pushing the assumption that I’m insane - another thing you made up. I am not assuming you're the insane finder, I'm assuming you're scum. And I have been since D2.

There has been no PUSHING for a lynch, only a vote. - what is a D-Day vote if a not a push for lynch, ffs.

If you just went out and said: I have a read on Aranatha as scum and Jalan as town I'd be inclined to believe you're the Insane Finder whose goal is to give us useful information (obviously, you wouldn't know whether you're insane or not). But you're opening with a vote. You're pushing for a quick lynch on D-Day which can mean one of two things: you're either full of shit or you're a townie playing so bad I almost want to lynch you on principle.

#135 User is offline   Ruse 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 03:35 PM

You are scrambling Aranatha.

#136 User is offline   Khellendros 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 06:28 PM

I didn't see the sign-up email :(
"I think I've made a terrible error of judgement."
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#137 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 09:47 PM

View PostKhellendros, on 07 January 2019 - 06:28 PM, said:

I didn't see the sign-up email :(


Vote Khellendros

You want spoilers?
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#138 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 09:48 PM

It is Day 3. 14 hours and 35 minutes remaining

5 Players still alive: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan, Ruse

3 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.


1 Vote for Aranatha ( Ruse )

Players not voted: Aranatha, Ay Estos, Fanderay, Jalan
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#139 User is offline   Fanderay 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 11:17 PM

View PostRuse, on 07 January 2019 - 03:35 PM, said:

You are scrambling Aranatha.



At the moment I’m inclined to agree with Aranatha. The vote right out the gate is shaky at best.

#140 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 11:50 PM

I'm off to bed, so kinda sucks we still haven't heard from Ay and Jalan.

If I'm sill alive by then, I'll be around in the morning and before timeout.

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