[Rashan]

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 07:33 PM, said:

Remove vote

Vote Ampelas

For Rashan's reasons and my own. He was not on SRs train. Don't see why he was voting Kilava.

you never once spoke about his actual content. You are trying to piggyback on my case here.

Also, with the Denul vote getting more traction and you having a reputation as symp, this would be a great move for either scum to cast additional suspicion on Denul.

[Rashan]

Jalan, on 11 May 2017 - 07:47 PM, said:

Rashan, on 11 May 2017 - 07:43 PM, said:

Both suspected symps have no comments on Ampelas. Am I the only one who DOESN'T have a blindspot for him?

No. I've had an eye on him today as well. Look back at my beginning of day posts. However, look at how Galain is reacting to the pressure on Denul. He's losing it over there.

case in point, Jalan feeling Galain is symping for Denul, cementing Denul's lynch.

[Rashan]

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 08:07 PM, said:

What objections are there to the hammer? I have no qualms.

Not set in the Amp vote. At all, :

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 21 hours and 43 minutes remaining

6 Players still alive: Ampelas, Galain, Kilava, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Rashan

4 votes to lynch, 3 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Nimander Golit ( Merrid )
1 Vote for Kilava ( Ampelas )
1 Vote for Ampelas ( Kilava )

Players not voted: Galain, Nimander Golit, Rashan

[Rashan]

Ampelas, on 11 May 2017 - 08:19 PM, said:

Well, if I am gone after tonight, look at Merrid is my opinion. Seriously.

WHy Merrid now, if you were talking about Kilava before? this is a bit out of left field, post-lynch.

Only new development is Merrid being the "swing vote" as per Galain.

[Rashan]

Ampelas, on 12 May 2017 - 03:16 AM, said:

Ugh, I see why Rashan has a headache. So breaking it down logically:

The first 3 votes on SR were Rash, Nim, and Merrid. These first 3 seem to be unlikely killers, each having to plan on ditching their partner before committing to such a risk.

The second 3 votes on SR were Kilava, Osseric, and Jalan (the last 2 of which are dead). Kilava holds a funny place of either seeing the light and jumping on before looking like he was helping lynch SR or genuinely joining the train seeing SR as scum.

That leaves Galain and myself as the odd ones out still alive (not having voted for SR), together with Kilava comprising the top 3 suspects.

We are sticking with WCS and assuming the Symp is still alive and well, which means most likely there is a 2/3 chance of hitting scum among us, even if there is a 2/3 chance of having an RI CF.

Galain seems to be the most vocally on SR's side day 1, while I am somewhere inbetween and Kilava seems thoroughly unattached. To me, this seems like Kilava is the most likely scum killer (distance) with me as the second pick and Galain as symp.



Now, outside of the box, let us consider that scum figured SR fucked up and/or got frightened by the possibility of a healer/BG duo. If there is some reason that SR could be voted for by the first 3 to the advantage of scum, that ballsy play may be the edge to win by. Nim started the vote on SR, commenting on how SR seemed to want to lynch a healer. Rashan backed this up and added his own, calling the move "daft." Nim then dodged over to Galain before returning to SR. And finally Merrid made the train leave the station.

Nim bouncing around makes me think his stance on SR was not that intentional or strong. Moreover, I still think there is a very very remote possibility he is not who he says he is.

Rashan was very firmly and intentionally after SR, but could that be a cold decision to make him into what he has become: one of the best reasoners on thread with a rock solid alibi.

Finally Merrid, who tussled with Nim all early day 1, is making a move that damns SR, but not for sure. Again, could this be a calculated distancing move? I remember Merrid kind of melting into the background towards the end.

This is not at all how I'm seeing it. Kilava asked SR mean questions and attacked their "jokes" as nonsensical.

You looked at this, and called him "wishy-washy"

[Rashan]

Galain, on 12 May 2017 - 01:11 PM, said:

Rashan, on 12 May 2017 - 01:04 PM, said:

I'm responding to Nim's emphatic "Merrid is BG and I'll insta-vote anyone who says otherwise!" post directly above the one you are quoting.

Since, y'know, I'm the Juggernaut, bitch!!! bodyguard.

Edited, b/c quote needs exclamation marks

There you go. See what Nim has to say about this now.

For me, it is between Amp and Merrid. Amp makes a lot of sense today, and Merrid's activity spiked which can be quite telling.

Does he really though? before Night he's all about Merrid. During the day he's back to harping on Kilava...

[Rashan]

Nimander Golit, on 14 May 2017 - 07:45 AM, said:

Is there any reason to not think Kilava is scum?

Anyone?

I can now answer that. Yes, him pressuring SR when SR was @ L-4 (to the point where SR started making dumb jokes further compromising himself) makes it unlikely, though not impossible.

[Rashan]

Galain, on 14 May 2017 - 08:25 AM, said:

Kilava's progression to finding SR scummy is slow, he looks like he is reading what others are saying and going with the flow.

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 11:46 AM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 09 May 2017 - 11:23 AM, said:

Although I can't argue the logic of Galain's vote, the way he switched gears doesn't sit well with me.

The tone feels off.

There he was, merrily tunneling away on me, then all of a sudden he drops a vote that is completely unrelated to the push he was building towards.

Could it be a case of read evolution? Possibly. New here, so I don't trust it. Looking forward to the opinions of others.

To be fair to Galain, you were the star of the show yesterday, not much else to discuss while doing a readthrough. I quite like the Osseric vote - although it's essentially the same reason as I voted for Galain yesterday.

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 11:47 AM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 08 May 2017 - 11:07 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 08 May 2017 - 11:05 PM, said:

Rashan, on 08 May 2017 - 09:00 PM, said:

SR: umm, second vote on a revealed healer: that's just daft. Not only are you voting on the train that Merrid himself expected to get no traction, you are voting a revealed healer . Like, why?

I was obviously trying to catch the scum attempting a quickhammer!

(by scum I mean the whole scum team)

On d-day, sure. On day 1, I'm not sure I buy this reasoning. I wonder if you aren't retconning a reason after finding the pressure diverting on to you instead.

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 02:45 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 09 May 2017 - 01:31 PM, said:

Kruppe of Darujhistan, on 09 May 2017 - 01:28 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 09 May 2017 - 01:12 PM, said:

Denul, on 08 May 2017 - 02:45 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 08 May 2017 - 02:41 PM, said:

One's a lonely number

Two's the first loser

Two can be as bad as one, it's the loneliest number since the number one - ber.

I wasted valuable time reading the roles and scenario.

Just a quick note, this was what first caught my attention. In a scenario with paired killers, anything saying "pair" or "two" immediately catches the eye. Two (killers) can be as bad as one (killer). Indeed.

Well, ya caught me. I wasn't just responding to the first line of a cheesy Three Dog Night song from the 70s with the second line to a cheesy [/i]Three Dog Night[/i] song from the 70s. I'm scum through-and-through; signaling my master in my second post of day 1. You, sir, are a Mafia genius.

Out of character.

Huh, and here I thought it was Aimee Mann. As signalling cases go, it's not a bad one in terms of the wordplay, I can see what Ampelas is saying. But who would they be signalling?

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 02:55 PM, said:

Ah I see you do later on address this when asked.

Silchas' reasoning after their vote does not strike me as particularly jokey, and that's what made me suspicious of it. And just a little while ago they gave a rundown of various people, pointing fingers in a few different places. None of it's cast iron, but the dude gives me some off vibes.

Not sure on Galain any more. Obviously they've said a lot more today, most of it pretty obvious and along the lines of what was said yesterday. In any case I think I may switch to Silchas later.



Edit: it's not its.

I just see him as slow balling. Nearly getting round to his vote.

Galain, on 14 May 2017 - 08:29 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 09 May 2017 - 06:24 PM, said:

It is Day 1. 8 hours and 8 minutes remaining

10 Players still alive: Ampelas, Denul, Galain, Jalan, Kilava, Merrid, Nimander Golit, Osseric, Rashan, Silchas Ruin

6 votes to lynch, 5 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Osseric ( Galain )
1 Vote for Merrid ( Denul )
2 Votes for Kilava ( Silchas Ruin, Ampelas )
2 Votes for Silchas Ruin ( Rashan, Nimander Golit )
1 Vote for Ampelas ( Merrid )
1 Vote for Galain ( Kilava )

Players not voted: Jalan, Osseric

Silchas voting Kilava is a point in Kilava's favour.

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 09:26 PM, said:

Remove Vote

Yes Ampelas, I was saying that I'm not committed to a vote yet. I'm currently deciding between SR - to make sure they never make a joke again - or on the other hand I'm tempted to test Galain's conviction on Osseric. That kind of single-mindedness is interesting. If Galain is who I think they are, they do have good instincts. Sometimes. And Osseric is currently dead weight. On the third hand, having blinkers for a nonentity is an easy way for scum to look like they're contributing something independently.

Kilava, on 09 May 2017 - 10:36 PM, said:

Alrighty.

Vote Silchas Ruin

But his reasoning is off. His vote is lacking in the conviction that others have. Pretty wishy washy and looks like its resigned.

Here we have Galain ALSO omitting the fact that Kilava was putting all kinds of pressure and questions to SR..... seriously, how am I supposed to choose between him and Amp?

[Nimander Golit]

Rashan, on 16 May 2017 - 03:35 AM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 May 2017 - 07:45 AM, said:

Is there any reason to not think Kilava is scum?

Anyone?

I can now answer that. Yes, him pressuring SR when SR was @ L-4 (to the point where SR started making dumb jokes further compromising himself) makes it unlikely, though not impossible.

Cool. I've also moved away from him.

Amperas?

[Rashan]

So, having finished a re-read:

Ampelas is suspicious as fuck. They've been tiptoeing around Kilava, but they completely ignore the fact that Kilava applied early pressure on SR without voting. Despite producing pretty large breakdowns of Kilava's quotes, the interaction with SR is never brought up. This severely diminishes the merit of their case, and their interpretation of Kilava's play. In addition, they've made half-hearted accusations at Merrid, and subscribe to the idea that Galain is a possible symp

Galain is also suspicious as fuck. Going beyond their passionate defense of SR and their dodgy Day 2 play around the Denul train, they've been making poor cases (latching onto angry Day 1 comments by Merrid, and making the same misrep case on Kilava as Amp). It's almost as if they are trying too hard to be symp. When it comes to SR's lynch they were on their own crusading Osseric train, which isn't a bad place to be, as long as you maintain your hard-headedness about it. They are quite literally the only player who can be symped by virtually anyone, because labelling them as symp is a great place for a killer to hide.

Merrid: mostly all we've heard from Merrid is a lot of anger. There's been no real effort at making cases. They were vote 3 on SR, which speaks in their favour, and vote 3 on Denul, which really doesn't as it looks like a lazy, "easy pickings" "he slipped!" vote. Beyond that we've had Galain make a weak case on them (and with his syp cred that does mkes them look more inno), Kilava PIed them due to the anger, and Amp is on the fence, but more concerned with Kilava.

Kilava: I actually find that Kilava's most clear-cut day was Day 1. Following that they have not really stuck out, spending a lot of time defending (admittedly from BS-sounding cases), and debating mechanics and set-up with Nim. Theyagree with me on Amp (which can be OMGUS-ish), and find Galain to be a symp (which would do him good as a killer). They also seem to meta-clear Merrid.




In terms of pure math and number of connections, I would be voting Galain for a mathematically most likely chance of hitting scum.

In terms of inconsistencies and pure killer behaviour, I would pick Ampelas.

Merrid has not given me enough to work with, I would need some actual analysis and opinion from him before I can make a decision on the merits of his reasoning

Kilava strikes me as least likely scum at this point.

Note for Nim: I have not considered NKs in this, because WIFOM.

[Rashan]

labelling them as symp" should be read as "being labelled as symp"

[Rashan]

Going to bed now. Hoping to hear more from Merrid by morning.

[Nimander Golit]

Rashan, on 16 May 2017 - 03:59 AM, said:

Note for Nim: I have not considered NKs in this, because WIFOM.

I'm actually proud of my NKA, but that is a whole nother world where I come from.

I know enough about NKA to know that I'm not ready to dip my toes in that water here yet, and probably won't be for quite a while due to the whole alt thing.

Besides... unexpected/apparently suboptimal kills are where the NKA bread and butter is at. Not a lot to be gained from trying it in this game.

[Galain]

Just woke up. Rashan you are talking about Kilava pressuring ST AFTER lots of people have propelled him to the top of their list.

[Galain]

Two things, the first is showing Kilava doing what you say to town. Standard play from Kilava.

Kilava, on 08 May 2017 - 04:55 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 08 May 2017 - 04:13 PM, said:

Any town that feels the need to discredit town through such insidious measures are playing directly against their win con.

So anyone who questions or criticises you is scum or working against town, because you're town?

And the rest of us know that for certain because...?

By that same logic, you accusing me of being scummy is scummy and/or acting against town, because, you know, I'm town myself.

I thought there were more

Nimander Golit, on 08 May 2017 - 05:47 PM, said:

Merrid might be stubborn town


The way Silchas slinked onto my wait was terrible.

remove vote

vote Silchas Ruin

Merrid, on 08 May 2017 - 07:15 PM, said:

Osseric, on 08 May 2017 - 07:01 PM, said:

Back and catching up. I for one miss the dragonsecks.

I don't like Nimander's reveal, but without a counter I think we can believe him.

Why is Merrid in a twist over it?

I'm in a twist because I think it was a done in a daft way and at a daft time. NG is essentially saying to the Bodyguard "Fuck however you wanted to play, you're going to play how I want" Also by setting himself up with a proximate immortality ego trip.

We've still got two people to check in

Remove Vote

Vote Ampelas

Lets see some posting. Jalan too.

Rashan, on 08 May 2017 - 08:44 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 08 May 2017 - 05:47 PM, said:

Merrid might be stubborn town


The way Silchas slinked onto my wait was terrible.

remove vote

vote Silchas Ruin

Vote 2 on an aggro train on Day 1 is a more reasonable place to look for scum, I agree.

Rashan, on 08 May 2017 - 09:00 PM, said:

So, interesting things:

Merrid: I can understand his reaction and even the "this'll show him!" residual vote, but the implied passivity (and unwillingness to look beyond Nim) is worrying. IGMEOY.

SR: umm, second vote on a revealed healer: that's just daft. Not only are you voting on the train that Merrid himself expected to get no traction, you are voting a revealed healer . Like, why?

Kilava: not much to say, beyond the fact that they were the first to bring up symp countering. If I put the paranoia hat on, I can see that as scum instructing symp what to do, but that's kinda weak.

I have no read on Denul, which is a bit odd for someone who's posted a bunch, but gave no real opinions that stuck with me.,

Then there's Nim (whom I chose to trust for now and 4 low-posters/no shows.

Leaning towards SR at the moment, but I need to think on this some more.

Kilava, on 08 May 2017 - 10:08 PM, said:

Galain, on 08 May 2017 - 07:23 PM, said:

Lots of posts, keep them coming. I will look forward to reading up in the morning and getting my teeth stuck into the game. I have not read any of it yet but it looks promising.

Vote Galain

Just the kind of thing I would say when I HAVE read all the posts but don't want to interrupt town shouting at each other.

So not as many as I thought before he starts questioning SR.

To be honest day 2 I had Kilava in a better light today but it is still possible he is Merrid's symp.

You make some good observations about Ampelas BUT I think you are affected by painting me scummy.

There are a lot more posts/contradictions you can pull up from me. I don't see why anyone hasn't.

One of Amp/Kilava/Merrid is scum.

The only symp I see is Kilava for Merrid. I do not see Merrid or Amp as a symp.

My top choice for scum is 0 effort antagonist Merrid. He is doing so well to avoid all notice. I think its only me looking that way.

Throught the game he has not made a case. Not made a push but has been on lynch trains.we are over looking him.

That being said I'll read up on what Rash just said about Amp.

[Galain]

Just looking for why I thought Amp was best choice the day Denul was lynched and found this from Kilava.

Kilava, on 11 May 2017 - 07:00 PM, said:

Galain makes a lot of noise today about Jalan and Merrid. If they're symp, then the chances of either of those two being killers drops off somewhat I reckon. Now in their analysis today, Galain also starts off with Denul - says some sensible things about them, but then drops that line of thought in favour of Merrid and Jalan. It's like a soft, "now this person could be scummy, but then again maybe not, what do I know?" Galain also seems to gently nudge thinking toward Denul possibly being a symp, i.e. not someone for town to think about lynching curently.

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 10:06 AM, said:

I was obviously so wrong about SR but that doesn't mean I am off twice in a row

Merrid > Jalan > Ampelas for killers in my book.

99% sure it isn't Rashan, Kilava, and 100% not Nimander or myself obvz.

leaves Denul (he could be SR's partner but his behaviour does not fit)

Is the above re Denul just too blatant? i.e. "he could be SR's partner [psst, Denul, I'm on your side] but his behaviour does not fit".


And what Silchas has to say about Denul:

Silchas Ruin, on 09 May 2017 - 02:43 PM, said:

Denul's non-commitment warrants attention but his play has not been that much different from mine so they're not that supicious to me.

Denul did some early soft pushing away from Silchas before dropping it. Other than that, their play has mostly been non-serious, only becoming serious when someone raises something about them directly. Even the Jalan "convo" at the end of day 1 was made semi-light heartedly, and they don't go about pushing it (or much else) personally today from what I can see.


Vote Denul


I think it is either Denul or Jalan (with Galain as the outside so-blatant-its-actually-genius bet). Jalan has said some things which sway me a bit away from them today, so I'm going with Denul.

Edit: ] to "

So at first he is protecting Merrid/Jalan by naming me symp, and then he is contradicting himself in the same post by saying it could be Jalan or Denul but Omitting Merrid.

[Galain]

Kilava, on 11 May 2017 - 02:36 PM, said:

Alright, I've now got time for a proper reread, so will do that, post thoughts, and vote.

Initially, Galain, if Merrid is scum, then they've played the outraged townie very well. I can see that - maybe - as a symp playing like that, but for now I think there are better targets for scum.

[Galain]

Kilava, on 11 May 2017 - 09:58 AM, said:

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 09:30 AM, said:

So in conclusion after my read up I have Merrid as my top suspect and Jalan as a close second.

That post I quoted with Denul quoting both Silchas and Merrid has me thinking he is the symp. He also never voted for SR.

Vote Merrid

I'm currently more convinced by your last post about Jalan than your various analyses of Merrid. That's an interesting catch on the "cc'ed". I was surprised you voted this way.

[Galain]

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 10:06 AM, said:

Kilava, on 11 May 2017 - 09:58 AM, said:

Galain, on 11 May 2017 - 09:30 AM, said:

So in conclusion after my read up I have Merrid as my top suspect and Jalan as a close second.

That post I quoted with Denul quoting both Silchas and Merrid has me thinking he is the symp. He also never voted for SR.

Vote Merrid

I'm currently more convinced by your last post about Jalan than your various analyses of Merrid. That's an interesting catch on the "cc'ed". I was surprised you voted this way.

Jalan has not as many interactions with people but I think this post has me believing my own tripe.

Denul, on 09 May 2017 - 12:22 AM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 08 May 2017 - 11:43 PM, said:

Merrid, on 08 May 2017 - 11:30 PM, said:

Silchas Ruin, on 08 May 2017 - 11:27 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 08 May 2017 - 11:21 PM, said:

Please tell me that doesn't actually happen on d1.

Only couple of times a year

What do you mean, those are some of our finest moments!

I know! It sounded sad in my head.

The last time we caught Scum on Day 1 (Blend) I got lynched on Day 2 (or close to it) for hammering!

-----

Regarding Symp coaching: Whether the Symp is a rookie or a grizzled vet, Scum doesn't know who they are one way or the other. It's irrelevant.

I was obviously so wrong about SR but that doesn't mean I am off twice in a row

Merrid > Jalan > Ampelas for killers in my book.

99% sure it isn't Rashan, Kilava, and 100% not Nimander or myself obvz.

leaves Denul (he could be SR's partner but his behaviour does not fit)

The reason I ended the day on Ampelas as he was the only one of my reads that was available for lynching.