[Eloth]

Also think you missed Denesmet there gnaw.

[Korlat]

Eloth, on 03 February 2016 - 07:40 PM, said:

Korlat, on 03 February 2016 - 07:31 PM, said:

A bit less than an hour left till timeout, if there's no update in the next 15-30 mins I'll just re-vote Fanderay

Honestly, Fanderay has made it clear he's not going to provide a useful response, I'm not sure there's really anything to be gained waiting.

Yeah, I was just thinking that. I'll

Vote Fanderay

Whoever else is here might as well end it.

[Telas]

You ain't the boss o'me!

[Korlat]

And with that, I'm out, should be back in a few hours.

[Korlat]

Telas, on 03 February 2016 - 07:45 PM, said:

You ain't the boss o'me!

U fokin wot m8?

[Eloth]

Korlat just said he was out and wouldn't be back for hours. Not even a minute later he made a post. Blatant lurker scum:

Remove Vote

Vote Korlat

For real though, I'd kind of like to hear Telas and Shadow's thoughts on the day since they've got back.

[Fanderay]

Kadagar Fant, on 03 February 2016 - 07:18 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 03 February 2016 - 07:00 PM, said:

Korlat, on 03 February 2016 - 06:36 PM, said:

That puts Fanderay at L-2 with about 2 hrs to go. I'd say we leave off any more votes until Fanderay can come back and give a final defense if he wants to. Unless they were the one who said they wouldn't be here till after timeout.

I'm being voted for because of my math comment, but I already explained that.

Otherwise, I just don't give a shit.

The issue I have with that is that you made the math comment, you got called on it but you didn't acknowledge that, then someone else came on and explained it, and you went 'sure, that's totally what I meant, all the rest of you are stupid'.

I think you're forgetting that people have to sleep.

[Gnaw]

It is Day 1. 25 minutes remaining
18 Players still alive: Anomandaris, Apparal Forge, Denesmet, Denul, Eloth, Emurlahn, Fanderay, Gait, Grasp, Hanas, Kadagar Fant, Korlat, Merrid, Olar Ethil, Omtose, Shadow, Telas, Ultama

10 votes to lynch, 9 votes to go to night.

8 Votes for Fanderay ( Anomandaris, Kadagar Fant, Grasp, Denul, Shadow, Omtose, Hanas, Korlat )
2 Votes for Anomandaris ( Fanderay, Merrid )
1 Vote for Korlat ( Eloth )

Players not voted: Apparal Forge, Denesmet, Emurlahn, Gait, Olar Ethil, Telas, Ultama

[Eloth]

Starting to think Denesmet's vote genuinely doesn't count here

[Shadow]

In regards to there being independent faction present. Its not really stated in the OP or anything but its a possibility. It certainly wouldnt be the first time mods deliberately hold back information so we make the wrong assumption. I could be completely mistaken in this

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 03:20 PM, said:

Shadow, on 03 February 2016 - 03:00 PM, said:

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 09:46 AM, said:

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 09:03 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Vote Fanderay


For giving a bullshit reason for voting for me. At least the rest after them are completely blatant about voting because fuck it, why not, but Fandy has to come up with an explanations, because they're too insecure to just vote for the sake of voting on day 1.

Conclusion: They're an independent and therefore everyone can feel safe voting for Fanderay.

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

As tempting as it is to put a vote down on Ano (for what is a fairly decent reason) and resume work, this train is going a teeny tiny bit too fast (compared to the post count) for my taste.

So, for now, I will hold my horses.

You know, just for you posting that and Merrid symping you, I'm leaving my vote on you.

I am sure your symping cases are the cream of the crop and have won you a great many games.
I would like to learn from you, oh mafia god. Please do explain to this lowly one how saying that the train goes too fast for my liking and temporarily practicing restraint instead of just meaninglessly piling on a 4th vote in succession with no discussion whatsoever in between, is symping.

Also, funny that you give me heat for not voting whereas Ano gives me heat for seeing a tiny bit of something in Fanderay's initial vote

And now that we have had Anomandaris' little meltdown, which was funny and functional in seeing someone being nervous, I see no reason to not

vote Anomandaris

so after all that he finally decides to vote anom. Frankly i don't buy the whole nervousness of anoms defence. Like what is he supposed to do? Just say nothing and hope it gets buried. Right cause that's totally a legit way of playing mafia.

as to anomander's defense. Its as spurious as the logic used to indict him in the first place. Not getting involved into a discussion of the history of anti semitism is scummy? And again this aint m&P. yeah its not great defense but it doesn't strike me as OMGUSing, though he is lashing out at pretty much everyone, hoping somethign sticks (standard play really),

which if we look at fanderay, he was the first person to point out there was something fishy in fand's post.

So i have my suspicious about anomandaris (amongst others), but as of now fanderay and hanas to a lesser degree are higher up on the list.

[bold]fanderay[/bold]

edit:vote fanderay

Personally, I think Fanderay's post-vote argument has merit. Anomander's defence of himself was pretty rapid-fire and fairly shaky, especially given there were only, what, three or four votes on him at the time? Nearly all of which were "that's what you get for not wanting to talk about stuff", non-serious votes.
I'll vote Fanderay at a push.
But Merid makes a very good point here:

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 12:05 PM, said:

Aparal Forge, on 03 February 2016 - 11:44 AM, said:

So, we've gone from discussing semantics (racism vs systemic discrimination) via some good ol' symp hunting to trying to identify scum by their defensiveness. What do you all think we're playing, meat and potatoes? But no, someone once told me "[It's] a faction game (...) pay attention at the back!".

However, so far, the pattern eludes me and I'm left with guesswork.

Both you and Ano use this reasoning. It's bullshit to brand jumpiness as scumminess.
It's not about identifying scum. It is identifying juicy roles and see whether or not people are willing to defend those juicy roles.

It's interesting to see exactly how many people turn around on Fanderay after he makes a fairly standard weak Day One argument against someone that garners a few votes. I am willing to swing either way because statistically the odds of either of them being on the opposing faction to mine are acceptably high, and also because it's always better to start night with some information.

Shadow, on 03 February 2016 - 01:48 PM, said:

Good morning folks. Just done my intial read, still kinda tired...

There were like what, 4 consecutive votes on anomandaris before he had a chance to respond? and they were all fast? Thats odd,when people do speed votes it usually leads to poor results. 1-2 votes is enough pressure, anything more then that is hoping for a speed lynch which in m&P and faction is terrible.

Then there's fanderay's comment. Makes sense in m&P, not so much in faction where you're just as likely to hit your own team. So unless hes either an independent or someone with some knowledge of who his teamates are ( therefore its mathematically likely to hit your opposing faction if you know a few of your own) And since unless you're a higher up i doubt you'd know more then 1 or 2 members. Fanderay could very well be a high ranking faction member (assuming my logic holds)

If that isn't the case

If we're going with the follow the leader approach, eloth started the train, could very well be fande symping or fake symping eloth by means of jumping on the bandwagon.

Emurs jumping on the bandwagon strikes me as an eager attempt to get pressure off him

Hanas casually jumping in

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 07:42 AM, said:

Day 1 votes, huh?

Well, I see no reason to not
Vote Anomandaris

casually jumps on the wagon

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 09:03 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Vote Fanderay


For giving a bullshit reason for voting for me. At least the rest after them are completely blatant about voting because fuck it, why not, but Fandy has to come up with an explanations, because they're too insecure to just vote for the sake of voting on day 1.

Conclusion: They're an independent and therefore everyone can feel safe voting for Fanderay.

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

As tempting as it is to put a vote down on Ano (for what is a fairly decent reason) and resume work, this train is going a teeny tiny bit too fast (compared to the post count) for my taste.

So, for now, I will hold my horses.

You know, just for you posting that and Merrid symping you, I'm leaving my vote on you.

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 09:08 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 03 February 2016 - 09:03 AM, said:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:52 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 03 February 2016 - 08:51 AM, said:

Whoa, somebody just panicked.
Are you a faction leader or something?

Panicked? Who? Let's get them!

Is that question for real? I'm the guy who doesn't want to be lynched day 1, same as everyone else, obvs.

However, I don't think 4 consecutive posts in less than 8 minutes is normal behavior.

There's also his weird, pseudo-logical justification for voting for you. Might be a joke, but you know.
And then he disappears.
I'm pretty on the fence for actually lynching Anomandaris, but it might be interesting to see what happens if more pressure is applied.

giving yourself some plausible deniability now that the bandwagon has stalled? Interesting

also as im posting theres an xpost with merrid and a few others ill have to read

I'm not using any plausible deniability. I've got my eye on Fanderay, too, simply because I don't know what faction he's in.
After all, you're wrong about something: I'm not just as likely to hit someone on my own team. The odds are better than 50% that he's not on mine. And the same applies to Anomandaris.
On the other hand, as well as having those odds against him, Anomandaris responded with four posts in about as many minutes, and then suddenly people came out of the woodwork to vote for Fanderay.

fands defense was pretty rapid fire, i won't disagree with you there, but 4 votes piled quite quickly Best to defuse a train before it goes off. Wouldn't be the first time we have a speed lynch in a faction game. As for the math thing, maybe its simply a question of acceptable probability threshold. 60% in day 1 when theres a 40% chance of stabbing myself in the foot is too high for my liking but if theres other players who have lower probability thresholds (anything about 50%) then thats your playstyle.

I already outlined my reasoning for voting fand but if it turns out my assumption was wrong, well it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

also i can see there's some x-posts going on.

[Eloth]

Anyhow, more hanging around seems pointless.

Remove vote

Vote Fanderay

I'd still like to hear Shadow and Telas' thoughts on the latter half of the day.

[Fanderay]

Shadow, on 03 February 2016 - 08:04 PM, said:

fands defense was pretty rapid fire, i won't disagree with you there, but 4 votes piled quite quickly Best to defuse a train before it goes off. Wouldn't be the first time we have a speed lynch in a faction game. As for the math thing, maybe its simply a question of acceptable probability threshold. 60% in day 1 when theres a 40% chance of stabbing myself in the foot is too high for my liking but if theres other players who have lower probability thresholds (anything about 50%) then thats your playstyle.

I already outlined my reasoning for voting fand but if it turns out my assumption was wrong, well it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

also i can see there's some x-posts going on.

This is just for your information, but your reasoning here is idiotic.

This is a simple case of game theory, with the decision tree looking like this:

Lynch/ Who Your team Enemy team
Happens -1 1
Doesn't happen 0 0

Since you have a higher chance of lynching the enemy, your average gain is always higher if you constantly lynch anyone but yourself. Central Banks and governments are using Nash's equilibrium to rule, it doesn't have anything to do with "thresholds".

[Aparal Forge]

So, 10 min remaining?

That makes it time for

vote Fanderay

[Shadow]

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 04:03 PM, said:

Eloth, on 03 February 2016 - 03:56 PM, said:

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 03:35 PM, said:

I don't really see a problem with Merrid deciding to put down a vote: I do strongly think that Anomander's reaction was a bit much given the circumstance. It's certainly very interesting how voting has gone now that some pressure has been put on Anomander, too.

Yeah, if you're sold on Ano over-reacting I guess it makes more sense. It's just a difficult pattern to miss -- Merrid says he won't vote, someone accuses him of symping, and then he votes.

I don't know; I can see a reason why he might have changed his vote, especially given the initial thrust of the argument being the way Ano reacted.
See:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:45 AM, said:

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

As tempting as it is to put a vote down on Ano (for what is a fairly decent reason) and resume work, this train is going a teeny tiny bit too fast (compared to the post count) for my taste.

So, for now, I will hold my horses.

Oh yeah? And what is that fairly decent reason?

Ano attacks him for not even voting, just saying there's a reason for people voting.
This is then immediately followed by:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Vote Fanderay


For giving a bullshit reason for voting for me. At least the rest after them are completely blatant about voting because fuck it, why not, but Fandy has to come up with an explanations, because they're too insecure to just vote for the sake of voting on day 1.

Conclusion: They're an independent and therefore everyone can feel safe voting for Fanderay.

Cutting out the independent joke, he demands to know why someone votes for him, and then immediately after it says that someone else's reason is bullshit and puts a vote on them?
It's really aggro play, and it's a fairly strong reaction given that he just got some reinforcement that people weren't all going to just pile on and lynch him before he could say or do anything.

The last point here i agree is a salient one, and ill likely be taking a closer look at it

Aparal Forge, on 03 February 2016 - 06:59 PM, said:

So, it swings Fanderay's way, huh? I don't have anything against voting for either Fanderay or Anomander, so I'll probably vote Fanderay with the lynch trains as they are. My personal choice would have been Merrid, as they seemed keen to keep us from looking into the lynch train building on Ano. When I actually questioned Merrid about that, Merrid suddenly stopped responding to me (while they were still present on thread). I find that odd.

I'll hold off casting my vote until the vote count is cleared up.

This is something that ought to be followed up upon day 2. Not responding to stuff is basically the ostrich method of solving problems.

There's also omtose with the drive-by voting with little to no reasoning provided.

@fanderay: Oh wow look at you with the game theory shit. Has it occurred to you that not every model can be blindly used. Or that maybe banks and gvt use it because they have no choice but to use it? And don't forget im not ruling over jack shit im making a decision as an individual and depending on the individual's risk appetite they may or may not make decision regardless of the average gain. When dealing with investments risk profiles are a common concept.

Case and point, if there were m&P you want a lynch regardless of circumstance. In faction i can live without it as while getting a lynch is favourable from an information perspective,if I guess wrong, I am now inviting a culture war assuming a 3 way faction. If its merely 2 factions, i'd rather risk letting an enemy grunt living then potentially taking out a stronger ally. This is where things like expected value theorem come in where the severity of an outcome is weighted with the probability of an event.

[Gnaw]

Eloth, on 03 February 2016 - 08:04 PM, said:

Starting to think Denesmet's vote genuinely doesn't count here

If he's voted and I missed it please point it out...

-g

[Fanderay]

Shadow, on 03 February 2016 - 08:24 PM, said:

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 04:03 PM, said:

Eloth, on 03 February 2016 - 03:56 PM, said:

Hanas, on 03 February 2016 - 03:35 PM, said:

I don't really see a problem with Merrid deciding to put down a vote: I do strongly think that Anomander's reaction was a bit much given the circumstance. It's certainly very interesting how voting has gone now that some pressure has been put on Anomander, too.

Yeah, if you're sold on Ano over-reacting I guess it makes more sense. It's just a difficult pattern to miss -- Merrid says he won't vote, someone accuses him of symping, and then he votes.

I don't know; I can see a reason why he might have changed his vote, especially given the initial thrust of the argument being the way Ano reacted.
See:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:45 AM, said:

Merrid, on 03 February 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

As tempting as it is to put a vote down on Ano (for what is a fairly decent reason) and resume work, this train is going a teeny tiny bit too fast (compared to the post count) for my taste.

So, for now, I will hold my horses.

Oh yeah? And what is that fairly decent reason?

Ano attacks him for not even voting, just saying there's a reason for people voting.
This is then immediately followed by:

Anomandaris, on 03 February 2016 - 08:48 AM, said:

Vote Fanderay


For giving a bullshit reason for voting for me. At least the rest after them are completely blatant about voting because fuck it, why not, but Fandy has to come up with an explanations, because they're too insecure to just vote for the sake of voting on day 1.

Conclusion: They're an independent and therefore everyone can feel safe voting for Fanderay.

Cutting out the independent joke, he demands to know why someone votes for him, and then immediately after it says that someone else's reason is bullshit and puts a vote on them?
It's really aggro play, and it's a fairly strong reaction given that he just got some reinforcement that people weren't all going to just pile on and lynch him before he could say or do anything.

The last point here i agree is a salient one, and ill likely be taking a closer look at it

Aparal Forge, on 03 February 2016 - 06:59 PM, said:

So, it swings Fanderay's way, huh? I don't have anything against voting for either Fanderay or Anomander, so I'll probably vote Fanderay with the lynch trains as they are. My personal choice would have been Merrid, as they seemed keen to keep us from looking into the lynch train building on Ano. When I actually questioned Merrid about that, Merrid suddenly stopped responding to me (while they were still present on thread). I find that odd.

I'll hold off casting my vote until the vote count is cleared up.

This is something that ought to be followed up upon day 2. Not responding to stuff is basically the ostrich method of solving problems.

There's also omtose with the drive-by voting with little to no reasoning provided.

@fanderay: Oh wow look at you with the game theory shit. Has it occurred to you that not every model can be blindly used. Or that maybe banks and gvt use it because they have no choice but to use it? And don't forget im not ruling over jack shit im making a decision as an individual and depending on the individual's risk appetite they may or may not make decision regardless of the average gain. When dealing with investments risk profiles are a common concept.

Case and point, if there were m&P you want a lynch regardless of circumstance. In faction i can live without it as while getting a lynch is favourable from an information perspective,if I guess wrong, I am now inviting a culture war assuming a 3 way faction. If its merely 2 factions, i'd rather risk letting an enemy grunt living then potentially taking out a stronger ally. This is where things like expected value theorem come in where the severity of an outcome is weighted with the probability of an event.

So did you just say you're a grunt? Because unless you know you are not someone important in your faction, the expected value theorem still supports my conclusion that any lynch is better than no lynch. Specially if you know who the most important member of your team (leader) is.

[Gnaw]

Aparal Forge, on 03 February 2016 - 08:14 PM, said:

So, 10 min remaining?

That makes it time for

vote Fanderay

Fanderay has been lynched.


We'll need to wait on Shin for night resolution.

[Denesmet]

Gnaw, on 03 February 2016 - 08:27 PM, said:

Eloth, on 03 February 2016 - 08:04 PM, said:

Starting to think Denesmet's vote genuinely doesn't count here

If he's voted and I missed it please point it out...

-g

Not that it makes a difference anymore, but...

Denesmet, on 03 February 2016 - 04:58 PM, said:

I know that it has been said a few times now, but still, this...

Fanderay, on 03 February 2016 - 05:51 AM, said:

Also, it makes mathematical sense for me to lynch anyone except myself, so if a train starts on someone else I'll switch. I'm not choosy at all.

Is what sticks out to me the most. It's not that he has a good chance of lynching someone from the other team, it's that he doesn't give a shit if it's ANYONE else. That just screams independent to me...

vote Fanderay

My vote was after Shadow's.

[Korlat]

Gnaw, on 03 February 2016 - 08:30 PM, said:

Aparal Forge, on 03 February 2016 - 08:14 PM, said:

So, 10 min remaining?

That makes it time for

vote Fanderay

Fanderay has been lynched.


We'll need to wait on Shin for night resolution.

Does CF come with night resolution?

[Path-Shaper]

Oyamada Nobushige slowed his horse. His battle group continued marching through the grove of trees. He looked behind him, but he couldn’t yet see the main Takeda column. They were skirting to the West of the hill his troops had just marched over the top of. His head was still turned away when the whistle of arrows reached his ears. Turning his head he barked the order for his troops to swing left and increase the speed of their march. Arrows continued to fall, from what position they were coming was difficult to determine but somewhere from the North, beyond the trees. Nobushige wasn’t worried – these volleys would have little effectiveness being for all intents and purposes blind shooting with stands of trees to further protect his troops.

His cool demeanor was certainly merited, but sometimes luck plays a part in armed conflict. One of the spearmen close to him suddenly cried out as an arrow pierced his calves. As he pitched forward the head of his spear entered directly into Nobushige’s horse, which reared and threw him. When his aides rushed to Nobushige, they could tell by the angle of his head to his body that they would soon have a new commander.

Fandaray has been lynched. He was Oyamada Nobushige, (EmperorMagus) a battle commander of the Takeda.

Night scene coming next.