[Eloth]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 10:01 PM, said:

And Khell, I did my damnedest to try to game it to force me to scum. I don't think it can be. Maybe you'll have better luck oh Saboteur.

And I don't think I want to trust your imput.

[Ruse]

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:46 PM, said:

I outed myself for a reason. Every night action we use must have a numerical value. Some people have been voting to kill me each night. It must (I think) be changing my alive% in a way we can figure out. We, and when I say we I mean the people good at this math thingamabob (not me) should be able to track the number of people voting to off me. And the way to do that would be with daily vote reveals. Then we can figure out who is lying.

And Ruse, the being wrong is not about the Merrid thing. It was about lashing out at the night voting, you skimmed the thread and not read what was posted. Nothing else.

Edit~fixed a word speileng

Alright, so I apologise for misconstruing the night vote thing. But I did see 3 votes for night already and thought that was a bad idea. But ok, I'm sorry. Can we be friends again?


I for one have not put in an action to kill you. Night 0 I chose Thyrllan, night 1 I chose Merrid, as I said on thread I would.

[Galayn Lord]

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 10:47 PM, said:

Unless you are still new to community of Mafia players here, you must realize some of them will be actively trying to be scum.

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 10:01 PM, said:

And Khell, I did my damnedest to try to game it to force me to scum. I don't think it can be. Maybe you'll have better luck oh Saboteur.

And I don't think I want to trust your imput.

I at least admitted that I tried.

[Ruse]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 11:56 PM, said:

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 10:47 PM, said:

Unless you are still new to community of Mafia players here, you must realize some of them will be actively trying to be scum.

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 10:01 PM, said:

And Khell, I did my damnedest to try to game it to force me to scum. I don't think it can be. Maybe you'll have better luck oh Saboteur.

And I don't think I want to trust your imput.

I at least admitted that I tried.

Why try for the 2 in 12 chance you'll end up being scum, rather than work on behalf of the side of which you have a 10 in 12 chance of belonging to at the end? Seems silly to me



Edit: Initially put response inside quote. Changed percentages to odds.

This post has been edited by Ruse: 05 November 2014 - 11:59 PM

[Galayn Lord]

Korabas, on 05 November 2014 - 10:42 PM, said:

Galayn, did you ever run a calculation on if targeting the same person we lynch does more than random people in reducing the total possible realities.

No. I mostly was trying to see if the numbers would move noticeably without deaths. Even after I killed off a couple, they still remain relatively static. For example, if you remove the dead folks from my day 13 scenario you'll see that the finder isn't locked yet.

I think that figuring out which player number is which alt is going to be very important end game. Because I think we'll see 4 or 5 remaining and all still possibly scum.

[Galayn Lord]

Ruse, on 05 November 2014 - 11:58 PM, said:

Why try for the 2 in 12 chance you'll end up being scum, rather than work on behalf of the side of which you have a 10 in 12 chance of belonging to at the end? Seems silly to me

I don't play well with others?

Serious answer: because I'd rather be scum on purpose than go in to the end game and be surprised by the collapsing wave form moving me from 85% town to 100% scum.

[Eloth]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 11:56 PM, said:

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 10:47 PM, said:

Unless you are still new to community of Mafia players here, you must realize some of them will be actively trying to be scum.

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:49 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 10:01 PM, said:

And Khell, I did my damnedest to try to game it to force me to scum. I don't think it can be. Maybe you'll have better luck oh Saboteur.

And I don't think I want to trust your imput.

I at least admitted that I tried.

Yes you did.....will come back to haunt you I think.

I on the other hand tried to game it the other way. On day two I asked PS if I had to put in a kill action, and was told I didn't have to. I then ask if I should keep quit about it because I thought it may break the game and was told not talk about it because it could break the game if everybody did it. Then serc had to bring it up in thread and ruin it. Now we all have to put in a kill action each night.

We're cool Ruse.

[Galayn Lord]

Path-Shaper, on 29 October 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

I stole the idea for this game from here.

The idea behind this game stems from quantum mechanics (duh). There you can't make fixed predictions, but only say something about the probability with which a particle can be found at a certain point. This probability is the square of the absolute value of the so called Schrödingers Equation, which is a wave equation. That way it is possible for a system to be in more than one state at once, eg. Schrödingers Cat being alive and dead at the same time.

Now, for the purpose of the game, you start out as dead and alive and as town and scum all at once.
The game will contain 1 finder, 2 killers, one of which will only get to kill after the first on is dead, so he will inherit the kill. The rest are RI. At the beginning of the game, there will be multiple realities - one for every possible role distribution.
Each night you submit for every possible role you have - so I want killing and finding orders from each of you every night.

How kills are resolved:
You kill is resolved in every reality, where you have the ability to kill and terminates all realities, in which your target is your fellow killer. Your target loses some of probability to be alive. If everyone targets a single player in the same night, that player is 100% dead, since there is no reality left, in which he would be alive.

How finds are resolved:
According to the probabilities of the found player being town or scum, I will tell you if the player is town or scum.
For example player A is 67% town and 33% scum. Random dice roll gives me 94 --> you will find the player as scum.
If a player is later determined to be the opposite of what you found, all realities in which you are the finder are removed.

How lynches are resolved:
These are resolved the same way findings are resolved, so according to probabilities of being town/scum I will randomly determine, what that player was. Since looking causes the system to be in one state (if you look, the cat is dead or alive), the player will be 100% dead and 100% town/scum. All realities in which the player is not what the lynch showed him to be will be terminated.

In the end we should hopefully end up with just on reality.

I will post an overview over how many percent everyone is dead, alive, town and scum and the number of possible realities at the beginning of each day in the first post of the day and the OP. For that every player will get a letter, so he can see his current status.

Other than that is really just a normal game.

Days will be 36 hours. Night will be instant, so make sure you get provisionals in. The only exception will be Night 0, with which the game starts, which will be 36 hours or until everyone has submitted orders. Yes, the game starts with night, since it's boring if everyone starts out with the same probabilities day one. Night 0 will either start sunday night or monday morning, depending on how much time it takes for me to set stuff up.

Eloth, on 06 November 2014 - 12:10 AM, said:

I on the other hand tried to game it the other way. On day two I asked PS if I had to put in a kill action, and was told I didn't have to. I then ask if I should keep quit about it because I thought it may break the game and was told not talk about it because it could break the game if everybody did it. Then serc had to bring it up in thread and ruin it. Now we all have to put in a kill action each night.

Now that is interesting 'admission'. Seeing as how the unedited OP says you have to submit orders.

[Merrid]

What we need is someone that has a finder result as scum to reveal so we can test their find. Anyone get a scum result as a find?

[Ruse]

If people are unwilling to admit who they're targetting, perhaps they'd be more willing to admit who they're not targetting.

So, for example, has anyone targetted Galayn Lord yet? If the answer is no from everyone/a majority of players, then that would be a good one to communally target (as being more likely to be one of the 100% alive players).

[Eloth]

Galayn Lord, on 06 November 2014 - 12:26 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 29 October 2014 - 08:55 PM, said:

I stole the idea for this game from here.

The idea behind this game stems from quantum mechanics (duh). There you can't make fixed predictions, but only say something about the probability with which a particle can be found at a certain point. This probability is the square of the absolute value of the so called Schrödingers Equation, which is a wave equation. That way it is possible for a system to be in more than one state at once, eg. Schrödingers Cat being alive and dead at the same time.

Now, for the purpose of the game, you start out as dead and alive and as town and scum all at once.
The game will contain 1 finder, 2 killers, one of which will only get to kill after the first on is dead, so he will inherit the kill. The rest are RI. At the beginning of the game, there will be multiple realities - one for every possible role distribution.
Each night you submit for every possible role you have - so I want killing and finding orders from each of you every night.

How kills are resolved:
You kill is resolved in every reality, where you have the ability to kill and terminates all realities, in which your target is your fellow killer. Your target loses some of probability to be alive. If everyone targets a single player in the same night, that player is 100% dead, since there is no reality left, in which he would be alive.

How finds are resolved:
According to the probabilities of the found player being town or scum, I will tell you if the player is town or scum.
For example player A is 67% town and 33% scum. Random dice roll gives me 94 --> you will find the player as scum.
If a player is later determined to be the opposite of what you found, all realities in which you are the finder are removed.

How lynches are resolved:
These are resolved the same way findings are resolved, so according to probabilities of being town/scum I will randomly determine, what that player was. Since looking causes the system to be in one state (if you look, the cat is dead or alive), the player will be 100% dead and 100% town/scum. All realities in which the player is not what the lynch showed him to be will be terminated.

In the end we should hopefully end up with just on reality.

I will post an overview over how many percent everyone is dead, alive, town and scum and the number of possible realities at the beginning of each day in the first post of the day and the OP. For that every player will get a letter, so he can see his current status.

Other than that is really just a normal game.

Days will be 36 hours. Night will be instant, so make sure you get provisionals in. The only exception will be Night 0, with which the game starts, which will be 36 hours or until everyone has submitted orders. Yes, the game starts with night, since it's boring if everyone starts out with the same probabilities day one. Night 0 will either start sunday night or monday morning, depending on how much time it takes for me to set stuff up.

Eloth, on 06 November 2014 - 12:10 AM, said:

I on the other hand tried to game it the other way. On day two I asked PS if I had to put in a kill action, and was told I didn't have to. I then ask if I should keep quit about it because I thought it may break the game and was told not talk about it because it could break the game if everybody did it. Then serc had to bring it up in thread and ruin it. Now we all have to put in a kill action each night.

Now that is interesting 'admission'. Seeing as how the unedited OP says you have to submit orders.

I will now politely request PS to confirm what I said.

[Kalse]

In.

GL, if you were given the software please spread it around. My own request for the mechanics behind the sums was ignored therefore you're either special or bullshitting.

Vote Night

[Kalse]

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:10 PM, said:

You know when I was wrong earlier in the day I had the good graces to admit it.

You sir have no honor and can fuck off.....

...and so you know, and everybody else, I am player 4. So safe to say they didn't collectively target Merrid.

Eloth, what were your NAs on Night 1? We see a -5% and a -2% shift in your chances of being town through them, N0 you said Kill Ruse/Find me.

[Alkend]

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:46 PM, said:

I outed myself for a reason. Every night action we use must have a numerical value. Some people have been voting to kill me each night. It must (I think) be changing my alive% in a way we can figure out. We, and when I say we I mean the people good at this math thingamabob (not me) should be able to track the number of people voting to off me. And the way to do that would be with daily vote reveals. Then we can figure out who is lying.

And Ruse, the being wrong is not about the Merrid thing. It was about lashing out at the night voting, you skimmed the thread and not read what was posted. Nothing else.

Edit~fixed a word speileng

Oh, that would be me. I have twice submitted a kill order AND a find order on you, since I figure that singling you out for a kill makes you more town (scum won't target themselves), as does getting your alignment as town (eliminating realities in which you are scum).

The second kill allowed me to establish with a bit more certainty that you were player 4, because after all, you want to know that it is not just how my dice rolled, but also that the percentage is actually good.

[Alkend]

Korabas, on 05 November 2014 - 07:50 PM, said:

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 07:46 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 07:43 PM, said:

FWIW, my find on Amp returned town.

And no, I'm not sharing who my kill target was or will be. I see zero benefit to sharing that info.

Same here. Though it may/will/probably/might change at some point,so these find results are kinda up in the air in regards to usefulness at the moment.

At this point, I am not sure how useful this information is either. My finds have been Telas and Meanas as town, so far. However keep in mind the random dice roll and we can actually get information from these finds if you look at it the right way.

I guess each find eliminates a possibility where the findee is scum on that day and the previous days and helps push towards a 100% town alignment.

[Ruse]

I'm targetting Ampelas tonight, as as far as I recall they haven't been talked about in terms of being a target yet. I'd like to encourage others to go the same way too, but it seems everyone is happy to play individually, so I'll drop it after this.

[Eloth]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 10:06 AM, said:

Eloth, on 05 November 2014 - 11:10 PM, said:

You know when I was wrong earlier in the day I had the good graces to admit it.

You sir have no honor and can fuck off.....

...and so you know, and everybody else, I am player 4. So safe to say they didn't collectively target Merrid.

Eloth, what were your NAs on Night 1? We see a -5% and a -2% shift in your chances of being town through them, N0 you said Kill Ruse/Find me.

My actions for night two were the same. I was player six the first night. I had to put a kill order in at that the last minute so I just chose to repeat Ruse. And you did come up town again.

[Eloth]

Ruse, on 06 November 2014 - 10:57 AM, said:

I'm targetting Ampelas tonight, as as far as I recall they haven't been talked about in terms of being a target yet. I'd like to encourage others to go the same way too, but it seems everyone is happy to play individually, so I'll drop it after this.

I think we should work together to spreed out the Kill actions. This is why. When all those people targeted me they did shift my town percentage to more town. But they also shifted me to a higher percentage of dead. Now my thought is that when a kill order is placed a dice roll happens against that targets alive/dead percentages. Like right now if a scummy player targets me they have close to a fifty percent chance to succeed. I think We need to keep those alive numbers as high as possible. In other words we need to spreed out the kill actions.

My two cents.

[Galayn Lord]

Kalse, on 06 November 2014 - 09:57 AM, said:

GL, if you were given the software please spread it around. My own request for the mechanics behind the sums was ignored therefore you're either special or bullshitting.

I like being special, so I'll go with that.

[Galayn Lord]

Eloth, on 06 November 2014 - 01:02 PM, said:

I think we should work together to spreed out the Kill actions. This is why. When all those people targeted me they did shift my town percentage to more town. But they also shifted me to a higher percentage of dead. Now my thought is that when a kill order is placed a dice roll happens against that targets alive/dead percentages. Like right now if a scummy player targets me they have close to a fifty percent chance to succeed. I think We need to keep those alive numbers as high as possible. In other words we need to spreed out the kill actions.

My two cents.

Doesn't work that way. I couldn't get a dramatic shift in life/death percentage without having several people all target the same player the same night. The best I can figure out is that you're alive in X% of the realities. However, I could easily be wrong about that part. That game is on another computer. I'll check when I get there.