[Gnaw]

And before somebody else says it:

I'm obnoxiouser, older, and fartier.

But you're the claimed finder not I.

[Vengeance]

It is now Day 4

7 players alive: A Demon Llama, Gnaw, Gust Hubb, HiddenOne, Messremb, Obdigore, The unfound

4 votes to lynch 4 votes for night

29 hours and 35 minutes left in the day.

1 vote for obdigore (Gnaw)

[Gnaw]

C'mon Obdi, inquiring minds want to know.

[Messremb]

Gnaw, on 07 October 2014 - 02:23 PM, said:

C'mon Obdi, inquiring minds want to know.

And the just plain nosey

[HiddenOne]

You know he's not even gonna show up for hours just to be contrary

[Messremb]

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 02:40 PM, said:

You know he's not even gonna show up for hours just to be contrary

No, surely he wouldn't do a thing like that, deliberately weasting hours upon hours of towns time to find the killer in?

[Gnaw]

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 02:40 PM, said:

You know he's not even gonna show up for hours just to be contrary

See Obdi. Now you've got a choice. Be true to your nature and make us wait 16 hours or prove HO right.

[HiddenOne]

Isn't that the same thing there?

[HiddenOne]

How are we going to play this?

[HiddenOne]

I hate to wait all day on Obdi. I kind of believe Mess, but we still don't know if his finds are correct.

[Gnaw]

I'm the other way. less inclined to believe Mess.

[Messremb]

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 02:48 PM, said:

I hate to wait all day on Obdi. I kind of believe Mess, but we still don't know if his finds are correct.

Agreed, I'm thinking statistically;

If I'm insane there's a 50/50 chance of town/scum

1 result:
0.50 1 x town
0.50 1 x scum

2 results
0.25 2 x town
0.50 1 x town 1 x scum
0.25 2 x scum

3 results
0.125 3 x town
0.375 2 x town 1 x scum
0.375 2 x scum 1 x town
0.125 3 x scum

So there's a 1 in 8 chance of me being insane and having had 3 town results in a row. I think I can be pretty sure that I'm not insane, the next one will prove it though; 0.0625 chance. Assuming I don't find scum that is.

Obdi should have the same thoughts depending on his results, if he has another scum find then he's likely not insane, if he has a town find then he is statistically more likely to be insane - however this needs to be taken into account with the fact he may actually have found scum.

Edit: formatting and misplaced town should have been scum, italicised to show where edited without cocking up the post.

This post has been edited by Messremb: 07 October 2014 - 02:59 PM

[Gnaw]

Obdi needs to get in gear.

[The Unfound]

Messremb, on 07 October 2014 - 02:56 PM, said:

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 02:48 PM, said:

I hate to wait all day on Obdi. I kind of believe Mess, but we still don't know if his finds are correct.

Agreed, I'm thinking statistically;

If I'm insane there's a 50/50 chance of town/scum

1 result:
0.50 1 x town
0.50 1 x scum

2 results
0.25 2 x town
0.50 1 x town 1 x scum
0.25 2 x scum

3 results
0.125 3 x town
0.375 2 x town 1 x scum
0.375 2 x scum 1 x town
0.125 3 x scum

So there's a 1 in 8 chance of me being insane and having had 3 town results in a row. I think I can be pretty sure that I'm not insane, the next one will prove it though; 0.0625 chance. Assuming I don't find scum that is.

Obdi should have the same thoughts depending on his results, if he has another scum find then he's likely not insane, if he has a town find then he is statistically more likely to be insane - however this needs to be taken into account with the fact he may actually have found scum.

Edit: formatting and misplaced town should have been scum, italicised to show where edited without cocking up the post.

Wait....what?? The results are randomized indivially. So each separate find is 50/50. That percentage never changes. It doesnt matter what the person you are finding actually is. Am I missing something here?

[The Unfound]

Nevermind the neurons just kicked in.

[Messremb]

The Unfound, on 07 October 2014 - 03:04 PM, said:

Messremb, on 07 October 2014 - 02:56 PM, said:

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 02:48 PM, said:

I hate to wait all day on Obdi. I kind of believe Mess, but we still don't know if his finds are correct.

Agreed, I'm thinking statistically;

If I'm insane there's a 50/50 chance of town/scum

1 result:
0.50 1 x town
0.50 1 x scum

2 results
0.25 2 x town
0.50 1 x town 1 x scum
0.25 2 x scum

3 results
0.125 3 x town
0.375 2 x town 1 x scum
0.375 2 x scum 1 x town
0.125 3 x scum

So there's a 1 in 8 chance of me being insane and having had 3 town results in a row. I think I can be pretty sure that I'm not insane, the next one will prove it though; 0.0625 chance. Assuming I don't find scum that is.

Obdi should have the same thoughts depending on his results, if he has another scum find then he's likely not insane, if he has a town find then he is statistically more likely to be insane - however this needs to be taken into account with the fact he may actually have found scum.

Edit: formatting and misplaced town should have been scum, italicised to show where edited without cocking up the post.

Wait....what?? The results are randomized indivially. So each separate find is 50/50. That percentage never changes. It doesnt matter what the person you are finding actually is. Am I missing something here?

You're missing some statistics education.

[Messremb]

Obdigore, on 03 October 2014 - 03:07 PM, said:

Messremb, on 03 October 2014 - 01:23 PM, said:

Obdi, out of interest, why did you pick me for Night 1?

For reasons I'm not going to discuss on thread at this juncture.

Something else for Obdi;

Explain.

[HiddenOne]

Well, let me go ahead and add to the richness of your field of entries.

I am the other finder.

Day 1 Khell - Town (confirmed w/ CF)
Day 2 GH - Town
Day 3 Mess - Town


Recalculate please, and let us proceed

[Messremb]

HiddenOne, on 07 October 2014 - 03:32 PM, said:

Well, let me go ahead and add to the richness of your field of entries.

I am the other finder.

Day 1 Khell - Town (confirmed w/ CF)
Day 2 GH - Town
Day 3 Mess - Town


Recalculate please, and let us proceed

Well hello, this is either the real symp or one of you and I are insane. Equal chances of each, 1 in 8 of both of us haing town for all 3.

So who do we have?
Obdi: Messremb, Gust, unknown.
Me: Khell, Gust, Gnaw.
HO: Khell, Gust, Messremb

Those who have claimed to be found 2 (or 3) times with the same result struck through.

Khell is dead so is a safe bet to make a claim on.

Assuming all reveals are believed to be genuine, Gust, Khell and I are the most thoroughly probed individuals town.

If one of us is lying it opens up the posibilities a little more.

I could be insane and wrong on Gnaw. You could be insane but still right on me (backed up by Obdis result.)

I want to see Obdis results before I take this any further.



However I think you're taking a risk here having run the odds. I think you're the killer HO. Having said that however, what is it with you both finding me?

[Gnaw]

Messremb, on 07 October 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

the most thoroughly probed individuals

Having said that however, what is it with you both finding me?

They know you like being probed?



OBDI!!!