D, on 20 October 2014 - 09:43 AM, said:
Andorion, on 20 October 2014 - 01:04 AM, said:
D, on 19 October 2014 - 08:24 PM, said:
Andorion, on 18 October 2014 - 02:12 AM, said:
This in turn brings up a very important point, which is the Seanchan numbers. The Seanchan general Miraj said he could muster around 45000 including local soldiers, and since Ebou Dhar is the front and Tarabon is a rear area, I assume that he has around that many again in reserve at most. So the Seanchan Forerunner army can have around 80-90000 soldiers. But what is alarming is the recalling of a moderate rebellion, where 30000 died and '50 times that' became slaves. Thats 1.5 million slaves, and that implies a truly massive population. So if the Seanchan forerunners by which I mean vanguard can have 90000, and the invasion has been planned for two generations, the actual army could number in over a million.Though transporting and maintaining an army that large, would be a logistical nightmare. I mean the only real-world historical precedent is the Second World War in the Eastern Front, and even that did not go smoothly. This is definitely something to ponder over.
Well, Seanchan's about 8-10 times the size of the Westlands/'Randland' if you look at it on a map. My estimate for the population of the Westlands is somewhere between 20 and 30 million (170,000 mustered at the Battle of Shining Walls, assume this is between 0.5 and 1% of the population and you get a total between 34 and 17 million; not good reasoning, but works for me). If we assume the average population density of Seanchan is similar to the Westlands, then we get a total population of around 200 million. A million plus military is very plausible with a population fo this size and a force of two million is not beyond logistical bounds.
A 2 million estimate military strength would certainly be very possible. My point about the logistics was that its one thing to have such a large force in your homeland, distributed in garrisons and small forces, but when you are invading another continent, then you have to stuf them into ships and sail them across. this is where logistics under the constraint of the low technology that is present in the books becomes a factor.
The technology is 'low' not it's not Dark Age. The Seanchan probably have Ming Chinese era level technology minus gunpowder and they also have
damane, which are used en masse for assist things like mining (can be used to locate veins and as 'dynamite') and transport (the Seanchan ships can cross the Aryth Ocean unusually fast by co-opting
damane to artificially provide favourable winds. Assuming the Seanchan are systematic in detecting potential damane, there are probably a couple of hundred thousand of them based on Jordan's stating that only 1 in a 100 people inherently have the ability to channel. So that's a lot of power that can be put to use driving the Seanchan war economy. Moreover, the Seanchan have been preparing this fleet for the last couple of generations (since the end of the Consolidation). Given these advantages, I don't see it as unrealistic that the Seanchan can't get at least a million troops plus at least a million support across the Aryth Ocean, if not more. Kublai Kahn was able to launch 130,000 men against Japan in the 13th century, and he didn't have
damane (if he did, the weather wouldn't have been such an issue ) (
http://en.wikipedia....asions_of_Japan ).
Morgoth, on 20 October 2014 - 10:05 AM, said:
An army of a milion men across oceans would be all but impossible today.
They could have spent 10 generations planning the invasion and it would still not have been anything but impossible. Read about the the 4th crusade, or the Ottoman invasion of Malta, or any number of sizeable naval invasions during the medieval periode to see why it's not doable.
Illuyankas, on 20 October 2014 - 10:08 AM, said:
Morgoth, on 20 October 2014 - 11:27 AM, said:
The issue isn't even the ability to create favourable traditions for sailing as you do with the magic thing. Ships simply didn't have much in the way of carrying capacity until, well maybe towards the end of the 19th century.
D, on 20 October 2014 - 11:48 AM, said:
Morgoth, on 20 October 2014 - 10:05 AM, said:
An army of a milion men across oceans would be all but impossible today.
Wait, so the Pacific Arena of WWII just didn't happen?
Morgoth, on 20 October 2014 - 12:00 PM, said:
It certainly did. It required the entire industrial output of several nations and did at no point field an invading army of 1 million men, let alone that number in a naval invasion.
Japan had more than a million soldiers in China all in all I believe. Something like 5 or 6 million throughout the empire at its peak. They invaded, established themselves, stationed soldiers and moved on. You know, just like how the Seanchan would possibly be capable of housing an army of that size throughout their empire. Quite unlike the challenge of 1) sending an invading army of a million across an ocean, and 2 ) provide the necessary supplies for said army once they reached their destination.
All very pertinent points and this was roughly the direction I was thinking towards. Now the case of an army this large raises several problems:
1. As has been stated before, the carrying capacity of the ships. Now let us take for granted that thanks to magic you can build really large ships using magically reinforced wood and so on. Robert Reddicks first book is quite instructive in this respect. But increasing the size of the ship is actually a force multiplier. You increase the size of the ship, you increase the crew, you increase the amount of supplies and victuals necessary to carry, which again take up hold space. In case of a troop transport, this situation would be further escalated by applying the same principle to the soldiers. Plus the Seanchan bring with them large numbers of animals which again have their own special diet and special people to take care of them. So the actual number of the ships would be huge.
2. The next issue is speed. Now let us again admit that Damane magic would allow copious wind channelling which would vastly speed up the voyage. But how fast? Faster than steamships? Faster than the type of ships operational during world war 2? Highly unlikely, because if that was the case they would not need Damane magic to stop ships, they could run down practically anything afloat. But they do apply Damane magic. Again there is the issue of different types of ships. Warships would be sleek hulled and fast, but transports, would intrinsically be slower. The Damane on transports would need to apply a different amount of power to keep their ships with the fleet. Which brings us to our next point, co-ordination.
3. A fleet of ships numbering in the thousands, even tens of thousands, would simply never be controlled by simple visual aids like flag signals. To take examples from our world, the one major fleet invasion launched in the age of sail was the Spanish Armada and we all know how that fared. Even in the First World War, with the aid of radio communication, admirals repeatedly bungled co-ordinating squarons of ships andthey were dealing with numbers in the tens, not ten thousands. Read a history of Jutland and the lack of proper communication will just leap out at you. In the Second World War, during the battle for Leyte Gulf the Japanese bungled up their communications hopelessly. Both of these examples are of trained proffessional navies having highly skilled staff. Now apply this to the Seanchan. They don't have instaneous communication. Its still by messneger. Now I admit they have flying creatures, but their fleet isn't in one tight formation. It can't be. Its too big. Its wouldn't fit into most of the harbours. So how do you co-ordinate a force like that? The creatures will still need some time to fly around, and by the time they get back the situations changed. Actually events after book 2 sunstantiate this line of reasoning. In book 2 Rand and co. destroy the Seanchan force, which wasn't that strong, and blow up a few ships. Certainly not the entire Forerunner force. It took them pretty long to recover from that. This suggests they submit to the same hindrances of communications as the rest of the World except Rand and the Aes Sedai who can travel
4. Then there is Imperial practicability. We know the Seanchan have revolts. We know the armed forces role is to suppress them So in an empire big enough to need a 2 million, even one million strong army, you do not just ship 50% or 75%, let alone the entire army to a foreign shore. In case of even the tiniest flare up, you are naked.
Thats why I find the numbers implausible.
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