[Tattersail_]

Eloth does not seem to be around, but looks to know ALOT about the game. More so than any townie should really. To me he is holding out a sing that says I am scum. How to prove it though? My prediction is, he will be lynched today.

[Trull's son]

You might be right. Khell is going hard for Eloth right now, and seems very convincing.

[Messremb]

Urgh, probably best I was lynchen as I'm not horrifically pissed after a damned good result at our audit. Would bound to have been saying something stupid.

Hic.

Yeah, like sober posting is ever so coherent...

So, I'll just go and hide under the drunken blanket....

[Path-Shaper]

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 01:36 PM, said:

3 votes Denul: Monok Ochem, Bek Okhan, Shadow
9 votes Serc: Alkend, Korabas, Lock, Denul, Galayn Lord, Okral Lom, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Eloth (bek was around to vote right after)
1 vote Okral Lom: Serc

1 vote Shadow: Tiamatha
1 vote Denul: Shadow
8 votes Ruse: Galayn Lord, Alkend, Lock, Denul, Korabas, Okral Lom, Kessobahn, Bek Okhan

7 votes Korabas: Ampelas, Galayn Lord, Bek Okhan, Kessobahn, Okral Lom, Lock, Tiam (I was around to vote right after)
2 votes Shadow: Korabas

One vote Denul: Shadow
Six votes Rikkter: Lock, Eloth, Tiam, Okral Lom, Ampelas, Denul
One vote Tiam: Bek Okhan

---

You, me, Okral and Bek have pretty much been on every lynch so far. Shadow hasn't been on any winning lynch trains yet. Eloth, GL and Tiam are a mix.

IMO, the most likely trend is for scum to not be all on or all off the winning lynch trains, but that's really approximate/tenuous...

Lock, on 24 April 2014 - 02:22 PM, said:

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 01:36 PM, said:

3 votes Denul: Monok Ochem, Bek Okhan, Shadow
9 votes Serc: Alkend, Korabas, Lock, Denul, Galayn Lord, Okral Lom, Tiamatha, Ampelas, Eloth (bek was around to vote right after)
1 vote Okral Lom: Serc

1 vote Shadow: Tiamatha
1 vote Denul: Shadow
8 votes Ruse: Galayn Lord, Alkend, Lock, Denul, Korabas, Okral Lom, Kessobahn, Bek Okhan

7 votes Korabas: Ampelas, Galayn Lord, Bek Okhan, Kessobahn, Okral Lom, Lock, Tiam (I was around to vote right after)
2 votes Shadow: Korabas

One vote Denul: Shadow
Six votes Rikkter: Lock, Eloth, Tiam, Okral Lom, Ampelas, Denul
One vote Tiam: Bek Okhan

---

You, me, Okral and Bek have pretty much been on every lynch so far. Shadow hasn't been on any winning lynch trains yet. Eloth, GL and Tiam are a mix.

IMO, the most likely trend is for scum to not be all on or all off the winning lynch trains, but that's really approximate/tenuous...

It is tenuous, but then a lot of things we've considered this game have been, sigh.

I want to go through Eloth's posts, see if there's anyone he's been careful to avoid interacting with and/or pursuing. But I think it has to be either Shadow or Tiam for the lynch today.

Lock, on 24 April 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

I think you're going to get quite a bit of attention today. How do you want to play it? I can try and steer towards Tiam or Shadow but I think it's getting a bit blatant (at least to me) that I've been ignoring you as a candidate the whole game. A lover reveal, if it comes down to it, would not necessarily clear either of us - in fact, it might actually force the lynch as they seek to find out if we're town or scum lovers.

I just don't want them spending precious hours looking at you again when I know it's a waste of time.

Lock, on 24 April 2014 - 04:45 PM, said:

Perhaps the best-worst route is to move people on to suspecting that you are a symp, and then try to lynch your 'master'.

[Path-Shaper]

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 05:50 PM, said:

Okral is already touting the idea that I'm a symp. That is exactly what we need - let them keep me alive while they vote my master, as long as said master is one we think should be lynched. It might even make Kenshiro suspicious that I really am his symp and keep him from NK'ing me.

Likewise, this suspicion on you is good as long as it doesn't go so far as actually lynching you. Hopefully Kenshiro won't NK you either. Both of us two being alive at d-day is the ultimate scenario for town.

Conversely, yeah a lover reveal could be dismissed as possible scum lovers fake-revealing. Hopefully we can argue that scum lovers would make no sense based on the theme. The timing will make a lot of difference - if we reveal before d-day than it looks good for us, as scum would not likely risk fake-revealing themselves if town could still lynch someone else and then later turn on the reveal and win. Revealing on d-day though, might be seen as a ballsy scum move since town doesn't get a chance to miss.

Still, no matter what happens I think we are best to reveal if things get desperate for us. It's better than letting one of us get lynched.

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 05:52 PM, said:

Eloth made the big case on Ampelas yesterday, and then Amp got NK'd immediately after. That makes me less suspicious of Eloth, overall.

Lock, on 24 April 2014 - 06:10 PM, said:

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 05:52 PM, said:

Eloth made the big case on Ampelas yesterday, and then Amp got NK'd immediately after. That makes me less suspicious of Eloth, overall.

I don't see Eloth as Kenshiro. If Eloth is anything other than town, I can only see some sort of symp. It may well be that Eloth's and your comments about Ampelas both came from townies but nonetheless made Kenshiro choose them for the NK, but I wanted to push Eloth nonetheless to see what sort of reaction they might have. The immediate OMGUS 'Lock is suspicious' has me wary.

[Path-Shaper]

ST's gettin' it here.

Okral Lom, on 25 April 2014 - 02:43 AM, said:

So Denul is either scum or the last remaining Warlord. He argues his own case too hard to be RI. Plus there's this:

Denul, on 24 April 2014 - 10:18 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 24 April 2014 - 04:28 PM, said:

What I meant was that previously I had been thinking about Ampelas and Denul as necessarily having the same role by virtue of how they backed each other. However when I went back to look at the posts involved, it wasn't quite as clear to me that this was actually what was going on. As you say, I hadn't considered that Denul could have picked up the implication of Ampelas' post and proceeded to symp him.

I do agree that Denul's behaviour taken at face value has seemed reasonable. However, Tiamatha's point about deflection holds some merit with me - Denul started talking about warlord symps, and this essentially cast doubt on the validity of any investigation into symp connections. I know I stopped looking for that sort of thing as closely once that became the dominant paradigm I was viewing the game through. (Or rather, I didn't really talk about those connections on thread for fear of giving scum unnecessary hints).

Isn't it not a deflection if I was right though? At this point, with so many RI CFs it seems pretty unlikely, but I genuinely believed that that was the right approach at the time. Imagine if it had been the case and we'd followed a warlord's follower to their master and lynched a warlord from it. Then we'd all feel pretty dumb!

That's pretty heavy hinting there. I don't think an RI does that at this stage.


So the question is, what do I do about it? I mean, I have no idea whether the powers of a warlord are worth the possibility that I might be protecting scum. They certainly haven't seemed all that effectual so far...

[Path-Shaper]

If town can lynch Tiam, that's good but he's going to CF as RI, so all they will know is that the game isn't over yet.

Lock and Denul, can the lovers bring it home? I wonder, because Vengy hasn't exactly helped town out this game, and I can see him as a likely lynch candidate tomorrow (or even today).

[Path-Shaper]

Of course, this is Eloth's kill list

New list, just to be safe...

Day 5 Provisional Kills; move to next target if lynched:

Denul
Bek Okhan
Okral Lom
Shadow
Tiamatha
Lock

[Path-Shaper]

Eloth, on 25 April 2014 - 05:23 AM, said:

Oh yeah and

kill lock, if he's lynched kill denul

That dude is going down for starting to play too well or too much, but either way... I hope I can use his death and silence to my benefit

[Tattersail_]

Path-Shaper, on 25 April 2014 - 03:16 AM, said:

Of course, this is Eloth's kill list

New list, just to be safe...

Day 5 Provisional Kills; move to next target if lynched:

Denul
Bek Okhan
Okral Lom
Shadow
Tiamatha
Lock

He will change this.

[Tattersail_]

Path-Shaper, on 25 April 2014 - 05:29 AM, said:

Eloth, on 25 April 2014 - 05:23 AM, said:

Oh yeah and

kill lock, if he's lynched kill denul

That dude is going down for starting to play too well or too much, but either way... I hope I can use his death and silence to my benefit

Ah see. I didn't read the post below.

He may change this again.

[Tattersail_]

Oh no! Khell, don't die!

[Khellendros]

Considering I was alive till night 5, I am dreading finding out just how wrong I was...

[Khellendros]

Goddamn it. I've practically said the worst Eloth can be is a symp. And GL...great play by Dolmen, there is just nothing to pin on them.

[Khellendros]

Ugh. So did Eloth miss Korabas' reveal or did they deliberately not kill them? I counted Eloth among the potentials but them went and focused on Rikkter and Shadow...

[Messremb]

Khellendros, on 25 April 2014 - 11:10 AM, said:

Ugh. So did Eloth miss Korabas' reveal or did they deliberately not kill them? I counted Eloth among the potentials but them went and focused on Rikkter and Shadow...

I slipped up there with Eloth too - it was only the first day they posted in the relevant timeframe but I didn't take into account when someone commented on someone else moving timezones that it was them. Eloth was picked up in Shadows list though, hopefully someone will look back at it.

Agreed on great game from Dolmen so far

[Path-Shaper]

Yes, good game Dolmen so far...

Tiamatha, on 25 April 2014 - 11:29 AM, said:

FUCKING CRINGE GL

"one of our symps"

I'll be stonewall shocked if someone doesn't pick up on that slip, Jesus man you've played a virtually flawless game then that blatant 'I'm scum' statement.

I noticed it.

[Path-Shaper]

Khellendros, on 25 April 2014 - 11:10 AM, said:

Ugh. So did Eloth miss Korabas' reveal or did they deliberately not kill them? I counted Eloth among the potentials but them went and focused on Rikkter and Shadow...

Yes, Eloth basically said "I aint touching that with a 10 foot pole"

He was here, and could have changed if he'd wanted, but he was rightfully suspicious.

[Path-Shaper]

Galayn Lord, on 25 April 2014 - 07:08 AM, said:

Can't see why I'm linked to Eloth when the same reasoning links me to players like Bek Okhan, Rikkter and Ampelas. Even Alkend and I had no dialogue though that counts far less. I've atleast had some dialogue with Eloth and honestly they're high on my list as likely scum this day due to the behaviour switch and further unwarranted talk on warlords. Cannot see how our shared name ommission makes me linked to Eloth and then Shadow. Its not sound reasoning to me.

This stood out to me too, but I wonder if it would have if I was in the game.

[Path-Shaper]

Tiamatha, on 25 April 2014 - 11:51 AM, said:

wait wait, calm down, I reread it twice, it reads now like he was asking if a town symp died.

phew, hopefully shadow or denul misinterprets it like I temporarily did and we jump.all.over them

Hmm, I don't know. That wording was rather awkward IMO.