[Werthead]

The Russians are seething about the west Zaporizhzhia front, which has collapsed almost out of the blue. Ukraine has advanced along the Kakhovka Reservoir shoreline across a front some 20km wide, encircled one large Russian formation and pushed back others. The stress points at Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, Plavni, Pavlivka, and Novoyakovlivka are all highly vulnerable due to a lack of reinforcement in this sector. If Ukraine can take these, they can advance on Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Kamenske, reversing most, if not all, of the gains Russia has made on this front in around two years, maybe more. Extremely fanciful, but if Ukraine can then take Vasylivka, the entire front starts to look very brittle.

It won't come to that, of course. Ukraine has a key problem in not being able to exploit these breakthroughs when they happen, they usually run out of steam after a successful assault that ultimately gets rolled back again within ~18 months. But gaining 18 months on any front is usually very worthwhile. Combined with the offensive action further east, these combined actions should push Russian forces significantly further away from Zaporizhzhia city, the biggest prize Russia wants to take (alongside the Donbas) before ending the war.

On the Hulyaipole front in eastern Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine continues to make solid gains. Russia appears to only have two airborne regiments available to shore up this front, whilst Ukraine has more forces moving, Russia seems to have chosen to accept losses of territory here to continue to focus on the Pokrovsk and Lyman fronts.

Some Russian bloggers lamenting that even with the apparent closing of the Pokrovsk pocket (still not completed yet though, and this one has a way of staying alive), to complete the conquest of Donbas may take mobilising another half-million troops, and the Kremlin does not seem willing to countenance that.

Unconfirmed claims that Ukrainian and French troops and trainers are present in northern Benin, advising local Tuareg groups on operations inside Niger. The Russian-backed Niger military junta is unhappy.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 February 2026 - 07:26 PM

[Mentalist]

Yeah, if they can push the orcs out of Stepnohirs'k and back S of the Yanchekrak in Kam'yans'ke, that'd be a feat.
The Geneva talks are over. As usual, everyone says "productive, but no details".

[Werthead]

Interesting interview with Zaluzhnyi. He tries to be very polite, but he pins the blame for the failure of the 2023 counter-offensive on the decision to split the operation across three fronts rather than focusing everything on one substantial breakthrough on the Zaporizhzhia front, and used too many green and very old troops.

I'm going to be honest, I think the Russian defences were so deep on that sector that there's not a lot the Ukrainians could have done with their 2023 equipment park. Perhaps now, with more sophisticated mine-removing equipment, that operation could have been successful. But then, the Russians would also have the technological advantages that have evolved since then, so maybe not.

Interesting that AP is raising Zaluzhnyi's profile, with rumours of Zelensky calling a surprise spring election circling. Zaluzhnyi either matches or slightly exceeds Zelensky in polling as a possible presidential candidate.

Anyway, on the Hulyaipole front in eastern Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainians have established firm control over Verbove and are advancing on Kalynivske and Berezove, where heavy Russian forces may be dug in. Ukraine is also making steady progress south from Vyshneve. Heavy combat in this area. Both pro-Russian and Ukrainian sources have assessed Ukrainian entry to Yehorivka and Pryvillia but others are sceptical, suggesting recon groups only. This may be one of the least-filmed Ukrainian offensives of the war, with limited video or geolocation evidence.

Belgorod is drawing up plans to evacuate multiple settlements because the sewage systems have stopped working in the face of Ukrainian attacks on the oblast's electricity grid. More than 250 portable toilets have already been delivered to the region, but thousands would likely be needed to take the strain (so to speak).

Russia has tried to reinforce its small holding on the Sumy Oblast border, resulting in heavy combat operations. Five Russian soldiers surrendered to the 158th Mechanized Brigade during one firefight. Ukraine has noted a growing trend in the last year or so of Russian soldiers surrendering more easily than previously.

Russian mil-blogger Golman has said that Russian forces on the front are complaining about a lack of equipment donated by civilians at home. Russia has been disproportionately reliant on friends and family at home crowdfunding armour, radios, cold weather gear etc, but ballooning prices mean such efforts don't go as far as they did or simply don't get off the ground, with people diverting funds to their own needs.

As with last winter, Donetsk City has seen protests as water supplies freeze and widespread power outages take place.

[Mentalist]

Yeah, I'm not really buying the " if we had the 5 extra brigades, we would've pushed through the 20 km of solid trenches and fortifications" narrative. That's been going around since last eyar, I think- either the WSJ or the NYT did a big piece about the US command hub interacting with the UAF that stated the same thing, and pinned the blame on Syrsky for trying to get his share of the glory by leading a supportive attack on the Velyka Novosilka axis.

But honestly, we've seen the footage. A column tries to get through the minefiled, a helicopter takes out the lead vehicle that's doing the clearing, column's stuck, gets bombarded by more helicopters and artillery. Rinse, repeat.

While the orcs had air control in the S in the summer of 2023, with minefields 5-10 km deep, whether you threw in 40 or 100 armored vehicles, I seriously doubt you'd have gotten a "decisive breakthrough". The enemy spent 8 months (from the withdrawal from Kherson to the start of the UAF summer offensive building up and fortifying 4-layered trench lines. They weren't getting cracked as long as there was sufficient manpower there to hold them, unfortunately.

Some reports that UAF managed to grab a foothold in Plavni. If true, this means the forces trying to occupy Stepnohirsk are at a risk of being cut off, which would be a repeat of what happened in Kup'yans'k.

Z-heads are hinting that the TG block that's rumoured to be coming on April 1st is a prelude to the next mobilization, b/c UAF's focus on droning over 30k orcs a month (which is above their recruitment rate) is bearing fruit, meaning the overall numbers are starting to diminish, and without a steady increase in manpower holding their ground (to say nothing of advancing) is becoming more and more difficult.

[Werthead]

Interesting account in The Guardian from dozens of UK, US, Ukrainian and even some Russian sources on the start of the war.

The most interesting bit here is how vociferously Dmitry Kozak argued against the invasion, even standing up and arguing with Putin during that grotesque bit of theatre when Putin asked for government and business officials to back him. The broadcast version has Putin mocking Naryshkin for stammering but otherwise accepts everyone's agreement. The uncut version apparently has Kozak and Putin getting into it over the decision, Kozak only keeping his position (and possibly life) from being one of Putin's most trusted confidantes for over 20 years.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 February 2026 - 12:24 AM

[Werthead]

Multiple Flamingo cruise missiles just flew over 1300km to hit the Votinsk Munitions Plan, which produces Iskander ballistic missiles. The plant took a serious hit, although the plant is also massive, and was far from fully disabled. Still, an impressive demonstration of Flamingo's increasing capabilities.

Several of the more reliable OSINT sources have treated the Ukrainian counter-offensive along the Dnipropetrovsk - Zaporizhzhia border with caution due to the unusual lack of hard information from that sector. But with more information released in the last day or so, and some more combat and drone footage, even they are now allowing that Ukraine has retaken over 300 square kilometres of front. Whilst not a war-winning move, it appears to be succeeding more than was expected due to a partial collapse of Russian supply lines in this sector and the loss of Starlink has been more devastating to Russian comms even than anticipated. Ukrainian forces continue to drive the Russians back, further away from Zaporizhzhia city (pop. 700,000), and may now be considering an assault (or at least fire control) on Hulyaipole, which would be ambitious but maybe feasible once the high ground north of the city is more firmly secured.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 February 2026 - 11:33 PM

[Werthead]

Very unconfirmed for the time being, but several OSINT sources (not the more usual rock-solid ones) are reporting that Russian lines in the SW Zaporizhzhia front have collapsed and Ukrainian forces have broken through to Kamianske. Pushing the Russians back south of the river and further away from Zaporizhzhia city is Ukraine's long-term strategic goal in this sector and this takes them quite close to achieving it.

Slovakia and Hungary have threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine if Ukraine does not reopen the Duzhba pipeline, so Poland and Romania have already expanded their connectors to replace them and Ukraine has blown up the Kaleykino oil pumping and heating station. That could just freeze the pipes solid in this weather.

A Russian drone flew towards the French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in Malmö harbour and Sweden responded by using EW to knock it out of the sky.

This comes after apparent confirmation that Russian assets carried out sabotage on the Dutch rail network in June 2025, damaging 30 overhead cables. Some of these fell and caused sparks and damage to the roof of a train carrying General Ben Hodges.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has carried out another big hit on Belgorod's energy network. According to some residents, the sewage system has completely failed in parts of the oblast, and the governor has repeated his warning that some areas may not have services restored for ~6 months or more.

Ukraine launched multiple Flamingo missiles to strike targets in Kazan, Perm and Yekaterinburg, in Russia. The missiles hugged the surface of the River Don until very close to the targets and then peeled off. The longest-ranged missile travelled over 1,800 kilometres. Quite impressive.

Rishi Sunak has been appointed special advisor to Ukraine on reconstruction and investment attraction. Apparently he is to use his UK and Indian connections to look at raising investment in Ukraine's economy from both the UK and India.

Reddit has crowdfunded an anti-drone battery for Ukraine.

A confused response to a Russian drone heading straight towards the Romanian village of Chilia Veche. Two F-16s were scrambled and requested engagement permission, but this was withheld was the drone was in Ukrainian airspace. The village is literally on the border, there is no engagement window between the drone entering Romanian airspace and hitting the village. After some frantic communications, it appears the Romanians contacted the Ukrainians, who promptly shot the drone down whilst it was still on the Ukrainian side of the border (the automated defence target selector may have let the drone go because it wasn't going to hit a target in Ukraine).

NATO needs to really get their engagement protocols straight here, that could have caused civilian casualties.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 February 2026 - 10:34 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Russian mystery pink drug turns infantry in Ukraine into "biological robots." Soldiers keep walking until headshot stops them

[...] substance lets a soldier fight for several more hours even after critical injuries and blood loss, although such "robowarriors" usually do not survive until dawn due to physical exhaustion.

[...] also driven by the widespread use of strong Kevlar protection. It covers the entire body and stops small fragments from low-power UAV munitions. In some cases, special Kevlar cloaks are even used.

https://euromaidanpr...hot-stops-them/

Good true robots (of Ukraine) vs evil human robots...

[Werthead]

Belgian and French forces have captured the Russian shadow fleet tanker Ethera and forced it into port at Zeebrugge.

Ukrainian special forces have destroyed a Russian radar station and S-300V AA battery in Mariupol.

Ukraine has pointed out that Putin's international standing is at rock-bottom, with him failing to assist or support Assad, Maduro or Khamenei.

[Mentalist]

Huge attack on the Novorossiysk oil terminal. Seems UAF wants to make sure putler has a hard time capitalizing on the oil price spike.

Parts of Crimea are also in a blackout. UAF's been hitting power infrastructure behind the frontlines hard recently.

[Werthead]

A Ukrainian automated ground droid has engaged and destroyed a Russian drone with AA machine guns. Two robots on opposing sides killing one another. Probably not the first time its happened, but crazy to see.

The Russian shadow fleet tanker Arctica Metagaz is ablaze in the Mediterranean, having been hit by sea drones near Malta.

Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine has offered assistance to Gulf States in repelling Shahed drones. Qatar and the UAE have already taken ideas on board, from the sound of it (and unconfirmed reports some Ukrainian personnel may already be in the Gulf).

Ukraine has destroyed an S-300 radar system in Luhansk. Interesting signs that S-300 radars, which are predominantly used for AA purposes, may be in use as general radars due to other systems being exhausted.

Ukraine has damaged the Yevpatoria Aviation Plant, where Forpost and Orion drones are constructed.

Several analyses show that Ukraine has massively enhanced defensive fortifications throughout the Donbas region, as well as other parts of the country, including areas currently free of danger, like Chernihiv and Sumy city. The defensive rings surrounding Zaporizhzhia city, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk can only be described as insane. Ukraine has publicised these recently, adding to Russian concerns about what it's going to take to complete the conquest of Donbas, let alone anywhere else.

Ukraine has also destroyed a radar system attached to an S-400 AA system at Osinovaya Gora in Russia's Tula region. Russia has lost five air defence systems in one day, which is the highest figure for some time.

[Mentalist]

Satellite screens are showing a bunch of damaged tubs in the Novorossiysk Black Sea Fleet harbor. While nothing was sunk, quite a few got burn marks, and one of the big Grigorovoch-class frigates (only 2 of those in the Black Sea) lost its main radar, which is expensive.

Also, a drone swarm allegedly from Lybia set a big Norwegian gas tanker (which is now part of the sanctioned portion of the shadow fleet) on fire off the coast of Malta. That one is likely to sink.

The orcs lost a helicopter (with crew) repelling an air raid in Rostov Oblast'. presumably due to friendly fire.