[amphibian]

 Morgoth, on 04 April 2014 - 06:03 PM, said:

Crimea belonged to the Ottoman empire until... Late 18th century?

It nominally did, yet Peter the Great launched two or three separate wars aimed at keeping the Azov and Black Seas open to Russian trade/newly built warships over twenty years (1687, 1689, 1695-1696). Those wars are concrete actions based on what is probably decades (at the very least) of maneuvering and politics over the Crimea.

A forced and violence-based re-shuffling of ethnic demographics took place 80 years ago, yet it is a thing based in centuries of war, politics and Russian insistence upon cheap/free access to the Black Sea.

[Mentalist]

 amphibian, on 04 April 2014 - 07:53 PM, said:

 Morgoth, on 04 April 2014 - 06:03 PM, said:

Crimea belonged to the Ottoman empire until... Late 18th century?

It nominally did, yet Peter the Great launched two or three separate wars aimed at keeping the Azov and Black Seas open to Russian trade/newly built warships over twenty years (1687, 1689, 1695-1696). Those wars are concrete actions based on what is probably decades (at the very least) of maneuvering and politics over the Crimea.

A forced and violence-based re-shuffling of ethnic demographics took place 80 years ago, yet it is a thing based in centuries of war, politics and Russian insistence upon cheap/free access to the Black Sea.

Not "nominally" Peter I conquered Azov, true. But he later yielded it back to the turks, after the disastrous Prut campaign. Prior to this, his elder sister Sofia has ordered two attempts to assualt crimea, both unsuccessful. it's important to remeber, Russia ALWAYS wanted to control Crimea, purely due to the fact that Tatars continuosly raided Russia.

but up intil Catherine II, Russia was in no position to do anything about Crimea. Following the partitions of Poland and the Dissolution of Hetmanate, and the ruination of Zaporozhian Sich (effectively complete annexation of Ukraine that turned Ukrainian into serfs), Russia began to directly border the Ottoman empire, at which point, they were in a position to start actively meddling in Crimea. Following a number of successful campaigns, Russia gained the Black Sea steppes of what is now Southern Ukraine, founding the cities of Kherson, Mykolayiv and Odessa and also achieved "independence" of the Crimean Khanate from the Ottomans, which was followed with a Russian intervention and annexation.

nonetheless, Crimea remained "Tatar" rather than "Russian" in the Russian Empire, and following the Revolution of 1917, a Tatar government pronounced independence of Crimea, as part of federation with a newly-pronounced Ukrainian People's Republic (UNR). This was overthrown by local Russian Bolsheviks, of course, who were in turn suppressed by Ukrainian troops in 1919. Crimea was later occupied by the Whites and used as an evacuation point for Wrangel's army. When the Reds took crimea in the 1920s, they massacred the Tatars, and incorporated Crimea as an oblast in RFSR. Then follwing teh recapture of Crimea in WW2 they ordered the deportation.

It's important to distinguish the role Crimea and Sevastopol played in Russian history/mythology with the practical realities of the raw population and numbers.

[Mentalist]

Exciting weekend. Separatists made their move.

In Donetsk, they took over Oblast Admin. building on Sunday, and on Monday they announced the formation of `People's Republic of Donetsk" after capturing the SBU (Security Service) building and taking weapons from there. Now, here on out, by "capture" I mean "were allowed to walk right in by police who were supposed to prevent them, but didn't because their regional higher-ups are playing mind games with Kyiv to keep their posts"

In Luhansk, separatist captured the SBU building on Sunday

In Kharkiv, on Sunday separatists took part of the Obl Admin building. Police continued to occupy top floors.

It's important to note that none of the duly elected governments (City Halls or Oblast Councils) have endorsed the separatists in the occupied cities.

Monday looked grim. Donets and Kharkiv pronounced "People's Republics", there was a weak attempt to assault Oblast Admin in Mykolajiv. In Kharkiv, separatist violently attacked the pro-unity rally that was unarmed, while the cops stood by. They only stepped in when a portion of the pro-unity rally was harried into a cafe and separatist were going to storm it to go after them--to prevent damage to private property. There were rumours of OblAdmin assault plans in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk.

But things changed towards the night. In Mykolajiv, local Self-Defense, along with Right Sector and unaffiliated Maydan/unity supporter dealt with the local separatists, demolishing their tent camp, despite half-hearted resistance by the cops (they were supposedly trying to keep the two sides apart ,and when the fighting started they waded in hitting both sides, but, somehow, majority of the injuries were suffered by unity supporters). Despite the fact that separatists opened fire from traumatic guns, and there were 7 people hospitalized, the separatists were completely routed.

In Odessa, still during the day, Maydan Self-Defence has detained 3 armed separatists and passed them onto the police. Seeing the amount of unity supporters, separatists dispersed without trying anything.

IN Dnipropetrovsk, the local oligarch made governor who expressed a very strong pro-unity position essentially ordered the separatist to behave themselves: they will be given a portion of the OblAdmin building for their meetings, and they are to devise a constituional way to try to work on their demands (federalization and Russian as official language). As such, they now have no chances there.

In Donetsk, Vice-Premier of Law + Security has arrrived in the city with a number of anti-terrorist special forces units, and set up an Anti-Terrorist Centre. Separatist retreated from the SBU, and the region's biggest oligarch (whom many suspected was fuelling the dissent) had personally appealed to the separatists, asking them to negotiate, to avoid an assault and bloodshed, taking a stance for united Ukraine. The situation is still touch and go, but the prelim agreement will see the separatists disarm and eventually yield the OblAdmin building.

In Kharkiv the situation was touch and go for most of Monday night. After dispersing the pro-unity rally, the separatist resumed their attempts to take over the Obl Admin. First they tried to convince the police to leave peacefully, when they refused, things began to escalate. Part of the occupying police from the neighboring region of Poltava attempted to push the separatist back, using force and ligh and sound grenades, but this was only temporary. Eventually, the building was yielded to the separatists, who also the same night occupied and trashed the city's TV tower. But Tuesday morning, the OblAdmin was once again stormed by the police, with over 70 separatists arrested.

Now it appears they are getting desperate. In Luhansk, they are reported to have taken hostages and mined the SBU building. The internet channels separatist used to communicate are full of complaints that "Russia left us out to dry". Today the Rada increased the maximum punishment for separatism from 8 to 15 years in jail. Though UA govt remains reluctant to use more than minimal force in dealing with separatism for fear of Russian involvement, it seems pretty obvious at this point that they're losing. Having taken back Kharkiv (whose police force will be "cleansed" by about a third following this, as per the Minister of the Interior), the separatists are confined to Donbass, and here it's the oligarchs that have to choose which way their future will go.

[Mentalist]

Lots of buzz about Geneva. Some experts call it "Munich 2014", others see it as Russia's serious loss.

In the end, it's likely to amount to shit all. Russia didn't admit it's their spetznaz stirring the pot, and if they're not there, how can Russia give them orders to leave? lol

The other stuff is rote and part and parcel of what uki govt is offering the regions-there have been CONSTANT talks about de-centralization. Even the staunchly pro-Russian Party of Regions (former party of the former president) has dropped its "federalization" rhetoric in favour of "decentralization. "Federalization" is the magic word that serves as red rag to the bull that are Uki patriots. The word was forever discredited when in response to the Orange Revolution a bunch of Party of Regions bigwigs held a congress in 2004 where they tried to create "South-Eastern Ukrainian Republic",a nd spoke about federalizing. Federalization is seen as the first step necessary to legalize secession. So it's a VERY touchy subject. The fact that even PoR (the de-facto owners and rulers of the rebellious Donbass who continue to claim to speak for the entire "South-East", though their support is on the massive wane just about everywhere) has shifted from "federalization" to "decentralization" is an indicator that sans direct and crude Russian intervention nothing significant will happen to the status of the area.

The bit that makes some people's hackles rise is the broad scope of the OSCE's monitors' mandate and the "accountability" bit in describing the constitutional reform and he preceding national dialogue. I don't see it as a huge deal.

Realisticaly, the implications are uncertain. Many were unhappy that Crimea wasn't discussed-they think this means the West has accepted the annexation. At the same time the West made it clear it's not off the table--it's just being tabled until the more immediate issue is dealt with.

The real problem of the day is Putin's "direct line" chat with Russians that occured the same day. In it he dug up an old Imperial term of "Novorossiya" or "New Russia" that used to refer to the lands of what is now Southern Ukraine, taken by the Russian Empire from the Turks in the reign of Catherine II. Putin made it clear that he considers that to be part of "Russian historical space". At the same, in a major geography fail, he both excluded Dnipropetrovs'k and Zaporizhya, and mistakenly included Kharkiv as part of this "New Russia", demonstrating that this historical term is just a tool and its accuracy is really secondary.

Still, as we enter the great holiday, which in vernacular Ukrainian is known simply as "The Great Day", I am hopeful. I am hopeful, because on Thursday during the Geneva talks over a thousand pro-Unity supporters gathered for a rally even in the occupied Kramators'k, and despite threats and earlier violent incidents, over 5k people came out in Donetsk to speak out for unity. I am hopeful, because I believe in the wisdom of my people. Because we've already accomplished the impossible twice over, and because with every day, with every strike against us, we shed another bit of the Soviet man, and every lie spoken out against us opens the eyes of another person somewhere. And in the end, we will "become masters in our own land" while "our enemies will fade like dew on the sun", as spoken in our anthem.

[cerveza_fiesta]

@Ment

Is it your feeling (or the feeling of others) in ukraine that this is fast-becoming another proxy war between USA and Russia, or does your government still have some real say in the outcome?

That's what we get in the media here, but as always, they only tell a small one-sided heavily-slanted part of the story.

[Mentalist]

 cerveza_fiesta, on 23 April 2014 - 01:24 PM, said:

@Ment

Is it your feeling (or the feeling of others) in ukraine that this is fast-becoming another proxy war between USA and Russia, or does your government still have some real say in the outcome?

That's what we get in the media here, but as always, they only tell a small one-sided heavily-slanted part of the story.

Ask me back in about 5 weeks, lol.

THing is, this isn't a "war" per se. It's a Russian intervention into a politically unstable UA, which has a pro-West govt. But the govt isn't backed by the West in the traditional sense. Unlike the Orange Revolution, that was very much a part of US-staged "colour revolutions", the Maydan was largely spontaneous. There are indications that Uki oppposition was, in fact planning smth like this--but they were aiming @ the regularly scheduled Pres elections of March 2015 so the winter protests caught them largely off-guard. While I'm almost certain there was some Western money on the Maydan, mostly it was run using the money, food, and all kinds of supplies donateed by citizens of Kyiv and other parts of UA. I've sent money over regularly from Canada, and most of the Ukis I know have done the same.

Also, the actual force the govt can rely on-hardly the cops, the army's been run down, cut down and demoralized fro about 23 years. Intelligence has been infiltrated by FSB. Most effective force atm is the newly re-formed National Guard--composed of Maydan volunteers with combat experience/weapons training. Also Right Sector--which is far-right and markedly wary of the West in their rhetoric.
Precisely because the current govt is in such a precarious position where there are a lot of people that want to see major changes, and expect them to make them happen "otherwise we'll remove them as we removed the last govt", it's unfair to call this a pure "proxy war". The uki govt certainly wishes it was-then at least they'd be certain of the West's direct support. As it stands, they have tentative support, but the West isn't committing much to support them, given the resources Russia can and will use if they really need to.

Donbass is a complicated region. It's heavily industrialized, and people there have never asked too many questions. The Bad old 90s when all that industry found its way from the government into the ownership of a few select "businessmen" have left their mark as well. Add to this the fact that most people get their news from Russian TV, and almost 80% of these people have never in their lives travelled anywhere outside Donbass,a nd you get a populace ripe for manipulation. Add to that the fact they almost all speak Russian, and well, it's even worse.

Still, latest opinion polls show only about a third of the people there actually want to join Russia. The rest of them just want to "live better". They blame central govt for all their ills, conveniently ignoring the fact that their region's own party was in charge for the last 4 years, and for the last 2 years they've had absolute control, having a solid Parliament majority and the Pres. There's also a large percentage on pensioners who just want to live teh way they did back in USSR days, and they see Russia as that good old USSR.

If there was a chance to educate those ppl, explain to them using objective numbers, what is Putin's Russia and what is Europe, and also offer them a way of transitioning from dependency on Russia's business so as not the entire region loses their jobs and livelyhoods, then most of those people could be gotten through to (except pensioners. They're generally a lost cause). Problem is, local politicians/oligarchs/crimelords (all one and the same) won't allow any organization with such goals to exist for long--since educated people may actually ask questions such as "why are these X number of people stinking rich, while the rest of us are dirt poor? How did they end up the ones in charge?", and instead it's a propaganda war. Which Ukraine can't really win.

And Russia... God only knows Russia's ultimate motives. The rest of the traditional "South and East" Russian-speaking regions they are dying to try to "protect" overwhelmingly don't want to be part of Russia--there's a 7k strong pro-Unity rally in Kharkiv as I'm typing this. Putin won't force them to love Russia and if he tries to annex 20 million people living there most of whom DON'T want to live in Russia... well, it'll make Russia's own future complicated. Very complicated.
On the other hand, annexing Donbass on its own is economic suicide--it means annexing an area of 5 million people, most of whom will need govt assistance to be kept happy, with outdated economy reliant on unprofitable coal mines (Russia has plenty of cheap coal), and dying metallurgy and machine industry. And also 60% of those people don't want to be part of Russia.
So I really don't know. it's complicated. The most obvious thing is, Russia wants to gain strong positions in Donbass to influence Kyiv politically. And it hopes to do that by a constitutional reform tailored to give Donbass and other "Russian-speaking regions" additional power. And also legitimize secession attempts as an instrument of further blackmail any time Kyiv steps out of line. And Donbass elites are at least partially going along with it, because they want to keep their economic preferences and loads and loads of subsidy moneys they can steal, and also guarantees that no one will try to disturb hteir little fiefdoms, that, due to a large population, give them a lot of sway come election time--but at the same time, they DONT want to be part of Russia proper, because Putin will destroy them. And the threat of a straight-up annexation is there just to make Russia look more convincing.

[Gothos]

I'm wondering at this point if EU and NATO in general can make the obvious step forward and embargo russian gas, oil and petrol. It would make energy more expensive, sure, but it would absolutely cripple Russia as it stands now, taking more than half of its government income from natural resources. A blow like this would cripple and dismember the russian state, if all goes well. This beast has to be gutted at some point or they'll never stop attempting imperialism in my - and many of yours - back yard.
A crippled Russia could eventually bring Ukraine and Belarus closer to Europe and away from totalitarian misery and weak economies, perhaps even get Koningsberg out of their influence as well. Would certainly make Georgia sleep a bit better at night.
It seems obvious giving in to what Putin wants in the area will just make him want more.

[Obdigore]

The EU isn't going to do it until they have another place to get their energy needs.

It's why sanctions haven't already been harsher. While I personally think Putin/Russia is going to invade at least eastern Ukraine, after Ukraine there isn't anywhere else he can go.

Ukraine waited to long to try to get out from under Russia's thumb.

Since the US, NATO, EU, and really anyone else have no kind of defensive treaties with Ukraine, there isn't an (international) legal justification I'm aware of to try to help them beyond suggesting Russia shouldn't be such a dick. Since Russia is on the Security Council at the UN, that way is a no-go.

What is hopefully going to happen is Northern Europe is going to start producing more energy and Europe as a whole will start purchasing more from the US, and then start letting Russias economy stagnate further. Russia's current outlays require the price of oil to more than double per barrel by 2020. If people start buying less and there is more on the market (US is starting to produce more, and I hope Northern Europe is doing the same), Russia is going to have to either try to grab other natural resources (which would be from China at that point), start shrinking their government, or they will go through another revolution.

The problem is that the Russian people, in general, have been expansionist and imperialistic for hundreds of years. Putin is just continuing this stance.

[Tapper]

 Possibly Brent Weeks, on 25 April 2014 - 08:36 AM, said:

The EU isn't going to do it until they have another place to get their energy needs.

It's why sanctions haven't already been harsher. While I personally think Putin/Russia is going to invade at least eastern Ukraine, after Ukraine there isn't anywhere else he can go.

Ukraine waited to long to try to get out from under Russia's thumb.

Since the US, NATO, EU, and really anyone else have no kind of defensive treaties with Ukraine, there isn't an (international) legal justification I'm aware of to try to help them beyond suggesting Russia shouldn't be such a dick. Since Russia is on the Security Council at the UN, that way is a no-go.

What is hopefully going to happen is Northern Europe is going to start producing more energy and Europe as a whole will start purchasing more from the US, and then start letting Russias economy stagnate further. Russia's current outlays require the price of oil to more than double per barrel by 2020. If people start buying less and there is more on the market (US is starting to produce more, and I hope Northern Europe is doing the same), Russia is going to have to either try to grab other natural resources (which would be from China at that point), start shrinking their government, or they will go through another revolution.

The problem is that the Russian people, in general, have been expansionist and imperialistic for hundreds of years. Putin is just continuing this stance.

Actually, there's a tri-partite agreement.
The short of it is apparently that Ukraine demolished its nuclear arsenal and in return, Russia and the USA each guaranteed its independence. Which is why the farcical referenda about independence of Crimea and the declarations of independence of certain regions are the tool Putin uses, citing "the will of the people".

As for the energy consumptions... yes, it will be more expensive for Europe at a time where we're only just recovering, but the options are there - unless we (or rather, Germany) stop nuclear power production because of the nuclear waste and the dangers associated with it (ironically, the US is big on that, and recently at the Hague conference reinforced this: apparently on account of terrorists making dirty bombs with nuclear refuse).

Sanctions have more to do with European investments into Russia than anything else: Russia is the third trading partner of the EU. Since the way into Russia is co-operating with the Russian national companies/ companies owned by Putin's friends, it seems likely that big economic sanctions would lead to a Russian response of seizing/annexing these assets, probably aided by a very well-paid judge declaring a breach of contract from the European side.

[HoosierDaddy]

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

[Tapper]

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

True. I know it's just a tearing of paper, but
a) it precludes Russia from invading Ukraine as a signee,
with the admission that Russian personell had been operating on the Crimea, there is now a 'cause' to reply to that makes this different from, say, the Kosovo war Putin consistently refers to as unlawful meddling by the west.

[HoosierDaddy]

 Tapper, on 25 April 2014 - 05:24 PM, said:

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

True. I know it's just a tearing of paper, but
a) it precludes Russia from invading Ukraine as a signee,
with the admission that Russian personell had been operating on the Crimea, there is now a 'cause' to reply to that makes this different from, say, the Kosovo war Putin consistently refers to as unlawful meddling by the west.

I didn't know that an official Russian source had admitted to involvement in the Crimean affair. It is certainly a casus belli for Ukraine and refutation of said agreement prima facie by Russia. Thus, any acts globally to sanction Russia would have a very good legal basis, but as oft stated the real politiks and international will to do so are severely lacking.

[Mentalist]

 Gothos, on 25 April 2014 - 06:21 AM, said:

I'm wondering at this point if EU and NATO in general can make the obvious step forward and embargo russian gas, oil and petrol. It would make energy more expensive, sure, but it would absolutely cripple Russia as it stands now, taking more than half of its government income from natural resources. A blow like this would cripple and dismember the russian state, if all goes well. This beast has to be gutted at some point or they'll never stop attempting imperialism in my - and many of yours - back yard. A crippled Russia could eventually bring Ukraine and Belarus closer to Europe and away from totalitarian misery and weak economies, perhaps even get Koningsberg out of their influence as well. Would certainly make Georgia sleep a bit better at night. It seems obvious giving in to what Putin wants in the area will just make him want more.

The West is scared shitless of Russia disintegrating spontaneously. Now much more that 23 years ago. Yes, the West can make Russia collapse, but if they drive Russians to destitute poverty, they will end up causing a "senseless and merciless Russian Riot"--the last time this happened we've had a Russian Civil War and the Red Terror that followed. Now you could have a civil war... with world's second largest nuclear arsenal. Russia will NOT disintgrate peacebly. and eveyone knows this. There are also underlying issues of instability, corruption and the fact that Chechens run the criminal underworld in even small Russian towns. Collapse of Putin's power structure, inevitable as it is, will plunge Russia staight into feudalism. Except, you know, guns. And nukes.

 Possibly Brent Weeks, on 25 April 2014 - 08:36 AM, said:

The EU isn't going to do it until they have another place to get their energy needs. It's why sanctions haven't already been harsher. While I personally think Putin/Russia is going to invade at least eastern Ukraine, after Ukraine there isn't anywhere else he can go. Ukraine waited to long to try to get out from under Russia's thumb. Since the US, NATO, EU, and really anyone else have no kind of defensive treaties with Ukraine, there isn't an (international) legal justification I'm aware of to try to help them beyond suggesting Russia shouldn't be such a dick. Since Russia is on the Security Council at the UN, that way is a no-go.What is hopefully going to happen is Northern Europe is going to start producing more energy and Europe as a whole will start purchasing more from the US, and then start letting Russias economy stagnate further. Russia's current outlays require the price of oil to more than double per barrel by 2020. If people start buying less and there is more on the market (US is starting to produce more, and I hope Northern Europe is doing the same), Russia is going to have to either try to grab other natural resources (which would be from China at that point), start shrinking their government, or they will go through another revolution.The problem is that the Russian people, in general, have been expansionist and imperialistic for hundreds of years. Putin is just continuing this stance.

Obdi, I'm sorry, but you're wrong. There's plenty for him to take after Eastern UA.
to start with: if the West lets Putin indulge his "Novorossiya" rhetoric and allows him to annex Southern UA as well (and Odessa is almost as sacral to the Soviet Man as Crimea or Kyiv), then Russia will directly border the unrecognized Transnistria. Which has held TWO referendums begging Russia to take them. And while he's at it, Putin may as well take Moldova, which isn't in NATO yet. Sure, Romania might object, but who cares?

Next, there's Karabakh and the smoulderign conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenians are surrounded by Georgians (who are Russia's enemies) and Muslims. Russia is their only ally. why wouldn't Putin defend a fellow Christian nation? say, why not grab Azerbaijan while he's at it? there's more Caspian oil and gas! and he gan split it with Iran for good measure just to make sure it's all cool.

Then there's Central Asia. Some Russian officials are already talking about how Eastern Kazakhstan was transferred from Russia to Kazakh ASSR in 1926, and there's lots of Russians there... sounds familiar? of course, Nazarbayev will then likely sell his soul to the Chinese, but who's to say that will stop Putin.

Also, Finland and Sweden aren't members of NATO either. And Russians have been buying up real estate on the Finnish side of the border. Who knows when they might find lack of an official Russian language "oppressive"? Sounds crazy? I'll bet. But a few months ago, so did the notion of redrawing ANY borders in Europe.

EDIT: also, much more typical: Belarus (Yeah, Lukashenko talks big about "defending every inch of the home soil". But who's to say he won't have an "accident?" and Russia won't move in to guarantee "stability"?)

And let's not forget that about 30% of Latvian population are Russian-speaking non-citizens (because knowing latvian is mandatory citizenship req), and Estonia has same policy, and large number of Russians compactly residing in areas next to the Russian border. "What, NATO? oh sure, they're NATO. But, you know, the taxpayers don't want another war in some tiny Russian province... what's that? oh, but come on, *wink*, we all know it was actually Russian. Just like Crimea."

 Tapper, on 25 April 2014 - 05:24 PM, said:

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

True. I know it's just a tearing of paper, but a) it precludes Russia from invading Ukraine as a signee, with the admission that Russian personell had been operating on the Crimea, there is now a 'cause' to reply to that makes this different from, say, the Kosovo war Putin consistently refers to as unlawful meddling by the west.

The Budapest Memorandum actually guarantees "independence and territorial integrity". Not that it particularly matters.

There are many things that make the Kosovo analogy fall apart. There's the lack of ethnic cleansings... no, scratch that--the lack of ethnic tensions in Crimea to begin with. Then there's the Security Council approval, and the fact that there weren't any Albanian "peacekeepers" in Kosovo (though I really don't like the Kosovo precedent, and also the whole Yugoslav scenario the way it was played out in realpolitik, but that's a whole different topic. Incidentally, UA has not voted "for" the recognition of Kosovo in the General Assembly back in the day, and i'm unsure whether they've yet recognised Kosovo) Also, the thing that kills and buries the Kosovo argument: Kosovo didn't join Albania. End of story.

Meanwhile, under Russian ocupation, Tatar kids gets hospitalised for speaking Tatar. Ukrainian boy is beaten to death for speaking Ukrainian. Ukrainian Orthodox Churches (Kyiv Patriarchate) are being softly expropriated, despite strong written guarantees this won't happen just a month ago. The announced extended deadline to refuse a Russian citizenship has NOT been invoked. The recognised leader of Crimean Tatars, a person who's spent 15 years in GULAG for his patriotism, one of the most famous living dissidents--is delared by the Crimean PM (formerly known as "Goblin" in Crimean criminal circles) a persona non-grate until 2019. Crimea, welcome back to Russia.

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:33 PM, said:

 Tapper, on 25 April 2014 - 05:24 PM, said:

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

True. I know it's just a tearing of paper, but a) it precludes Russia from invading Ukraine as a signee, with the admission that Russian personell had been operating on the Crimea, there is now a 'cause' to reply to that makes this different from, say, the Kosovo war Putin consistently refers to as unlawful meddling by the west.

I didn't know that an official Russian source had admitted to involvement in the Crimean affair. It is certainly a casus belli for Ukraine and refutation of said agreement prima facie by Russia. Thus, any acts globally to sanction Russia would have a very good legal basis, but as oft stated the real politiks and international will to do so are severely lacking.

Putin said as much in his lates "direct line" I've referred to earlier. He admitted regular Russian troops (not Black Sea Fleet) personnel was backing up the "local self-defence forces", because "without us, there would be no way to organize and conduct an orderly referendum".

So yes, the casus belli is there. Problem is, there's no force for UA to enforce it, so it's gonna get saved for a much more favourable circumstances.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 26 April 2014 - 04:14 AM

[Mentalist]

Fuck.

Russia's going all out, balls to the wall. May Days will be chaotic and probably violent.

The latest "sanctions" are a fucking joke. Yes, more companies in Putin's "inner circle" are blacklisted. Big whoop. Since one thing the clever analysts are missing out on is the fact that the "inner circle" depends on Putin--NOT vice versa. Of the people that put Putin in power, they are all dead (Berezovsky), exiled (Abramovich), or broken (Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky, etc). So no "personal" sanctions will work. Either you target the country, or admit that you're leaving UA out to dry.

On Sunday things looked OK. The hostage situation was bad, but it just confirmed that the "separatist" were terrorists, pure and simple. And a 7-k strong march of Kharkiv + Dnipropetrovsk football Ultras (formerly great rivals) in Kharkiv ended up dispersing much smaller number of separatists who tried to attack them. I dared to hope things were going to calm down.

then yesterday Kharkiv's odious mayor was shot. The man is a bastard who played his own game always, but post-Bloody Thursday it became quickly clear that Russia's interests were not his interests. He kept Kharkiv police loyal-ish to united UA and allowed the patriots of Kharkiv to organize and muster themselves.
I don't believe that he was shot by Unity supporters, such as Right Sector. If they were to assassinate anyone in Kharkiv it'd have been Zhylin, the head of a quasi-criminal "figter's club" "Oplot", that was and is the main recruiting and coordinating centre for the separatists' shock troops. Assassinating Kernes serves only to initiate a property redistribution in power do a created power vacuum, which invites chaos and provides Russians with opportunities. Which is why Kernes has to live. Hope those Israeli doctors know their stuff.

Also, yesterday, the pro-unity march was attacked and dispersed in Donetsk. Donbass patriots still refuse to organize and defend themselves, hoping for peace and intervention of local police. And the local police seemingly changes their allegiances every other day. Some rallies are guarded by thousands. Others-by a thin cordon that retreats as soon as a Georgian ribbon is in sight.

And today... Jesus fuck. Luhans'k is completely lost. aside from the SBU the separatists have held for over a week now, they've now "seized" the Oblast Admin building, the TV tower, the Prosecution building, and according to the latest reports-the Oblast Police building. The police units stationed to protect them are not locals--but Command refuses to give them orders to shoot. while the attackers are toting new AKs, and shoot from behind a human cordon of women.

No one can understand what the bloody hell the Government is thinking. The upcoming election seems to melt their brains. The Minister of Interior (who happens to be in the UK, on a conference discussion how to give UA back the billions that previous govt funneled outside the country) has gone so far as to state that it may not be possible to hold elections in a few regions--which is great news for Russia, since it basically means "we won't fight to restore order in areas you take away from us". Or at least that's the signal patriots are reading from this.

The really worrying thing is that the presidential candidate Tsaryov, a rabid pro-Russian and a star of Russia's biggest propaganda channels who has been begging Russia to intervene for months has today announced that he's forfeiting the presidential race and he urged other candidates "whose base electorate is in the South and East" to do the same. Which would give Russia yet more reasons to yell about the "illegitimacy" of the elections.

And since the govt is now practically run by a single party whose leader Yuliya Tymoshenko doesn't seem to be leading the presidentiary race despite all her attempts to make herself out as the one martyr of the old regime, a political prisoner and the only one capable of dealing with things, there's a lot of discontent, suggesting that Tymoshenko is selling part of UA to Putin in exchange for his recognition of her as the one in charge.

Fuck. This is bad. I don't know where they'll stop if the govt ain't doing squat. Each city in UA, even in Western UA will have its thousand of marginals and pensioners who miss the USSR. Does that mean that a 20-30 armed men amidst this thousand will be able to take every single city while the glorious police stands by and "Refuses to fire on civilians"? And all the while govt is refusing to give patriots weapons.

I hate this rollercoaster. We go from hope to joy to dispair in less than 24h. The situation in Kyiv is confusing, as people demand smth be done. There are even rumours of a military coup by patriotic officers (junior officers, all generals are post-soviet appointments who are still really loyal to the idea of the Empire) , and I'm not sure I'm 100% opposed to it anymore.

[Obdigore]

It gets worse.

http://www.independe...lt-9314374.html

Quote

Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson accused Kiev of launching a "punitive operation" in south-east Ukraine, destroying the final hope of keeping alive the Geneva agreement designed to defuse the crisis, Russian news agencies reported.

Essentially, Putin is giving himself a reach-around so he can move Russian Regulars into Eastern Ukraine and say they are 'there to save the civilians', like he did in Crimea.

[Mentalist]

pfft. First he has to explain where the hell did "spontaneous self-defense" in Slovyansk got their hands on freaking MISSILE LAUNCHERS to shoot down helicopters. these aren't your basic stingers either-they shot 2 at a time, one to take care of countermeasures, the other to shoot the helicopter down. Btw, these helicopters were spreading anti-terrorist leaflets, not shooting ppl. So let's see him explain that. Half those guys are waiting for a chance to surrender and get amnesty, now that there are actual bullets flying and people dying. not to mention that the Border Guard aren't the Army in UA--and they weren't purposefully cut down and dismantled for the last 4 years. They'll fight--won't take long to get overwhelmed, but theyll fight. And Russia can't win an occupation war in Ukraine. it'll be much worse than Chechnya, too, since its much harder to tell a Uki apart from a Russian.

MUCH more importantly, though, is what happened in Odessa. Slovyansk is a terrorist lair--once people start taking hostages, they lose their lofty titles of "rebels", or even "separatists". But Odessa....

Well, Odessa is special. It's the "Pearl of Ukraine", the absolutely biggest port city (probably biggest on the Black Sea), almost entirely Russian-speaking, and it did NOT want to be a part of Russia. And yet, to any Soviet, Odessa is about as sacred as Kyiv, or St Petersberg. Uts one of those places that Russians feel is just "theirs".

It's also one of the few places in the South where separatists (or "Federalization supporters") were (up to now) allowed to congregate openly. They've had their own tent village, where tehy hung their Russian flags, and the rest of the city kind of ignored them. From time to time they'd emerge for a march or rally, or run an altercation with the Maydan, but no one really cared.

But today... Today they crossed the line. A group of several hundred men armed with bats, pipes, knives and small arms, all wearing Georgian ribbons, accompanied by police, attacked a march of football Ultras of Odessa Chornomorets and their Kharkiv visitors, Metalist fans. The ultras held a march for United Ukraine, and were joined by a lot of passers-by, since today was a holiday, and this was the centre of the city.

Problem was, the separatists, used to attacking peaceful rallies with women and children, didn't count on resistance. But Ultras are a different kettle of fish. And once fighting broke out, a ton of odessans joined in, and social media quickly summoned thousands of Unity and Maydan supporters. The tide turned, and the Unity supporters started to push back separatists. they started shooting, there was one confirmed gunshot death (all of this being streamed live). This made people angry. What made them angrier was the fact that police (which at first refused to do anything) interfered on the side of the separatists, blocking them with riot shields from rocks and molotovs that flew at them. Only when a portion of the sepatratists was pushed back and surrounded in a small mall, did the police deem fit to step in and arrest them.

part of separatists retreated to their "camp". That's where the Unity supporters turned next. They came out in overwhelming numbers (shattering the myth that Odessa is pro-Russian), they overran the makeshift barricades and set the tents on fire. Separatists retreated to the nearby Trades Union building-about 400 of them. part of them climed onto the roof and was shooting from there, part was throwing Molotovs out the window. Molotovs were thrown at them. it's impossible to say who's responsible, bu the building caught fire. An estimated 31 Pro-Russian supporters died there-some tried jumpping out of the windows to escape the blaze, majority choked on the smoke. At this time people outside tried to help them, making makeshift ropes and ladders, trying to catch the jumpers (while separatists up top were still shooting).

This is unconfirmed, but some sources say, not a single person that died in the buildig was local. 10 were Russian citizens, 15-from Transnistria, and the rest Ukrainians but brought to the city. Another 50 or so holed up on the roof and were talked down later on in the evening and arrested. Inside the building there was a small arsenal-from bats to rifles and AKs. Total death toll (both separatists and patriots) is around 40, with about 175 people injured.

While I mourn all deaths, and Odessa itself will be in mourning for 3 days, what happened today is an irrevocable nail in the coffin of Putin's stillborn "Novorossiya" project. It also demonstrates to all Russian chauvinists that there is no such thing as "Russian-speaking Ukrainian South and East" as a unitary entity that needs Russian protection and awaits its "liberators". Despite the fact that people in those Southern cities mostly speak Russian, they see themselves as ukrainians. On streams from Odessa you can see 14 y.o. girls breaking down cobblestones to make them easier to trow and pensioners carrying rocks to the front rows of the confrontation. Young girls with expensive manicures making Molotovs. Literally the entire city came out to say "no" to any attempts to enforce Russia here.

After today, I strongly doubt a single person in Odessa will dare put on a Georgian Ribbon for Victory Day.

The activation of Uki troops around Slovyansk (for which I am eternally grateful to that Czech minister who straight up said "EU won't defend Ukraine untill it startes defending itself"--somehting the politicians in Kyiv seemed to be unable to grasp) has shifted accents in Donbass. In a number of towns, local separatists drew back, abandoning previously occupied admin buildings. Its obvious that there are a lot of areas where the people aren't ready to die for the DNR. not saying we're in the clear yet (probably won't be at least untill the election), but things are definitely looking up.

[cerveza_fiesta]

I almost hesitate to read this thread Ment, thinking you're going to be on here posting something about getting hurt in one of these scuffles, or that you'll stop posting altogether for good.


The insider reports are a captivating read, but it's good to know a fellow malazite is safe and sound despite the shitty situation there!


Media on our side of the pond is basically saying "all-out war". Even Reuters, which is usually pretty conservative with its headlines, is throwing around "war in Ukraine". From your perspective are things escalating or de-escalating as a result of these extreme events (like the incident in Odessa). Does it actually give anyone pause in the high-conflict areas or are they still waving their flags as hard as ever?

[Gnaw]

This is Forbes which is Murdoch owned so YMMV.

http://www.forbes.co...for-annexation/

Quote

Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results
The website of the "President of Russia's Council on Civil Society and Human Rights" posted a blog that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste. According to the Council's report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout was a maximum 30%. And of these, only half voted for annexation – meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

The fate of Crimea, therefore, was decided by the 15 percent of Crimeans, who voted in favor of unification with Russia (under the watchful eye of Kalashnikov-toting soldiers).

The official Crimean election results, as reported widely in the Western press, showed a 97 percent vote in favor of annexation with a turnout of 83 percent. No international observers were allowed. This pro-Russia election pressure would have raised the already weak vote in favor of annexation.

To make sure no one misses this:

Official Kremlin results: 97% for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and percent of Crimeans voting in favor 82%.

President's Human Rights Council results: 50% for annexation, turnout 30%, percent of Crimeans voting in favor 15%.

Putin's people pulled this "rather unfortunate" report from the President's Human Rights Council website, but council member Svetlana Gannushkina talked about this subject on Kanal 24 (as reproduced on Ukrainian television), declaring that the Crimean vote "discredited Russia more than could be dreamed up by a foreign agent."

Putin plans to repeat the Crimean election farce in the May 11 referendum on the status of the so-called People's Republic of Donetsk. He will use the same tricks to produce an overwhelming vote for "independence" and a high turnout. The few international election monitors will object, but Putin counts on repetition of his Big Lie to convince his own people and sympathetic politicians and press in the West that the people of east Ukraine actually want to separate from Ukraine.

Will the West let Putin get away with it again?

[Tapper]

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:33 PM, said:

 Tapper, on 25 April 2014 - 05:24 PM, said:

 HoosierDaddy, on 25 April 2014 - 05:13 PM, said:

As far as I recall, the agreement you refer to Tapper guarantees independence, but does nothing to guarantee a response by a signing member to enforce said independence. Thus it is as binding as the UN's mutual defense understanding or the Kellogg-Briand Pact.

True. I know it's just a tearing of paper, but
a) it precludes Russia from invading Ukraine as a signee,
with the admission that Russian personell had been operating on the Crimea, there is now a 'cause' to reply to that makes this different from, say, the Kosovo war Putin consistently refers to as unlawful meddling by the west.

I didn't know that an official Russian source had admitted to involvement in the Crimean affair. It is certainly a casus belli for Ukraine and refutation of said agreement prima facie by Russia. Thus, any acts globally to sanction Russia would have a very good legal basis, but as oft stated the real politiks and international will to do so are severely lacking.

I think Putin affirmed it during a press conference, but it might be a less overt admission.

[Mentalist]

 cerveza_fiesta, on 06 May 2014 - 05:16 PM, said:

I almost hesitate to read this thread Ment, thinking you're going to be on here posting something about getting hurt in one of these scuffles, or that you'll stop posting altogether for good.


The insider reports are a captivating read, but it's good to know a fellow malazite is safe and sound despite the shitty situation there!


Media on our side of the pond is basically saying "all-out war". Even Reuters, which is usually pretty conservative with its headlines, is throwing around "war in Ukraine". From your perspective are things escalating or de-escalating as a result of these extreme events (like the incident in Odessa). Does it actually give anyone pause in the high-conflict areas or are they still waving their flags as hard as ever?

CF, once again, I'm writing all this from T-dot. it's just I spend most my waking hours glued to my smartphone for news updates, and I have Internet TV working in the background whilst I'm at work,

As for de-escalation-well, today SOUNDS like a big Moscow signal to de-escalate. But we'll see how Victory Day turns out.

As it stands, things are a mess, obviously. Odessa is a hot topic-since it turns out majority of those killed in the fire were, in fact, Odessans that belonged to the "anti-Maydan". And it now looks like they were maliciously herded into the Trade Union Building, and then got caught in the crossfire between the Maydan and Ultras on one side, who were incredibly pissed off with the fact that prior to that Colorados (a common nickname given to pro-Russians, seeing as they chose the black and orange "Georgian" ribbon as their symbol--and those are also the colours of the Colorado beetles, a common pest that ruins potato crops) were shooting them from point blank range using ranks of police for cover, and on the other side were the self-same "violent Colorads", who continued shooting and tossing Molotovs from the roof of the Trade Union Building.

There's an INCREDIBLE amount of accusations from both sides, with the official investigation favouring Maydan, and tossing out tidbits such as "the people that died in the fire were killed with a quick-acting poison gas". I am skeptical of such claims, since I genuinely believe that, although the whole thing probably WAS orchestrated, the Maydan is at least partially responsible for losing control. It's complicated, though, since obviously cops are the main target of blame, one of the police chiefs who was documented to be there was arrested this morning, allowed out on bail and then fled the country into Transnistria (where it just so happens his brother s the Minister of Interior (police) ) and is now wanted. There's been new police heads brought in, and a newly-formed volunteer Internal Troops batallion from Kyyiv came with him, as well as a new governor, who is close to Igor Kolomoyskyj--an oligarch, third-richest man in UA, and governor of Dnipropetrovsk who took a VERY pro-Unity position in the whole crisis. It would appear things MAY be settling down, but hard to say. On Saturday the old police "gave in" to a pro-Russian mob and freed 67 of those involved in the clashes. It's anyone's guess where it'll go from here.

In Donbass, things are touch and go, obviously. There's fighting and deaths every day around Slov'yansk--military publishes their losses, terrorists keep theirs quiet, but people are dying. it's a stalemate, because Uki troops refuse to take the fighting to residential areas, which gives terrorists the advantage of sorts. But on the other hand the military has essentially cut them off from the world, so it's a tradeoff.

in Luhansk there seems to be a standoff between separatists and a new police chief who seems firmly determined to hold the city, despite the fact that most locals would love to just slink away. There are also some serious cracks in the separatists' ranks with moderates trying to go through with the referendum to try to legitimize themselves in the eyes of the world, whereas more radical elements just want to take control everywhere by force, and are simply drunk on teh power gunsa nd non-interference by police give them. Crime has spiked. People are generally unhappy.

Something absolutely incomprehensible is going on in Mariupol'. There's a tug of war over the City Hall, with police minister regularly posting in his facebook about its "liberation", but mere hours afterwards, Colorados are already flying their flags over the building. Sometimes things get simply absurd-when about 2 weeks ago local ultras and Right Sector stormed the place at night and kicked out the separatists, the police mounted an operation that ended up... arresting the patriots and returning the building to separatists who were occupying it! There's definitely some deals with local elites going on, which just adds to the surreality of the whole thing. Separatists regularly sound alarms and start burning their tire barricades, and use the "mobilization" as excuse to loot banks and stores. The locals are tired of this, and there are now reports of "little men in black" (as opposed to " polite little green men", the tile given to pro-Russian militias that appeared first in Crimea and then Donbass), who are taking things into their own hands, capturing and disarming small Colorad grous. An odious leader of the "Radical Party"-a proclaimed ultra-radical, formerly opposition to Yanukovych party, Oleh Lyashko an MP and presidential candidate is reportedly working with them. Given there were strong indications Lyashko was originally a political project by old govt to ridicule and discredit opposition, it's hard to say how much stock should really be put in this. Mariupol is unquestionably an important city, an Azov Sea port and a huge metallurgy centre that isn't really part of Donbass proper, though it's assigned to Donetsk oblast administratively. it tended to be much less pro-Russian than Donbass proper and it should be easier to get Unity support there. That being said, its metallurgy enterprises have been taken over by Renat Akhmetov, who is the unquestionalble oligarch overlord of Donetsk Oblast, and no-one is really sure what his game is.

Right now, really everyone is waiting for Friday. Victory Day will really show what game Russia is planning. untill then further speculation can go on for hours and get nowhere.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 07 May 2014 - 11:27 PM