[Werthead]

The Russians are seething about the west Zaporizhzhia front, which has collapsed almost out of the blue. Ukraine has advanced along the Kakhovka Reservoir shoreline across a front some 20km wide, encircled one large Russian formation and pushed back others. The stress points at Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, Plavni, Pavlivka, and Novoyakovlivka are all highly vulnerable due to a lack of reinforcement in this sector. If Ukraine can take these, they can advance on Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky, and Kamenske, reversing most, if not all, of the gains Russia has made on this front in around two years, maybe more. Extremely fanciful, but if Ukraine can then take Vasylivka, the entire front starts to look very brittle.

It won't come to that, of course. Ukraine has a key problem in not being able to exploit these breakthroughs when they happen, they usually run out of steam after a successful assault that ultimately gets rolled back again within ~18 months. But gaining 18 months on any front is usually very worthwhile. Combined with the offensive action further east, these combined actions should push Russian forces significantly further away from Zaporizhzhia city, the biggest prize Russia wants to take (alongside the Donbas) before ending the war.

On the Hulyaipole front in eastern Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine continues to make solid gains. Russia appears to only have two airborne regiments available to shore up this front, whilst Ukraine has more forces moving, Russia seems to have chosen to accept losses of territory here to continue to focus on the Pokrovsk and Lyman fronts.

Some Russian bloggers lamenting that even with the apparent closing of the Pokrovsk pocket (still not completed yet though, and this one has a way of staying alive), to complete the conquest of Donbas may take mobilising another half-million troops, and the Kremlin does not seem willing to countenance that.

Unconfirmed claims that Ukrainian and French troops and trainers are present in northern Benin, advising local Tuareg groups on operations inside Niger. The Russian-backed Niger military junta is unhappy.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 07:26 PM