[Mentalist]

Oh, and by the way, US Senate gave 100 votes out of a hundred in support of Bill 28-28, which is basically "treat UA as an ally outside NATO and give them guns".

My take on it is, precisely because oil's falling to the point where US might start feeling the pinch, US is sending a clear signal to Putin along the lines of "fun time's over, we are beginning to get annoyed, let's wrap this up quickly, don't make us get serious".

If I'm correct, it'll get rammed thru Congress the same way tomorrow.

EDIT: fixed bill to read 28-28

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 12 December 2014 - 05:36 AM

[Terez]

Mentalist, on 12 December 2014 - 03:18 AM, said:

Oh, and by the way, US Senate gave 100 votes out of a hundred in support of Bill 20-28, which is basically "treat UA as an ally outside NATO and give them guns".

My take on it is, precisely because oil's falling to the point where US might start feeling the pinch, US is sending a clear signal to Putin along the lines of "fun time's over, we are beginning to get annoyed, let's wrap this up quickly, don't make us get serious".

If I'm correct, it'll get rammed thru Congress the same way tomorrow.

Hmm, where are you getting that from? I was confused because the main focus right now is a spending bill that just got passed in the House and which contains several amendments that Democrats find very objectionable, including an amendment which would repeal a provision in the Dodd-Frank financial reform that forced banks to increase capital requirements for high-risk derivatives trading in order to separate that risk from their federally insured deposits. There are some other objectionable amendments too, like one that raises the personal campaign contribution limit, but sneaky Republicans are feeling their oats and are likely to force the Democrats to provoke a government shutdown in order to put up a fight over this stuff. As I said, it passed the House, and now it goes to the Senate:

http://abcnews.go.co...ory?id=27543835

All I can find on the legislation you mentioned is this Congress page:

https://www.congress...enate-bill/2277

And this report from a senate committee, which is of course not the full Senate:

http://www.foreign.s...ort-act-of-2014

So either 1) I can't Google, or 2) Ukrainian news scooped all the English-language news, or 3) something got lost in translation.

[Mentalist]

http://www.foreign.s...-against-russia

I can see how may not have been a huge deal for the US. The news in UA was spread by a few ATO battalion commanders-cum-MPs, who've recently visited the States to lobby military aid and got the news from sympathetic senators + the one of the journos at Voice of America Ukraine, who's also been closely involved.

EDIT: yeah, google isn't being too helpful. took me a good 10 mins to finds a credible source. I note that the Senate page only displays activity up to 2 days ago, but not the previous day. My guess is it has't been updated yet ont he Congress page?

ANd I see that I gave teh wrong bill number which makes looking complicated.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 12 December 2014 - 05:37 AM

[Terez]

Yeah, must be. I searched regular Google and News Google and didn't see a thing; the link you gave should have come up before the one I gave from the same site. It's the kind of thing that would have made more news on a day when less was happening in DC. The news all day was about the budget, and behind that, still the torture report, and behind that, the congressional staffer walk-out for #blacklivesmatter.

[Gothos]

Soooo I read yesterday was the first 24hours without combat since the truce was motioned into being in September, and that troops are retreating across the border. Peace time now?

[Mentalist]

Gothos, on 12 December 2014 - 01:49 PM, said:

Soooo I read yesterday was the first 24hours without combat since the truce was motioned into being in September, and that troops are retreating across the border. Peace time now?

Questionable. First off, "Azov" is saying they've had 2 casualties while eliminating a sniper pair and their support squad, but it wasn't officially confirmed yet.

Secondly, there hasn't been any GRAD shelling in the last 24 h, true. UA troops are entrenched and they won't be retreating, I don't think.

Thirdly, the Pres is obcessed with his "peace plan", so he'll lobby it come hell or high water, regardless that he's the only one to believe it. Rada's next scheduled meeting is Dec 23rd, although next week there was supposed to be a vote on repealing the law that mandated UA's non-participation in any military block. Now it's being stalled "so as not to provoke things before Minsk" (since apparently there will be another round of talks)
There's reports of more infighting in the DNR, as Russian regulars are attempting to clean house.
The pres of the unrecognized South Ossetia has issued a statement, asking all Ossetian "volunteers" to come home. Given SO lives off Russian budget, it's telling.

Putin has to solve the logistic nightmare that is Crimea, before Sevastopol runs out of water. Also, RTS has fallen below 800 (it was 1150 in mid-November), which makes more and more people sell on margin calls, triggering further losses, whiich triggers MORE margin calls in a vicious spiral.

Russia needs a breather. But I wouldn't hold my breath for "peace".

[Mentalist]

Holee shit. Russia's having another "black Monday" RTS is down by like 7.5 percent and falling. It's around 730 now, once it hits 400 collapse becomes inevitable according to market gurus. Insane.

I know I owe the thread a weekend update, but I was busy, and most free time was taken up by translations. They should be up later today, and they do a decent job covering most of the week, so check them out. As I'm coming up on my vacation, I'll try do some of the older general interest articles as well during the holidays.

EDIT: RTS closed @ 10.12 percent loss in one calendar month it dropped by 32 percent, it lost 49 percent since January. Ruble's devalued 100 percent compared to the Dollar, and the Euro as well I think (over the year beginning exchange rates). 1 pound sells for 100 rubles.

Analysts are now guessing if the RTS will even make it to the new year.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 15 December 2014 - 05:39 PM

[Terez]

They just raised interest rates (in the middle of the night) from 10.5 to 17%. The hope is that it will save the ruble, even if it puts the Russian economy into a severe recession.

[Mentalist]

Terez, on 16 December 2014 - 12:47 AM, said:

They just raised interest rates (in the middle of the night) from 10.5 to 17%. The hope is that it will save the ruble, even if it puts the Russian economy into a severe recession.

Yeah, was about to post this. Analysts are predicting an imminent meltdown purely due to the market crash. Ruble did pull up a bit, but if the market starts off falling tomorrow, then more and more margin call sales will pile up, creating an avalanche effect.
Rumour has it, Rosneft has to pay off $30 billion worth of dollar debt by Friday, which is has to buy from Centrobank... and this is what prompted the collapse today (since oil was fairly stable for most of the day)

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 16 December 2014 - 04:40 AM

[Mentalist]

So, how did Russian Ruble respond to the rise in interest rates?

It rolled back 10 rubles on the dollar. For a few hours.

RTS closed just now with a drop of 12.4 percent-90 points to end @ 629. And this morning it was down to below 600 at one point. The euro hit 100 rubles, but since rolled back to official exchange rate of 89-92. Unofficially, Russians are arlrady posting echanger rates of over 100--in Yekaterinbur it's selling for 130 rubles per euro.

The ruble also plunged compared to the UAH, but UA's feeling the banking crisis, bc Russian banks are buying up currncy in UA as well, hiling up the exchange rates and flooding the market with toxic rubles.

Given that oil's resumed it's steady flow, I'm expecting ruble will continue to fall throughout the day, even though trading in Russia's done.

The trainwreck continues. Apparently, Russian evening news didn't feature a single storyabout UA, which is great news. All signs point to Russia now trying to force Ua to take back Donbass, with UA trying to get as much out of it as possible to sweeten the deal. Uki bloggers already talk about "return of Crimea and w trillion dollars in compensation". Russian bloggers post about a growing resentment towards Crimeans who "brought this upon all Russians".

Meanwhile, the "ceasefire" seems to be having some effect-iway less reports of Uki casualties as of yet. At the same time, the number of reports about "partisan" strikes behind enemy lines grows... and Russia doesn't seem to keen to send more assistance anymore.

[Nicodimas]

This is nuts..watching this freefall in action. I am surprised this hasn't resulted in a lashing out/violently...

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 16 December 2014 - 06:45 PM

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 16 December 2014 - 06:43 PM, said:

This is nuts..watching this freefall in action. I am surprised this hasn't resulted in a lashing out/violently...

Right now middle class russians are storming retail stores, buying up furniture appliances naand electronics before the retailer adjust prices to reflect rubles drop. Evryone is getting rid of rubles before they go more worthless. The real reaction will bve once food prices start to skyrocket.

[Nicodimas]

After really thinking this over..All the bills, manipulation, the military resources moved, the economic withdrawls from the West toward Russia.

This is a true de-facto trade War. I see them crashing and I honestly didn't think it would be such a quick snap. Not like this hasn't happened before, but you got Putin at the helm and different people in true control of Washington. I sit here looking out at what is occurring. I honestly don't know what occurs next as the next steps may defy logic altogether. I think Historians will make a note of this.

Hopefully some leadership and sanity reigns..this could spin out of control

[Terez]

Yeah, the OPEC gambit appears to be entirely unconnected to the Russian sanctions, but I'm not so sure that's the case any more. It's also a political boon for Obama, who is fighting Keystone XL, so who knows what is going on behind the scenes? I hope I'm not venturing into conspiracy territory here... ...but this one is believable.

[Nicodimas]

Terez, on 17 December 2014 - 12:39 AM, said:

Yeah, the OPEC gambit appears to be entirely unconnected to the Russian sanctions, but I'm not so sure that's the case any more. It's also a political boon for Obama, who is fighting Keystone XL, so who knows what is going on behind the scenes? I hope I'm not venturing into conspiracy territory here... ...but this one is believable.

I think it's all right there and I am sure everything going on behind the scenes is Putin is not getting any sleep until this resolves.

I read that the average Russian went from 15.5k/yr to 4.8k/yr in this timeframe! That's gotta be brutal.

Musing: Will this force Russia/China in the same camp completely from the West..I know this is already happening, but more-so.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 17 December 2014 - 01:01 AM

[Mentalist]

Nicodimas, on 17 December 2014 - 01:00 AM, said:

Terez, on 17 December 2014 - 12:39 AM, said:

Yeah, the OPEC gambit appears to be entirely unconnected to the Russian sanctions, but I'm not so sure that's the case any more. It's also a political boon for Obama, who is fighting Keystone XL, so who knows what is going on behind the scenes? I hope I'm not venturing into conspiracy territory here... ...but this one is believable.

I think it's all right there and I am sure everything going on behind the scenes is Putin is not getting any sleep until this resolves.

I read that the average Russian went from 15.5k/yr to 4.8k/yr in this timeframe! That's gotta be brutal.

Musing: Will this force Russia/China in the same camp completely from the West..I know this is already happening, but more-so.

some food for thought:
Russia recently asked China to do trade in national currencies.
China turned them down, b/c "the ruble is too volatile"
This week China approached Kazakhstan with an offer to do trade in national currencies. The deal is practically done.

There can be no alliance between Russia and China, because China sees Russia as food. And Russians are still stuck in their own little world where they are an earth-quaciqing superpower and they have a destiny to spread "Russian World" around.

EDIT: as for my own little bit of speculation: Putin's supposed to do his Big Yearly Press-Conference on Thur.
I have a nagging feeling, shit will hit the fan there. I have 0 proof of this, but I'm feeling there might be a coup in the works.
If, God forbid, I am right... things will get interesting fast.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 December 2014 - 01:29 AM

[Mentalist]

Hrm. Meltdown temporarily averted?

RTS bounced back up to almost 720, i.e, it made up yesterday's losses.
Ruble sitting pretty at just over half what it was worth in January, and it's a "victory", as it represents a rollback of about 10 %for the USD, and 13% for the EUR. Speculations abound how much cash centrobank injected to achiev the rollback. Supposedly it's been done to keep the rate under control prior to VVH's press conference tom. We shall see.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 17 December 2014 - 06:13 PM

[Nicodimas]

I am waiting to see how it goes. Just because of the massive percentage up is no indication anything changed. Who was on buying side of this equation..the .gov type situation?

I guess we will know more tomorrow. Miscalculation's on actions and that stuff.

[Mentalist]

welp, http://rt.com/usa/21...ssia-sanctions/
Ironic that RT is the first to talk about it.

[Terez]

Mentalist, on 17 December 2014 - 06:12 PM, said:

Hrm. Meltdown temporarily averted?

RTS bounced back up to almost 720, i.e, it made up yesterday's losses.

This is pretty typical when any important market plunges; there is usually a temporary recovery as some people with money attempt to shore up the market to protect their own investments. Like you said, we'll see how this goes.