[Mentalist]

The orcs are diverting everything they can to the S. Apparently (according to Tom Cooper), they are pulling 4 VDV divisions there.

So, naturally, UAF is attacking elsewhere. S of Bakhmut it seems the line of Klischiyivka-Andriyivka-Kurdyumivka has been decisively pushed back to the Horlivka-Bakhmut railway line.

What we are hearing today is straight-up panic from DNR, though. As apparently a UAF counter-attack succeeded in liberating Opytne, a village to the N of the landing strip of the Donets'k airport.

This would basically mean all the progress the orcs have made over the past 18 months to "semi-encircle" Avdiyivka from the S has been largely undone. Which would be quite something, as we're essentially back to sieging Donets'k city across the old Contact Line.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 10 September 2023 - 09:31 PM

[Werthead]

Sounds like Ukraine has also taken additional territory W and NW of Robotyne, pushing the Russians back from having fire control over the supply routes into Robotyne.

[Mentalist]

HUR posting videos of recapturing the "Boyko towers"- the self-propelled oil and gas rigs in the NW black Sea between Odessa and Crimea, that were stolen by the orcs in 2014 when they anschlussed the peninsula.

Since the outbreak of the war, they've been using them as helicopter layover points and for surveillance. Although it's suicidal to keep a garrison there (since both sides have long-range capabilities to target them from shore), our SSO troops were able to raid them, take down the aqua-fresh rags, and also to take valuable radar and surveillance equipment as trophies. Should make the orcs' presence in our quarter of the Black Sea even more tenuous.

[Mentalist]

Primary Black sea Fleet Shipyard in Sevastopol', SevMorZavod is on fire. The Gauleiter of occupied city is claiming there were 10 cruise missiles, 7 got shot down, but 3 hit.

"2 vessels that were undergoing repairs" are reported by the Orc MoD as "having sustained additional damage".

The videos we've seen of the pretty explosions are quite spectacular. Will be interesting to see the fallout.

The big question is which missiles these were: Storm Shadow/SCALP, the rumoured ATACMs, or the home-made Hrim-2?

Edit: now there's Rumors we may have hit one of the 4 subs capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.

Would be extremely neat, if true.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 13 September 2023 - 06:59 AM

[Werthead]

The state of the Kilo-class submarine is unknown, but it definitely took a major hit. The Ropucha-class landing vessel is gone. The surface structures have all been blown off or set ablaze and it's listing even in its dock. The parts needed are all Polish, so good luck getting those again.

[Lady Bliss]

Does anyone think Putin will really aid Norh Korea in nuclear technology? I can’t imagine he really wants a neighbor to improve their technology. I almost think Putin will try to take the ammo and run.

[Abyss]

Lady Bliss, on 13 September 2023 - 12:19 PM, said:

Does anyone think Putin will really aid Norh Korea in nuclear technology? I can't imagine he really wants a neighbor to improve their technology. I almost think Putin will try to take the ammo and run.

He'll provide 'assistance', but - just a guess - he won't tip the balance to the point where North Korea is long range nuclear capable. Too many ways that can backfire on Russia.

...no pun intended.
...no, not the other pun either.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 13 September 2023 - 06:11 AM, said:

Primary Black sea Fleet Shipyard in Sevastopol', SevMorZavod is on fire. The Gauleiter of occupied city is claiming there were 10 cruise missiles, 7 got shot down, but 3 hit.

"2 vessels that were undergoing repairs" are reported by the Orc MoD as "having sustained additional damage".

The videos we've seen of the pretty explosions are quite spectacular. Will be interesting to see the fallout.

The big question is which missiles these were: Storm Shadow/SCALP, the rumoured ATACMs, or the home-made Hrim-2?

Edit: now there's Rumors we may have hit one of the 4 subs capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.

Would be extremely neat, if true.

Abyss, on 13 September 2023 - 01:36 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 13 September 2023 - 12:19 PM, said:

Does anyone think Putin will really aid Norh Korea in nuclear technology? I can't imagine he really wants a neighbor to improve their technology. I almost think Putin will try to take the ammo and run.

He'll provide 'assistance', but - just a guess - he won't tip the balance to the point where North Korea is long range nuclear capable. Too many ways that can backfire on Russia.

...no pun intended.
...no, not the other pun either.

Speaking of puns, i ack the seriousness of this, but the fact that a nuclear missile base was taken down by Storm Shadow sent my inner child running around the room singing the GI Joe theme.

[Mentalist]

Abyss, on 13 September 2023 - 01:37 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 13 September 2023 - 06:11 AM, said:

Primary Black sea Fleet Shipyard in Sevastopol', SevMorZavod is on fire. The Gauleiter of occupied city is claiming there were 10 cruise missiles, 7 got shot down, but 3 hit.

"2 vessels that were undergoing repairs" are reported by the Orc MoD as "having sustained additional damage".

The videos we've seen of the pretty explosions are quite spectacular. Will be interesting to see the fallout.

The big question is which missiles these were: Storm Shadow/SCALP, the rumoured ATACMs, or the home-made Hrim-2?

Edit: now there's Rumors we may have hit one of the 4 subs capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.

Would be extremely neat, if true.

Abyss, on 13 September 2023 - 01:36 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 13 September 2023 - 12:19 PM, said:

Does anyone think Putin will really aid Norh Korea in nuclear technology? I can't imagine he really wants a neighbor to improve their technology. I almost think Putin will try to take the ammo and run.

He'll provide 'assistance', but - just a guess - he won't tip the balance to the point where North Korea is long range nuclear capable. Too many ways that can backfire on Russia.

...no pun intended.
...no, not the other pun either.

Speaking of puns, i ack the seriousness of this, but the fact that a nuclear missile base was taken down by Storm Shadow sent my inner child running around the room singing the GI Joe theme.

The Kilo was a diesel sub, and Kalibrs aren't nuclear, afaik.

I believe the Black Sea is a denucliarized zone, but I could be wrong on that.

[Werthead]

Lady Bliss, on 13 September 2023 - 12:19 PM, said:

Does anyone think Putin will really aid Norh Korea in nuclear technology? I can’t imagine he really wants a neighbor to improve their technology. I almost think Putin will try to take the ammo and run.

China is apparently not entirely happy with the situation. China sees the status quo on the Korean Peninsula as in its interest for the time being (despite medium-to-long term ambitions to remove US influence from Asia altogether). Anything that leads to North Korea getting the idea of starting a nuclear war in China's backyard is to be strenuously avoided. China also sees itself as North Korea's protector and best friend, and is wary of anything that happens with North Korea that bypasses China.

That said, if this means Russia can shoulder some of the costs of propping up North Korea that currently partially rests with China, they might see benefits in that, as with North Korea relaxing the paranoid stance it took at the start of the pandemic which shut out even a lot of Chinese trade and goods (and has brought North Korea to the brink of a famine potentially worse than the one in the 1990s).

But yeah, it's a delicate situation. Russia and China both think that North Korea is off the reservation by their standards and were enforcing UN sanctions on the country pretty recently. Deciding to back away from that, even for geopolitical reasons to their advantage, is a big step.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 September 2023 - 11:22 PM

[Mentalist]

HQ's morning brief slide had to include a new category - for destroyed submarines.

I am amused.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a large fixed AA battery in Yevpatoriya, Crimea. A low-flying UAV evaded air defences - they didn't even seem to fire - and blew up the battery with a single direct hit. There's also reports of a larger swarm drone attack that took out a S400 site elsewhere in Crimea.

Russia's 42nd Division has fallen back on the southern Bakhmut front, citing lack of artillery cover. A war blogger has said that over 800 Russian troops have gone AWOL in the nearby forests, and others are refusing to fight until they get artillery cover. Ukrainian tanks have been advancing unopposed in some areas there.

Ukraine estimates that Russian casualties now surpass 270,000 in number, with 600 killed or disabled in combat yesterday alone.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 14 September 2023 - 10:33 AM, said:

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a large fixed AA battery in Yevpatoriya, Crimea. A low-flying UAV evaded air defences - they didn't even seem to fire - and blew up the battery with a single direct hit. There's also reports of a larger swarm drone attack that took out a S400 site elsewhere in Crimea.

Russia's 42nd Division has fallen back on the southern Bakhmut front, citing lack of artillery cover. A war blogger has said that over 800 Russian troops have gone AWOL in the nearby forests, and others are refusing to fight until they get artillery cover. Ukrainian tanks have been advancing unopposed in some areas there.

Ukraine estimates that Russian casualties now surpass 270,000 in number, with 600 killed or disabled in combat yesterday alone.

S-400 was part of the Yevpatoria strike. The drones hit the radars, and then the Neptune missiles came in, striking the command center and some of the launchers.

Regarding S of Bakhmut, the 3rd Assault brigade is insisting they are still "mopping up" both Klischiyivka and Andriyivka. Even though according to some, there's an info lag, and in reality they've been pushing E from the railway for over a week now. So who knows.

EDIT: It looks like Romania is going to be shooting down mopeds trying to fly upstream the Danube to attack Izmail and Reni harbors.


I guess that 3rd Shahed drone that fell on Romanian soil was one too many.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 14 September 2023 - 05:47 PM

[Werthead]

Various sources have confirmed that a Russian Su-27 which undertook an "unsafe weapons release" over the Black Sea in the vicinity of an RAF observation aircraft actually straight-up fired on it after getting a confused message from ground control. The second pilot apparently intervened to stop him firing again, but the first weapon failed to acquire lock. After furious behind-the-scenes negotiations, the US and UK agreed to accept a Russian cover story of a technical malfunction. It's unclear in return for what, but there has not been a similar interception of UK aircraft since (which are now all escorted by fighters).

[Mentalist]

Andriyivka confirmed liberated by the HQ.

Klischiyivka not yet official, but the Belorussian Regiment posted vids of their medics walking through the village ruins, suggesting no immediate enemy presence. (EDIT: and now the video got taken down)



Not sure how much momentum the 3rd Assault and the units assisting them can maintain here (S of Bakhmut) without any additional forces being committed. Considering the orcs are tossing their reserves and the VDV to plug the holes in the S, it would be a good chance to make some gains towards the line Popasna-Svitlodarsk, and isolate Bakhmut; but I'm not sure Zaluzhny will go for this.

[Werthead]

Rumours that Kadyrov is in a coma. Not the first time he's been reported to be at death's door and then pops up fine (and some reports he likes to spread these rumours himself and then discredit them for giggles), but this seems a bit more widespread than normal.

Kadyrov is known to enjoy a hedonistic lifestyle and has often posted TikToks and other social media posts whilst drunk or clearly on one substance or another, so it wouldn't be too surprising if he had suddenly overindulged. To go out at 46 would be quite startling, though.

If Kadyrov was to bow out, that would create a sizeable headache for Putin. Other army units are angry that the Chechen units fighting for Russia restrict themselves to rear echelon areas, taking pictures and social media posts and getting into punch-ups with other units (last year there was a full-on riot between a detachment of Buryatian troops and Chechens refusing to go to the front with them as ordered). Recently some Chechen units have seen combat on the front lines, but in some cases by accident (being in an apparently safe area that suddenly comes under attack). There is reportedly internal disagreement within Chechnya over how full-throttled their support for Moscow should be. Some Chechen forces are actually fighting on the Ukrainian side, and their contacts back in Chechnya seem to be still free and in some cases are still holding talks with Kadyrov, suggesting that for all of Kadyrov's talk of being "Putin's infantryman," he's actually hedging his bets. He's also more than once said that Chechnya's current loyalty is to Putin personally and not the Kremlin. The Chechen nationalist spirit is still very strong and there's a constant argument being had in Grozny circles about when/if they should declare independence once more. With Dagestan next door in flames for part of the summer and Georgia to their backs who might support an independence gambit, and Azerbaijan nearby who have pretty firmly left the Russian orbit for the Turkish one, Chechens do have an opportunity here that might not come again for a long time.

Of course, it might be that this is all BS and Kadyrov turns up fine tomorrow, or he does die but the next person to take over maintains the status quo, so ultimately it doesn't amount to much.

[Mentalist]

Some Chechen activists are saying he croaked. He posted a video saying he's alive, but I'm waiting for metatags

Either way, nothing major.

Meanwhile UAF freed Klischiyivka

[Werthead]

Kodema is under attack, it appears long-range artillery and missiles so far, but Ukraine is hammering that area. If Ukraine plans to push on to Zaitseve, which makes sense, that's a good move. That also puts Ukrainian forces south-east of Bakhmut, which is bonkers (and also excellent).

Something going on in Crimea. Some reports that Russia's entire air defence network - or what's left of it - is going hammer and tong over SW, S and SE Crimea, and the Kerch Strait Bridge has been closed. Not a lot of video (some very blurry stuff), but apparently Russian police and the FSB has been cracking down on anyone posting pictures of Crimea at all after Ukraine geolocated and blew up that S-400 system from tourist selfies last week.

Some reports of 3-6 UAVs active over SW Crimea but the response seems disproportionately excessive.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 17 September 2023 - 07:32 PM, said:

Kodema is under attack, it appears long-range artillery and missiles so far, but Ukraine is hammering that area. If Ukraine plans to push on to Zaitseve, which makes sense, that's a good move. That also puts Ukrainian forces south-east of Bakhmut, which is bonkers (and also excellent).

Something going on in Crimea. Some reports that Russia's entire air defence network - or what's left of it - is going hammer and tong over SW, S and SE Crimea, and the Kerch Strait Bridge has been closed. Not a lot of video (some very blurry stuff), but apparently Russian police and the FSB has been cracking down on anyone posting pictures of Crimea at all after Ukraine geolocated and blew up that S-400 system from tourist selfies last week.

Some reports of 3-6 UAVs active over SW Crimea but the response seems disproportionately excessive.

They had 4 S-400 batteries covering Crimea. At least 2 are out. The fresh explosion from Sevastopol might be indicative of no3 being dunzo. That leaves only one around Feodosiya, which is responsible for SE of the peninsula and can't adequately cover the western coast.

[Mentalist]

Azeris have been gathering forces around Karabakh for a few months now, and today they went hot, declaring the next stage of the "anti-terrorist operation". This time the goal appears to be the capital city of the region, Stepanakert.

Previously, Erdogan pledged support to Baku, Russia (Armenia's ally in ODKB) basically ghosted Yerevan, while Iran promised to intervene on Armenia's side--which prompted interest and concern from Israel.

While the West formally recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, France and the US have strong Armenian diaspora that lobby for the status quo as the only way to avoid another Armenian ethnic cleansing and expulsion.

launching a new op during a UN General Assembly session is certainly a bold move.