[Tattersail_]

I've read enough to think that HO is the killer and Lady Bliss is the symp. It could be reversed but the way things have played out it's unlikely.

Vote Hidden One

I'll change my vote to her if it approaches time out and no one is around, just to get the lynch in but I think the game will end when we get the Killer.

[Silencer]

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

[Tattersail_]

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

Well the reveal was done in a way where he wanted to get away with it. Why reveal? We won't know until after the game is finished. It was very much like symp play, so why did he do it? To protect Blend of course because Blend was almost lynched day one. Also Blend is confirmed scum with his parting sentences. Look at the interactions from HO and Lady Bliss and there is something not right there. Also when people voted The Dude OR HO Blend voted for me, why? One reason i can see is that he knew HO was his partner but didn't want to vote off his symp..

[Tattersail_]

^ ie the Dude (the symp)

[Silencer]

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

Well the reveal was done in a way where he wanted to get away with it. Why reveal? We won't know until after the game is finished. It was very much like symp play, so why did he do it? To protect Blend of course because Blend was almost lynched day one. Also Blend is confirmed scum with his parting sentences.

It's the principle of the thing. We have to look for reasons before we can be sold on an idea - and the Dude just doesn't have motivations in the scenarios I've mentioned. That concerns me, as it is a weakness in the case. You are surely better to play a longer game in either instance? His move was one of last resort, or desperation, and yet it came early in the game and the day. Thinking it through would have yielded him more options. And he barely even tried to defend himself - I'd already been over his reveal with a fine tooth comb so he surely knew it would not get Blend off the hook sufficiently.

Quote

Look at the interactions from HO and Lady Bliss and there is something not right there. Also when people voted The Dude OR HO Blend voted for me, why? One reason i can see is that he knew HO was his partner but didn't want to vote off his symp..

Which has the obvious flaw that a killer knows their symp. Uncommon in a regular game, but defeating the purpose of only having one symp know one master and moreover making the game once more woefully imbalanced against town in this one. Now a killer could have figured out who their symp was - but killers don't protect symps unnecessarily for the very reason that it links back to them. And taking that risk is extreme, especially if you think you've figured your symp early in the game. Some players will pick others to fake-symp in the hopes of getting reactions/lynchings, after all. And in this game it would be a decent way to reveal Finder info without claiming.


I hate to be pedantic given the time constraints, but I'm a stickler for detail and this bears careful thought.

I'll be looking at the actual Lady Bliss case in a bit.

[Tattersail_]

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

Well the reveal was done in a way where he wanted to get away with it. Why reveal? We won't know until after the game is finished. It was very much like symp play, so why did he do it? To protect Blend of course because Blend was almost lynched day one. Also Blend is confirmed scum with his parting sentences.

It's the principle of the thing. We have to look for reasons before we can be sold on an idea - and the Dude just doesn't have motivations in the scenarios I've mentioned. That concerns me, as it is a weakness in the case. You are surely better to play a longer game in either instance? His move was one of last resort, or desperation, and yet it came early in the game and the day. Thinking it through would have yielded him more options. And he barely even tried to defend himself - I'd already been over his reveal with a fine tooth comb so he surely knew it would not get Blend off the hook sufficiently.

Quote

Look at the interactions from HO and Lady Bliss and there is something not right there. Also when people voted The Dude OR HO Blend voted for me, why? One reason i can see is that he knew HO was his partner but didn't want to vote off his symp..

Which has the obvious flaw that a killer knows their symp. Uncommon in a regular game, but defeating the purpose of only having one symp know one master and moreover making the game once more woefully imbalanced against town in this one. Now a killer could have figured out who their symp was - but killers don't protect symps unnecessarily for the very reason that it links back to them. And taking that risk is extreme, especially if you think you've figured your symp early in the game. Some players will pick others to fake-symp in the hopes of getting reactions/lynchings, after all. And in this game it would be a decent way to reveal Finder info without claiming.


I hate to be pedantic given the time constraints, but I'm a stickler for detail and this bears careful thought.

I'll be looking at the actual Lady Bliss case in a bit.

Okay two things spring to mind reading your post. The first is the "knowing your symp", if the Dude did what he did to protect Blend then Blend would know this, therefore not wanting to vote for him.

The second is that if you think the Dude reveal genuine then that also paints HO as the killer.

[Silencer]

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:57 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

Well the reveal was done in a way where he wanted to get away with it. Why reveal? We won't know until after the game is finished. It was very much like symp play, so why did he do it? To protect Blend of course because Blend was almost lynched day one. Also Blend is confirmed scum with his parting sentences.

It's the principle of the thing. We have to look for reasons before we can be sold on an idea - and the Dude just doesn't have motivations in the scenarios I've mentioned. That concerns me, as it is a weakness in the case. You are surely better to play a longer game in either instance? His move was one of last resort, or desperation, and yet it came early in the game and the day. Thinking it through would have yielded him more options. And he barely even tried to defend himself - I'd already been over his reveal with a fine tooth comb so he surely knew it would not get Blend off the hook sufficiently.

Quote

Look at the interactions from HO and Lady Bliss and there is something not right there. Also when people voted The Dude OR HO Blend voted for me, why? One reason i can see is that he knew HO was his partner but didn't want to vote off his symp..

Which has the obvious flaw that a killer knows their symp. Uncommon in a regular game, but defeating the purpose of only having one symp know one master and moreover making the game once more woefully imbalanced against town in this one. Now a killer could have figured out who their symp was - but killers don't protect symps unnecessarily for the very reason that it links back to them. And taking that risk is extreme, especially if you think you've figured your symp early in the game. Some players will pick others to fake-symp in the hopes of getting reactions/lynchings, after all. And in this game it would be a decent way to reveal Finder info without claiming.


I hate to be pedantic given the time constraints, but I'm a stickler for detail and this bears careful thought.

I'll be looking at the actual Lady Bliss case in a bit.

Okay two things spring to mind reading your post. The first is the "knowing your symp", if the Dude did what he did to protect Blend then Blend would know this, therefore not wanting to vote for him.

The second is that if you think the Dude reveal genuine then that also paints HO as the killer.

Blend wouldn't know jack shit - because the Dude would then be pointing the finger AT BLEND'S PARTNER assuming you're right about HiddenOne. So, again, unless the killers had knowledge of their symps and the limitations on their symps Blend would not have figured it out from that play. And again would not have figured it out because it wasn't a sensible play to protect Blend at the time the Dude made it. Now, if HO WAS NOT Blend's partner, THEN Blend might have figured it out (or assumed) that the Dude was Blend's symp. But that hardly leads to us voting HO now does it?

As for the second, yes that would follow. However I don't believe the Dude's reveal was genuine. XD


Put that way, your scenario doesn't really make all that much sense any more...O.o

[Tattersail_]

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:57 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

There's only about six hours left about now, correct?

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 10:03 AM, said:

Okay so this little interaction strikes me as symp and killer talking to one and other. HO asking Lady Bliss for her thoughts.


*snip*

Early on she is pointing out Tapper as her lynch choice. If Lady B is a symp BUT only knows HO is the killer and Blend was a killer BUT the Dude only knew him then this could fit perfectly. There would be your four scum team. Just thinking this through it makes a bit of sense that two symps may only know one boss each.

The only objection I really have to this case is this: what sort of symp, knowing only one killer in the game, would fake reveal against a (presumably random) player on day two for no real reason? I follow the logic of having a four-scum-team setup where the symps only know one killer each, that makes sense (though it is still marginally unbalanced, numbers-wise): the thing that doesn't make sense to me is that the Dude, who is not exactly a gung-ho "fuck 'em all" kinda guy, if I'm recalling correctly, would then have made a very risky play indeed.

Are you implying that the symps didn't know there were two killers at all? And even then, if the Dude had thought about his reveal, and he only thought there was one other scum in the game, then surely he would have thought his sacrifice was way too early and way too damaging to make - because we would have lynched half of the scum team by day three and it would have been 1 v 7. Which is atrocious odds.

So I guess my query is really one of player personality - either the Dude took a large gamble and did his best to aim for someone not the other killer on day two in the hopes of saving Blend (who was not the only or most likely lynch target that day, and had alternative escape routes) or he took a MASSIVE gamble and essentially voluntarily fucked his own team over for no reason at all. Which doesn't sound like the Dude.

Well the reveal was done in a way where he wanted to get away with it. Why reveal? We won't know until after the game is finished. It was very much like symp play, so why did he do it? To protect Blend of course because Blend was almost lynched day one. Also Blend is confirmed scum with his parting sentences.

It's the principle of the thing. We have to look for reasons before we can be sold on an idea - and the Dude just doesn't have motivations in the scenarios I've mentioned. That concerns me, as it is a weakness in the case. You are surely better to play a longer game in either instance? His move was one of last resort, or desperation, and yet it came early in the game and the day. Thinking it through would have yielded him more options. And he barely even tried to defend himself - I'd already been over his reveal with a fine tooth comb so he surely knew it would not get Blend off the hook sufficiently.

Quote

Look at the interactions from HO and Lady Bliss and there is something not right there. Also when people voted The Dude OR HO Blend voted for me, why? One reason i can see is that he knew HO was his partner but didn't want to vote off his symp..

Which has the obvious flaw that a killer knows their symp. Uncommon in a regular game, but defeating the purpose of only having one symp know one master and moreover making the game once more woefully imbalanced against town in this one. Now a killer could have figured out who their symp was - but killers don't protect symps unnecessarily for the very reason that it links back to them. And taking that risk is extreme, especially if you think you've figured your symp early in the game. Some players will pick others to fake-symp in the hopes of getting reactions/lynchings, after all. And in this game it would be a decent way to reveal Finder info without claiming.


I hate to be pedantic given the time constraints, but I'm a stickler for detail and this bears careful thought.

I'll be looking at the actual Lady Bliss case in a bit.

Okay two things spring to mind reading your post. The first is the "knowing your symp", if the Dude did what he did to protect Blend then Blend would know this, therefore not wanting to vote for him.

The second is that if you think the Dude reveal genuine then that also paints HO as the killer.

Blend wouldn't know jack shit - because the Dude would then be pointing the finger AT BLEND'S PARTNER assuming you're right about HiddenOne. So, again, unless the killers had knowledge of their symps and the limitations on their symps Blend would not have figured it out from that play. And again would not have figured it out because it wasn't a sensible play to protect Blend at the time the Dude made it. Now, if HO WAS NOT Blend's partner, THEN Blend might have figured it out (or assumed) that the Dude was Blend's symp. But that hardly leads to us voting HO now does it?

As for the second, yes that would follow. However I don't believe the Dude's reveal was genuine. XD


Put that way, your scenario doesn't really make all that much sense any more...O.o

Read up on the LB case as well. I do think you are over thinking it. I think you are going back and forth in your head, second guessing yourself. We don't have much time left today but your thoughts are appreciated.

[HiddenOne]

back in

Tatts, you are persistent, I will always give you that - even when you're wrong. Everything you're saying about me is based on complete speculation. I'll retort in a bit.

[Silencer]

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Read up on the LB case as well. I do think you are over thinking it. I think you are going back and forth in your head, second guessing yourself. We don't have much time left today but your thoughts are appreciated.

It doesn't detract anything from your original case - just completely and utterly invalidates your theory about why Blend voted you all the time. The fact that such a reason is even in your consideration makes me think you're still on the "voted for me = evil" train of thought, though...

[Tattersail_]

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 01:01 PM, said:

Tattersail, on 25 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Read up on the LB case as well. I do think you are over thinking it. I think you are going back and forth in your head, second guessing yourself. We don't have much time left today but your thoughts are appreciated.

It doesn't detract anything from your original case - just completely and utterly invalidates your theory about why Blend voted you all the time. The fact that such a reason is even in your consideration makes me think you're still on the "voted for me = evil" train of thought, though...

No I was just adding it into the mix. I was catching up as I went along but in the mindset that they are all scum ha.

How long do we have

[Tattersail_]

HiddenOne, on 25 January 2013 - 12:37 PM, said:

back in

Tatts, you are persistent, I will always give you that - even when you're wrong. Everything you're saying about me is based on complete speculation. I'll retort in a bit.

Much appreciated, the faster the better.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 3 hours and 20 minutes remaining
7 Players still alive: Bonecaster, Hiddenone, Hinter, Lady Bliss, Silencer, Tapper, Tattersail

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Hiddenone ( Tattersail )
1 Vote for Tapper ( Lady Bliss )
2 Votes for Lady Bliss ( Tapper, Hinter )

Players not voted: Bonecaster, Hiddenone, Silencer

[Bonecaster]

vote Hiddenone

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 3 hours and 2 minutes remaining
7 Players still alive: Bonecaster, Hiddenone, Hinter, Lady Bliss, Silencer, Tapper, Tattersail

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Hiddenone ( Tattersail, Bonecaster )
1 Vote for Tapper ( Lady Bliss )
2 Votes for Lady Bliss ( Tapper, Hinter )

Players not voted: Hiddenone, Silencer

[Silencer]

I don't think the case on HiddenOne is strong enough to risk a vote. It's waaaay to circumstantial and predicated on a convoluted chain of links and theories that fall down in several ways on closer inspection. At the very least we can safely assume that if there was no kill last night we're not looking at a D-day scenario now. So with that in mind I'll vote for the (marginally) better case that Lady Bliss is a symp:

Vote Lady Bliss

[Silencer]

Bonecaster, on 25 January 2013 - 01:49 PM, said:

vote Hiddenone

Well I can see you've put a lot of thought and reasoning behind that vote. >.>

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5. 2 hours and 59 minutes remaining
7 Players still alive: Bonecaster, Hiddenone, Hinter, Lady Bliss, Silencer, Tapper, Tattersail

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

2 Votes for Hiddenone ( Tattersail, Bonecaster )
1 Vote for Tapper ( Lady Bliss )
3 Votes for Lady Bliss ( Tapper, Hinter, Silencer )

Players not voted: Hiddenone

[Tattersail_]

Silencer, on 25 January 2013 - 01:51 PM, said:

I don't think the case on HiddenOne is strong enough to risk a vote. It's waaaay to circumstantial and predicated on a convoluted chain of links and theories that fall down in several ways on closer inspection. At the very least we can safely assume that if there was no kill last night we're not looking at a D-day scenario now. So with that in mind I'll vote for the (marginally) better case that Lady Bliss is a symp:

Vote Lady Bliss

So what made you choose her over HO? Do you think she is?

[Tattersail_]

aargh, am I going to regret this? I'm leaning on your reasoning skills here Silencer.

remove vote

Vote Lady bliss