sorry this is messy
Telas, on 02 August 2012 - 12:58 AM, said:
Okay, in the interest of saving time and being transparent, I want to disclose that the following is paraphrased from my own thought-vomit I sent to SH, only somewhat organized. Keep in mind that I know I am town (you don't so you shouldn't trust me there) so all the theorizing below is made from my perspective.
I think that right now, Atrahal is unlikely scum. If he was scum, it would have to jive with Kalse's actions--which means that:
a.) Tellan or Rashan is Atrahal's partner. Tellan jumped right onto Atrahal right at the start of this day, so I don't see an Atrahal / Tellan pairing making any sense whatsoever. Rashan has also had Atrahal at the top of his list of suspicions as well, albeit he has only said anything relevant to Atrahal at all since he was already at L-2. Nevertheless, I don't think Atrahal's partner would do that--it'd be really ballsy but not in his best interest.
b.) Kalse was fake-symping both Tellan and Rashan, in which case Tellan, Rashan, and Kaschan have to be inno, and the possible partners for Atrahal are Liosan or Sorrit. Liosan is the other vote on the Atrahal train, which didn't have much voting momentum behind it until Liosan voted--if Liosan/Atrahal was the pairing Liosan could have joined the Tellan train. Sorrit has expressed some uncertainty on the Atrahal train, so that is a question mark.
tl;dr: Atrahal probably isn't scum, unless Kalse was fake-symping Tellan and Rashan, and Sorrit is Atrahal's partner. But in that case, then, why would Sorrit have been such a lunatic attacking Kalse (who would be his symp in this case, which sorrit could figure out pretty easily) unless he was preemptively super-distancing? Idk, that seems a bit drastic to me.
I was building a case against Liosan, but our known symp (Kalse) put him to L-1 at the end of day 1 in an x-post with Kaschan, also on Lio. So probably not Lio. I don’t think this enough to clear anyone – if you give him credit for playing this deep, a tricky vote is not unthinkable
If not Atrahal, if not Lio, then whom? I think Sorrit is more likely inno than scum because he appears pretty forthright and thorough about outlining his thoughts. I think this is a pretty difficult thing to do as scum since it either takes a prodigious memory / lots of notes to keep track of all these manufactured lines of thought; it's more likely that scum are being rather taciturn and generally unhelpful. Furthermore, Sorrit's observation about Kalse just letting Tellan die (that I hadn't thought of and consider pretty insightful) adds to my opinion he is town. That leaves Kaschan, Rashan, and Tellan.
I've been trying to come up with a conclusion on who our scum are through reasoning and the facts, but I'm just confusing the fuck out of myself in the process. So I'm going to go with my gut. Pick any of these 3 and I'm okay with it. I hate how worthless Kaschan has been to town, so if he's inno then it at least sets an example to town not to be so utterly unhelpful in the future (a small consolation prize I suppose). This has some contradiction with the Kalse fake reveal, and the more I think about the fake-symp theory the less I like it--but in any case this would make the pairing Kaschan / Tellan since Tellan was the person to suggest switching to SL from Kaschan (Tennes was second and we know he is inno). It's also interesting that Tellan immediately pointed out that it was a play by Kalse to clear SL. My head hurts a bit, and I seem to remember agreeing with this when I first read it, but could that be a slip? Correct me if I'm wrong here. In any case, if Kaschan is scum, then Tellan is his partner.
Similar for Rashan; his posts tell me very very little about his alignment. I think that if Rashan is scum, then Tellan has to be his partner--if the partnership was Rashan/Kaschan, then Kalse would have just let Tellan get lynched. So Rashan / Tellan -- Rashan just expressed a plan to put Atrahal at L-1. In line with Tellan.....
As for Tellan, well, ther's plenty on Tellan. He could be paired with either, the way I see it.
My guess is Tellan / Rashan are the scum. Tellan / Kaschan is possible but less likely.
In either case...
Vote Tellan
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defending Atrahal…I can’t get over that this is still WIFOM based, all these “maybes & ifs” – Kalse’s words were all lies, he cleared Tellan at last – what to believe? If he was fake symping, he was trying to get 3 people lynched with his own death. If he expected us to figure that out, the he was hiding Tellan (if killer) in plain sight. Your partnering layout is beyond me right now. We have to follow through with that subject once we get a CF. Too many layers.
(I’m working on this while on thread, hurting brain is sleepy)
Worst part of this case to me (it’s still a good job, man) is on top of the stack of WIFOM, you give up and go back to gut. Which is where I am more comfortable.
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