Okey doke, I took some time to review the thread since the last Bat jump. And going off of that, standing back from it and looking at it again, rather than the 'minute-by-minute' reactions which made me suspect Emur, Atrahal came out on top by a long shot.
Atrahal has never been among the highest content-producing contributors, but his ONLY post of content since the Bat jump is also the most suspicious. But let's review:
Atrahal, on 11 June 2012 - 05:55 PM, said:
We had quite a delay while the successor acknowledged their notification. Any players with the same activity hours? Might be a pattern worth following up there...
Immediately after thread unlock, he comes up with the suggestion which, if anyone else had suggested it and looked into it closely, would likely find Atrahal - known for lengthy absences - among those names. But because Atrahal suggested it, he's immediately trying to separate himself from this line of thought. Now here's that one post I was talking about.
Atrahal, on 12 June 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:
Given that everyone benefits from BM being smoked at least one more time before we focus on CLs, but really only BM benefits at this stage from CLs going down, I think it's a reasonable course of action. Just because a recruit follows their CL's preferred choice of action (as faras we can tell, at any rate), doesn't mean that course of action isn't also useful to town. There will still be coincidences of desire (oo-er) until the it's time to start positioning for the denoument.
While the case against Emurlahn is shaky at best, I still think D'riss is a viable target, especially as she shrugged off my attempted NK the other night. So I'm going to:
Vote D'riss
Please notice that here he is voting D'riss because he suspects him of being Batman, not CL. Keep this in mind for a bit later. There was also no peep from Batman this night, which could be put down to Atrahal's failed NK on D'riss, after which he tries to set up D'riss as BM here.
Now notice who is the only person to show Atrahal's case any favour, the CL Rashan. Is this surprising?
Atrahal, on 12 June 2012 - 02:35 PM, said:
Rashan, on 12 June 2012 - 01:02 PM, said:
Atrahal, on 12 June 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:
Given that everyone benefits from BM being smoked at least one more time before we focus on CLs, but really only BM benefits at this stage from CLs going down, I think it's a reasonable course of action. Just because a recruit follows their CL's preferred choice of action (as faras we can tell, at any rate), doesn't mean that course of action isn't also useful to town. There will still be coincidences of desire (oo-er) until the it's time to start positioning for the denoument.
While the case against Emurlahn is shaky at best, I still think D'riss is a viable target, especially as she shrugged off my attempted NK the other night. So I'm going to:
Vote D'riss
I don't hate your case against D'riss. He hasn't really posted anything of substance since the weekend at least, but he's posted quite a bit. I think he may just be trying to keep his post-count up without making any big waves. I'll be keeping an eye on D'riss, but as per my previous message, for now my vote stays on Emurlahn.
This, and another post (Galain, Korbas) about this case not really being relevant to BM's identity
now is a point I hadn't considered. I still think it's wiser to smoke BM than a CL at the moment, as BM will find it easier to hide and increasingly easier to pick off CLs as our numbers dwindle, whatever faction we happen to be in. The not-quite-randomness of BM's successor choice means we have a much greater chance of hitting a CL than BM, so we should focus our attentions on BM until he has one life left.
Given that, and my standing opinion that D'riss is a CL:
Remove vote
But now who to vote for? As Korbas's vehemence has convinced me that any lynch is better than none (for which, *bow*), I might as well jump on the vote train I have a gut feeling for. As far as I'm concerned, all the cases thus far are severe cases of WIFOM. I would always trust actions over words to point to someone's inclination/allegiance, and that's no different in Mafia. Thus far, until Penguin actually confirms Emurlahn's claim to be a recruit, seems he is the best target. Thus:
Vote Emurlahn
Now also notice the swift backtracking on the D'riss vote, after the negative attention it caused. Notice that NOW he says that 'my standing opinion is that D'riss is a CL'. BUT when he voted for D'riss, he made out he thought D'riss was Batman! So why CL now? And why say it on thread? He doesn't care it's out there for everyone to see! It's in case he gets whacked - so that the next Batman might follow his hunch by looking back over his posts. Finally, he hops on the easy-seeming Emurlahn train without adding anything to it.
Now look at these posts:
Atrahal, on 12 June 2012 - 07:05 PM, said:
And we now only need one more vote for a lynch, as far as I'm reading it.

Excited about the lynch, doesn't think to remove his vote and take Emur off L-1 when there's so much time to go. I was on at this time, and I did not vote on Emur when I EASILY could have.
Atrahal, on 12 June 2012 - 09:00 PM, said:
Accusations, counter-accusations -- seems like the fun is really only just beginning

Yeah, I bet for you - because none of it is focussed on the right place: on you.
Atrahal, on 13 June 2012 - 08:56 AM, said:
Morning!
Oh dear. No lynch? Korbas, please don't blow a fuse

Ano now taunting. Does he care that there was no lynch like everyone else expressed? No, because lynching is of no importance to his role. In fact, the more players around, the more there are for the next Batman to hide within, should it come to that.
So
Vote Atrahal