Malazan Empire: Mafia 87.5: The Numbers Game - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 87.5: The Numbers Game When Transcendentals Attack!

#521 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:35 AM

It is now Day 3. There are 13 hours and 41 minutes left in the day. The Timer is FROZEN!

There are 9 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

5 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

1 votes Ampelas (Telas)
3 votes Telas (Korbas, Thyrllan, Rashan)

Players not voting: Ampelas, D'riss, Fener, Galain
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#522 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 12:47 PM

My main question at this point is...Where is Fener? I feel like its been forever since he posted anything.

#523 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 02:12 PM

Hello again.

If Fener or Thyr are scum I'm going to be super pissed.

#524 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 02:43 PM

Maybe fener is scum and he's playing the (super) quiet strategy. Giving us no info whatsoever.

#525 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 02:47 PM

Yeah, and if he wins with that strategy I'll give him a "wow, that was incredible play, teach me oh master" speech. /sarcasm

Inno defeat to hollow scum victory isn't something I'll lose sleep over.

#526 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 06:53 PM

Yeah his lack of play make me suspicious of him for sure, but Telas is still on my radar thus far. I have work tonight so I wont be back for a bit, but I'll check back in later.

#527 User is offline   Telas 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 07:20 PM

View PostPath-Shaper, on 27 May 2012 - 11:35 AM, said:

It is now Day 3. There are 13 hours and 41 minutes left in the day. The Timer is FROZEN!

There are 9 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

5 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

1 votes Ampelas (Telas)
3 votes Telas (Korbas, Thyrllan, Rashan)

Players not voting: Ampelas, D'riss, Fener, Galain


Anomandaris is missing from the votes. I think he should be in not voting, but his vote might be on me.

#528 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 09:43 PM

Thanks Telas. Corrected below:

It is now Day 3. There are 13 hours and 41 minutes left in the day. The Timer is FROZEN!

There are 9 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

5 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

1 votes Ampelas (Telas)
3 votes Telas (Korbas, Thyrllan, Rashan)

Players not voting: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#529 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 12:05 AM

My vote is staying on Telas, I'll find the exact post here now to quote it and all for those who like quotes and stuff.

#530 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 12:12 AM

View PostAnomandaris, on 26 May 2012 - 07:19 PM, said:

View PostD, on 26 May 2012 - 12:18 AM, said:

View PostTelas, on 25 May 2012 - 07:12 PM, said:

For the sake of stirring things up a bit, I will move my vote to Ampelas. If we lynch him and he CFs inno, though, I'm going to be crusading hard for a Rashan lynch tomorrow, as I still think he's a shifty bugger!

remove vote
vote Ampelas



This, for me, is hands down the scummiest post in the game so far.

First of all, the vote is totally out of character. After some first day annoyance over Shelly, Telas has been Rashan this and Rashan that. There has been no hint that Telas is a player who votes simply to "stir things up". The appearance is as if he hasn't really given a thought to Amp. Yet he votes him anyways over something as flimsy as "stirring things up". Not only failing to really justify the vote, the main thrust of the post is still at Rashan. From an inno point of view, this post doesn't make any sense to me.

So does this post make sense in the context of Telas as scum? Well, the case leveled at Telas contains a connection between Telas and Amp. If Telas is scum, and Amp is NOT, this post and vote change smacks of an opportunistic move by Telas. If Telas is scum, and Amp is not his partner, Telas of course knows Amp is inno. He's been waiting for an excuse to vote Ampelas, because if Amp is lynched and turns up inno, that erases the connection to himself and effectively takes a source suspicion away from Telas. It also gives the illusion that Telas is innocent and can vote for anyone because "of course" he doesn't have a partner.

The post, other than the vote, is primarily a dig at Rashan. "Crusading hard" for Rashan the next day reads to me like a more subtle "setting up the next day's lynch" than what Galain did on day 1. See, once the Amp/Telas connection is dead, that should make it easier to push a Rashan lynch. Day 4.... getting down to the wire.

Remove vote

Vote Telas




Ok, so this is a good place to start to point out flaws in logic. So Telas is gunning for Rashan. And Rashan continues to bury himself with his hard on for me. Logically, Telas would continue to nip at Rashan's flank and follow through with a lynch (after all Rashan was at L-2). And then Telas thinks, ooo, Anomandaris is voting for Amp and I think Anom is innocent and I'm going to switch votes. Right?

So Telas brings Rashan back to L-3 and elevates Amp to L-3. Big whoop...

Try to put yourself in the place of the killer pair now. You have to stay alive for, what, two more days? Town is scrambling about like an old man looking for his dropped contact lens. It's the weekend, so it's not like town is going to time out anytime soon and you are feeling smug that town royally fucked up the day prior. Now if you are thinking scum, you could say, "Let's ride this out, neither I nor my partner are in danger atm, let's monitor the thread and nudge and prod where needed." I mean that seems like a really good strategy right? So you are pushing for a Rashan or Anomander lynch (those being the two most likely atm by vote count). What do you do? Do you keep building cases against the suspects, antagonizing the townies under pressure to get them to bury themselves a little more? Or do you say, I'm just going to stir things up and see what happens?

People, town does not have roles. Other than wanting to eliminate the townies most dangerous in their arguing power and mental acumen, townies are townies. Pick one, get them lynched, NK and move on FTW. So when I see something like Telas switching votes to a non-existent train hoping to start one, I don't see scum being erratic. Scum are rarely erratic (why do you think day 1 lynches always come up town?).

So Telas switches and in come the votes: D'riss, Amp, Korbas, Thyr. All within less than 1 page's worth of text. Now since their aren't 4 scum, there are townies on this train. But I'll bet you my game alt's life that at least one of those (I think two of them) are scum. Why not? Telas was stupid. Telas was impulsive. That's lynchable criteria. Easy win for scum.

That's why I'm so harsh on this train.




Now this will sound a bit hypocritcal or contradictory of myself.



I already quoted the telas post, where he basically said, yes, I tihnk ano is the most innocent player, but I'll vote for him anyway, here, my vote is up for grabs.,



Ano's defense here makes no sense and is, in the sober light of monday morning the only scummy post I tihnk he's made all game. Telas vote was oppourtunistic and scummy as hell, I dont want someone to hammer him until he gets on again today and tries to defend it, but Its the first post I've seen all game that jsut screams scum to me. So now I'm going to suggest something that really makes little sense.

If Telas flips scum, Ano is the other killer. (yes I know telas voted ano, but lets face it, its a vote he had to know wasn't going to garner much support, basically everyone in thread, barring rashan, has stated how inno they view ano, myselkf probably foremost)

#531 User is offline   Anomandaris 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 01:57 AM

Ok rewind and restart. I'll try again, being more candid this time and hopefully I can get the essence of my game play across.

As far as I understand, we have certain stereotypical "scummy" behavior (list making be the latest and greatest):

1. Switching votes suddenly with no discernible reason or decent explanation (e.g. Telas)
2. Posting a lot of text with no content (e.g. Shelly)
3. Implying oneself is not on team Town, whether by mistaken grammar or unintentional distancing
4. Changing posting frequency or style in response to threats (e.g. TS)
5. Nudging others to vote without actually making a commitment oneself
6. Confusing the thread with multiple simultaneous theories without settling down on one (e.g. Rashan)
7. Playing perfectly, middle of the road, "Silencer smooth"

This list is by no means comprehensive, but you get the gist. Scummy behavior is that which deviates from the salt of the earth Town who only seeks the truth and looks for those who do not have Town's best interests in mind.

In a game of mafia, these principles make game play much smoother. I mean, if someone does something that doesn't match what town "should be" they can be appropriately labeled, grilled, pressured and if they crack, lynched. Mistakes give people a handle to work suspects over. Problem is that "scummy" behavior is very common and very few people avoid such behavior all game long regardless of which team they support.

Now, we all admit that Malazan mafia players are good, damn good. Mistakes happen, but very, very rarely are these mistakes ones that can be pinned down with certainty and conviction. Am I off base here? This is a key observation, and if I am incorrect, then I don't see the rest of my discussion helping anyone.

So what I have been saying all game long is scum are not among those making scummy mistakes. I believe the most town among us are scum and the flawed ones (like TS and Shelly) are our allies. My best games as scum have been when I play the perfect townie: concerned, case-making, and trying to be oppositional just enough not to be a follower or popular. Not smooth, not crazy, not middle of the road, different enough to be memorable, but still working to explore all aspects of the suspect pool with a special blind spot to my fellow scum.

As I said at the start, candid. I feel like I describe myself with the above, but good scum don't change their game play whether town or scum. It's like poker; don't have a tell, or hide that tell well.

It gets harder to tell who is scum as the days pass by. We are plastic players, we don't stick with one personality, one tack. If people say something is scummy, we modify to not make our selves match that profile. It makes sense right? What scum is going to play scummy when we define it for them?

Ok, let me break here and connect this discussion to this game.

#532 User is offline   Anomandaris 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 02:34 AM

Day 1, we have the profanity spewing TS who makes himself a very easy lynch: doesn't provide new content, alienates everyone with vehemence and rage, sticks with what he says with no apology.

For the Night 1 kill, we have Shelly, Khells in Wonderland. Crazy, pushing buttons, driving people up the wall, distributing headaches freely. He accuses most of the players over the course of the Day 1, hopping from one person to the next, saying one moment this person needs to be lynched and then saying they were bait for the next accused.

Some people have indicated that Khells was smart, a threat to the real scum, onto something. I actually believe he was full of shit, stirring up the thread to give us material to work with (which was the brilliant play).

D'riss never gets to respond before Shelly move on, Galain sputters, Thyrllan mocks, TS goes berserk and brings on the train, Telas bites back with a vote on Shelly, Karosis declares Shelly is full of shit, and Ampelas shrugged it off.

In the end, Shelly breaks out of this role and says:

Quote

Fingers crossed on Tulas, but I'm thinking that this is going to be an inno lynch. You'll normally find killers early on (day 1, 2) hiding in the middle order - so Karosis, Rashan, D'riss, Fener, Thyrllan - these are the people I'd look at right now.


Then he dies, targeted by the killer pair.

Why? Shelly was the second most likely lynch candidate, and was probably going to be a hot topic (actually was a hot topic...) on day 2. There is no reason to make a provisional on Shelly if one thinks shelly will be lynched. And I don't believe the NK was a murder of passion. And if Shelly was onto them, killing him would just direct attention onto them (Shelly did give a final 4).

So why? My original theory was carelessness, a provisional they forgot to change. I could even believe they were trying to fuck with our minds. But whatever the case, I don't think scum were among those who voted for Shelly or pushed strongly for his lynch. Not with the knee jerk reaction being to look at those who had a motive of passion to kill him.

That's why I most strongly suspected those who were in the game such as pushing for a TS lynch, but also discounting Shelly and his craziness (people like Amp and Korbas). You don't interact with your kills. Too much risk.

Day 2 rolls around and things start to get more muddy. My two suspects diverge. Amp starts to look more and more like bona-fide town, making cases, getting into it with Rashan and then switching gears to look at other suspects. Korbas plays, but still remains marginal, throwing down votes definitively (sometimes twice in a row) and then dropping an OMGUS on me before departing. And what's funny is both are integrally involved in our big cases (such as Rashan and Telas). They are town through and through, born and bred, blood of the township running through their veins.

And that is why they are scum.

Scum are smart, scum avoid the cliches because everyone looks for and acts on cliches (despite the low sensitivity of these litmus tests as is demonstrated time and time again on Day 1 lynches).

It's not easy to build a train on a contributing, earnest "townie." Again I cite myself as an example. People vote for me, but no train, and I have been called inno several times. Amp has also been considered inno.

The paradigm needs to shift my friends. Probably won't happen this game, and that is sad because scum will win then. But at least for future games, keep this in mind. The hardest person to suspect is the good guy, and most often they are where scum hide.

#533 User is offline   Anomandaris 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 02:37 AM

I don't know how much more blunt, candid and clear I can be.

I have trouble with my case on Amp because he is now throwing himself out there so much that I am beginning to second guess my early day 1 and 2 observations. I still maintain that players are plastic, that just because Amp has changed his playstyle doesn't mean he's inno.

But I feel a lot more comfortable with Korbas, who continues to both match my profile and send up red flags while somehow avoiding detection by the rest of you.

Vote Korbas

#534 User is offline   Telas 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 03:33 AM

View PostThyrllan, on 28 May 2012 - 12:12 AM, said:

If Telas flips scum, Ano is the other killer. (yes I know telas voted ano, but lets face it, its a vote he had to know wasn't going to garner much support, basically everyone in thread, barring rashan, has stated how inno they view ano, myselkf probably foremost)


I never voted Ano, actually. I voted Ampelas, and before that it was Shelly, Tulas or Rashan I was voting for. I am certain I have said at least once, and probably several times, that I think Ano is likely an inno. I can't defend my vote beyond what I already did. There were no cases picking up traction, nothing was being said that had any substance, no one was taking any risky moves, so I changed my vote to see what would happen. In retrospect, I shouldn't have changed it to someone who I had been vocally defending the previous day, but hey, everyone makes mistakes. Sorry if you are looking for more of a defense, but it's the god's honest truth, just wanted to shake some trees.

That being said, I think Ano is probably onto something with his questioning Korbas and Ampelas' scumminess, so if the lynch against me goes through and you find out I'm a townie, and if everyone is still convinced Rashan is a townie, I would follow Ano's instinct. Something tells me he is right, which, aside from trying to stir things up (which, I might add, was quite successful) is why I moved my vote to Ampelas, it's where Ano had his vote, and he seemed to be making sense to me. I feel like the lynch on me is probably going to end up happening. I am not sure if I will be back before day finishes, though, so just in case Ano can pick up more traction with his case, I'll throw my vote onto his train, again.

remove vote
vote Korbas


#535 User is offline   Ampelas 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 04:54 AM

This is a really well thought out and clear assessment, Ano. But I think you are missing a few important points.

I don't think there is a 'scummy' way to play. I've seen scum low post, high post, post like ferrets on crack. I've seen scum hiding, I've seen scum directing lynches. I've seen scum getting overly defensive and scum who refuse to defend themselves. I've seen scum successfully use the "I always seem scummy/I always get lynched early" defence. I've also seen townies do exactly the same thing. Sometimes town gets scum lynched by complete luck. As scum I once got lynched over a completely fake symping case. It all comes down to a playing style, and because we all have different playing styles we are all going to play scum differently.

The key is in something you mentioned. Having a blind spot for your team member. However, we really need to hit the first scum before using that as a way to find the second scum. I find as well that if we have an inexperienced scum player the old clichés CAN lead us to lynching the correct person.

The point of looking for 'things scum do' is to find a point of difference, something that the rest of town can get behind. Because if you start going "this person is scum because they look like town", the rest of town is sitting there going "what if I'm next because I also look like town?", and then we get nowhere. We also get geniuses like Galain refusing to vote for someone who looks like town, even if it means going without a lynch.

By your own logic, then, I find you the scummiest. You, too, ignored most of what Shelly was spewing. You have calmly replied to everything that has been thrown your way. This latest essay is the most townie of town actions, appealing for town to change it's ways or face losing to scum. Building well-thought out cases, even deliberately stating "when I was scum I played like this".

I have also looked back at Korbas' play. It is quite possibly the most inconsistent play ever. He agrees with Ano, that we should be ignoring Shelly and focussing on TS, but also states that he will switch to Shelly if needed, and continues to respond to Shelly's ludicrous claims. He justifies his vote for TS when called on why he ignored Shelly, without really addressing his actions towards Shelly. He makes a list of people he wants to 'investigate more fully', but never returns to them. He makes vague statements about finding Fener scummy, but never builds a case or makes a commitment. He jumps on a train stating basically that his vote is up for grabs, switching backwards and forwards based on the most recent cases. Is this your idea of townie play?

#536 User is offline   Ampelas 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 05:11 AM

I want to be clear here, I'm not attacking Ano's ideas on the need to change, I'm simply questioning his application. I think the ideas themselves are good (although not necessarily practical).

#537 User is offline   D'riss 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 05:23 AM

That's some brilliant stuff. Mafia related musing, but of course game related immediacy as well.


You forgot one scum move on your list though Ano. "Scum make lists." :)


Through all this, I can't help but get an idea that there is an Ano/Telas connection, or an Ampelas/Korbas connection, which makes me inclinded to lynch one person from one of the pairs and if that doesn't work, lynch one from the other pair.


Where'd Rashan disappear to, anyways? Once things moved away from him he shut up...

#538 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 08:16 AM

my bad relax, you voted amp,not ano.
Its your suggestion that you'd easily vote for ano that made me vote for you.
Getting laptop to read and post properly

#539 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 09:13 AM

OK, I'm going to unfreeze the timer a couple of hours earlier than I said I would. This is so I can easily resolve before I go to bed. And lo, Path-Shaper did say that time could move again, and verily did it move! And so forth.

It is now Day 3. There are 13 hours and 41 minutes left in the day. Timer has been UNFROZEN!

There are 9 players left: Ampelas, Anomandaris, D'riss, Fener, Galain, Korbas, Rashan, Telas, Thyrllan

5 votes required for a lynch, 5 to go to night.

3 votes Telas (Korbas, Thyrllan, Rashan)
2 votes Korbas (Anomandaris, Telas)

Players not voting: Ampelas, D'riss, Fener, Galain
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
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#540 User is offline   Korbas 

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Posted 28 May 2012 - 09:56 AM

I've got to take a friend home to NYC today. I'll be staying the night and leaving early tuesday morning. It's like an 8 hour drive for me, but I will post as soon as I get back. If I'm totally inactive then this is why.

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