[QuickTidal]

Again man, take a step back. These people are always crazy, and Trump has no interest in doing fuck all expect soak up all the money he can from his followers before 2024 and the gravy train stops...and again he will not run in 2024. He's lazy, and just wants to live out the rest of hid days fat, and wealthy. He has zero interest in a job that taxed him to his physical and mental limit last time....

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 11 May 2022 - 02:56 PM, said:

Trump has no interest in doing fuck all expect soak up all the money he can from his followers before 2024 and the gravy train stops...and again he will not run in 2024. He's lazy, and just wants to live out the rest of hid days fat, and wealthy. He has zero interest in a job that taxed him to his physical and mental limit last time....

Most experts disagree with you.

But if you prefer to be optimistic... even if Trump doesn't run, the Trumpist domination of the party will most likely continue, and the nominee will almost certainly espouse Trumpian rhetoric. We may hope that most of the leading contenders (DeSantis etc.) aspire to govern as cautiously competent kleptocrats spouting empty Trumpian rhetoric rather than erratic genuine neo-fascists (though DeSantis's apparently incompetent handling of the decision to end Disney's semi-autonomous status, consequently shifting a debt burden of almost one billion dollars to Florida municipalities that can't pay it and are barred by state law from raising taxes enough to pay it, seems to provide evidence to the contrary; and his willingness to sacrifice large numbers of people to the pandemic also does not bode well). It's certainly possible that Christian Nationalist 'vote fixing' hypermilitaristic neo-fascists like Doug Mastriano are just cynical opportunists too concerned with self-preservation to do anything too risky. But let's not mistake our cognitive bias towards believing 'things like that can't happen here, or in this age, it's simply ridiculous or amusing or like something out of apocalyptic visions or science fiction' (a bias which I viscerally share) for an extremely accurate empirical assessment of what can't plausibly happen, or of how we should try to form value-weighted, empirically grounded probabilistic assessments for resource allocation in anticipation of plausible emergencies.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 11 May 2022 - 04:10 PM

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 11 May 2022 - 04:09 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 11 May 2022 - 02:56 PM, said:

Trump has no interest in doing fuck all expect soak up all the money he can from his followers before 2024 and the gravy train stops...and again he will not run in 2024. He's lazy, and just wants to live out the rest of hid days fat, and wealthy. He has zero interest in a job that taxed him to his physical and mental limit last time....

Most experts disagree with you.

"Most experts"? okay dude. Experts on what? con artists?

[Macros]

To side with Azath temporarily, when Trump announced he was running he was constantly written off, first to win the rep nom, then to take the White House.

People are fucking stupid, in large numbers, so yes let's entertain the horrible possibility of another trump presidency, but I'll draw the line well before you're bombing Canada. They would retaliate, first they would bomb the Baldwin's, then the Arquettes, we know how this goes when you blame Canada

[QuickTidal]

Macros, on 11 May 2022 - 04:28 PM, said:

To side with Azath temporarily, when Trump announced he was running he was constantly written off, first to win the rep nom, then to take the White House.

Oh 100% agree.

I think the difference now is that he didn't WANT to win back then (as Michael Cohen said in his deposition; it was a publicity stunt that went awry), and when he did win, he just went with it.

I just 100% feel like he would not intentionally put himself in that position again knowing what it was like to do that job.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 11 May 2022 - 05:00 PM

[Tapper]

Trump does not have the attention span to (effectively) start or fight a war. For one, it would dunk his popularity ratings when the body bags come home, especially if he starts it. He wants association with the military (and its implied strength and guaranteed victory) because it's important in the US and he likes glittery things like military hardware, parades and medals. "Winning" and the army are closely related in the US mindset, as well. Finally, it gives him a "who's got the biggest, I do!" measuring contest with the rest of the world that he's guaranteed to win.

Trump is a bully looking for something low effort to hit that won't hit back and will get him cheers. There are much easier domestic targets he has a beef with (Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rino's) or his supporters pet peeves (LBGTQ+, abortion clinics, women and women's rights, minorities, Hollywood) to spend 2024 and further on.

As for him running or not: I think it all depends on whether the economy does not trend downwards after the elections. If he can blame Biden for a slump and take credit for the recovery, as he did to the Obama years, he might (imho) run. But if it looks like another three to five years of uneven recovery, he probably won't want to be associated with a US economy that's visibly declining. All those superPAC dollars will instead be spent on enhancing his image (endorsed by Trump) without it meaning much other than giving him a public rimjob.

[Abyss]

Counterpoint: Trump's sheer arrogance, and the echo chamber he surrounds himself, combined with the reluctance of most otherwise valid GOP candidates to challenge him and risk losing support from the Trumpist Right side of the republican spectrum, makes him running entirely possible. Just the storyline of him losing a fake election and coming raging back to leadership would have Trump and his people salivating. And the US media from right to left and back again would eat that sh!t up and barf it back in a news cycle to make him winning the last time look like the white house annual easter egg hunt.

[Malankazooie]

Trump was completely shocked when he won in 2016. The look on his face says it all when it was announced. I believe though, the pinnacle narcissist that Trump is, there is in him to want to win in 2024, just so he can create another branding phrase - Made America Great, Election was stolen, Making America Great again. Please, please, lets hope Letitia James, milquetoast Merrick Garland (or the the 1/6 commission), find something that will gift us with sweet unicorn farts to our eyes - that being a Trump perp walk. Nothing seems to stick though.

[Macros]

Nothing sticks because they let everyone dance around the questions and withhold evidence.
It's the most spineless investigation imaginable.

[Lady Bliss]

Abyss, on 11 May 2022 - 06:14 PM, said:

Counterpoint: Trump's sheer arrogance, and the echo chamber he surrounds himself, combined with the reluctance of most otherwise valid GOP candidates to challenge him and risk losing support from the Trumpist Right side of the republican spectrum, makes him running entirely possible. Just the storyline of him losing a fake election and coming raging back to leadership would have Trump and his people salivating. And the US media from right to left and back again would eat that sh!t up and barf it back in a news cycle to make him winning the last time look like the white house annual easter egg hunt.

I completely agree with this. Republicans that I know seem to all be of the opinion that covid, supply chain issues, gas prices, and the Ukraine war are all Biden’s fault, despite the fact that the whole world seems to have the same problems. Republicans be crazy.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

In today's New York Times:

'The Most Pivotal Elections in 2022 Are Not the Ones You Think

The fate of our democracy doesn't hinge on the battle for the House or the fight for control of the Senate, but on state elections for a once sleepy office: secretaries of state.

No elected officials will be more pivotal to protecting democracy — or subverting it — than secretaries of state. While their responsibilities vary from state to state, most oversee elections, a role in which they wield a tremendous amount of power. [...] they control the machinery of elections.

[...] They can also refuse to certify the results in particular counties or even the entire state.

[...] This has happened before. In 2000, [...]Florida's secretary of state, halted the recount process and certified George W. Bush, for whom she served as a campaign chairwoman, as the winner of Florida's electoral votes. [...]

[...] in 17 of those states, [...] Republican candidates [...] actively den[y] that President Biden won the 2020 election. [...] have formed the America First S.O.S. Coalition, which aims to "reverse electoral fraud" by eliminating mail-in ballots, requiring single-day voting and committing to "aggressive voter roll cleanup," measures that could suppress thousands of Democratic votes. [...]

[...] Georgia, where the Republican incumbent, Brad Raffensperger, is fighting for his political life in the May 24 primary after having refused Mr. Trump's demands to "find" the 11,780 votes he needed to overturn Mr. Biden's victory in that state. [...]

[...] In Pennsylvania, the secretary of state is appointed, so the tossup governor's race will decide who ends up overseeing elections. [...] Recent polling shows [...] Doug Mastriano[...] leading the rest of the Republican candidates.

Mastriano has embraced Mr. Trump's claims of a stolen election; [...] he [...] pushed for a new slate of electors to be sent to Congress. Videos show him and his wife wandering through the barricades after rioters — some of whom he'd paid to send to Washington — breached the Capitol. His election as governor is a strong possibility[...]

[...] has not only called it "almost statistically impossible that Joe Biden won" the state, but also said he would not have certified Nevada's slate of electors had he been secretary of state in 2020; indeed, he pushed for his state to submit an alternative slate. [...] this race could go either way.

[...] As Mr. Trump has said, sometimes the "vote counter is more important than the candidate."'

Five Key Midterms Races to Pay Attention To - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[QuickTidal]

Lady Bliss, on 11 May 2022 - 10:53 PM, said:

Abyss, on 11 May 2022 - 06:14 PM, said:

Counterpoint: Trump's sheer arrogance, and the echo chamber he surrounds himself, combined with the reluctance of most otherwise valid GOP candidates to challenge him and risk losing support from the Trumpist Right side of the republican spectrum, makes him running entirely possible. Just the storyline of him losing a fake election and coming raging back to leadership would have Trump and his people salivating. And the US media from right to left and back again would eat that sh!t up and barf it back in a news cycle to make him winning the last time look like the white house annual easter egg hunt.

I completely agree with this. Republicans that I know seem to all be of the opinion that covid, supply chain issues, gas prices, and the Ukraine war are all Biden’s fault, despite the fact that the whole world seems to have the same problems. Republicans be crazy.

Their disconnect from reality is next level.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'All eyes are on Pennsylvania as parties nominate gubernatorial, Senate candidates

[...] Trump endorsing far-right QAnon supporter Doug Mastriano [...]

To say that Pennsylvania's 2022 GOP U.S. Senate primary has been a total circus would be an understatement. The primary underscores everything that is at once repugnant and wacky about the Trumpified GOP.

[...]

Barnette's far-right platform is as anti-gay as it is anti-Islam; when Barack Obama was president, she was a birther who promoted the conspiracy theory that Obama was a closet Muslim. And Barnette is also campaigning on outlawing abortion even for rape victims.

But as extreme-right as Barnette is, her Republican opponents are attacking the candidate — an African-American woman who lives in the Philadelphia suburbs — as a Black Lives Matter supporter. Barnette is no BLM supporter; she has a lot more in common with Infowars' Alex Jones than she does with anyone in the Black Lives Matter movement.

[...]

A more legitimate criticism of Barnette coming from the Oz camp is that she is an Islamophobe. Oz is a Turkish-American Muslim[...]

[Barnette: You're an evil Muslim! Oz: Oh yeah? Well you're BLACK!]

[...] Mastriano, is a "Stop the Steal" extremist and a QAnon sympathizer who has been campaigning on the Big Lie.

[...]

"Mastriano didn't just try to help Trump overturn the election," [...] "At the time, he also essentially declared his support for the notion that the popular vote can be treated as non-binding when it comes to the certification of presidential electors. Mastriano is now running for a position that exerts real control over the process of certifying electors."'

All eyes are on Pennsylvania as parties nominate gubernatorial, Senate candidates - Alternet.org


'Conspiracy Theorists Are On the Cusp of Sweeping Pennsylvania's GOP Primaries

[...] a prospect that's alarming to Republicans who think they'll lose the general election, and even more concerning for democracy if they win it in the nation's largest swing state.

[...]

They both made their names in politics by pushing wild conspiracy theories, including unfounded claims that Democrats rigged the 2020 election.

They were both in Washington during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

"We have a double-nightmare scenario where two fringe candidates could emerge as the nominees. A lot of the party leadership is in full panic mode,"'

Conspiracy Theorists Are On the Cusp of Sweeping Pennsylvania's GOP Primaries (vice.com)

Mastriano and Barnette both also have military experience---though Barnette was just in the reserves, Mastriano served on multiple fronts as an army intelligence officer for 30 years before getting his PhD and becoming a professor of military history. He's probably not an idiot, and I'd guess he's not delusional either---a cynical opportunist and a genuine neo-fascist who isn't terribly afraid of risking his life. Wonder what his game plan is for invading Canada (kidding about that last part)....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 16 May 2022 - 03:12 PM

[Malankazooie]

The one rough and tumble, f around and find out, blue collar, man of the people candidate had a mild stroke, yeah? But is going to be right back at it though, right?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Malankazooie, on 17 May 2022 - 02:11 AM, said:

The one rough and tumble, f around and find out, blue collar, man of the people candidate had a mild stroke, yeah? But is going to be right back at it though, right?

Yeah, claims 'no cognitive impairment'. Not sure how the macho(-leader-loving) types will take it, or whether Oz would go after him for it (if Oz manages to pull it out... Barnette seems to have the momentum, and pairs better with Mastriano, who she's done co-rallies with---they'll drive each others' turnout).

Funny how shorts and hoodie is his uniform---I've converged on that as well over the last few years. Partly because my legs are absurdly ripped. That + Biden's mirrored aviators.

Fetterman may come across 'blue collar, man of the people' but... 'Fetterman has described his upbringing as middle class and "privileged," saying he "sleepwalked" through his young adulthood [...] attending Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, graduating [...] with a Master of Public Policy.'

John Fetterman

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 May 2022 - 02:27 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'How should the media cover a candidate who is running for a position of control over our election machinery — and has also displayed an open eagerness to steal elections?

[...] Mastriano could soon have the power to help execute a version of the scheme he endorsed — certifying electors in direct defiance of the state's popular-vote outcome, based on bogus claims that this outcome was compromised.

[...]

What must be conveyed clearly and unflinchingly is this: If Mastriano wins the general election, there is almost certainly no chance that a Democratic presidential candidate's victory [...] will be certified by the state's governor.

[...]

If the Democratic contender wins [in Pennsylvania ...] and Gov. Mastriano declares widespread fraud, what's to stop his handpicked secretary of state from certifying the GOP candidate as winner, after which he could sign certification of that candidate's electors?'

Openly pro-coup Trumpist candidate Doug Mastriano could be Pennsylvania's next governor - The Washington Post

If people tried to riot in response... Mastriano would crack down on them. To break into (rap) song for a moment:

Riot? We tried it. And the repression will only get more violent.

Biden would remain president until January---with the help of Democratic governors and mayors, he could help stage his own nation-wide version of January 6th, a counter-coup or general strike... but the prospects of that seem vanishingly unlikely, no matter how much poetry he quotes (whether Yeats's The Second Coming ('surely some revelation is at hand') or his other favorite, Seamus Heaney's 'longed-for tidal wave / Of justice can rise up').

Similarly... Trumplandia Pennsylvania has been getting ready for Civil War for years. Even in the suburbs of Philadelphia. The gangs of Philly have been 'training' for years. Of course the prospect of a Civil War between them seems so far-fetched as to be more like an amusing thought experiment---would the city be invaded, and would gang experience actually translate into a major edge in urban warfare? What would the police, who tend towards Trumpism even in Philadelphia, but who are supposed to be beholden to the mayor or governor, do?... They'd probably tip the scales towards the Trumpists.

But the most likely outcome is that Mastriano won't win. His extremism will drive what would otherwise be expected to be anemic Democratic turnout. While local election officials in many parts of Pennsylvania have been forced out and replaced with 'Stop the Steal' Trump loyalists, that's mainly happened in areas that were heavily pro-Trump to begin with....

So I hope. And so I'll vote---even though I don't want to vote for the Hillary-esque anti-progressive candidate being foisted on us by the Democratic party, as I voted for Hillary, I will vote for him.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 May 2022 - 04:25 PM

[Malankazooie]

Madison Cawthorn fucked around (literally) and found out.

One less Quplican/Trumper to be bombarded with (holy snikees did he get a lot of media coverage). But you have to be careful about celebrating because where one of these fruit loops exits, two more enter it seems.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Damn, this is real---saw the screenshot on Twitter and thought it was a hoax:

'"Dr. Oz should declare victory," Trump wrote on his own social media platform, Truth Social[...] "It makes it much harder for them to cheat with the ballots they 'just happened to find.'"

Like Trump asked Georgia's Secretary of State to 'find' him enough votes to win....

And that's from yesterday at noon... with '"thousands or even tens of thousands of votes" [...] "still yet to be counted (including both some in-person votes and mail-ballots)"'---not sure how many are left now: '"It's impossible to know exactly how many votes are left to be counted, in part because some votes, such as overseas and military ballots, are still coming in."'

Donald Trump is 'undermining democracy' by urging Dr. Oz to prematurely declare victory

Meanwhile Mastriano may want to become the Putin of Pennsyltucky. With his extensive background in military intelligence and deep understanding of military history (PhD, professor) he may have a chance....

Republicans just nominated one of the most radical governor candidates in history

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 May 2022 - 05:01 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'Vengeful Madison Cawthorn Vows "Dark MAGA" Takeover

[...] "It's time for the rise of the new right, it's time for Dark MAGA to truly take command."

Before vowing that this Dark MAGA would "defeat the cowardly and weak members of our own party," Cawthorn said the "time for gentile politics as usual has come to an end," presumably not in reference to the politics of non-Jews.'

Vengeful Madison Cawthorn Vows 'Dark MAGA' Takeover


'Surveillance Footage Debunks MAGA Clerk's Voter Fraud Claims

[...] claimed it was "physically impossible" for Mesa County clerks to upload certain batches of 2020 election ballots so quickly. The cameras showed otherwise.

[MAGA] clerk of Mesa County, Colorado is currently facing 10 charges related to allegations that she and a colleague stole a local man's identity and used it to break into voting equipment in the clerk's office. [... she] leaked voting data to conspiracy theorists, catapulting her to stardom in the Stop The Steal movement.'

Surveillance Footage Debunks MAGA Clerk Tina Peters' Mesa County Voter Fraud Claims


'CPAC Head Suggests Abortion Ban Will Solve "Great Replacement"

[...] the influential Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) [...] The "great replacement theory," which has been embraced by right-wingers, alleges that white Christian populations are being replaced by immigrants of different races and religion. The 18-year-old Buffalo shooter, who killed 10 Black people on Saturday, wrote in his diary about being inspired by the racist theory'

CPAC Head Suggests Abortion Ban Will Solve 'Great Replacement'

'CPAC Just Decided to Not Let Any US Journalists Inside

[...] Hungary's authoritarian leader, Viktor Orbán [...] [... d]uring his keynote speech [...] outlined a 12-point plan for U.S. conservatives to follow'

They Really Don't Want US Journalists at CPAC in Hungary

Orbán effectively transformed Hungary from a democracy to an authoritarian state under his control....

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

'For the US right, Orbán's Hungary – unconstrained by an independent media, democratic institutions or racial diversity – isn't a cautionary tale, but an aspiration

[...] Cpac [...] Attendees will [...] be addressed by American conservative luminaries including the former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows and media figures like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens. That Hungary has become an authoritarian state whose leader, Viktor Orbán, has deconstructed Hungarian democracy and become a close ally of [...] Putin doesn't seem to faze anyone involved. In fact, it's the whole point.

[...] Where Orbán has gone, American conservatives want to follow. And increasingly, they are doing so.

[...]

Far from being limited to the trolls at Cpac or obscure writers, such an approach to governing is already being implemented by conservatives up and down the country. [...]

It's no exaggeration to say that Orbánism, with its rejection of democracy and its willingness to use coercion to enforce a narrow cultural and religious agenda, defines the danger posed by modern American conservatism. The danger is greatest when the two elements come together. Unable to win the approval of the people on whom they wish to force their values, conservatives will be tempted to proceed further and further down an undemocratic path. That path has already taken them all the way to Budapest. The fear now is that they will ultimately bring Budapest back to America.'

Conservatives want to make the US more like Hungary. A terrifying thought | Andrew Gawthorpe | The Guardian

'Doug Mastriano race to decide if Pennsylvanians want their votes counted or cheaper bacon

[...] Mastriano has created a goon squad that works to keep reporters out of rallies and events, to rile up his base while holding mainstream voters out of the information loop.'

'In Gettysburg, the heart of Mastriano's state senate district, we are seeing the roots of a second American civil war that would reverse the blood-soaked gains from that consecrated battleground.'

Doug Mastriano race to decide if Pennsylvanians want their votes counted or cheaper bacon | Will Bunch (inquirer.com)