Osseric, on 10 February 2012 - 06:26 PM, said:
I guess, i'm just expressing my opinion that Ruse isn't anything other than what he says he is, thus, no vote from me. If he was the cult leader, there is no way he would come out, say Tennes is town, I am town, and Barghast is town. There is too much risk for a leader to do that. He can recruit both Shields and Town as has been shown. If he messed up just one time, he would be toast. He has given us 3 Town names. Has anyone disputed this? We even got a CF on one that said he was telling the truth. You think a leader sticks his neck out like that? Just gambles that he might be right? I don't see it.
Who would call him out? Shields? No. They're far too happy to be PIed.
Townies? Na-ah, cause he says they are townies.
Fellow Cult? Nope, they are on his side.
So, that leaves the odd CF to expose him. Barghast never got any heat but died. I have been attacking Ruse all game long, seems fairly certain I am not recruited and won't be because there is no way I can gracefully back down from trying to get him lynched, which is what you need in a recruit. Therefore, I will always CF town and will thus always support his theory. It would be a 180. So he calls me town and unless I am a shield and lynched/ NKed and it comes out that way that he lied, all's fine and dandy. Ruse has a brain, and when he isn't panicked and flustered and lying through his teeth, he knows how to use it.
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Thats why it's baffling to me that Tennes is on the Train, (Unless Tennes is shield). He would know, like I do, that Ruse is telling the truth. How do you vote that person off?
So because he got something right on me, he is what he says he is? You are nowhere near suspicious enough. Let's examine the chance of him being right even if he doesn't know for sure (aka, is a liar):
1. he knows himself and his own recruits,
2. he knows Fener is scum,
3. and he otherwise has a chance of, what, 75% to not name a shield?
That's decent odds. Furthermore, because of recruitment being recruitment and it changing the alignment of a player, the PIed person has to die the night after Ruse named him inno, or in that lynch - otherwise he can say "probably recruited after I did my magical thing that cannot be named that proved them town".
Secondly, notice how despite being Cult the blacksmith was still named town and Mott was still named a Shield. Ruse can always weasel out by saying: "
my ability doesn't spot cultists! See, Mott was still a shield!! I can only find (ehm, not find, he's not a finder) super-magically-awesome-not-find-find scum!!"
So plenty of weaseling room for him even if he has it wrong.
As a result, what Ruse says proves literally nothing. Are you going to come out and expose him if you were scum? Probably not.
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At this point, for all I know the cult might be dead. we are ASSUMING that the cult started with 2 people. Personally, I think that would be a huge disadvantage, balance wise, to town. But If there was still a cult leader around, i'd probably say, Korbas, Rashan or Sorrit. ( who could also be shields), which is why I think either of them are a better choice for a lynch that Ruse. Who could only be cult. There is no way Ruse is Shield.
I know he is speaking the truth about my alignment, but let's examine the VCs: he doesn't even have to recuit everyone and we have to lynch the cult leader to win.
So, for example, he could call me town, then leave me alive and unrecruited, and win, despite me railing against him - as soon as he has majority, he won't give a fuck, I can't get him lynched and town loses. In fact, he has a lot to win by leaving townies around as they block Fener's VC.