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Osseric, on 09 January 2012 - 11:58 PM, said:
Atrahal, on 09 January 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:
Osseric, on 09 January 2012 - 10:54 PM, said:
Atrahal, on 09 January 2012 - 10:48 PM, said:
No, it's a reasonable idea - UB making BB more legitimate by afflicting him with silence, giving him shelter from Day 1 antics
But how can this not be WIFOM, as GL has wittily named it?
Because a smart UB would know that we expect that and wait a couple days to get some townies first, ad nauseum
But how can this not be WIFOM, as GL has wittily named it?
Because a smart UB would know that we expect that and wait a couple days to get some townies first, ad nauseum
Damn. I was hoping no one would bring up WIFOM. That word can easily invalidate an argument.
@engorged words. But he would know that we know that he knows that we know that we can expect him to silence townies first, so he silences himself or his killer first.
Obvious WIFOM, yes. Merely presenting a theory other than HE SAID KNIFE! HE MUST BE KILLER!
BUt isn't WIFOM one of the gauges that we must use to determine if an idea/theory/case/argument can be legitimately pursued? The confusion that follows will make smoke. This is why I asked if this was a serious line of question (and it must be, two pages of it) or spam.
Yes, but just because an argument involves WIFOM, doesn't mean it should be ignored. The only way to find out if a WIFOM case has any validity is to test it. In the game of Mafia, this is generally a bad idea. Better cases can be made, and the day could be considered wasted if the person lynched comes up inno. But in this case it is day 1. Day 1 cases are often random, and the only information we gain is the lynch train when that person's CF is revealed. There's a theory, if it will ever be tested, now is the time. Worst-case scenario is that he is inno. We still have the lynch train to examine, and the interactions of day 1. Best case, he turns out to be the killer and we cheer. Although the symp comes up inno in a CF, we'd know that he is gone when no one is silenced.
I'm actually surprised no one has agreed with me at all.
Sheltatha Lore, on 09 January 2012 - 11:21 PM, said:
Well, at the least we know who is silenced pretty early in the day. That being said, I'll leave you until later in the day, say... 12 hours from now, maybe even a bit later. Not my idea to have meetings at clients, but that's how they ordain it, and as long as they pay me, I'm their obedient slave servant non-mafia playing little dragon.
Oh, and those looking for a massive piece on the current conjecture of whether or not UB would silence himself or BB, I'll oblige you: it's wifom.
Perhaps JA even asked UB before sorting out who got which alt.
That being said, my gut says in case UB was offered a choice, he wouldn't target BB or himself. By silencing himself, UB loses the chance to effectively symp BB. On a day as fickle as day 1, that is never a good plan. By silencing BB, he may encourage BB to lay so low day 1 that we will see him as a non-contributor and lynch him, or become suspicious of an increase in content when he can post again. Furthermore, it is player's nature to question what is odd and a person posting in pictures is always odd, also because it is very likely that we will ask the silenced player to explain himself and his thoughts more thoroughly the next day when he is not silenced, so effectively. there are 2 days of spotlight.
So, dear silenced player, please take notes.You will be subjected to a punishing crossfire of questions and soul searching * snaps surgical glove *.
So there it is, my 2 cents. Have a good night and sweet dreams.
Oh, and those looking for a massive piece on the current conjecture of whether or not UB would silence himself or BB, I'll oblige you: it's wifom.
Perhaps JA even asked UB before sorting out who got which alt.
That being said, my gut says in case UB was offered a choice, he wouldn't target BB or himself. By silencing himself, UB loses the chance to effectively symp BB. On a day as fickle as day 1, that is never a good plan. By silencing BB, he may encourage BB to lay so low day 1 that we will see him as a non-contributor and lynch him, or become suspicious of an increase in content when he can post again. Furthermore, it is player's nature to question what is odd and a person posting in pictures is always odd, also because it is very likely that we will ask the silenced player to explain himself and his thoughts more thoroughly the next day when he is not silenced, so effectively. there are 2 days of spotlight.
So, dear silenced player, please take notes.You will be subjected to a punishing crossfire of questions and soul searching * snaps surgical glove *.
So there it is, my 2 cents. Have a good night and sweet dreams.
No one here is that stupid. Obviously if someone is silenced, they're going to have limited content to their posts... BECAUSE THEY'RE SILENCED. And if anyone became more suspicious because of an increase in content THE DAY AFTER BEING SILENCED, they should talk to a doctor.
Sorry for the caps. I'd usually bold it, but that's frowned upon here where bolding is used for votes.
Karatallid, on 09 January 2012 - 11:27 PM, said:
Well, we can break it down into a decision tree:
First, how likely is the silenced one to be evil?
If Okaros was UB or BB, he would be in a precarious position considering all the attention he will garner, especially if he posts the wrong pictures and calls even more attention to himself. In general, I think probabilistically speaking, scum are more liable to play it moderately safe on day 1 and hide in the crowd rather than making a ballsy move. That doesn't discount the more likely possibility that UB or BB will be silenced later in the game...
but initially, since the silence probably was submitted to JA before the beginning of the game, I think a silenced person is more likely to be one of us selected at random.
Second, both scum know each other despite not being able to communicate. I think this can play out in several ways, but I think I will hold speculation till later in the day so as not to let the scum try to act in a way opposite to the speculations.
Third and finally, I think there are subtle, maybe unintentional, efforts of people to style themselves in a certain way through their texts. For instance, Osseric with several uses of the phrase "ignorant masses" which I would associate with someone implying they are a townie or even RI role.
First, how likely is the silenced one to be evil?
If Okaros was UB or BB, he would be in a precarious position considering all the attention he will garner, especially if he posts the wrong pictures and calls even more attention to himself. In general, I think probabilistically speaking, scum are more liable to play it moderately safe on day 1 and hide in the crowd rather than making a ballsy move. That doesn't discount the more likely possibility that UB or BB will be silenced later in the game...
but initially, since the silence probably was submitted to JA before the beginning of the game, I think a silenced person is more likely to be one of us selected at random.
Second, both scum know each other despite not being able to communicate. I think this can play out in several ways, but I think I will hold speculation till later in the day so as not to let the scum try to act in a way opposite to the speculations.
Third and finally, I think there are subtle, maybe unintentional, efforts of people to style themselves in a certain way through their texts. For instance, Osseric with several uses of the phrase "ignorant masses" which I would associate with someone implying they are a townie or even RI role.
This post is actually alright. I disagree with it, but it doesn't bother me as much as the earlier posts. You think it's more likely that scum will play it moderately safe on day 1 and hide in the crowd, and I disagree. And I think it's something easily tested. But I've been there already (see first response), so I'll move on.
@ Third point.
Just because I actually am town, doesn't mean I shouldn't play like town.
underlined makes no sense. explain pls?
vote Osseric
