[Dolorous Menhir]

Thought it would be good to run through some plot points, interested to see what people think.

1. How does Aegon fit into the plans of Varys, Illyrio, etc? Assuming he really is Rhaegar's son, which we've no reason to doubt given the matter-of-fact explanation of the baby switch, does this mean that they've been running both Daenerys and Aegon all along?

If the the eventual goal was to marry the two, then they must've already had a plan to dispose of Khal Drogo (so Daenerys could re-marry) and Viserys (as he would be unlikely to yield to Aegon's stronger claim)?

Either way, it seems a little far fetched that they would plot such a course for Daenerys, as had it gone to plan, Aegon's path to power would have been made harder rather than easier.

2. Does Moqorro share Melisandre's powers of endurance? This would explain how he was able to survive so long at sea.

3. Clear instances of foreshadowing?

i) Prologue with Varamyr Sixskins established how wargs can live on in beasts after their deaths. Will this apply to John?

ii) Felt there was some significance to Roose Bolton's use of an armoured decoy while travelling. Have we seen any fully armoured characters "die"? Thinking of Rhaegar here, though it would really cheapen things to have had a double die in his place at the Trident, so that he could return.

iii) Davos's death at White Harbour, already reported in AFFC, was a deceit. Could this apply to anyone else? Stannis? The Knight of the Flowers (he's been reported seriously injured for a long time now without real confirmation)?

4. Why does Daenerys follow such a naive and frustrating path in Mereen? Getting bogged down in local politics, locking up and driving away the dragons rather than keeping them under control, possibly worst of all getting married to Hizdhar. She may only be a young girl, who knows little of queenship, but she seems to have totally taken her eye off the ball (and Westeros).

5. Ramsay Bolton's final letter. Don't believe that Stannis is dead, but do think that Jeyne and Theon have escaped and that he Mance is a captive. At worst, he has defeated Stannis and taken him prisoner. Then again, would Stannis have value as a hostage? He has no other family than his wife and his allies would melt away if he was taken.

6. Hoping for a reminder on Area Hotah/Arys Oakheart/Gerold Dayne (Darkstar). Remember that Myrcella was injured and Hotah killed Arys, but can't remember the why or what Dayne's involvement was.

7. It was strange to see Maester Aemon back from the dead, after AFFC. Also sad to see Maester Pycelle's demise, had a bit of a soft spot for him.

8. Going back to #1, is Varys simply a Targaryen loyalist? Unable to see how his actions could be interpreted otherwise. There must be easier ways for him to personally profit or benefit the realm. Are his foreign origins a guide? If he wanted to weaken Westeros for a Free Cities invasion, he is doing it the hard way, and surely Aerys's final years would have been the best time for such a thing.

9. Why does Tyrion admit so freely to killing Joffrey? He is innocent of that, at least.

10. The story Davos gets from that island lord. A reliable account of Ned Stark's indiscretion? If so, proves that Jon Snow's origins are humble.

11. Rhaegar and Lyanna having a baby at all - is it viable in storyline terms for Lyanna to have brought a pregnancy to term in the interval between the tourney where Rhaegar chose her over his wife, and her death at the end of Robert's Rebellion? Have always thought that the vague descriptions of her demise suggested childbirth was the cause (in bed, blood, no evidence of others present except the Kingsguard who died outside).

12. Can we link Brynden the greenseer to any other documented character? Any instances before this book of weirwoods talking to a character (as Bran seemed to do to Theon several times)?

13. Where does Davos need to go to get Rickon?

Appreciate your thoughts on this.

[Mentalist]

Rickon was supposed to be with the crannogmen, no?
although mentions of cannibals make me think really strongly of Skagos. though how he'd end up here is anyone's guess.

as for no 6, Areo was sent to bring back myrcella. Oakheart (who was the dornish princess' lover) was killed by him. she yielded at that point, but the darkstar would not, so he attacked Myrcella, cutting off her ear in the process.

I can only hope that the story form no. 10 is true. seeing how Jon is described several times to be "haggling like a fismonger's son", I hope it's true. I hate the "R+L" theory.

[kurono]

1. Daenerys hatching dragons wasn't predicted. She entered their plans afterwards. Maybe they thought Aegon, Viserys, Dany were the three heads of the dragon? It's not really clear what they were planning to do with the Dothraki in regards to Aegon, because he's shaping up to be their ace in the whole. Maybe their motivation is to put a puppet king on the throne and control the realm from the shadows.

2. He seems to be a much more powerful priest than Melisandre from what we've seen. He's better at reading fire at the very least.

3. Yeah, the prologue seems to be obvious foreshadowing that Jon will live on in Ghost. There's also a prophecy of sort in Mel's chapter saying Jon will be a man, beast and then man again. It's clearly pointing to Jon will be brought back to life. I hate these revivals though. The man in armour is just Roose being cautious. Rhaegar is dead. It's possible that Loras survived and Cersei was being fed lies but once again I'm tired of GRRM pulling the same trick of saying someone's dead in a message and then he turns out to be perfectly fine afterwards.

4. It's really just the way GRRM wrote her. I don't personally like it and think her chapters sucked. maybe he was just doing it to stall to get future events to happen in the right order.

5. I think almost everything in his letter was bullshit. The only reason Jon thought it might be true was because of the part about Mance. personally I dont think mance was captured. He could of easily tortured one of the spearwives to get that info about him. Stannis is alive though.

6. already answered

8. Nobody knows what their real motives are at this point. We've heard on many accounts that Varys was instrumental in Aerys's fall. He pit Rhaegar against Aerys. I don't buy that he's just a Targ loyalist. Illryio said that Varys used to steal stuff and then Illyrio would get them back for a price. They seem to be doing that on a gigantic scale with Westeros in order to reap the benefits afterwards kinda like American Gods. But it seems like too much work for too little gain imo.

9. that's what he told Jaime and it's like he's accepted it as form of guilt for what he said to him. Killing Tywin and Shae really messed Tyrion up though.

10. Seems more like misdirection. GRRM does that a lot. We have like a half dozen stories on Jon's origins. We have a ton of contenders for Azor Ahai with minor details in the story fitting the requirements of the prophecy. Once again its just misdirection.

12. Brynden aka Bloodraven is a character from the Dunk and Egg novellas. He's a Targ Bastard who was the Hand of the King for a while. He's Aemon's Bastard uncle. He went to the wall at the same time as Aemon. He eventually became the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. There are bad rumors about him in Dunk and Egg. He had spies everywhere and knew almost everything which we know now is because he was a greenseer and could warg into thousands of ravens and spy on every lord in the seven kingdoms. We don't know the circumstances of him leaving the wall and getting to the cave though.

13. He's going to Skagos. They have cannibals and unicorns there.