[Osseric]

Ampelas, on 01 March 2011 - 09:11 PM, said:

Silanah, on 01 March 2011 - 09:04 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 01 March 2011 - 08:08 PM, said:

well how stupid can Silanah be? Finger pointing at me for trying to find who i'm supposed to find? Is Silanah above you in command? Is that why you are thinking its a stupid vote? why not silanah over the 15 others? We don't know do we? I know she isn't above me, i hope she isn't in my faction because rather than actually look for someone who is acting strange and weird, she points the finger at me for n o reason but the fact that i'm stirring things up a bit.

Osseric too, what help has he had other than come on and point the finger my way. Take all my posts away and this would just be utter thread death at the moment, if you think me captain then vote me, if you think me fm then vote me rather than sit back and wait until everyone else has voted and then just joining the majority, make up your own mind and vote for who you think is not on your faction and for your own reasons

And there is the idiocy of your logic you dumbass. You have as much as admitted you arent on Team Z who is down. The chances of me being on the 3 person team is slim. So you are basically basing your vote on a coin flip of whether I am on your team or not because I posted 2 times yestersday on a day when my RL didn't allow me to post? If you are as low as you say you are, no one is going to vote with you for fear of hitting someone on their own team and because no one else knows who you are. Sure you are stirring the pot, but you are likely as not to hurt your own team as you are to hurt your opposition. With your reckless play style and lack of regard for how it could affect your team I sure hope you aren't on my team.

well i'm not on team z if that is fm you idiot, i haven't let on what faction i'm in, where has that come from, see you just full of lies, why are you lying, why can't you look elsewhere? Because I have a vote on you that's why, your blinded by your own stupidity!!

iummm,... team Z= Zakalve, methinks.

[Hood's Path]

Osseric, on 01 March 2011 - 11:34 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 03:35 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 01 March 2011 - 03:31 PM, said:

It would increase our chances of getting one of them

i'm unsure, it obviously helps them because they can go after different players, but no one has been killed out of the ordinary as of yet, one lynch, one failed bet and one recruit, I would say that they will come into action tonight, the actions go like this

Guard -Find - Heal - Poison - Kill - Prepare - Replace

therefore a captain maybe able to guard and find maybe?

with the FM preparing on night one and then replacing on night two?

if there are 2 fms then we need to try and catch one today before they can infiltrate our factions

It may not affect the game early on but late on it will have a bigger effect

They probably won't know each other so they could go for the same player. It has happened before. From what I remember when that happened they canceled each other out and were forced to start all over again. If a Fm can't move on the second day it makes it very very hard for them to move at all. Players will be posting more and it will be harder for a fm to replace someone and not get found out.

no proabably. DiBs said no off-thread comms this game.
two independent FMs. and they proabably don't like each other.

Ahh but communication doesn't mean that they don't know each other. Thus the probably. I suspect that they are working independently of each other and to opposing goals but there remains the slight chance that they aren't. It could just be that they can't talk to one another probably due to the implanted metal plate in their heads. Slight I know but still this is Dibs that we are talking about. A more devious and dastardly mind can not be found. Other then Silvester the cat, and Mister Rodgers.

[Hood's Path]

Silanah, on 01 March 2011 - 11:35 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:06 PM, said:

Back to the game at hand. I see three facts before me. One people have talked about that being the fact of the size of the various factions, the other fact that people have talked about being the probability of there being two FM in this game. However the fact that I find interesting is the fact that has to do with figures. Perceptibly the figures of credit that the various factions have. This being a betting mans game I am talking about how much mula them there captains have sitting in front of them. Now it seems to me that after the slaughter that went on with Zakalwe faction both during the day and at the table Zakalwe is going to be running a mite short of funds as it were. Shorter then either one of the other two factions.

Now how short I don't know but If I had to hazard a guess. I would say that Zakalwe is a trying and a hoping to get a lynch off before he bets. Other wise he might be betting his second and perhaps even his self. I would say that is probably the reason why we haven't seen the bets so far or the flop,turn, river posted yet.

Interesting point here. It would explain why we haven't seen a flop yet.

Of course it is interesting. I am an interesting fellow. Thus my thoughts by definition are interesting. I have been ah thinking about donating my mind to science (once I am done with it of course) hopefully by then science will have advanced far enough to be able to process my interesting mind.

And with that I find that I must run. It has been a pleasure. Please tune in again same bat time and same bat channel.

[Osseric]

okay
well, now that I actually read the Day 2 scene, the game makes sense ore or less. hooray.

I agree with Silanah in the statement that Amp is unlikely to be Zakalve. at this point that is all my brilliance has to offer.

I also think there might be a connection b/w Sorrit, Amp and Rashan, hidden in that Day 1 "zen" spam. could be signalling. meh.
our options at this point are either to look for Zakalve to beat them when they're down (though that offers Jelungas a chance to get ahead even more with a precise kill or a good hand.
or look for the FM, b/c well, we all want them dead. though they are best hnted once jumped.
or we can tryto find the jelungas to cu their majority down.... all are paths we've followed in these types of games before.

[Osseric]

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:39 PM, said:

Osseric, on 01 March 2011 - 11:34 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 03:35 PM, said:

Ampelas, on 01 March 2011 - 03:31 PM, said:

It would increase our chances of getting one of them

i'm unsure, it obviously helps them because they can go after different players, but no one has been killed out of the ordinary as of yet, one lynch, one failed bet and one recruit, I would say that they will come into action tonight, the actions go like this

Guard -Find - Heal - Poison - Kill - Prepare - Replace

therefore a captain maybe able to guard and find maybe?

with the FM preparing on night one and then replacing on night two?

if there are 2 fms then we need to try and catch one today before they can infiltrate our factions

It may not affect the game early on but late on it will have a bigger effect

They probably won't know each other so they could go for the same player. It has happened before. From what I remember when that happened they canceled each other out and were forced to start all over again. If a Fm can't move on the second day it makes it very very hard for them to move at all. Players will be posting more and it will be harder for a fm to replace someone and not get found out.

no proabably. DiBs said no off-thread comms this game. two independent FMs. and they proabably don't like each other.

Ahh but communication doesn't mean that they don't know each other. Thus the probably. I suspect that they are working independently of each other and to opposing goals but there remains the slight chance that they aren't. It could just be that they can't talk to one another probably due to the implanted metal plate in their heads. Slight I know but still this is Dibs that we are talking about. A more devious and dastardly mind can not be found. Other then Silvester the cat, and Mister Rodgers.

well,
I haven't read the Culture Books ()though I probbly shuld)
but fro what I can gather, Horza works a alone. he's actually a recurring mafia char on these boards.
so, i doubt he has a partner..


ofc, knowing DiBsy's deviousness, he proabably threw in a Special Circumstances recruiter faction for old times' sake as the 17th player

[Osseric]

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:42 PM, said:

Silanah, on 01 March 2011 - 11:35 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:06 PM, said:

Back to the game at hand. I see three facts before me. One people have talked about that being the fact of the size of the various factions, the other fact that people have talked about being the probability of there being two FM in this game. However the fact that I find interesting is the fact that has to do with figures. Perceptibly the figures of credit that the various factions have. This being a betting mans game I am talking about how much mula them there captains have sitting in front of them. Now it seems to me that after the slaughter that went on with Zakalwe faction both during the day and at the table Zakalwe is going to be running a mite short of funds as it were. Shorter then either one of the other two factions.

Now how short I don't know but If I had to hazard a guess. I would say that Zakalwe is a trying and a hoping to get a lynch off before he bets. Other wise he might be betting his second and perhaps even his self. I would say that is probably the reason why we haven't seen the bets so far or the flop,turn, river posted yet.

Interesting point here. It would explain why we haven't seen a flop yet.

Of course it is interesting. I am an interesting fellow. Thus my thoughts by definition are interesting. I have been ah thinking about donating my mind to science (once I am done with it of course) hopefully by then science will have advanced far enough to be able to process my interesting mind.

And with that I find that I must run. It has been a pleasure. Please tune in again same bat time and same bat channel.

hrrm
personally, I hate heads up. so I would play it more tame if I were Jelunga or Kraclin.
Zakalva on the other hand, has less to lose ath tis point.

hmm, scratch that. he can bet his life. and then he has 50 + his second's credit.
so he's only relatively shrt-stacked, wrt to the other layers Karclin only has an extra 15 chips on him, and if Zakalve goes all in, he stands to make a decent scratch. Or lose it all.
if anyone'd want to not make any moves (unless they have a monster hand), it'd be Jelungas right now.

[Fener]

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:06 PM, said:

Now how short I don't know but If I had to hazard a guess. I would say that Zakalwe is a trying and a hoping to get a lynch off before he bets. Other wise he might be betting his second and perhaps even his self. I would say that is probably the reason why we haven't seen the bets so far or the flop,turn, river posted yet.

Those are the facts of the game so far, all of this other nonsense is merely conjecture of the nastiness sort.

IIRC Kraiklyn gets the first bet, so it might he hasn't thrown a bet in yet either.

[Osseric]

Fener, on 01 March 2011 - 11:55 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:06 PM, said:

Now how short I don't know but If I had to hazard a guess. I would say that Zakalwe is a trying and a hoping to get a lynch off before he bets. Other wise he might be betting his second and perhaps even his self. I would say that is probably the reason why we haven't seen the bets so far or the flop,turn, river posted yet.

Those are the facts of the game so far, all of this other nonsense is merely conjecture of the nastiness sort.

IIRC Kraiklyn gets the first bet, so it might he hasn't thrown a bet in yet either.

the dealer button doesn't move?

[Fener]

Osseric, on 01 March 2011 - 11:56 PM, said:

Fener, on 01 March 2011 - 11:55 PM, said:

Hood, on 01 March 2011 - 11:06 PM, said:

Now how short I don't know but If I had to hazard a guess. I would say that Zakalwe is a trying and a hoping to get a lynch off before he bets. Other wise he might be betting his second and perhaps even his self. I would say that is probably the reason why we haven't seen the bets so far or the flop,turn, river posted yet.

Those are the facts of the game so far, all of this other nonsense is merely conjecture of the nastiness sort.

IIRC Kraiklyn gets the first bet, so it might he hasn't thrown a bet in yet either.

the dealer button doesn't move?

I'm an idiot.

Still, the bets weren't posted until all three had betted, but HP's scenario makes a fair bit of sense, it's in his best interests to do so.

[Osseric]

well, it KIND OF makes sense why all three wwren't posted. what with time zones at all, if one player is say, in New Zealand, and he just went to sleep, and someone raises in Europe or the states, and DiBs needs to wait and see untill he wakes up to either call/raise/fold, it would take forever, in theory. So I can see the benefit of making simultaneous bets, based on your own hand, and not the other players. though that robs the players of some infor you gain with the blinds/bets/etc.

As for Zakalve.... the man pushed preflop with jack five... so i'm not sure Rplaying safe is his forte.
ofc, there's a 25% chance that Tiam was the second. which would put Zakalve at a major disadvantage.

hmmm, the possibiliteis.

This post has been edited by Osseric: 02 March 2011 - 12:11 AM

[Omtose]

here, catching up

[Omtose]

cought up

seems to me that the biggest wave is sillanah amp so ill focus on that

sillanahs math was a little odd, looks like she may be from the larger faction

Amp seems to have gotten a little too angry

started off as a few shots about his daft FM theory and then sil's rebuttal and amp went all hulk on us

dont see why he got so angry really

[Merrid]

Okay... I'm back.

Silanah, on 01 March 2011 - 11:05 PM, said:

Sorrit, on 01 March 2011 - 10:53 PM, said:

How would any of us know who on who's team as yet? Unless some of you have been picking up on the subtle clues I've been leaving in my messages.I'm in your faction mate, go get them!

We don't know who is on whose team yet. We just know that Ampleas isn't on Team Zwele;rjkehfjbfr ( whatever the Z name is). I posted the quote on the last page. He slipped and basically outed Gaylord as a Team Z lowbie. (Which may or may not be true) but the fact that he was attempting to place GL on Team Z, and pointing it out for everyone on thread, makes it almost certain that he himself isn't on team Z as why would he try to out one of his own team when they are precariously low on numbers. He messed up and now is trying to make up for it by being really loud and swearing a lot in the hopes that we forget

Silanah, on 01 March 2011 - 10:42 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 01 March 2011 - 09:56 PM, said:

The 50/50 chance comment rings an alarm bell here. Either this was, as Barghast has mentioned, Sil just omitting the third faction from the math (and assume each is 1/3 of the participants), or Sil is part of the large group and recklessly rounded up his calculation, indicating ties with the larger faction.

I did discount the FM. I was strictly speaking of faction. I didn't do this unintentionally. Amp is arguing like he is not the FM. I ceded that to him at this point in the argument because because really... no one is going to admit it. So i was arguing his logic based upon the assumption that he is what he says he is...a faction member. eliminate Team Z as he made it clear he wasn't part of team Z and and he is basically flipping a coin . It was rough calculation and it did take him at his word that he wasn't a FM( which I am not convinced of) . But it got my point across.. That Ampleas has zero regard for his team atm ( if he even has one). For all he knows I could be on his team yet he doggedly comes after me with blinders on. Pretty bad play on his part imo if he really is part of a faction.

I just have to point out....

1) Silanah notices (correctly, I think) that Amp has revealed himself not to be on Team Z, because Amp outed GL (possibly) as Team Z

2) Silanah tells Amp they now have a 50/50 chance to be on the same team

3) ???

4) Profit.

Ok, just kidding. It's obvious from those two points that Silanah is ALSO admitting to not being on Team Z - if Silanah is on Team Z, then Amp has a 0% chance to be on his team (if he believes Amp isn't Team Z). The only way it can be true for Silanah to have a 50/50 chance to be on the same team as Amp (who is not Z) is if he isn't Z either. It has nothing to do with the larger faction because Silanah even admitted he was just using the number of factions (minus FM), and even without his admission, it was pretty obvious.

Second, Amp is just acting weird. The vote against Silanah has to be significant somehow, I'm guessing, because if it's random then it seems like a total waste so early in the day without very much input from other players. I'm going to check up on that now.

EDIT: Started mixing gender pronouns...damn dragons.

EDIT: This edit (#3) is to clarify the purpose of edit #2, which I forgot to note here. Edit #2 was to change "Starting" to "Started" in edit #1 because, God damn it, I love grammar.

This post has been edited by Merrid: 02 March 2011 - 03:01 AM

[Omtose]

are you secretly an underpants gnome?

amp was quiet yesturday compare to today, now hes making all sorts of waves.

maybe its because he knows that after tonight he will jump to a different alt so hes making as much as noise as possible so that he can slip into his next alt quietly

Vote Amp

Bet 10

[Merrid]

Omtose, on 02 March 2011 - 02:54 AM, said:

are you secretly an underpants gnome?

amp was quiet yesturday compare to today, now hes making all sorts of waves.

maybe its because he knows that after tonight he will jump to a different alt so hes making as much as noise as possible so that he can slip into his next alt quietly

Vote Amp

Bet 10

I'm actually torn; on the one hand, just by reading his posts I don't really suspect Amp of being the FM. But I think you're right about making waves today, and he made that rage post RIGHT after Day 2 started. Nice way to deflect attention and prove beyond question he isn't low-posting scum, but also a good way to hide in plain sight....if you have some balls.

I'm undecided.

[Korabas]

I've got a headache and I'm stratring to come down with a cold. So in other words I'm wiped. I'm going to put down a few comments and then sweet slumber awaits.I have been pondering an aspect of the FM. If a FM takes over an alt and the fact that everyone is scattered to the 24 time zones wouldn't the fact that the taken over alt all of a sudden starts posting in a different time zone would be a dead giveaway as to their role? Or is there something about the FM that I don't understand that wouldn't give them away so obviously?

As their are only a few votes out for Sil I won't join in. I'm not sure what to think at the moment and I'm hoping (cross my fingers) that a good night sleep will help me concentrate and disect the info a bit better.

night all.

[Fener]

Well, I think the main question you must ask in voting for Amp as FM is whether or not you think the FM would be ballsy enough to risk being lynched the day before he switches. It's a very risky play for not that much reward. I can see some of the bolder players trying it. Confusion serves the FM's purpose immensely.

[Fener]

Korabas, on 02 March 2011 - 03:18 AM, said:

I've got a headache and I'm stratring to come down with a cold. So in other words I'm wiped. I'm going to put down a few comments and then sweet slumber awaits.I have been pondering an aspect of the FM. If a FM takes over an alt and the fact that everyone is scattered to the 24 time zones wouldn't the fact that the taken over alt all of a sudden starts posting in a different time zone would be a dead giveaway as to their role? Or is there something about the FM that I don't understand that wouldn't give them away so obviously?

No, you're right, different posting times are a bit of a giveaway, as well as difference in posting frequency and difference in speech patterns - all are indicators that someone else is behind the alt, which is why playing FM is so tricky. You have to ape the other person's play so convincingly that no one suspects you. It's why you probably don't want to replace some of the members who are very easy to alt, like DiBs, as it's easier to spot the incongruities.

EDIT - added last clause

This post has been edited by Fener: 02 March 2011 - 03:35 AM

[Ruse]

Still nothing to vote on that I can see.

I'll wait until later when others have a chance to comment further.

[Fener]

What do you make of the whole Amp/Sil thing Ruse?