[Osseric]

I just found it odd that they would send the info to me. As, how would they know that I am a human and not on Sukul's team. But I guess you gotta take chances. Sukul's defense was very ho-hum. I expected more of an outrage. Anyway, I am happy with my vote for now. If the info is wrong I know I am dead and would prefer to get it over with but I couldn't just sit on this info as the game had stagnated and I am not sure there would be an ability like this that would lie. I won't be changing my vote .

[Barghast]

And I believe we have ~27 hours left. I wouldn't necessarily call it a "speed lynch" at this point, we've already used 9 hours. Most people have probably had a chance to review the game. Not sure what other big options we're going to get today... with a reveal like that, it's pretty much one of: 1) Lynch Sukul; 2) Lynch Osseric; 3) Lynch me/GL/Someone-Else-Who-Has-Gotten-Attention.

I doubt anyone else will reveal anything of use today unless Sukul is a cult leader and one of his recruits is trying to save him, etc.

[Galayn Lord]

Well I'm pleasantly surprised I am not posting in Spoiler Heaven after last night. That Meanas result is against all expectations though. Human? Really? It was the strangest play I've seen for a while for a member of the town. I"m confused enough in fact to wonder, anyone who knows Warhammer 40k could comment on an Eldar appearing as human? As what would be truely nasty would be an Eldar whose got an ability who can CF human.... I don't know enough to say either way, I'd hope that wouldn't be the case though, maybe somone who knows the setting could comment a litte more.

So onto today, its to early for anyone to be making up stories of Osserics you would think, so I am happy to believe at this point its geniune and its a Finder reveal.
Since we got lots of time (is there a weekend break?) there's no point rushing a lynch as there's some people who haven't checked in yet from yesterday and they may have some infomation they can bring to the table. So I guess its a waiting game at this point for everyone to show up.

[Barghast]

I went and re-read the starting scene to try and find some information about the factions... here's what I've come up with.


The first part of the start scene seems like several setup paragraphs. A mining group with some guards finds "something." I believe this is all flavor for the setup and doesn't feature anybody in the game.


The narrator first talks about another "entity" that killed the miners and guards from the first few paragraphs. Note the singular usage. It's later referred to as object 57920-alpha, which is probably flavor text, but indicates some kind of cataloged, known creature. I have to believe that this is a/the member of the Necron faction.

Quote

As ordered by the Holy Inquision, I continue my observation of the Olympia outpost, unbeknownst to its inhabitants. It would appear that despite my interference, the illegal mining operation in the restricted Thermopiles Gorge continues. Since my last report, I have taken it upon myself to halt their progress, but I have found myself preceded by another entity. Said entity removed not only the prospectors, but the detachment of Guards placed in the region. Comissar Flemming, the only one that is aware of my presence here, has alerted me that contact has been lost with a growing number of outlying settlements. The Guard has been placed on standby, and the Comissar himself shall seek assistance from nearby systems. I think it is safe to believe that object 57920-alpha has risen.
I will continue to notify of of any changes in the situation.

The Eldar are discussed next. The key information here is that "several" names are named. That, to me, indicates at least 3 Eldar.

Quote

The Harlequins gathered. Something was happening. The threat was in the air, and even the youngest could sense it. As the masses gathered, Farseer Taldeer, the one who foresaw the Enemy, and thus gained access to these holy places, spoke.
“The Enemy stirs again. This time, it is on the abandoned world Vu’el’tharas. The humans call it “Olympia”
With that, the tension seemed to dissipate. One of the boldest youth spoke up, “Farseer, that system is all but locked. The Enemy cannot reach the Warp, and there is no other way to leave it”
“NO! There is. Our way.”
With that, silence reigned once again.
“But…. How?”
“When we fled from Vu’el’tharas, we left a gate. So that we may one day return. Given enough time, the Enemy WILL find it”
“Can we not simply seal the gate?
“Yes.. but it must be done from.. without”
Silence once more. Then the Eldest speaks. Several names are named. They go, to prepare. And may the blessing of Khaine go with them.

The Chaos part is somewhat confusing. Maybe someone like Kalse with knowledge of the WH40K universe can offer more info. I believe it indicates Tzeench, the Master of Change, tried to forge some kind of alliance with "her," an unnamed "bitch." The wording gets really strange... a casual dismissal? Was the offer refused? If so, why talk about it? And what is "the knowledge" being used as "compensation?" The text seems to indicate that the female made the offer, so I'm really unsure. In the end, we see that the "fleet" left through the warp. That doesn't give us any real information about who might be here from the Chaos faction. Is it Tzeench or does he work through intermediaries? Is it the "bitch?" Is it both? Flunkies?

Quote

The Master of Change waited.
The time grew near. The plots thickened, and the players were approaching their paths.
Minor irritations remained. The failure of a raid on one planet would unquestionably affect the outcome of the Ork invasion 7 years form now, which would lead to less predictable results in another 27 border skirmishes. All had to be re-worked, players re-adjusted… and all because of that indulgent bitch.
Tzeench, his raw power stretching, sought her out. The conflict between gods could turn out into anything, legions of faithful stood at the ready, thousands would die… or not.
A simple offer, a casual dismissal. Her wayward creators/children, who ran and hid themselves form her were up to something. And yes, she offered the knowledge… as compensation.
The opportunity could not be ignored.
And so, the fleet of the Thousand Sons left through the Warp. The library would be his at last, and all the secrets of the Webway along with it.

The narrator returns with information about what I believe are all factions. The "Handfuls of survivors" that hide in corners may indicate several pockets of Humans without a centralized leader (could be several Human leaders), but I don't think so... I believe all Humans are part of Flemming's reinforcement group(s). "Subject" is mentioned again, probably the object mentioned much earlier. Again, I believe this is a Necron, and possibly only one. Eldar are mentioned with no further information about their size. The Tryanids are mentioned in plural, but no information is given about their size. Finally, Chaos is mentioned again. I believe the 3 Drop Pods may indicate the Humans that successfully reached the ground, with no indication as to their size. It says the Chaos troops were forced to retreat and it is unknown how many operatives reached the ground. So again, we don't know how many Chaos may be here.

Quote

Since the last report, and Comissar Flemming’s departure, the populationg continues to dwindle. Handfuls of survivors hide in remote corners, refusing any type of contact with central authorities. Subject is proceeding towards the capital, and all attempts to stall him have been ineffective. Most recent reports suggest possible Eldar presence, also on their way to the capital.
Comissar Flemming has announced his return. In the warp, his transport has intercepted a barge belonging to the Raven Guard Space Marines Chapter, carrying several companies, as well as two regiments of Imperial Guard and up to 8 thousand civilians—refugees from Orion 4, recently overrun by Tyranids, attracted by a Genestealer Cult. The survivors, deemed untouched by the infection, have been on their way to the Chapter capital, but Chapter Librarian Constantine insisted on assisting Flemming. His small detachment has been complemented by Imperial guard forces and it has joined Flemming on the return trip. As the transport attempted re-entry, a detachment of heretical Thousand Sons legion emerged from the Warp to commence bombarding the descending transports. According to the preliminary reports, only 3 drop pods cleared the atmosphere., but the Chaos troops were forced to retreat. It is unknown if any operatives achieved planetfall.

And the final paragraph indicates that the surviving squads (Humans) have reached the capital. The rest just sets up the game, with multiple factions in play and no other assistance coming to help.

Quote

Surviving squads have reached the capital. Strong interference, likely caused by an activation of an artefact under the city’s foundations, makes it difficult to identify friend from foe, and with the mass panic among the locals, it is possible to ascertain that we are dealing with the presence of Eldar, and Chaos which restricts communications. Several panicked locals have reported the presence of Tyranids. Said rumour mongers have been summarily executed.
Faced with the suspicion that the planetary relief force has been infiltrated by xenos and heretics, I see no choice but to place the relief force in isolation, until all hostile elements have been rooted out. I refer back to your previous orders to avoid total extermination, until further orders.

[Barghast]

Finally, we have to look at the setup to see what was intended.

Quote

the point of this game and the various complications we, the mods have built into it, is to give all sides a level playing field.

That's from the rules... and it seems to indicate everyone should have a fair chance of winning. Because of that, I have to make a few assumptions.


First, no team can suffer an unlucky loss through an early unlucky lynch or NK. This means each team would have at minimum 2 members, or, if one member, that member is extremely durable (BP/LP/Escape mechanism?).


Second, no scum team is going to have more than 4 members. That's almost 1/4 of the people playing the game (from the start). If a scum team has that many people, and they all know each other, it is borderline impossible to even get a train going on one of those people, let alone lynch them. So I think we're looking at teams of 1-3 people each for the scum.


Third, all VCs have to be attainable with the same approximate ease.


So, I think we can safely revise our estimates at this point...

[Barghast]

• Necron (1)
  • There is no reason to think that there is more than one Necron. It must be the thing that was unearthed by the miners. It was mentioned a few times as a singular entity. It must be very difficult to kill, because it's VC is extremely difficult "on paper." We could be talking about something that is effectively immune to recruitment or possession (it's basically an undead/automaton, right?), immune to kills (too big/strong/hard to kill), and can only be lynched (it could have multiple LPs, too, to help it win if it gets near the end of the game and it's stuck in 3-5 people that know each other between two factions).
• Eldar (3)
  • The keyword was "several" and I don't think there will be 4 of a single faction. I think we have 3 of them and by all accounts, they are presumably, at this point, playing for a majority since we haven't lynched any.
• Chaos (2)
  • I went with 2 here as an estimate because I think 3 Chaos is just unlikely if one of their key VCs is possession. If all 3 survive the first few days and all can possess, they can win on Day 4 assuming a standard 2-Night FM Possession (again, we're just basing that off of past precedent, we don't have any concrete info). That seems too powerful. I believe it's pretty likely that at least one of Tulas and D'riss was Human, so we're looking at one Chaos that hasn't moved yet (maybe his preparation didn't work the first night, etc). I also don't think it's 1 Chaos because it would not be possible to achieve a majority with that number (one VC).
  • I considered it could be 3 Chaos if maybe only 1 of them could Possess and the other two had special abilities. However, I believe that's more of a "Specialized Team" type of faction and I believe the Eldar are very likely to fit that role. Plus, Ment's Vampires game did have a pair of FMs, so again, history indicates Ment might use 2.
• Tyranid (1-2)
  • We have the least information about the Tyranids. It could be one person if that person had some limited protection mechanism and could maybe pass on the power upon death (otherwise the faction is too susceptible to early bad luck). Or, it could be two people if one is the back-up should the recruiter suffer an early death. It won't be 3, that's too good for a faction that can recruit.
• Humans (10-11)
  • We don't know much about the Humans, but there appears to be at least 3 pods that made it to the surface from Flemming's group. Each may be a pod of 1-3 survivors. There could also be a few human survivors that were already on the surface.
  • Mathematically, if the above numbers are correct, we had 10-11 to start. That means my original guess was low.
  • We have a max of 5-6 Humans still alive at this point, maybe less if you consider Cult activity. All lynches should be considered to have > 50% chance of hitting scum (6 max Humans of 13 players).

[Barghast]

@GL, the rules seem pretty clear... all non-Humans will CF as Xeno. That would include Eldar.

Quote

c) i) coroner Finder is in effect. the information revealed will be whether the player was human or xeno
ii) for the purpose of the game, Chaos will be considered Xeno.
iii) if certain conditions are met, the CF may indicate the xeno race the player belonged to.

Side note, something we haven't mentioned, is another small rule. It indicates some kind of ability-loss (maybe the Necron or another faction can steal powers?).

Quote

iv) if certain conditions are met, some players may fnd themselves losing their abilities.

[Tapper]

16 hours and 45 minutes left.

13 players alive (you know who you are, which is yesterdays 17 except Meanas, Olar, D'riss and Tulas Shorn).
7 to lynch, 7 for night.

1 vote for Barghast (Alkend)
1 vote for Sukul Ankhadu (Osseric, liosan, Korvalain)

the remainder of you hasn't voted.

- T.

[Alkend]

All right, screw it. None of you are paying attention to Barghast's earlier mis-steps (which I'll elaborate in a proper case upon if I survive to see another Day), and he's saturating the forum with info-dumps in an attempt to look helpful and distract from earlier Days.

So, let's test out this Osseric business, as it's the best new thing we've got:


Remove Vote

Vote Sukhul Ankadu

[Alkend]

Also, we might want to get a lynch in before any potential weekend break.

[Barghast]

Well, I think I've been pretty helpful for several days... I was the only person to really put up comprehensive numbers early on and here I am, doing it again, Alkend, but you're entitled to your opinions.

I don't trust Osseric, but there's no particular reason to doubt the reveal and the statistics are on our side. And I agree that we should probably lynch before any break to have some info to mull over rather.

Vote Sukul Ankhadu

[Barghast]

Also, for what it's worth, I think Osseric's "guess" that Tulas or D'riss had some on-death ability to transfer this information is interesting. Having blood on it could indicate some kind of relation to a kill, but I don't know.

[Eloth]

Damn, this seems like a bad time for someones word against someone else's, but im going have to
Vote Sukul Ankhadu

First off it seems pretty hard to come up with a thing like that, secondly he already has votes and he hasn't defended himself as of yet.

[Liosan]

Tapper, on 08 October 2010 - 05:13 PM, said:

16 hours and 45 minutes left.

13 players alive (you know who you are, which is yesterdays 17 except Meanas, Olar, D'riss and Tulas Shorn).
7 to lynch, 7 for night.

1 vote for Barghast (Alkend)
1 vote for Sukul Ankhadu (Osseric, liosan, Korvalain)

the remainder of you hasn't voted.

- T.

Are you drinking again? Cause you math is still off.

[Liosan]

One more to lynch.

[Tapper]

15 hours and 5 minutes left.

13 players alive (you know who you are, which is yesterdays 17 except Meanas, Olar, D'riss and Tulas Shorn).
7 to lynch, 7 for night.


6 votes for Sukul Ankhadu (Osseric, liosan, Korvalain, Alkend, Barghast, Eloth)

the remainder of you hasn't voted.

- T.

[Barghast]

Today's been kind of disappointing. Maybe we should almost lynch GL or I should start a fight with Alkend or something else to make it interesting. Not too surprised since everyone is being so careful. Always happens when we get a reveal like that... why give more information than you need to when it's unlikely to affect the lynch?

[Karatallid]

Well im here again now, not entirely convinced yet about hammering with so much time left in the day, but it doesnt look like a lot else is going to happen and it could give us a lot of info so il give it maybe an hourish then Hammer if nothing else has happened.

[Alkend]

Karatallid, on 08 October 2010 - 08:41 PM, said:

Well im here again now, not entirely convinced yet about hammering with so much time left in the day, but it doesnt look like a lot else is going to happen and it could give us a lot of info so il give it maybe an hourish then Hammer if nothing else has happened.

... what do you think's going to happen in the next hour?

[Alkend]

Also, I don't think Sukul turning up xeno should necessarily establish Osseric much credibility - at this point, there's good odds (50-60%) that any lynch is going to come up xeno; and Osseric might just be in a different faction and happy to see competition get taken out.