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Korbas, on 27 April 2010 - 12:16 AM, said:
Case against Galain:
This morning I spent some time going through the game in my head. Typically I would be pretty certain in my suspicions at this point, I'm rarely anything if not decisive playing this game, but this time around I've struggled to get a good read of what's going on. My heart might not be entirely in it all told, but I'll be damned if I'm going to be just a boost to the number of innos.
So, I went through the players in my head, trying to pinpoint anything that I remembered standing out. There were some things, Sorrit stepping out after the pressure on him before Liosan caught Spite for one, Karosis' careful play also stood out. Though a liability to the scum team in many ways, having each symp only know one of the killers (as I suggest to explain Kesso's play) makes finding them through interactions with others much harder.
It was going through the players that I realised I lacked one. I didn't remember which one until I got back earlier and saw Galain's name on the list. That's what prompted me to do a re-read of his posts.
All that reads is like a half-assed reason to make a case on somebody, to me. Now, I'm biased of course, because you chose me without stating why everyone else has stood out. I could be nice and assume you have a legitimate reason to do so. But, this is Mafia, and I'm not going to be nice. Provide reasons why everyone else stood out, please. I was one of the first players to come on and put my money where my mouth was by voting for Alkend. Real smooth play to just come in and tell everyone to quit fucking off and start getting serious.
But, I digress. I'd believe that's a way to "stand out." Further, I wasn't merely a person "on the train" for Gamelon. I started it. Now, you might say that it was inevitable. But, I STARTED IT. If he comes back as inno, then I'm the guy who started the lynch everybody else jumped on. I also tried to stop another suspected symp, Omtose (and a good player at that), from engineering trains before his CF came up. If people thought JA was inno, they might believe him. But, whatever. On to your posts against me.
This post made me stop up a little. Certainly not particularly incriminating on its own. The go either way thing is relatively bland, but his last sentence did catch my eye. I have only ever had one PI this game and that was Liosan following the mods mistaken cf. I don't believe a single RI claim and it would seem to me that any rational inno wouldn't either. My immediate reaction reading this was that Galain was fishing for an ally.
Galain didn't say anything interesting for the rest of the day, but to be fair, neither did anyone else. Alkend failed quite spectacularly to be lynched and then we got Liosan's reveal.
Does it cross your mind that I don't think an inno would request a modkill? It's as simple as that. Those were the two candidates. One requested a modkill, thus he was either inno or gone, so why not put pressure on the other lynch?
Now, Spite is good on the way to being lynched and HP talk about Galain (who has not yet posted since the previous day).
That's all it takes for Galain to turn up but 5 minutes later.
Not particularly noticeable a response all in all. A little OMGUS accusation and that's it. He follows up with two sentences to cover the entire day which certainly has been more than a little eventful:
The discussion moves on to other possible suspects. Galain makes his opinions known with gusto and insightful reasoning:
Now. Read the underlined line above. Stop. Read it again. My timing is suspicious because I get back at this point EVERY NIGHT. Always between 11:30 and 12:45. It just so happened that my catch-up ended with reading those lines. I don't post "here and catching up posts" because I find them useless and a way for a low-posting scum to hide in. So, go back and look at each time I came online. I guarantee you, outside of the 12:15 to 2:00 day time that I think I've posted in during twice this game, the ONLY time I am active is during this window. It's why I haven't posted since yesterday. It's why it had been another 24 hours when Hoods Path brings it up. It's not rocket science, but then again I wouldn't suspect you would actually pay that much attention to the timing. Despite me BRINGING IT UP IN A POST YOU QUOTED.
This is Galain's only post of that day which was anything more than a sentence long assertion:
Interesting though his thoughts are, he picked a subject utterly devoid of connection to any individual player. There is nothing here that draws attention at all. No alt, no accusation, no nothing.
There's no accusation because I'd already said I'd VOTE FOR SPITE. I wanted to talk about mechanics before doing so. I KNEW I could be on before day-time ended. I also thoroughly suspected he'd be the lynch candidate or day would still be going on due to Plan B (look for the other scum while blocking) being in effect. It's not my fault that I said I'd vote, tried to discuss mechanics, nobody was around, and decided I could wait until the next day when I was actually online during MY OTHER WINDOW in case I was needed to vote. I wasn't needed, obviously.
After that there's no more posts of Galain until 12 hours later, some time after the hammer on Spite:
His opinion here is equally uncontroversial. He points out the obvious inconsistencies of Gamelon's claim (which were at the time obvious to everyone I am quite sure) but refrains from mentioning anything that might garner him some attention.
Except for starting the train on him. Nothing controversial.
Then follows the absurdly long wait for a resolve. We get three CF's. Galain pops up a little later with this post:
Again not a single mention of a living alt or anything else that might actually be challenged, or for that matter even quoted.
He follows up with this:
No really? Forcefull though this may seem at first glance, he's actually not saying a damned thing.
Galain then goes on to post a case on Gamelon. I'm not going to quote the thing here, it's post #836. This could on the surface be seen as some active participation, a real opinion piece, but really? Gamelon was pretty much an assured lynch at this point. His patchy reveal made little sense and Spite had just come up guilty. Galain made one attack on another player and he chose the assumed symp and obvious lynch candidate.
Then follows some back and forth between Korvalain, HP and Galain. They all seem to agree that they should lynch Gamelon and there's nothing particularly interesting going on between them. HP then posts a case against Korvalain, and Galain responds with this:
This is about as non-comitting as you can be without being called out on it. This I believe is also the first time he actually comments on another player who's not on the choping-block, between my first quoted post and this.
… And that's it. That's all of even remote interest that I could find Galain posting. I see all this and I am confident that I've tracked down the other killer. Consider the quotes above you and I think you will reach the same conclusions that I have. Galain is sneaking under the radar to such an extent it has to be intentional. I cannot believe anyone could play with such a lack of opinions about the other players. No, this is a tactic to go unnoticed and for a while it worked very well indeed. How often have Galain even been mentioned outside of a passing reference?
Vote Galain
Edit: strange copying error and fixed a sentence here and there.
This morning I spent some time going through the game in my head. Typically I would be pretty certain in my suspicions at this point, I'm rarely anything if not decisive playing this game, but this time around I've struggled to get a good read of what's going on. My heart might not be entirely in it all told, but I'll be damned if I'm going to be just a boost to the number of innos.
So, I went through the players in my head, trying to pinpoint anything that I remembered standing out. There were some things, Sorrit stepping out after the pressure on him before Liosan caught Spite for one, Karosis' careful play also stood out. Though a liability to the scum team in many ways, having each symp only know one of the killers (as I suggest to explain Kesso's play) makes finding them through interactions with others much harder.
It was going through the players that I realised I lacked one. I didn't remember which one until I got back earlier and saw Galain's name on the list. That's what prompted me to do a re-read of his posts.
All that reads is like a half-assed reason to make a case on somebody, to me. Now, I'm biased of course, because you chose me without stating why everyone else has stood out. I could be nice and assume you have a legitimate reason to do so. But, this is Mafia, and I'm not going to be nice. Provide reasons why everyone else stood out, please. I was one of the first players to come on and put my money where my mouth was by voting for Alkend. Real smooth play to just come in and tell everyone to quit fucking off and start getting serious.
But, I digress. I'd believe that's a way to "stand out." Further, I wasn't merely a person "on the train" for Gamelon. I started it. Now, you might say that it was inevitable. But, I STARTED IT. If he comes back as inno, then I'm the guy who started the lynch everybody else jumped on. I also tried to stop another suspected symp, Omtose (and a good player at that), from engineering trains before his CF came up. If people thought JA was inno, they might believe him. But, whatever. On to your posts against me.
Galain, on 22 April 2010 - 05:56 PM, said:
Hmmmm. If we lynch Sorrit and he comes up as what he's claiming, we'll KNOW he's RI because of the General, Commandant, Counselor line in the OP.
I could go either way at this point.
Sorrit seems more likely as of this point, but I also believe him (gut) about being RI.
I could go either way at this point.
Sorrit seems more likely as of this point, but I also believe him (gut) about being RI.
This post made me stop up a little. Certainly not particularly incriminating on its own. The go either way thing is relatively bland, but his last sentence did catch my eye. I have only ever had one PI this game and that was Liosan following the mods mistaken cf. I don't believe a single RI claim and it would seem to me that any rational inno wouldn't either. My immediate reaction reading this was that Galain was fishing for an ally.
Galain didn't say anything interesting for the rest of the day, but to be fair, neither did anyone else. Alkend failed quite spectacularly to be lynched and then we got Liosan's reveal.
Does it cross your mind that I don't think an inno would request a modkill? It's as simple as that. Those were the two candidates. One requested a modkill, thus he was either inno or gone, so why not put pressure on the other lynch?
Now, Spite is good on the way to being lynched and HP talk about Galain (who has not yet posted since the previous day).
Hood, on 23 April 2010 - 03:53 AM, said:
Galain's play has been very smooth. He's been in and out, but hasn't made any waves since earlier in the game when he posted a bit more than recently. I don't think he's a symp, he hasn't redirected from anything that I can tell or raised any fuss. If he's scum, I would peg him as one of the two named ones in the OP.
I don't remember who he has voted for off hand.
I don't remember who he has voted for off hand.
That's all it takes for Galain to turn up but 5 minutes later.
Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 03:58 AM, said:
Hopefully, that I'm sexy.
Beyond that, what do you want? I thought you were scummier than Alkend, but that neither of you were ridiculously scummy, and wanted more options. I had to go, and rather than be useless I left a vote.
I've been fairly consistently voting to try and get things happening.
As for not making waves, well, I'd disagree there. But, whatever. I've voted for you twice, so I can see why you'd be pissed.
Edit: Freudian slip. That should read "scummier than Sorrit." Obviously you are on my mind. public/style_emoticons/default/%29.gif
Beyond that, what do you want? I thought you were scummier than Alkend, but that neither of you were ridiculously scummy, and wanted more options. I had to go, and rather than be useless I left a vote.
I've been fairly consistently voting to try and get things happening.
As for not making waves, well, I'd disagree there. But, whatever. I've voted for you twice, so I can see why you'd be pissed.
Edit: Freudian slip. That should read "scummier than Sorrit." Obviously you are on my mind. public/style_emoticons/default/%29.gif
Not particularly noticeable a response all in all. A little OMGUS accusation and that's it. He follows up with two sentences to cover the entire day which certainly has been more than a little eventful:
Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 04:01 AM, said:
Also, I'll vote for Spite. But, there's lots of time left, and the two named scum with one guard blocking deserves to be talked about.
And, while I think Eloth's theory of keeping the status quo going along and looking for the other, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bushel, to me.
And, while I think Eloth's theory of keeping the status quo going along and looking for the other, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bushel, to me.
The discussion moves on to other possible suspects. Galain makes his opinions known with gusto and insightful reasoning:
Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 04:08 AM, said:
I'm unsure as to whether I can remember a post by Gamelon or Tulas. It strikes me as somewhat odd, especially for the top poster.
However, my window is fairly small so I might not have talked with them at all or been on when they were posting.
However, my window is fairly small so I might not have talked with them at all or been on when they were posting.
Now. Read the underlined line above. Stop. Read it again. My timing is suspicious because I get back at this point EVERY NIGHT. Always between 11:30 and 12:45. It just so happened that my catch-up ended with reading those lines. I don't post "here and catching up posts" because I find them useless and a way for a low-posting scum to hide in. So, go back and look at each time I came online. I guarantee you, outside of the 12:15 to 2:00 day time that I think I've posted in during twice this game, the ONLY time I am active is during this window. It's why I haven't posted since yesterday. It's why it had been another 24 hours when Hoods Path brings it up. It's not rocket science, but then again I wouldn't suspect you would actually pay that much attention to the timing. Despite me BRINGING IT UP IN A POST YOU QUOTED.
This is Galain's only post of that day which was anything more than a sentence long assertion:
Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 05:21 AM, said:
Liu Bei and Jian Yong are the two named scum and head of the conspiracy. Thus, the latter 3 or 2 __________ roles are presumed to be symps, and possibly become killer upon the death of an original named scum.
Now, with two named scum the natural thought is that there is a shared kill amongst them.
If Spite is a named scum, then there is most likely not a shared kill, barring unknown mechanics in a M&P game (probably not) because a single guard is blocking a shared kill. Normally that wouldn't happen.
Two independent killers is also pretty much ruled out by the actions of the past two nights, odds of both killers being guarded both nights are extremely poor, imo.
If that is the case, these are possible options:
(1) the other scum becomes killer if he had no role prior to this. That would be odd as we are assuming the main conspirators to have some ability.
(2) a previous symp becomes a killer in an inherited role, possible, while the other named scum would have a different role than a killer.
(3) nothing, and we have what seems to be an imbalanced game. Don't think this is all that probable.
If my analysis is approaching correct (very probable it's not), barring an unforeseen mechanic on shared-kills being guarded, it's possible one of the two scum is a killer, while the other is a different role (Guard, healer, finder?).
Granted this is all based around the shared-kill not getting through, and the two independent killers theory being so far fetched due to the night actions (1 kill, 0 kills, 0 kills).
How wrong am I? I'm serious because I do find the scenario to be extremely odd, and I think it's something worth talking about for a while.
Now, with two named scum the natural thought is that there is a shared kill amongst them.
If Spite is a named scum, then there is most likely not a shared kill, barring unknown mechanics in a M&P game (probably not) because a single guard is blocking a shared kill. Normally that wouldn't happen.
Two independent killers is also pretty much ruled out by the actions of the past two nights, odds of both killers being guarded both nights are extremely poor, imo.
If that is the case, these are possible options:
(1) the other scum becomes killer if he had no role prior to this. That would be odd as we are assuming the main conspirators to have some ability.
(2) a previous symp becomes a killer in an inherited role, possible, while the other named scum would have a different role than a killer.
(3) nothing, and we have what seems to be an imbalanced game. Don't think this is all that probable.
If my analysis is approaching correct (very probable it's not), barring an unforeseen mechanic on shared-kills being guarded, it's possible one of the two scum is a killer, while the other is a different role (Guard, healer, finder?).
Granted this is all based around the shared-kill not getting through, and the two independent killers theory being so far fetched due to the night actions (1 kill, 0 kills, 0 kills).
How wrong am I? I'm serious because I do find the scenario to be extremely odd, and I think it's something worth talking about for a while.
Interesting though his thoughts are, he picked a subject utterly devoid of connection to any individual player. There is nothing here that draws attention at all. No alt, no accusation, no nothing.
There's no accusation because I'd already said I'd VOTE FOR SPITE. I wanted to talk about mechanics before doing so. I KNEW I could be on before day-time ended. I also thoroughly suspected he'd be the lynch candidate or day would still be going on due to Plan B (look for the other scum while blocking) being in effect. It's not my fault that I said I'd vote, tried to discuss mechanics, nobody was around, and decided I could wait until the next day when I was actually online during MY OTHER WINDOW in case I was needed to vote. I wasn't needed, obviously.
After that there's no more posts of Galain until 12 hours later, some time after the hammer on Spite:
Galain, on 23 April 2010 - 05:44 PM, said:
Exciting times.
My entire time reading this I was thinking: If Gam is a guard, and guarded Liosan, why in the fuck have we had no deaths since night one? From what I can tell, Gamelon guarded Karat twice and Liosan once? In what order?
And, seriously? Town already has one revealed player, why reveal to "save" another when that player isn't under remote threat of lynch? Because he might get NK'd? That sacrifice was made the moment a roled player outs themselves, and so they must find it a worthy price to pay to get out information.
My entire time reading this I was thinking: If Gam is a guard, and guarded Liosan, why in the fuck have we had no deaths since night one? From what I can tell, Gamelon guarded Karat twice and Liosan once? In what order?
And, seriously? Town already has one revealed player, why reveal to "save" another when that player isn't under remote threat of lynch? Because he might get NK'd? That sacrifice was made the moment a roled player outs themselves, and so they must find it a worthy price to pay to get out information.
His opinion here is equally uncontroversial. He points out the obvious inconsistencies of Gamelon's claim (which were at the time obvious to everyone I am quite sure) but refrains from mentioning anything that might garner him some attention.
Except for starting the train on him. Nothing controversial.
Then follows the absurdly long wait for a resolve. We get three CF's. Galain pops up a little later with this post:
Galain, on 24 April 2010 - 03:47 AM, said:
I thought we already decided the Doc had been caught and these are prologue-ish scenes to the real-time events of the game. However, having said that, Bei mentioning two names and the theories on Omtose and Kesso could add up.
So, who knows.
I'm going to start drinking heavily.
So, who knows.
I'm going to start drinking heavily.
Again not a single mention of a living alt or anything else that might actually be challenged, or for that matter even quoted.
He follows up with this:
Galain, on 24 April 2010 - 06:55 AM, said:
I see what you are saying, but honestly I think it's better to have a dead scum than leave them hanging around, because Mafia can take weird turns. I've seen scum who've hung around manage to finagle their way out of the most ridiculous of situations because they weren't lynched and a CF never got realized.
With Spite dead, we KNOW that those who defended him or were connected to him are possible scum. Absent that CF, despite how probable his CF is, it's still a wild damned goose chase.
With Spite dead, we KNOW that those who defended him or were connected to him are possible scum. Absent that CF, despite how probable his CF is, it's still a wild damned goose chase.
No really? Forcefull though this may seem at first glance, he's actually not saying a damned thing.
Galain then goes on to post a case on Gamelon. I'm not going to quote the thing here, it's post #836. This could on the surface be seen as some active participation, a real opinion piece, but really? Gamelon was pretty much an assured lynch at this point. His patchy reveal made little sense and Spite had just come up guilty. Galain made one attack on another player and he chose the assumed symp and obvious lynch candidate.
Then follows some back and forth between Korvalain, HP and Galain. They all seem to agree that they should lynch Gamelon and there's nothing particularly interesting going on between them. HP then posts a case against Korvalain, and Galain responds with this:
Galain, on 24 April 2010 - 10:26 AM, said:
Honestly, I can see why you find Korv scummy, HP. Your quotes don't read well for him, at all. I'm going to give him and you a full re-read ASAP.
Honestly, the fact that such a major case comes out immediately after mine makes me want to discount it simply because of that fact, but I won't, as it makes sense that Gamelon is a symp. But, I won't disregard the fact that he is the INHERITOR symp possibility.
Honestly, the fact that such a major case comes out immediately after mine makes me want to discount it simply because of that fact, but I won't, as it makes sense that Gamelon is a symp. But, I won't disregard the fact that he is the INHERITOR symp possibility.
This is about as non-comitting as you can be without being called out on it. This I believe is also the first time he actually comments on another player who's not on the choping-block, between my first quoted post and this.
… And that's it. That's all of even remote interest that I could find Galain posting. I see all this and I am confident that I've tracked down the other killer. Consider the quotes above you and I think you will reach the same conclusions that I have. Galain is sneaking under the radar to such an extent it has to be intentional. I cannot believe anyone could play with such a lack of opinions about the other players. No, this is a tactic to go unnoticed and for a while it worked very well indeed. How often have Galain even been mentioned outside of a passing reference?
Vote Galain
Edit: strange copying error and fixed a sentence here and there.
Everything after my last underline was during the weekend, I was drunk, and NOTHING was really going on other than that. You cherry picked quotes, but that's fine. You have a case to make. At least you picked an original target (although, with Gamelon's lynch that was always going to happen, see: Korvalain and HP being suspected as well.)
I won't OMGUS attempt to paint you suspicious for bringing me up after others had mentioned me because I don't want to clutter up the game. And, to be honest, I'm not all that sure about my suspects right now. I don't really like either the case against Korv or HP, for no better reason than I don't like them. They are unconvincing to me.
