[Tellan]

Okay, it's the possibilities of vigs that has been completely throwing off my math. Absent them, it is fairly simple math, I think. Included, it gets pretty much impossible to tell for now.

[Liosan]

Tennes, on 10 April 2010 - 05:40 AM, said:

Um... ok.

Galain's 'reveal' is only true if Serc withheld a granted vig, because the act of Galain trying to kill Serc would have removed Serc's BP while also changing his action to a day kill the next day. Since there was one, it stands to reason he withheld.

Galain could have been a vig and just reasonably confident Serc was on a different team, considering that he got 'fingered' for being Jason. Same logic, more or less, but a heal or guard could have interfered.

Galain could have been a finder and found Serc as another team, but I suspect if that were the case, he would have revealed which faction Serc belonged to. It also makes a liar out of Kaschan.

Anything else is just a lucky guess on Galain's part.

One other thing to consider is that Galain was the leader but didn't actually attack Serc and he just wanted us to take out someone annoying to his dying faction.

This is a bit of a rehash of what you've just said, I'm just trying to work through the logic myself and maybe weave in a couple of my own thoughts.

Do we know for a fact that the leader's kills count as 'targetting' the same way everyone's roles do? For some reason I'm thinking that might not be the case, but I haven't seen anything to confirm either way.

If the leader kills do count as targetting, it would seem likely that Galain was lying. Unless Serc withheld a day kill and there was a vig. Now a vig isnt impossible, especially since we still dont know anything about the fourth faction. I'm not sure why a leader would withhold a day kill, unless Serc foresaw this situation and withheld to strengthen his claim to be a regular player.

If Galain was lying, then he was likely a finder. But then why didnt he just claim finder? Kas's reveal wasn't exactly solid, especially since Mockra is still alive. In fact, why didn't he just claim finder anyway? It would probably have been a better course of action even if he was a leader.

I can't see why Galain would lie though, he revealed pretty early in the day, it's not like it was a last-minute thing to try get someone not on his faction lynched the next day. And we still have a missing kill. With leaders being able to bypass heals and unable to be guarded, there should have been 3 kills over the course of night 2 and Day 3.

Seems to me the most likely scenario is that Galain was telling the truth, and that his NA did not distract Serc. Granted, there's no way of knowing what happens at night in a game as complicated as this so I could be completely wrong, but that's what it seems like to me.

I borught this point up yesterday and noone commented on it - if Serc is a leader, do we actually want to lynch him? We haven't gotten any leads at this point as to the identity of the mystery faction, and with her still alive moving to a point where only one leader is still alive seems a bit risky. Do we know if the names of the people in a faction are passed on again after the second leader is lynched? If that's the case, the last leader will know the identity of all but one player, meaning the mystery faction would be pretty easy to out. But it would only be safe for him to do so once he had enough numbers to prevent the members of the remaining to factions from lynching him the following day. I'm too lazy to work the maths out on that, but such a situation would only exist when he is very close to winning in any case.

At this point a lynch on one of the two remaining leaders would only go through if the remaining Jasons got behind it. I'm not really sure what I would be doing in their situation though.

Edit - fixed a broken sentence

This post has been edited by Liosan: 10 April 2010 - 07:55 AM

[Tennes]

It seems borderline impossible for the 4th faction to live until all leaders are dead with known mechanics. If the faction has vig capabilities and the 'remaining' leader has lost his earlier, then by what we know, yes, every member will be 'known' except the mystery person. But it will only take a vote/case from the leader to signal that individual, although the dying factions may use that opportunity to assess the numbers, too, because obviously they can't lynch the leader without losing, themselves.

I had already considered the same thing as you, Lio. If Serc were a leader, lynching him may be extremely damaging to ALL remaining members of the original 3 factions.

[Liosan]

Tennes, on 10 April 2010 - 08:22 AM, said:

It seems borderline impossible for the 4th faction to live until all leaders are dead with known mechanics. If the faction has vig capabilities and the 'remaining' leader has lost his earlier, then by what we know, yes, every member will be 'known' except the mystery person. But it will only take a vote/case from the leader to signal that individual, although the dying factions may use that opportunity to assess the numbers, too, because obviously they can't lynch the leader without losing, themselves.

I had already considered the same thing as you, Lio. If Serc were a leader, lynching him may be extremely damaging to ALL remaining members of the original 3 factions.

Yup, it would be easy for the last leader to kill the fourth faction, but unless his faction is big enough to block a lynch on him the next day the other two factions will obviously gang up and lynch him. Alternately he could try NK him while whittling away at the ranks of his opponents and hope the mystery faction doesnt spot him, but that's pretty risky. Still he might think it's worth it, if Serc gets NK'd tonight it will probably be a good indication that he does.

[Serc]

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

[Liosan]

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

The thing is, it isnt instantly victory for the team, it's just the removal of the outside threat. For the last leader to reveal who the fourth faction is, he would have to reveal himself too, and the only way could do so without the other two factions lynching him the next day is if he gained numerical superiority/equality through the lynch in which case he would win anyway. Before that point he would have to keep the fourth faction's identity secret and try get the kill through at night (I would suspect there's a mechanic in place to prevent this from happening), else he will deal his team a big blow by revealing himself.

As I said, if you as a suspected leader die tonight, it's means the leader(s) are willing to take that risk. If not, we have to avoid possible leader suspects and concentrate on finding the mystery player before we can get back to our in-fighting.

[Serc]

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 11:45 AM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

The thing is, it isnt instantly victory for the team, it's just the removal of the outside threat. For the last leader to reveal who the fourth faction is, he would have to reveal himself too, and the only way could do so without the other two factions lynching him the next day is if he gained numerical superiority/equality through the lynch in which case he would win anyway. Before that point he would have to keep the fourth faction's identity secret and try get the kill through at night (I would suspect there's a mechanic in place to prevent this from happening), else he will deal his team a big blow by revealing himself.

As I said, if you as a suspected leader die tonight, it's means the leader(s) are willing to take that risk. If not, we have to avoid possible leader suspects and concentrate on finding the mystery player before we can get back to our in-fighting.

Not necessarily. He could easily construct a case at that point, the end-game is full of that kind of potential, and just have his team vote with him, without revealing directly.

[Ampelas]

Well I think there are two options going forward (and tbh they haven't really changed since the beginning).

1) Keep trying to lynch leaders who are not your own, since they present a massive threat to your faction

2) Look for the fourth faction

The first option is the easiest to do, since there are more clues who to look for. There may have already been one leader dead (Galain) and through him we may have found another (Serc).

That option is currently relatively safe to pursue, since it is likely that at the moment there are at least two leaders left alive.

However, once it gets down to one leader left, that option has to pretty much stop. If the last leader dies, then the fourth faction (if it exists) wins the game, so we would have to make sure that doesn't happen.

So the second option is more difficult but has to be addressed at some point. Unfortunately there are very few leads at this point. My only suspicion for that role (apart from the people who aren't really playing very much and therefore tell me nothing) is Rashan. As I've said before, he doesn't seem to care about the game at all, even when interesting things happen, which tells me that nothing affects him unless it is directed straight at him.

[Serc]

Ampelas, on 10 April 2010 - 12:17 PM, said:

Well I think there are two options going forward (and tbh they haven't really changed since the beginning).

1) Keep trying to lynch leaders who are not your own, since they present a massive threat to your faction

2) Look for the fourth faction

The first option is the easiest to do, since there are more clues who to look for. There may have already been one leader dead (Galain) and through him we may have found another (Serc).

That option is currently relatively safe to pursue, since it is likely that at the moment there are at least two leaders left alive.

However, once it gets down to one leader left, that option has to pretty much stop. If the last leader dies, then the fourth faction (if it exists) wins the game, so we would have to make sure that doesn't happen.

So the second option is more difficult but has to be addressed at some point. Unfortunately there are very few leads at this point. My only suspicion for that role (apart from the people who aren't really playing very much and therefore tell me nothing) is Rashan. As I've said before, he doesn't seem to care about the game at all, even when interesting things happen, which tells me that nothing affects him unless it is directed straight at him.

My finder has already indicated Rashan is Pinhead, don't worry. I was surprised too.

[Serc]

Sorry, I mean "a pinhead" not Pinhead. I'm so used to calling them by their faction names, which are sadly also leader names.

[Ampelas]

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 12:33 PM, said:

My finder has already indicated Rashan is Pinhead, don't worry. I was surprised too.

Your finder?

[Serc]

Ampelas, on 10 April 2010 - 12:59 PM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 12:33 PM, said:

My finder has already indicated Rashan is Pinhead, don't worry. I was surprised too.

Your finder?

You know. On my team. A finder. You Pinhead guys have your Tennes.

[Ampelas]

So when did your finder point out that Rashan was a pinhead?

[Liosan]

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 12:01 PM, said:

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 11:45 AM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

The thing is, it isnt instantly victory for the team, it's just the removal of the outside threat. For the last leader to reveal who the fourth faction is, he would have to reveal himself too, and the only way could do so without the other two factions lynching him the next day is if he gained numerical superiority/equality through the lynch in which case he would win anyway. Before that point he would have to keep the fourth faction's identity secret and try get the kill through at night (I would suspect there's a mechanic in place to prevent this from happening), else he will deal his team a big blow by revealing himself.

As I said, if you as a suspected leader die tonight, it's means the leader(s) are willing to take that risk. If not, we have to avoid possible leader suspects and concentrate on finding the mystery player before we can get back to our in-fighting.

Not necessarily. He could easily construct a case at that point, the end-game is full of that kind of potential, and just have his team vote with him, without revealing directly.

I think it's reasonably certain that whoever build a case that gets the mystery player killed will likely get lynched the next day. Especially if there's a good chance a second leader is down. Even without a full-on reveal he's still taking a pretty big risk in getting the mystery player killed.

Also, seconding the question about Rashan being a pinhead.

[Serc]

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 01:34 PM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 12:01 PM, said:

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 11:45 AM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

The thing is, it isnt instantly victory for the team, it's just the removal of the outside threat. For the last leader to reveal who the fourth faction is, he would have to reveal himself too, and the only way could do so without the other two factions lynching him the next day is if he gained numerical superiority/equality through the lynch in which case he would win anyway. Before that point he would have to keep the fourth faction's identity secret and try get the kill through at night (I would suspect there's a mechanic in place to prevent this from happening), else he will deal his team a big blow by revealing himself.

As I said, if you as a suspected leader die tonight, it's means the leader(s) are willing to take that risk. If not, we have to avoid possible leader suspects and concentrate on finding the mystery player before we can get back to our in-fighting.

Not necessarily. He could easily construct a case at that point, the end-game is full of that kind of potential, and just have his team vote with him, without revealing directly.

I think it's reasonably certain that whoever build a case that gets the mystery player killed will likely get lynched the next day. Especially if there's a good chance a second leader is down. Even without a full-on reveal he's still taking a pretty big risk in getting the mystery player killed.

Also, seconding the question about Rashan being a pinhead.

You'll have to forgive me for being more than cautious about outing a finder on my team, especially one that isn't claiming to be being guarded every night.

[Liosan]

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 01:36 PM, said:

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 01:34 PM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 12:01 PM, said:

Liosan, on 10 April 2010 - 11:45 AM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:

Hmmm. I'm not quite sure how to proceed from here, to be honest. For all the mathematical probabilities in the world, we don't know enough about how the game mechanics work. Trust me when I say I should be dead in this game already, if the mechanics were as simple as I thought. One thing that has occured to me is, when the last leader dies, the third leader will too, otherwise it'd be impossible for the hypothetical fourth faction to win (Leader points the finger at nont-team member, vote, lynch, victory for team). Now, what I'm not sure about is, my team need a clear majority in order to win, which means we need to find the fourth faction for Jason and Pinhead to be able to battle to the death. So, simply put, Tennes, have you really been guarded? Or, more likely, have you been hitting members of your own team with finds for the past two nights? If so, perhaps you should reveal who you suspect is not on your team, or on my team.

The thing is, it isnt instantly victory for the team, it's just the removal of the outside threat. For the last leader to reveal who the fourth faction is, he would have to reveal himself too, and the only way could do so without the other two factions lynching him the next day is if he gained numerical superiority/equality through the lynch in which case he would win anyway. Before that point he would have to keep the fourth faction's identity secret and try get the kill through at night (I would suspect there's a mechanic in place to prevent this from happening), else he will deal his team a big blow by revealing himself.

As I said, if you as a suspected leader die tonight, it's means the leader(s) are willing to take that risk. If not, we have to avoid possible leader suspects and concentrate on finding the mystery player before we can get back to our in-fighting.

Not necessarily. He could easily construct a case at that point, the end-game is full of that kind of potential, and just have his team vote with him, without revealing directly.

I think it's reasonably certain that whoever build a case that gets the mystery player killed will likely get lynched the next day. Especially if there's a good chance a second leader is down. Even without a full-on reveal he's still taking a pretty big risk in getting the mystery player killed.

Also, seconding the question about Rashan being a pinhead.

You'll have to forgive me for being more than cautious about outing a finder on my team, especially one that isn't claiming to be being guarded every night.

And you'll have to forgive me for being cautious about taking something I've seen no indication of on thread as fact...

[Ampelas]

So... did you pick up on something on thread (which you're going to have to expand on, otherwise nothing you say can be believed), or did you get a PM in the night and did the maths?

[Serc]

Ampelas, on 10 April 2010 - 01:44 PM, said:

So... did you pick up on something on thread (which you're going to have to expand on, otherwise nothing you say can be believed), or did you get a PM in the night and did the maths?

On-thread, of course. And you can choose to believe me or not. What reason do I have to lie? I've already been marked as a potential leader, so I might as well pass on any information to other members of my team now.

[Ampelas]

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 01:48 PM, said:

What reason do I have to lie?

Lol.

You're right that you're the most likely to be a leader at this point, though.

[Serc]

Ampelas, on 10 April 2010 - 01:54 PM, said:

Serc, on 10 April 2010 - 01:48 PM, said:

What reason do I have to lie?

Lol.

You're right that you're the most likely to be a leader at this point, though.

For good or worse, Galain's move has me backed into a tight spot. I'm the most likely next target for a night kill (as Galain claimed to have stripped me of my BP, or if I never had one to begin with), or even a lynch. I don't particularly want this game to be taken over by our Dark Horse 4th faction, because then if Pinhead and Freddy die, we all lose. If I was hypothetically Freddy, I'd be trying to avoid people going after Red Herrings in order to prevent that happening, because that would give my team a better chance. And if I wasn't Freddy, I'd still be doing the same thing, because we've so far got no indication about the fourth team's night actions. We know every other team seems to have a finder, and apparently a guard, and/or possibly a healer. The best way to win would be to take out the unknown first.