[Sindriss]

I think it has been show repetitively in this thread that Nic doesn't do economics very well, which is why I stopped responding to that particular area.

[Nicodimas]

Europe is a more trouble than can possibly imagine Tapper. Socialism doesn't work by accounts because the people/goverment will always spend more than they take in. Even if you raise the taxes they will still spend more..
http://www.zerohedge...overeign-europe

Here is a great article for your review Tapper. When the soverign default start happening it will topple everyone just like it did in 30's. A few of the european countries will poof, others will seemingly have massive problems out of nowhere /wink.
I await your response when the EU rips itself apart in the next couple of years.



Singriss: Oh ok there you must show me how deficit economics works. I really doubt you will ever respond to this. Tell me how America is going to pay off its overwhelming debt, by creating more debt. So how does this boom and bust system work out so well?

It's cool I understand most of America doesn't want to deal with the pull foward demand that previous adminstrations have suckered them into, eventually we are going to have to deal with reality. We are very close to dealing with this fact. The double dip will occur and people will then say the depression is here to stay. Tell me how you deal with this Singriss:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://www.zerohedge...wn-200-trillion

300 billion a month in debt until we implode at this rate. I eagerly await your economic reply and how everything is all great and fixed.

Keynes policy is broken. 14 Trillion in short term debt and 100 trillion is long term debt. Good luck Singriss in your endeavor.

[Tapper]

Nicodimas, on 31 March 2010 - 09:03 PM, said:

Europe is a more trouble than can possibly imagine Tapper. Socialism doesn't work by accounts because the people/goverment will always spend more than they take in. Even if you raise the taxes they will still spend more..

With all due respect, man, swallow the underlined in next time you are going to type it. 90% of what you type about European finances, politics, economics, left and right and whatnot tends to be blatant generalisations and/or propaganda that to me, smells like neo-con shit. Sorry to say so Nic, but from everything you type about us, you show you have little to no grasp of what makes Western Europe tick and has kept us ticking for ages.

Now, it's nearly bed time here, so no real time to search for articles of my own. However, I can tell you that aside from construction work and a few banks receiving government support, my own country, Holland, has little to no effects from the crisis so far.
As I said, there are some worries in the EU about budget deficits - Greece, Portugal and the UK. Greece and Portugal never were pillars under the economy.
Well, guess what, the UK is currently engaged in two wars that eat a load of credit. Moreso, every European country is busy developing or enacting government programs to combat the crisis to keep the consumption market going. House prices are already rising again. Consumer confidence is rising, too. We all survived the crisis in the 80s, we'll survive this one, too.

Anyway, if I am wrong and the apocalypse comes, I plan to go down in a final bout of hedonistic drug abuse, drinking and sex, rather than sit and wait in a concrete bomb shelter with a machine gun and threehundred cans of corned beef - call it the European way

[Nicodimas]

Haha Tapper. Touche.

I am going to take break from these threads for awhile I think my last post made my point.

I wouldn't be in a bunker..I would be actively actively taking the world over and retraining the new population to my will./sarcasm/

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 31 March 2010 - 10:25 PM

[Jusentantaka]

Tapper, on 31 March 2010 - 09:23 PM, said:

Anyway, if I am wrong and the apocalypse comes, I plan to go down in a final bout of hedonistic drug abuse, drinking and sex, rather than sit and wait in a concrete bomb shelter with a machine gun and threehundred cans of corned beef - call it the European way

That sounds like a suitably awesome way to go. Though you got that stuff completely backwards: sex, then some drinking, then a couple tablets of X and a lot more sex. And then you stroke out and get used to shore up the dike. Also, a stunningly awesome way to celebrate 1000 posts of pure nerd

Beyond that, I'm utterly not in the mood to play devils advocate here (or Nico's advocate, as it were ) but I think from my purview of his linked pages he'd have done better to post This page rather than they typical see-and-ignore zero hedge nattering.

(yes, I know, CIA!!1112 omgz bias lies waterboarding torture assassinations yadda yadda. The IMF and OECD figures are much the same, but firefox crashed a bit on me and I'm too lazy to refind the pages)

[Nicodimas]

Jusen Zerohedge is an amazing site! The power on internet is amazing especially since they aren't afraid to tell the truth.

It's now in the TOP 10 Economic site on the internet in just two years and half years. I have based my trading on it and made a bundle, only a few more trades until early retirement at this rate.

I would pay it heed as every now and they show just who is watching that site at the White House, Federal Reverse, Foreign Goverments, etc, etc. It's really quite cool that such a unique site is allowed to exist that tells people the truth about what is going on. Once you start watching alot of stuff start's clicking about how this game is really played.

http://www.zerohedge...l-or-waste-time

Truth Awaits this way----> Are you all prepared to listen is the true question?
http://www.zerohedge.com/

[Gwynn ap Nudd]

Jusentantaka, on 31 March 2010 - 10:46 PM, said:

Tapper, on 31 March 2010 - 09:23 PM, said:

Anyway, if I am wrong and the apocalypse comes, I plan to go down in a final bout of hedonistic drug abuse, drinking and sex, rather than sit and wait in a concrete bomb shelter with a machine gun and threehundred cans of corned beef - call it the European way

That sounds like a suitably awesome way to go. Though you got that stuff completely backwards: sex, then some drinking, then a couple tablets of X and a lot more sex. And then you stroke out and get used to shore up the dike. Also, a stunningly awesome way to celebrate 1000 posts of pure nerd

Beyond that, I'm utterly not in the mood to play devils advocate here (or Nico's advocate, as it were ) but I think from my purview of his linked pages he'd have done better to post This page rather than they typical see-and-ignore zero hedge nattering.

(yes, I know, CIA!!1112 omgz bias lies waterboarding torture assassinations yadda yadda. The IMF and OECD figures are much the same, but firefox crashed a bit on me and I'm too lazy to refind the pages)

The OECD figures for debt load are generally based on the CIA fact book numbers, if I recall correctly. The CIA numbers are also a pile of steaming horse manure. They have a habit of not including equal amounts of public debt for different countries. In past years it has been shown that the Canadian numbers include all provincial and federal debts while the US debt neither included state debt nor that owed to social security. And no, I cannot be bothered to spend the time proving this, nor do I have the time right now anyway.

[Jusentantaka]

Nicodimas, on 01 April 2010 - 01:07 AM, said:

Jusen Zerohedge is an amazing site! The power on internet is amazing especially since they aren't afraid to tell the truth.

It's now in the TOP 10 Economic site on the internet in just two years and half years. I have based my trading on it and made a bundle, only a few more trades until early retirement at this rate.

I base my trading on what my left-of-sweden, lesbian broker tells me, and I'm already basically retired. Maybe it has something to do with being off the spectrum, no matter which side you're on?


Ok Gwynnie, are the IMF figures good enough for you?



So you're lower than we are, but still hovering in the 70s. Or are these figures horribly biased and wrong too?

Also, the OECD isn't 'some dude sitting behind his computer and only remotely less lazy than a wikipedia-er' If they come up with similar figures (which they haven't, they are generally higher across the board (by 5-10% in 2008)) its because they use similar methodology to determine the figures.

This post has been edited by Jusentantaka: 01 April 2010 - 01:42 AM

[Gwynn ap Nudd]

I would expect those are more accurate numbers. If those are the IMF numbers for debt as a percentage of GDP, which is what I assumed the link was leading to (it doesn't work for me), the IMF number for the US is far higher than that given by the CIA.

The original argument by Nic was that the more socialist countries will always spend more than they take in. The IMF debt load numbers show that this debt is not likely caused by socialist tendencies, as the US has a higher debt load than countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany, all of which are far further to the left.

Edit: In any case, I don't generally care to get into these arguments anymore, but Nic bringing up Ruby Ridge and Waco because some militia members were arrested ticked me off, as I think it was ridiculous and unneeded. Similar to bringing up Rodney King every time an African-American is arrested. Hence my bothering to post here.

This post has been edited by Gwynn ap Nudd: 01 April 2010 - 02:19 AM

[Morgoth]

@Nic - really, if you're going to make broad doomsday statements in regards to Europe as a whole (which is silly in its own right) at least try to acquire basic knowledge about the economic situation of the continent, instead of just throwing out baseless talking points.

Do you know which industrial country in the world was the least touched by the economic crisis? Norway, which incidentally happens to be the most socialist country in the west by far.

You know another country that suffered very little from the economic crisis? France. Hardly a model of open capitalism that. Tapper has already mentioned Holland, which managed fine. Amusingly, if you'd known anything about Europe you'd know that the countries that suffered the most from the crisis are also -in general- the most right leaning economies. But I guess that doesn't suit your "anything to the left of me is bad" fairytale.

You can of course mention Spain and Greece. Greece, however, has been borrowing far above their means for over ten years, manipulating the numbers to make it seem as if they weren't in order to avoid the wrath (or at least mild frown) of the EU. That's not socialism, that's being irresponsible. Greece has been a standing joke for years -together with the Italians- and as we know they've gone through the whole political spectrum in the last hundred years without much success.

Spain is an export and tourist based economy. One can hardly be surprised they struggle in the face of a worldwide economic crisis. Amusingly, Spain did well up until the crisis, substantially based on a very liberal immigration policy.

Who knows what Portugal is doing. I don't know anything about them. I don't even know why they're not just another region of Spain.

Germany has much stricter socialist policies, if you prefer that term, than say England, yet they recovered much quicker from the crisis.

If you so desperately want to condemn social democracies in broad and meaningless statements I suggest you first try to learn about the world outside of your own back yard.

[Jusentantaka]

Gwynn ap Nudd, on 01 April 2010 - 02:14 AM, said:

I would expect those are more accurate numbers. If those are the IMF numbers for debt as a percentage of GDP, which is what I assumed the link was leading to (it doesn't work for me), the IMF number for the US is far higher than that given by the CIA.

Yeah... whoopsie daisy. I guess the site has a referral blocker or whatever its called. (maybe due to this site being a foreign IP?, I quickied the same link to my own forum and it worked fine) close to-the-same figures are on wikipedia though: http://en.wikipedia...._by_public_debt

Though its long been my opinion you have to look into how the different organizations go into determining the figures (GDP, public debt) before you can say what they mean absolutely. (and the CIA factbook does say what they include to make up the various nations public debt, you just have to look for it on the nation's particular page and leaf through footnotes and addendums)

PS. 2009 and future figures are estimates for the IMF and OECD, (as well as the Factbook figures on wiki) though IMF does have about the shittiest website ever, (ffs, I don't want to open acrobat with every other page!) so maybe I just can't find a recenter release with better '09 figures and revised future estimates?


pps: yeah, the chart is current public debt as percent of GDP. where current public debt is determined by the 'well, these are the figures we have which are not entirely a guess so we will include them for this country, but if we don't have them, we won't for this other one' None of these three seem to go by the 'if we don't have it for one, we don't use it for all' method from what I'm reading.

[Morgoth]

I've never been very impressed by the IMF predictions, but then neither the Economist or my Norwegian paper of choice are either, so I guess I might have been influenced slightly.

[Shinrei]

Gwynn ap Nudd, on 01 April 2010 - 02:14 AM, said:

The original argument by Nic was that the more socialist countries will always spend more than they take in. The IMF debt load numbers show that this debt is not likely caused by socialist tendencies, as the US has a higher debt load than countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany, all of which are far further to the left.

The comparison also doesn't work because the more socialist countries are actually taxing their citizens and getting money that way, and (I presume, although I don't know) borrowing less - Greece et al aside. If you swipe it from your populace, it's not debt. The US prints money and lets China and other countries provide our spending dough. The US charges more to its credit card. The numbers suggest that if the US taxed its populace right now to pay off the debt, it's almost $400,000 per household at the moment...

The US is terrible about spending money that it doesn't have, and can't expect the populace to cover any time soon. It just boggles my mind that people think this is a sustainable system.

[maro]

Australia is the westernised country that suffered the least in the GFC. It's also heavily Socialised.

Strange isn't it?

[Tapper]

Jusentantaka, on 31 March 2010 - 10:46 PM, said:

Tapper, on 31 March 2010 - 09:23 PM, said:

Anyway, if I am wrong and the apocalypse comes, I plan to go down in a final bout of hedonistic drug abuse, drinking and sex, rather than sit and wait in a concrete bomb shelter with a machine gun and threehundred cans of corned beef - call it the European way

That sounds like a suitably awesome way to go. Though you got that stuff completely backwards: sex, then some drinking, then a couple tablets of X and a lot more sex. And then you stroke out and get used to shore up the dike. Also, a stunningly awesome way to celebrate 1000 posts of pure nerd

I basically plan to do it all together at once... there's lots of fun stuff you can do with coke and champagne in the bedroom. I hadn't even noticed this was my 1000th post...

[Shinrei]

maro, on 01 April 2010 - 04:49 AM, said:

Australia is the westernised country that suffered the least in the GFC. It's also heavily Socialised.

Strange isn't it?

People pointing out "look how our socialist state weathered the economic crisis" are missing the point. The crisis hurt the US the most because duh, that's where it started due to bad investment securities and an inflated housing market. Being more capitalist or more socialist had nothing to do with it.

The economic crisis didn't affect my hometown in the US at all. Employment and property values remained steady. What do I win?

[Tapper]

Shinrei, on 01 April 2010 - 09:09 AM, said:

maro, on 01 April 2010 - 04:49 AM, said:

Australia is the westernised country that suffered the least in the GFC. It's also heavily Socialised.

Strange isn't it?

People pointing out "look how our socialist state weathered the economic crisis" are missing the point. The crisis hurt the US the most because duh, that's where it started due to bad investment securities and an inflated housing market. Being more capitalist or more socialist had nothing to do with it.

The economic crisis didn't affect my hometown in the US at all. Employment and property values remained steady. What do I win?

It's not missing the point when you say that your own "socialist" state's doing well after someone else says: 'socialist states spent more' and 'a lot of states (with that particular model) will collapse/ need to be bailed out by the US'.

[Shinrei]

Ok, sorry. I didn't say that, and if Nic said that, I missed it.

Here's one for me:

[Cougar]

Nicodimas, on 31 March 2010 - 09:03 PM, said:

Europe is a more trouble than can possibly imagine Tapper. Socialism doesn't work by accounts because the people/goverment will always spend more than they take in. Even if you raise the taxes they will still spend more..
http://www.zerohedge...overeign-europe

Here is a great article for your review Tapper. When the soverign default start happening it will topple everyone just like it did in 30's. A few of the european countries will poof, others will seemingly have massive problems out of nowhere /wink.
I await your response when the EU rips itself apart in the next couple of years.

Pretty clear I'd say Shin.

[Shinrei]

You'll have to forgive me if I don't read nico's posts all that carefully.... I thought the comments were coming in reference to the debt discussion.

This post has been edited by Shinrei: 01 April 2010 - 10:29 AM