[Omtose]

Fener, on 25 March 2010 - 10:56 PM, said:

Vote Galayn Lord


(Would rather lynch Ruse though)

We have a fair while left.

I'm curious as to why you don't vote your preferred choice.

I'm also curious as to whether or not you actually think the GL case is any good, and why you would like to lynch ruse.

[Omtose]

Shadow, on 25 March 2010 - 11:08 PM, said:

Omtose, on 25 March 2010 - 10:59 PM, said:

Shadow, on 25 March 2010 - 10:57 PM, said:

Ah, good old Fener pops in with his 2 sentence vote and commentary. Good times

Cause your GL vote had so much more

Hey pal, you spent all of yesterday shooting me into the ground, so what good would it be for me to construct another case? You're just going to try and riddle it with holes. Clearly you don't think we're working for the same people.

Well, I know i'm RI, and considering that you tried to out the inquisition, you could say I have suspicions in that direction yes.

[Ruse]

Omtose, on 25 March 2010 - 11:13 PM, said:

Shadow, on 25 March 2010 - 11:08 PM, said:

Omtose, on 25 March 2010 - 10:59 PM, said:

Shadow, on 25 March 2010 - 10:57 PM, said:

Ah, good old Fener pops in with his 2 sentence vote and commentary. Good times

Cause your GL vote had so much more

Hey pal, you spent all of yesterday shooting me into the ground, so what good would it be for me to construct another case? You're just going to try and riddle it with holes. Clearly you don't think we're working for the same people.

Well, I know i'm RI, and considering that you tried to out the inquisition, you could say I have suspicions in that direction yes.

Well i think the constant assertions of there being no RI left was a fairly big give away that Shadow isnt RI...

[Omtose]

Yeah, I think that the people most likely to believe there are fewest RI are those that aren't RI.

[Ruse]

Omtose, on 25 March 2010 - 11:20 PM, said:

Yeah, I think that the people most likely to believe there are fewest RI are those that aren't RI.

Not necessarily, Shadows been overly overt about it, but with a possible 5 nights of recruiting from both watches weve got to be down to 2 maybe 3 at most.

The more i think about it the more i keep worrying that Alkend is getting a really easy ride here. Noone seems to even be considering him, he could easily be the NW leader trying to coast for now, knowing that he's likely got some recruits so most people wont point at him.

[Omtose]

Yeah, he's been awful silent.

And low posters aren't punished terribly here, because people tend to go after the people doing anything even slightly scummy rather than people doing nothing.

As for RI speculation, we have no way of knowing the watches actually have 1 recruit per night. As well as the fact that people gain power when joining, i'd say that would make them a bit overpowered.

[Omtose]

My point was more on the basis that the RI have evidence that the RI are still out there, whereas the recruits do not, so the RI will be less inclined to believe in the idea that the RI cannot get to the end of this game unrecruited.

[Ruse]

Omtose, on 25 March 2010 - 11:31 PM, said:

Yeah, he's been awful silent.

And low posters aren't punished terribly here, because people tend to go after the people doing anything even slightly scummy rather than people doing nothing.

As for RI speculation, we have no way of knowing the watches actually have 1 recruit per night. As well as the fact that people gain power when joining, i'd say that would make them a bit overpowered.

Yeah thinking about it, every other night is more likely. I think every third night is a bit too rare. Even at every other night though thats a possible 3 recruits per team.

[Omtose]

That doesn't take into account the dead ones though does it?

Nor the possibility of them both hitting the same person(best not to assume this ofc) etc.

[Shadow]

I think its naive to assume there are tons of RI left in the game. I'm not saying I'm not RI, I'm saying it's naive to assume they are in abundance.

We've had 3 dead DW, two on consecutive nights, which, if there's recruits every other night, would indicate that the recruiter for that team may be alone right now (started with Kalse, recruited Spite on night 2, both were dead by night 3, recruited D'riss night 4, he died last night). He may have 1 ally if recruits were on odd nights (night 1, night 3, night 5). Since we had a death on night 2, it's pretty unlikely that the faction started solo and recruited on night 2, so either started with 1 and recruited night 2/4, or started with 0 and recruited night 1/3/5, or maybe a combo of the two, but that seems unlikely as it accelerates the team growth quite a bit (potentially 5 people by Day 4, seems too much IMO if you assume every other night).

If you subscribe to the theory above, and it's on even nights they recruit, you have to also say that DW started with 2 so they're probably up to 4 right now, unless they've had abysmal recruitment luck.

edit: late edit, but that last line should obviously say NW and not DW... stupid day/night dark/light.

This post has been edited by Shadow: 26 March 2010 - 04:08 AM

[Path-Shaper]

I'm Back

there's about 11.5 h to go.

3 votes Galayn Lord (Shadow, Osseric, Fener)

6 people have not voted: Alkend, Galayn Lord Gamelon, Omtose, Ruse, Serc
-ment

[Shadow]

Looks like there's no rush to vote cuz everyone wants to hear what GL is gonna say. Day times out at about 7 AM my time, so I could theoretically remove my vote tonight to avoid a potential lynch should some good info come to light when GL gets on and starts scrambling, and still be back on in time to lynch him off, but I don't see any particular reason to do so at this point.

[Ruse]

Shadow, on 26 March 2010 - 04:13 AM, said:

Looks like there's no rush to vote cuz everyone wants to hear what GL is gonna say. Day times out at about 7 AM my time, so I could theoretically remove my vote tonight to avoid a potential lynch should some good info come to light when GL gets on and starts scrambling, and still be back on in time to lynch him off, but I don't see any particular reason to do so at this point.

Well Im not sure, at the moment i am slightly concerned though that your "difficult lynch" is at L-2 and is looking like the probable lynch today. This just makes me want to go the other way. At the moment my guts still liking the idea of you, Osseric and Gam on the same team. At first i thought that it was probably Osseric leading that team, but the more i think about it the more Gam comes into my thinking.

While il change if im back on before timeout and GL is looking like the only, at the moment im more suspicious of you 3, so

Vote Gamelon

[Shadow]

/shrug Gamelon and Osseric are fine by me, but until I see a good solid reason to push away from GL, that's where I'm going to assume the Night Watch is.

[Shadow]

Heading to bed, so I will be back before the timer but not by much.

[Osseric]

Still no GL thought usually he is around by now.

Ruse, why do I have the feeling that you are going to miraculously come on and Vote whatever GL does, once he pops on.

Anyway, I HAVE to go to bed. I am happy with my vote.

[Galayn Lord]

hello

im here...not actually caught up but willing to answer any questions quickly...i see people are waiting for me?

oh...and im the lynch for the day it seems?...interesting

[Galayn Lord]

hmm....looking at the time stamp osseric must have gone to bed already.
Thanks for trying i suppose.

[Galayn Lord]

Oh well...since im sitting here all by myself i guess ill start a the beginning.
Im not going to quote a million things as i really hate having 51 posts in a row...

Shadow, on 25 March 2010 - 03:46 PM, said:

Also, for those interested, yes my powers were stripped. I went from having a 12-inch wang to only 9 inches. Mrs Shadow will be very upset, you bullies .

About GL this post semi-gives it away, for me. Without getting into a discussion of PMs, GL clearly doesn't know something that most of us probably do. The only problem is that I think GL may have 4 or even 5 people, meaning he can just vote night.

Galayn Lord, on 25 March 2010 - 12:49 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 25 March 2010 - 12:15 PM, said:

yawn
all people who are not lynched ahave their powers removed-thats teh choice Inquisition makes.

I thought we specified it somewhere in the beginning.

erm.... huh?

ok well thats news to me

This is such a non-reason.
D'riss, alkend, ruse and serc were all saying they did not know this either at the time.
and since then pretty much everyone else has too.

Yet i must be NW AND a leader?
How do you glean this from that statement?
Why not Serc?,
D'riss was just killed and confirmed DW dark other and he was just as clueless as me, yet you somehow conclude i am NW leader, out of thin air.

And then people wonder why there is some resistance to my lynch?

[Galayn Lord]

Osseric, on 25 March 2010 - 05:38 PM, said:

ok, is it me, or does this whole string of posts sound like a leader talking with a subordinate on thread? Basically discussing who could be the other leader? I don't know, thats what I thought when I was doing a re-read yesterday.

Galayn Lord, on 24 March 2010 - 08:39 AM, said:

Well i think that shadow is most likley a watch member, i have no idea which watch but definitely a watch.
Shadow had some mild words with kalse if i look back.
So i could see him being in NW...but then i can easily see him in DW too.
I suppose we should just leave that decision up the the inquisition.


edit - ps 12 posts in a row....i think ill wait for some company before i post again this is ridiculous

Serc, on 24 March 2010 - 09:30 AM, said:

I'm back for a short while. I don't really agree with Shadow's play at the moment, he's being pretty scummy - especially his last post where he concedes my point, but decides to leave his vote where it is. Ruse has what, two votes? How is that the most likely lynch?

Thing is though, he seems more likely to be a recruit than anything else. If he's nightwatch lynching him will help with the balance a little sure, but we can't really tell and I still think looking for recruiters is the better option. Sorry I dont have much time at the moment to do exactly that.

Serc, on 24 March 2010 - 10:53 AM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 24 March 2010 - 09:37 AM, said:

Serc, on 24 March 2010 - 09:30 AM, said:

I'm back for a short while. I don't really agree with Shadow's play at the moment, he's being pretty scummy - especially his last post where he concedes my point, but decides to leave his vote where it is. Ruse has what, two votes? How is that the most likely lynch?

Thing is though, he seems more likely to be a recruit than anything else. If he's nightwatch lynching him will help with the balance a little sure, but we can't really tell and I still think looking for recruiters is the better option. Sorry I dont have much time at the moment to do exactly that.

well thats pretty much why i havent put my vote on him yet.
I could go for ruse, he could be a leader but then again i dont see a leader being such a high poster!

Shadow would be a safe bet on getting in a Watch lynch however.
Even if he most likely is not going to be a leader.

so I dunno...

Shadow is more likely to be a leader than Ruse, but I highly doubt either of them are.

Galayn Lord, on 24 March 2010 - 11:01 AM, said:

Serc, on 24 March 2010 - 10:53 AM, said:

Shadow is more likely to be a leader than Ruse, but I highly doubt either of them are.

what makes you think that?
I get the impression that ruse knows allot more than he lets on.

But that could just be his knowledge of the books thats making me feel that way.

well serc is one of the only people that i ever get to talk real time with...but watever...