[Thyrllan]

Eloth, on Jun 25 2009, 06:59 PM, said:

Ampelas, on Jun 25 2009, 06:50 PM, said:

Catching up, I just saw the end-of-night scene, those three kills made me pause.

Sorry if this is repeated by others after, but things come to mind: D'riss I would guess was fried for revealing. Sounds straightforward. But the other two, WTF?

It could be a vig kill, although I'm not sure what either Omtose or Karat did to attract one. The fact that one of the extra kill came out infected, I don't think it's a coincidence. Either

1) Some is a vig, doubled with a finder of some sort, so took out Karat based on a night 1 find
2) Karat was the DG who tried to infect the wrong person, whose role somehow made the infection back-fire for a kill
3) Karat was Ducan, who tried to de-infect the wrong person, whose role somehow made the de-infect back-fire for a kill.

The good news is that I don't think 3) is probable, because if Duncan tried to de-infect anyone but D'riss last night he was a fucking moron.

So it's 1 or 2 for me, which I think is good news. Even if it's 1, Karat was infected from the start, so there's 50% chances he's DG.

Anyways, continuing the catch-up

Why are you so sure Karat was infected from the start? He could have been infected and vigged on the same night. And like we've been discussing, the fact that the DG has a BP makes it unlikely Karat was the DG, unless he got hit by two kills in two nights.

oh yeah, that too. so if we assume driss was the night 1 infect, Kara could be DG, Duncan, orignal inf or night 2 inf

[Galain]

Okay I quoted everything from Karat to get full context.

Karat opens the game with a friendly greeting and joke vote on Thyrllan.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 03:52 AM, said:

Hello everybody.

Emurlahn, on Jun 22 2009, 11:15 AM, said:

And whats to stop infected just saying on thread that they are infected and begging to be cured?

Nice idea, but it was never going to be that easy.

Vote Thyrllan

For no reason at all.

Spam.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 03:53 AM, said:

Eloth's av is better than mine.

Spam interplay with Thyrllan.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 05:14 AM, said:

Thyrllan, on Jun 22 2009, 01:13 PM, said:

Why is there no speakage?! I will blind you with my intensive lighting!

You called me a prick. I'm not talking to you any more.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 05:15 AM, said:

Whoops, I just talked to you. So much for that.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 05:18 AM, said:

I'm not fluffy!

I'm scaly.... and fierce... and... and... rarrrr....

More spam about the avatar.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:18 AM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 22 2009, 03:05 PM, said:

Woo, it seems I might be giving Ano a run for his money in the cool avatar category. Hah, take that you smug account

And I get the gayest dragon in the village.

Banter with Barg about HP.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:19 AM, said:

Barghast, on Jun 22 2009, 03:12 PM, said:

Hood's Path, on Jun 23 2009, 02:10 AM, said:

There no need to fear following me in this game it not a malazan based game lol.

Are we meant to log invisible?

Is that English?

I think he's talking about Hood's Path. You know, the path to death. And how we shouldn't follow it in a Malazan-themed game.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:20 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on Jun 22 2009, 03:18 PM, said:

Yes I know the timmer is off. I am not sure how to update it.....and right now I am to lazy to do the count...

Vengeance

We'll call it a long three minutes.

More spam with Thyrllan.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:28 AM, said:

Thyrllan, on Jun 22 2009, 03:21 PM, said:

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 02:18 PM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 22 2009, 03:05 PM, said:

Woo, it seems I might be giving Ano a run for his money in the cool avatar category. Hah, take that you smug account

And I get the gayest dragon in the village.

blame the wormey dude, he's in here somehwer! and stop vooting for me or i badger you with mushrooms!

That song is so addictive....

Snake! Snake! Oh no, it's a snake....

First major content, he puts a guess in here that the heal is likely to work on SO due to the clarified order of action resolution. Check out the last part of the statement though (enlarged).

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:32 AM, said:

Liosan, on Jun 22 2009, 03:14 PM, said:

Holla! Liosan in da house!

As per the discussion, I think the order of actions is a clear indication that either a) there is no healer, or the heal doesn't work on synapse overload, since, as someone said above, it would just be too easy otherwise. If those are our two choices, though, I'm hoping for the latter.

Nonetheless, I think we should test it out to be sure. Could the first infected person please identify themselves so you can be our guinea pig?

I bet the heal does work on synapse overload. Because if PS had intended otherwise, he could just had the heal go through after. There not being a healer is more likely.

But for all we know the healer (if there is one) is infected anyway.

Could he be signaling here why he can't reveal? Because he's a healer and randomly drew the first infection?

[Galain]

Part 2 of Karat re-read.

More spam with Thyrllan.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:36 AM, said:

Thyrllan, on Jun 22 2009, 03:32 PM, said:

Barghast, on Jun 22 2009, 02:27 PM, said:

Oops...sorry.

I was referring to the avatar, which seems to be in __thatnamewhichshallnotbementioned__.

i dont thinks your defininition of that word is the same as what i thinks it is, cause that forest is bright (and sparkley!) and thats not what that word there means at all!

I'm a gay dragon, not a sparkly vampire.

I still have my dignity.

Kind of.

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 07:40 AM, said:

Thyrllan, on Jun 22 2009, 03:39 PM, said:

Hood's Path, on Jun 22 2009, 02:37 PM, said:

Ignore me I just remembered what a ninjabomber is.

From out of the trees,
ninja bukkake attack!
Stealthy and sticky.

Disappears for a while, shows up and agrees that the infected person should reveal... but then tosses in a reason why they wouldn't?

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 02:43 PM, said:

I also think that the infected person should reveal. But in the end it's up to them.

We're still missing Kaschan and Korlat, right?

Karatallid, on Jun 22 2009, 02:43 PM, said:

What does WCS stand for?

Here's where he drops a vote on Rashan for the OMGUS vote on me. Here, it's not a big deal, but later he specifically mentions the incident in the same phrasing, using my name specifically, which is highly sympish.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 03:04 AM, said:

Rashan, on Jun 23 2009, 08:04 AM, said:

Can you please be a bit more specific about these supposed contradictions? I also removed my vote for night like 6 hours ago. It was never a serious vote in the first place and it had no hope of ever being voted by 2 people let alone the 11 necessary to have it come to pass. If peoples reason to lynch me are based soley on the fact that I voted night then they are a bunch of idiots.

vote galain

for being a bit too overly zelous in voting to lynch me. I should put my vote in for someone that has contributed nothing but fluff to the discussion but I'm tired and I'm a bit suspious about how strongly galain reacted to my vote.

Rashan doesn't think anyone was ever likely to follow him in voting for night, but doesn't think anyone will find it suspicious?

And then places an OMGUS vote on Galain.

Remove vote

Vote Rashan

Now we have the first bit of odd contradiction to the earlier post if Karat is the infected.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 03:13 AM, said:

I could vote for Tellan, also, mainly because of strong disagreement. I think the infected should definitely reveal.

The arguments against are that the DG might get lynched today (unlikely, really), or that there might not be a healer (again, I think unlikely). The odds are in the infected's favour, IMO.

And if the infected doesn't reveal, they have to hope for a fluke heal (unlikely), or hope to survive to the end helping the DG win (unlikely - And if the infected dies, they lose, even if the DG wins). It would take a particularly stupid player to hope for either of these, particularly the latter.

So yeah, the infected should reveal. Whoever you are, please come out. But at the end of the day, it's up to you.

He strongly emphasizes that the infected should reveal and even lists how much the odds are in the infected's favor. But at the end, he again makes a "it's up to you" statement. Obviously it's up to the infected to make the choice, but he has repeated the same phrase.

I almost get the impression that Karat is saying that he really wants to reveal but can't. If he was the DG, he doesn't want his infected to reveal because he wants them around to build a lynch majority (unless he wants to test the healer theory, but I don't know if I buy that argument).


Here's an interesting bit. He comes to Thyr's defense. He had a lot of playful banter with Thyr earlier in the thread.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 04:25 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 11:45 AM, said:

While tellan is a decent lynch i think Thyr would be better. If tellan does turn out to be infected thyr would be my next option for sure.

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 12:16 PM, said:

The case on thyr is pretty similar to that of tellan really. Just that Thyr seemed to attempt to symp tellan ever so slightly. Ive posted the quote a few posts back, To me thats a classic example of someone that could be symping someone else but throwing in some distancing in case the guy gets lynched.

If you think that Thyr may be symping Tellan, why do you prefer to lynch Thyr? If you think they're "thowing in some distancing" then I assume you don't think it's fake-symping.

This action leads me heavily to believe Karat is not the DG because why would the DG defend anybody?


(More of the same)

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 04:32 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 12:31 PM, said:

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 07:25 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 11:45 AM, said:

While tellan is a decent lynch i think Thyr would be better. If tellan does turn out to be infected thyr would be my next option for sure.

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 12:16 PM, said:

The case on thyr is pretty similar to that of tellan really. Just that Thyr seemed to attempt to symp tellan ever so slightly. Ive posted the quote a few posts back, To me thats a classic example of someone that could be symping someone else but throwing in some distancing in case the guy gets lynched.

If you think that Thyr may be symping Tellan, why do you prefer to lynch Thyr? If you think they're "thowing in some distancing" then I assume you don't think it's fake-symping.

because the DG knows the infected but the infected dont know the DG.

Its not a blatant symping, he almost is berating tellan but there is a subtle symp in there too.
It stuck out to me... like a leader sticking up ever so slightly for a recruit.

Ahhh, i'm with you now.

[Galain]

Part 3 of Karat.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 04:44 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 23 2009, 12:38 PM, said:

bloody T names

Nearly as bad as the K's.

Boom, second reference to the OMGUS vote on me.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 06:49 AM, said:

I have far more of a problem with Rashan's vote for Galain than I do with the voting for night.

Defense of Karat's vote against Rashan against D'riss (whom I think we can assume was not infected on Day 1).

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 07:10 AM, said:

D'riss, on Jun 23 2009, 02:52 PM, said:

Here it is. Why is this questionable? Am I missing something, I know its OMGUS, but he admits its probably a shitty waste of a vote. Kara, what am I missing?

It's OMGUS and a shitty waste of a vote, yes. No, you're not missing anything. It's questionable because it's OMGUS and a shitty waste of a vote.

The first day ends. Karat comes back in the next day and immediately jumps on Rashan for his CRAZY behavior.

Karatallid, on Jun 23 2009, 02:45 PM, said:

All Rashan has going for him is the "too obvious" defence. And i've always hated that defence, it sucks.

Vote Rashan.

Defends his vote on Rashan, and ponders some DG meta play.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 02:08 AM, said:

Emurlahn, on Jun 24 2009, 08:14 AM, said:

BooHoo guys, if you think he is infected he isnt the dg. Are you thinking he is the dg? Or is he a killer? No one actually says, they just say he isnt working for the town which is to be fair a ridiculous accusation with only slight evidence.

We know he's acting scummy. Is that not enough?

Quote

Also citing the vote for night is the weakest form of case and used on day 1 with nothing better i would vote then, but its day two now and we actually had quite a content filled first day.

The vote for night is still not the primary reason i'm voting for Rashan. It's the vote for Galain I have more of a problem with.

Quote

vote karatallid

Of the three your the least active, and your "i hate that defence" isnt a case its a statement about you.

But I did attack Rashan yesterday. The things I said about Rashan yesterday still hold today. I thought that was obvious.

You think the DG is likely to have forced his infected to vote for Rashan, because Rashan is an obvious lynch choice. But why would the DG do this? If Rashan is such an obvious choice then the DG doesn't need to force anyone into it.

If the DG is smart I doubt we'll see any compulsion for a few days, unless the DG gets into trouble. It'd give us a chance to spot the compulsed, and not gain much for the DG.

Note he seems confident the DG won't compel any recruits for a few days (he's not the only person with this theory, of course). It's almost like a small defense for the DG, as if he's decided to play for the DG's team.


Here he offers a bit of advice by saying, "Make sure we look for killers, too."

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 02:16 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 24 2009, 09:27 AM, said:

Silanah, on Jun 24 2009, 04:18 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 24 2009, 10:15 AM, said:

I think hte DG would NOT bother putting in a compulsion today. There is too much risk of exposing his recruits.
But if he DID it would probably have been on rashan as he would have been the obvious lynch for today.

So if we do not lynch rashan...i suggest EVERYONE removes there vote form him.

In fact i have a better idea.
If someone is about to get lynched everyone has to remove there votes from all other players before the hammer gets dropped.
This might stop the DG from using his compulsion as his recruits cant then remove votes or they will die.


edit - added "NOT"

You are of course assuming that we will all have to be on at the exact time, just before the hammer is dropped. You are aware of this right?

Edit: Being nice: Other than that one tiny flaw, your idea is a good one.

fuck that...make time.

we can usually see who are the main lynch candidates by halfway through the day.
So the guys who leave votes on random players that more than likely wont get voted off should just remove there votes when they are on.
If you know you are not going to be around at deadline then you make sure you leave your vote on the right place or dont vote at all.
Goddammit MAKE IT WORK

It's a nice idea. The main problem I have with it is that it seriously limits our search for the killers, in forcing everyone to be on the main lynch train. If people are going to be on the main lynch train, we should force them to justify it themselves, rather than give them the excuse that they're trying to find compulsed infected.

The killers are still a threat to us, we can't afford to focus entirely on the DG, unfortunately.

Could be more DG-related defense, although several people have mentioned the fact that we can't tunnel-vision the DG.

[Ampelas]

Eloth, on Jun 25 2009, 06:59 PM, said:

Why are you so sure Karat was infected from the start? He could have been infected and vigged on the same night. And like we've been discussing, the fact that the DG has a BP makes it unlikely Karat was the DG, unless he got hit by two kills in two nights.

Call me stupid, but I seriously doubt Karat was a random vig kill who just happened to be infected. What the hell would make a vig go randomly like this? On Mockra, maybe, if it's an inno vig. I have seen retarded inno behavior from players as soon as you give them a vig in the past, but I dare hope there are limits.

And if it's not an inno action, then it's more probable the killers have two kills. I also forgot the DG had a BP, then the night 1 failed kill theory makes sense.

[Galain]

Part 4 of Karat.

Here's an interesting reaction to the 'remove your votes to test for compulsion' theory.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 02:20 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 24 2009, 10:15 AM, said:

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 05:08 AM, said:

If the DG is smart I doubt we'll see any compulsion for a few days, unless the DG gets into trouble. It'd give us a chance to spot the compulsed, and not gain much for the DG.

Thats what i said....i dont think he would use it yet.

But we should at least make the people that are online at the time of the lynch that are not voting for the obvious lynch target to remove there votes if nothing else.

It will make DG have to be very desperate before he tried to use it.

Sounds better, when you put it like that. Worth trying, at least, even if it might not work. We don't lose much as long as people only switch right before the lynch.

But yes, it relies on people being around at that time to switch.

Interesting response. Is he trying to indicate that he may not always be able to be on to remove his vote?


Here we go with attacking Mockra for HIS suspicious behavior.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 05:15 AM, said:

Emurlahn, on Jun 24 2009, 01:12 PM, said:

@mockra - what is the rush? we have 20 hours remaining and half the players havent posted today and you are putting a player on l-3?

Wasn't that Mockra's argument?

Mockra, on Jun 24 2009, 03:30 AM, said:

Wow 5 votes on Rashan already... Im all for the Rashan lynch but im not placing a vote right now as it would be at l-4 in just a few hours...

And as soon as someone put him under a bit of pressure for it he changed his mind.

Spam.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 05:16 AM, said:

Kaschan, on Jun 24 2009, 01:00 PM, said:

This is why Mafia games with living people together in a room start off in night phase.

Do they? I never have.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 05:32 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 24 2009, 01:31 PM, said:

whats the point of starting in the night phase?....one poor sod always doesnt get a chance to play?

Exactly.

Follows up the suspicion with a vote by keeping a broad field of lynchable candidates.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 06:57 AM, said:

I'm going to swich to Mockra.

Vote Mockra

I still suspect Rashan as well, but this day will be more productive with more than 1 lynch candidate.

Here's a defense of trying to guess compelled people. He also attacks Kaschan a bit over Mockra.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 07:32 AM, said:

Kaschan, on Jun 24 2009, 03:28 PM, said:

I'd even go so far as to throw out the possibility that we have both infecteds cleverly having jumped off the Rash train to fulfill their compulsion just before the train reached the station.

We're going to go insane if every time someone switches mobs, or stays on the same mob all day, or votes for someone at the start of the day, or votes for someone at the end of the day, they are accused of being infected.

Did you read why people are attacking Mockra? You seem to be defending Mockra without commenting on the actual case.

Defends his reaction to Rashan's OMGUS vote and possible fake-symping me.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 08:40 AM, said:

Rashan, on Jun 24 2009, 04:38 PM, said:

All right I was reading back on some of the earlier conversations and something has struck me as a bit odd. Karatillid twice mentioned that he had problems with my vote against Galain. Why should he care about my random vote against anyone? Why should he care what, according to everyone, an idiot tries to draw attention to?

This looks like you are trying to protect Galain who didn't need help from anyone to defend himself. I'm no expert but that at the least has to be a bit suspisous.

Do you know what OMGUS is?

[Galain]

Part 5 (last part) of Karat.

Then he attacks me for calling him out on the sympish behavior. (He's kind of a D-bag about it, too, but I still love you, Slick.)

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 09:05 AM, said:

Galain, on Jun 24 2009, 04:49 PM, said:

Mockra has suddenly accumulated three votes. I would not at all be surprised if two of them were infected... I'll have more on this in a few minutes. Mockra's behavior is definitely suspicious, but it's not nearly as suspicious as Rashan's overall behavior.

Like I said earlier, we're going to go insane if every time someone switches mobs, or stays on the same mob all day, or votes for someone at the start of the day, or votes for someone at the end of the day, they are accused of being infected.

And if you find Mockra's behavious suspicious, why do you think the people voting for him are likely to be infected, rather than voting for him because they find him suspicious?

Also, did you see the brief discussion earlier about whether the DG would be likely to compulse anyone today? We concluded probably not. Do you disagree?

Galain, on Jun 24 2009, 04:49 PM, said:

@Rashan, I actually saw the exact same thing about Karat and was wondering why he was symping me. Yes, he says it's about the OMGUS vote but why go out of his way to say my name each time? And you're also right, I do not need help defending myself.

What?

Firstly, in what way am I symping you? You say yourself that you don't need help, you've never been in any danger, why would I bother?

Secondly, What exactly do you mean by "why go out of his way to say my name each time?"? Obviously, I said your name to point out the event I was talking about. In what way is this going out of my way? And how else should I have phrased it? "I have a problem with Rashan's OMGUS vote on a certain player, whose name begins with G and has 6 letters"? This is one of the stupidest accusations i've seen in mafia, and i've seen some really stupid ones.

Thirdly, "he says it's about the OMGUS vote"? It is about the OMGUS vote! I don't see how I could be clearer. Do you find OMGUS votes suspicious, or not? If so, I don't see why you have a problem with it. If not, why not?

Comments on suspicious behavior again.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 09:46 AM, said:

Rashan, on Jun 24 2009, 05:38 PM, said:

What possible reason would you have to comment on an OMGUS vote on someone other than yourself? Twice?

Because it's suspicious behaviour? That's what we do in mafia, we look for suspicious behaviour and point it out.

Edit for clarity.

Here's his last key post.

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 01:04 PM, said:

I think we'll struggle to win this. It's the idea of compulsion that's the problem.

Say we push to lynch a scum. Obviously, lynching a scum is never easy, and their teammates/symp will make sure there's a competing lynch. And obviously, they will try to paint the people voting for their teammate as infected. Now, a very easy way to prove this not true is to remove vote, and a player wanting to prove themself not under compulsion will do this. Like Silanah just did. Which releases the pressure. Anyone who refuses to remove vote paints themselves as infected in everyone's eyes.

The scum have such an easy way out. And the DG/infected can play at this, too, although with less effect (lack of communication).

The only solution I can think of is to not talk about compulsion unless you actually have some evidence that it's happening. And no, people voting for someone you don't think is guilty is not evidence. Most people think that compulsion today is unlikely, so why is it being suggested so much? People can disagree without being under compulsion.

A massive defense against compulsion discussion. There's merit in it, but it also REALLY helps the infected out by not forcing them to become visible. Again, defending himself against the future?

Karatallid, on Jun 24 2009, 02:03 PM, said:

About 10.5 hours, I believe.

I'm leaving, i'll be back just before the deadline.

Final post.

Karatallid, on Jun 25 2009, 12:25 AM, said:

Gamelon, on Jun 25 2009, 08:11 AM, said:

ooooooh shit i see 48 minutes left...

karat refuse to remove his vote ?

damn i better catch up fast!!!

Well, I said i'd be back before the lynch....

But does it matter, with D'riss admitting infected and not voting?

Note he points out D'riss is still alive. Again, he's defending the lack of compulsion.

[Galain]

Overall, I think there's enough evidence to suggest Karat was infected before Day 1, wanted to reveal, but couldn't.

[Ampelas]

Thyrllan, on Jun 25 2009, 06:59 PM, said:

oh and if its 1) Karat has a 33%, not 50: Duncan, DG or the starting inf would all turn up infected

Hmm, forgot about this, sorry. So the finder/vig makes no sense indeed, because if he's smart he would ignore the infected finds and keep his vig for a killer find.

Well then, we'll have to wait one more night to be sure, but it seems to me the killers might have 2 kills, or that there is another killing faction (SK?) around.

[Thyrllan]

good sumary galain, I can definitely see it (hindsights 20/20 as they say.) though i very much wonder if he really was also a/the town healer or not too

if he was the original inf, then that makes the NAs very interesting. perhaps scum have 1 NK and the DG decided to just wax both his infs for some reason, perhaps felt Kara was getting too close to revealing.

or the DG hoping to make ti look like Kara was DG so he can avoid as much attention as possible

since after that summary kara looks a lot more like inf and i dont really think there as much reason for DG to SO him, then its quite possible he was a second scum kill, so if someone guarded on night 1, guard that person again!!

[Ampelas]

Yesterday, Karatallid had an obsession, which was voting Rashan for his vote on Galain. That made him stand out quite a bit at a point.

I think this could be seen as symping Galain, but that's massively obvious. It could also be seen as trying to save Mockra, he was most vocal when the train shifted from Rashan to Mockra.

But I can't think of why an infected would want to "save" anyone, and if Karat was DG, the only one he would like to save would be one of his infected, but that obvious?

I don't know what to say, but I think Mockra is a good lynch target in any case, independant of Karat's actions.

[Eloth]

Thyrllan, on Jun 25 2009, 07:01 PM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 25 2009, 06:59 PM, said:

Ampelas, on Jun 25 2009, 06:50 PM, said:

Catching up, I just saw the end-of-night scene, those three kills made me pause.

Sorry if this is repeated by others after, but things come to mind: D'riss I would guess was fried for revealing. Sounds straightforward. But the other two, WTF?

It could be a vig kill, although I'm not sure what either Omtose or Karat did to attract one. The fact that one of the extra kill came out infected, I don't think it's a coincidence. Either

1) Some is a vig, doubled with a finder of some sort, so took out Karat based on a night 1 find
2) Karat was the DG who tried to infect the wrong person, whose role somehow made the infection back-fire for a kill
3) Karat was Ducan, who tried to de-infect the wrong person, whose role somehow made the de-infect back-fire for a kill.

The good news is that I don't think 3) is probable, because if Duncan tried to de-infect anyone but D'riss last night he was a fucking moron.

So it's 1 or 2 for me, which I think is good news. Even if it's 1, Karat was infected from the start, so there's 50% chances he's DG.

Anyways, continuing the catch-up

Why are you so sure Karat was infected from the start? He could have been infected and vigged on the same night. And like we've been discussing, the fact that the DG has a BP makes it unlikely Karat was the DG, unless he got hit by two kills in two nights.

oh yeah, that too. so if we assume driss was the night 1 infect, Kara could be DG, Duncan, orignal inf or night 2 inf

I said exactly that earlier today, hence my comment about there being a 50% chance he was a vanilla infected, 25% DG, 25% Duncan.

Ampelas, on Jun 25 2009, 07:06 PM, said:

Eloth, on Jun 25 2009, 06:59 PM, said:

Why are you so sure Karat was infected from the start? He could have been infected and vigged on the same night. And like we've been discussing, the fact that the DG has a BP makes it unlikely Karat was the DG, unless he got hit by two kills in two nights.

Call me stupid, but I seriously doubt Karat was a random vig kill who just happened to be infected. What the hell would make a vig go randomly like this? On Mockra, maybe, if it's an inno vig. I have seen retarded inno behavior from players as soon as you give them a vig in the past, but I dare hope there are limits.

And if it's not an inno action, then it's more probable the killers have two kills. I also forgot the DG had a BP, then the night 1 failed kill theory makes sense.

I dunno, some people expressed a bit of suspicion regarding Karat. With Mockra looking like the obvious lynch for today, a vig may have looked elsewhere for a target.

I think the killers having two kills is slightly less likely than someone being vigged and infected on the same night. Obviously the number of kills tonight will give us a bit of a better idea.

[Galain]

BTW, for today...

WCS -- Tellan, Serc, Rashan, D'riss, Karat, Omtose all townies (Karat was Duncan or the healer)
- DG still alive with 1-2 recruits (2-3 people)
- All scum still alive (2-4 people?)
- 15 players left, 4-7 are not town

BCS -- Lot of stuff's possible. Maybe D'riss was infected scum. Maybe Karat was the DG.
- Would probably put us at 15 players left, 3-4 players not town.

Although I think we should approach this as WCS, I think there's a lot of evidence that Karat was not Duncan (or the DG, for that matter).

Also,
@ Eloth, I agree that it is MOST likely that scum have one kill and a vig probably hit Karat seeing as how he was suspicious but probably not enough to get lynched today over Mockra... and I am NOT saying we should just auto-lynch Mockra, either.

This post has been edited by Galain: 25 June 2009 - 05:33 PM

[Eloth]

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:07 PM, said:

Overall, I think there's enough evidence to suggest Karat was infected before Day 1, wanted to reveal, but couldn't.

It does seem to be the most likely scenario. At least there's nothing that seems to suggest he was Duncan, which is good.

[Galain]

Eloth, on Jun 25 2009, 10:26 AM, said:

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:07 PM, said:

Overall, I think there's enough evidence to suggest Karat was infected before Day 1, wanted to reveal, but couldn't.

It does seem to be the most likely scenario. At least there's nothing that seems to suggest he was Duncan, which is good.

Yes but it's bad for the reason I earlier suggested. I hate continuing to speculate about this on thread but it was already brought back up that there is some evidence that Karat WAS the healer.

[Thyrllan]

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:23 PM, said:

BTW, for today...

WCS -- Tellan, Serc, Rashan, D'riss, Karat, Omtose all townies (Karat was Duncan)
- DG still alive with 1 recruit (2 people)
- All scum still alive (2-4 people?)
- 15 players left, 4-6 are not town

BCS -- Lot of stuff's possible. Maybe D'riss was infected scum. Maybe Karat was the DG.
- Would probably put us at 15 players left, 3-4 players not town.

Although I think we should approach this as WCS, I think there's a lot of evidence that Karat was not Duncan (or the DG, for that matter).

Also,
@ Eloth, I agree that it is MOST likely that scum have one kill and a vig probably hit Karat seeing as how he was suspicious but probably not enough to get lynched today over Mockra... and I am NOT saying we should just auto-lynch Mockra, either.

actually wcs the DG would have 2 recruits now, started with one, recruited driss (died) and recruited another just last night

[Eloth]

Thyrllan, on Jun 25 2009, 07:28 PM, said:

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:23 PM, said:

BTW, for today...

WCS -- Tellan, Serc, Rashan, D'riss, Karat, Omtose all townies (Karat was Duncan)
- DG still alive with 1 recruit (2 people)
- All scum still alive (2-4 people?)
- 15 players left, 4-6 are not town

BCS -- Lot of stuff's possible. Maybe D'riss was infected scum. Maybe Karat was the DG.
- Would probably put us at 15 players left, 3-4 players not town.

Although I think we should approach this as WCS, I think there's a lot of evidence that Karat was not Duncan (or the DG, for that matter).

Also,
@ Eloth, I agree that it is MOST likely that scum have one kill and a vig probably hit Karat seeing as how he was suspicious but probably not enough to get lynched today over Mockra... and I am NOT saying we should just auto-lynch Mockra, either.

actually wcs the DG would have 2 recruits now, started with one, recruited driss (died) and recruited another just last night

This is true and would be the case if Karat was Duncan.

[Galain]

Thyrllan, on Jun 25 2009, 10:28 AM, said:

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:23 PM, said:

BTW, for today...

WCS -- Tellan, Serc, Rashan, D'riss, Karat, Omtose all townies (Karat was Duncan)
- DG still alive with 1 recruit (2 people)
- All scum still alive (2-4 people?)
- 15 players left, 4-6 are not town

BCS -- Lot of stuff's possible. Maybe D'riss was infected scum. Maybe Karat was the DG.
- Would probably put us at 15 players left, 3-4 players not town.

Although I think we should approach this as WCS, I think there's a lot of evidence that Karat was not Duncan (or the DG, for that matter).

Also,
@ Eloth, I agree that it is MOST likely that scum have one kill and a vig probably hit Karat seeing as how he was suspicious but probably not enough to get lynched today over Mockra... and I am NOT saying we should just auto-lynch Mockra, either.

actually wcs the DG would have 2 recruits now, started with one, recruited driss (died) and recruited another just last night

Huh? We had two infected CFs yesterday.

Day 1 DG + Karat
Day 2 DG + Karat + Driss
Day 3 DG + ??

edit: Oh wait, Eloth's right. If Karat was Duncan DG has 2.

This post has been edited by Galain: 25 June 2009 - 05:32 PM

[Hood's Path]

Ok mockra had the vote against Rashan that looks like he panicked.

Kaschan seemed to get lively in stopping the Mockra lynch as best as he could.

Which suggests they might be paired.

I'm still not sure on Eloth?

Has GL really posted anything of worth or is it just random spam, cause I asked if he had any theories and he said in reply that "morgoth was a woman and vengeance gets enough action that the wife will be pregnant despite all the birth control." that was the general idea of what he said.

[Thyrllan]

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:31 PM, said:

Thyrllan, on Jun 25 2009, 10:28 AM, said:

Galain, on Jun 25 2009, 07:23 PM, said:

BTW, for today...

WCS -- Tellan, Serc, Rashan, D'riss, Karat, Omtose all townies (Karat was Duncan)
- DG still alive with 1 recruit (2 people)
- All scum still alive (2-4 people?)
- 15 players left, 4-6 are not town

BCS -- Lot of stuff's possible. Maybe D'riss was infected scum. Maybe Karat was the DG.
- Would probably put us at 15 players left, 3-4 players not town.

Although I think we should approach this as WCS, I think there's a lot of evidence that Karat was not Duncan (or the DG, for that matter).

Also,
@ Eloth, I agree that it is MOST likely that scum have one kill and a vig probably hit Karat seeing as how he was suspicious but probably not enough to get lynched today over Mockra... and I am NOT saying we should just auto-lynch Mockra, either.

actually wcs the DG would have 2 recruits now, started with one, recruited driss (died) and recruited another just last night

Huh? We had two infected CFs yesterday.

Day 1 DG + Karat
Day 2 DG + Karat + Driss
Day 3 DG + ??

edit: Oh wait, Eloth's right. If Karat was Duncan DG has 2.

but if Karat was really Duncan he CFs as infected so wcs its actually

Day 1 DG + ?1
Day 2 DG + ?1 + Driss
Day 3 DG + ?1 + Driss + ?2